1. PC gaming is dead! Now wait a second …By Teut Weidemann, please do not share without permission – email@example.com
2. Who am I: Teut Weidemann• Working on Games since 1981• Professional since 1987• Over 70 titles on C64, Amiga, Atari ST, PC, Consoles, Online …• Specialised since 1997 on online games• Jobs: Graphic Artist, Programmer, Designer, Development Director, CEO, CTO• Now Senior Online Games Supervisor @ Ubisoft Blue Byte• Also teacher for IM at Film Academy Ludwigsburg• Companies: Rainbow Arts, Softgold, Lucasfilm Games, Microsoft, Wings Simulations, Jowood, CDV, Ubisoft
4. My „Serious Games“ phase … And some more …
5. Teut‘s Classics … 1997-2009 And 20+ more
6. New … 2010 - ???? TheSettlersOnline.com www.nadirim.com Nadirim MMO RPG for Digital Reality/Docler in Hungary The Settlers Online for Blue Byte Ubisoft Both free to play Both browser based, Flash/Flex ‘client’ + X unannounced titles by Blue Byte Ubisoft  Listen to Chris & Benedikts talk tomorrow!
7. The Settlers Online
8. In 2006 I forecastedFrom my talk „Supermodells and Computer Games“ on this conference:• In 5-10 years PC single player games will be a niche market• MMOG‘s will be mass market on all formats (PC, Console, Mobile, PDAs, ipods)-> The single player PC market is dying (finally!)
9. The PC is dead Jim! 4 times now?
10. The mid 90’s War (1994-1996)Ps1 – N64 - Saturn CD-Rom + 3Dfx hardware
11. The mid 2000 War (2000-2002)Ps2 – Gamecube - XBox Internet + Team based online
12. The 2005 War (2005-2007)Ps3 – Xbox 360 - Wii MMO’s + Online + 1st f2p’s
13. The 2012 War (2012-2014)Ps4? – Xbox 720? - WiiU Social Games + f2p ? ?
14. But is that all? Did nothing else change?Lets review the past couple of months
15. Minecraft•Single person mega hit – who would have thought?•The only game Lego got worried about•Gave his 2011 money to his employees•25m downloads•80 million US$ in sales•Shows clearly the Indie trend & power•Note: this is from Scandinavia
16. World of Tanks•Free to play•20+ million registered users•Over 500.000 PCU – after only 2 years•20-25% Conversion Rate•Making 10+ Million US$ - per month•Note: this was a small developer before WoT•Note²: this is from Russia
17. League of Legends by Riot games(owned by Tencent)•Free to play•33m+ registered users•11.5m MAU, 4.2m DAU•1.3m PCU (500k PCU in China)•10.5m hours game play per day•#1 game in Korea (yes, it beat SC!)•This game will beat WoW this year!•And is made by “fans”
18. Years of Cyber Warfare•Sony hacked•Hacks & DOS vs.Gamigo, Computec, Police, CIA, IFPI, Department ofJustice, WoW, Fox News etc•Lieferheld.de DOS‘s Lieferando (thats Pizza!)•Shows vulnerability of the digital age
19. Angry Birds•700m+ downloads•200m daily active users•10 billion ads served per month•17m fans on Facebook•AB Rio sold 1.6m on first day•2 Theme parks opening soon•Movie, TV, Plush toys, T-Shirts, making millions/m•Wtf, AB Space was launched on the ISS!•Angry Birds will beat Mario this year
20. Draw Something•35m downloads•15m daily active users•250.000 US$ revenue – per day!•Sold for 200m fucking US$ to Zynga
21. Who gave this man 3m US$ to play with?Kickstarter•Crowd funding is here•Pre Release customer involvement•Without need of a publisher•Without licking investors•Currently Retro trend•Anything can be funded • even Chris H’s Turrican Music
22. iPad – tablet computing•Sold more first weekend than 3DS lifetime•Destroyed Netbooks•Destroys notebook market share•Power of an Xbox360 on 8h battery•This is a gaming device*
23. Digital Publishing - Finally here•Steam has 70% core market share •40m users•Vavle founder is Forbes top 500 now•EA opens Origin•Amazon opens digital downloads•App store largest mobile digital store of theworld•App Store makes 4b per quarter revenue
25. Digital Age drives people•Fastest growing political party in Germany•13% would vote for them now•The “Greens” taught Germany ecologicalthinking•The “Pirates” will teach Digital thinking•The digital age has reached everyone
