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ABテストと検定
篠原照樹
篠原照樹
• Web系企業で、Hadoop、Hive基盤整備を
やっています。
• 作ったものとか
– Hive Color http://hivecolor.com
– JKマーチ http://jkmarch.com
– えごったー http://www.egotter.com
• 面白い人探してます!
2
本日のテーマ:
ABテストと検定
• ABテスト
– AパターンとBパターンを実際に試して、結果が
良い方を選ぶ
– メリット:本当に数値が高い方を客観的に選べる
• 検定
– 起きた結果が偶然なのかを判断する
• ABテストだけだと簡単なのに、検定も加わ
ると途端に難しくなる?
3
今日伝えたいこと:
検定の考え方は身近に存在する
• 人は誰でも、無意識のうちに検定っぽい
思考をしている。
• 検定 = 難しい、自分には縁遠い、という
のは誤解かも。
• 身近な、自然に使われている検定(っぽい
思考)の例を紹介します。
4
ABテスト 実演
A) あったらいいな をカタチにする
B) 無限の可能性をあなたに
• 好きな方のキャッチコピーを選んでください。
A)は小林製薬株式会社様、B)はアドビシステムズ様のキャッチコピーです。
画像は無料学習サイトShareWis様のサイトから引用させていただきました。
5
• 実際に試して決める点が重要です
• ただの多数決とは違います!
• 普通はWebとかでやります
検定 実演
A) あったらいいな をカタチにする
– ○票
B) 無限の可能性をあなたに
– □票
• この結果は偶然でしょうか? それとも、本当に優
れているのでしょうか?
• 答え
偶然です。どちらか一方が優れているとは言い切
れません。(有意水準5%、合計3票、の場合)
6
簡単な検定はたったこれだけです
• 【再掲】
検定とは、起きた結果が偶然なのかを判
断する手法のこと。
• 「偶然起きる」とはどういうことか、さ
らに実例を紹介します。
7
身近な検定の例
A) 3打席1安打の3割バッター
B) 300打席100安打の3割バッター
• すごいのはどっち?
– 後者がすごい
– 前者は偶然かもだけど、後者は偶然ではあり得ない
• R?の式
binom.test(100?, 300?, p = 0.5, alternative =
“two.sided”, conf.level = 0.95)
• p値? = 8.015e-09 < 0.05、よって有意差あり
野球の打席は確率50%の二者択一じゃないけど一例として使いました。 8
ABテストの検定
• ABテストの結果、Aが100回、Bが120回クリックされた。
• Bの方が良いと言える?
• Rの式
binom.test(100, 220, p = 0.5, alternative = "two.sided", conf.level =
0.95)
• p値 = 0.20 > 0.05、よって有意差なし
• ワンポイント!
1,000と1,200だとp値 = 2.182e-05 < 0.05、よって、有意差があると
言えます。
偏りがあるほどサンプル数が少なくて済みますが、どれだけサンプ
ル数が多くても有意差が認められないこともあります。
9
まとめ
• 検定が簡単なことを示すために、身近な?例
をいくつか計算しました。
•
• もっと勉強したい方に
おすすめの書籍
• ABテストと検定についてもうちょい詳しく書いてます。
http://hivecolor.com/id/102
10
篠原照樹
• Web系企業で、Hadoop、Hive基盤整備を
やっています
• 作ったものとか
– Hive Color http://hivecolor.com
– JKマーチ http://jkmarch.com
– えごったー http://www.egotter.com
• 面白い人探してます!
11

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Abテストと検定