26. What comes next?Analyzing Market Situation
27. Situation: Video Games• Declining Revenue• Current Generation shows age: 6 years• New consoles announced• “Consoles are dead”? – Really?• Normal “revenue hole” between console cycles• But will they compete? *NPD Data US annual sales in billion US$
28. Situation: Video Games • Investors not confident in the future of large publishers • Sony/Microsoft show losses since 10 years in• “Move” continued? console division• “Online Games”? • Nintendo in trouble• Set Top Box? • Retail prices dropping – Xbox usage already there • Retail chains in trouble• Next Gen online only? *from Ben Cousins GDC 2012 talk
29. Situation: PC Games*• Social Games: Investors • FB: 483m DAU, 50% moved off already gaming• AAA title sales low • Piracy?• F2p at its peak? • Will f2p kill retail?• Indies – second coming? • Can we repeat Minecraft?• Can next Gen steal • Is the iPad a threat? MMO’s?• Does Retail die? • Digital Download compensates *Games running on personal computers
30. Situation: Publishers 2008 Company age in years *from Ben Cousins GDC 2012 talk
31. Situation: Publishers 2012 *from Ben Cousins GDC 2012 talk
32. What changed?Attackers of the market
33. Social Games• Facebook Games are in 2nd • In Japan: The top Social Generation companies revenue is larger – 3rd gen: Core games coming than the total console market• Facebook has 901m MAU • In Japan top social games are – Get this? Nearly 1.000.000.000!! on mobile!• 50% login daily – to play • Don’t forget the other top• FB did 1.058b revenue social networks Q1/2012 – vKontakte (RU) – Renren (CN)• FB gaming is still in its infancy – Zing (VN) – CyWorld (KR) – Wretch (TW) – Mixi (JP)
34. Free to Play• Major trend on all • Browser Games =EU platforms* • Browser Games in USA=FB – Minus console • FB ≠ BG ≠ Client• F2p iOS revenue is larger than app sales revenue• F2p on PC will soon be is +100% AAA quality• Can $59 retail compete? 14,2 28,4 2010 2015 WorldWide Online Market *Source: PWC market forecasts
35. SmartphonesFastest growing consumer technology in human historyPrimary Internet Access Point for major countries (Asia)(40% of all Smartphone activations are coming from China)Games most popular
36. iGaming*These are gaming devices315 million iOS devices soldMost Popular Categories1. Games (105292 active Apps)2. Books (61967 active Apps)3. Entertainment (61009 active Apps)4. Education (58789 active Apps)5. Lifestyle (50123 active Apps)17% of all active apps are games74% of top 100 grossing apps are gamesPWC forecasts “Wireless Gaming” will double until 2015
37. Market forecastsWHAT DOES THIS CHANGE?
38. The future games market?* *In Audience size, not revenue iOS 350 million “Social” Gaming PC f2p 1 billion500 million* AAA Console 60m Dead: Handheld
39. The future games market revenue?* *Wild Teut estimates “Social” 1000m Gaming iOS 300m“Reach” PC f2p 200m AAA 60m Console $0.50 $15 $30 $60 “ARPU”
40. Is the PC dead? “Social” AAA iOS PC f2p Gaming ConsoleA report from the PC Gaming Alliance The PCGA noted that free-to-play games(PCGA) suggests the industry is alive and (ironically) produced a sizeable portion of thekicking with record software sales of$18.6 billion in 2011, a 15% increase over PC* revenue, with Zynga reporting $1.1 billion alone. Chinese outfit Tencent specializes in2010. Thats partly attributed to free-to-play titles and when 2011s figures areChina, which is growing nearly twice as fully crunched, its expected to surpassfast as the global market, generating $6 Activision Blizzard as the company whichbillion for a 27% jump on-year generates the most revenue from PC games
41. Long live the PC! Errr sort of … oh lolz
42. Options stated are my own, not to be connected in any way with any of my clientsContact: Teut986@gmail.comQUESTIONS?