Obamacare in Pictures Visualizing the Effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Kathryn NixSpring 2012 John W. Fleming
Obamacare Health Care Enrollment in 2020expands Government Otherdependence on 50.7% 49.3% 50%government Exchange Subsidies:health care 7.3% 40%Obamacare dumpsmillions into Medicaid Medicare: 18.3% 30%and creates new federalsubsidies forgovernment-approved 20%coverage. As a result, by Medicaidthe end of the decade and CHIP:most Americans will 25.1% 10%receive health coveragethrough governmentprograms. 0%Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services,Office of the Actuary, January 2012 report. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
Millions remain Health Coverage, With and Without Obamacare (2016)uninsured under UNINSURED MEDICAID GOVERNMENT EXCHANGESObamacare 56 millionPresident Obama promiseduniversal coverage under his 49 millionhealth care overhaul. (–30 (+17 million) million)However, even withObamacare, millions ofAmericans will remain 32uninsured. Those who do milliongain coverage will do so 26 millionprimarily through 20government exchanges or million (+20Medicaid. million) n/a Without With Without With Without WithNote: Figures have been rounded. Obamacare Obamacare Obamacare Obamacare Obamacare ObamacareSource: Congressional Budget Office, March 2012 report. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
If you like your Estimated Loss of Employer Coverage After Full Implementationhealth care, Congressionalcan you really Budget Office 11 millionkeep it? CMS Office of 14President Obama the Actuary millionpromised reform wouldnot affect existing The Lewincoverage. While it remains Groupuncertain exactly howmany Americans will lose 17.2 millionemployer-sponsored plansunder Obamacare, studies Americanshow it will be millions. Action Forum 35 millionSources: Congressional Budget Office, March 2010; CMSOffice of the Actuary, April 2010; The Lewin Group, June2010; and the American Action Forum, May 2010. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
Premiums Average Annual Cost of Employer-Basedcontinue to Health Insurancerise under $15,000 $13,770 $15,073Obamacare $12,000President Obamapromised premiumswould fall under his $9,000health law, butAmericans continue +9.5%to pay more every $6,000 $5,049 $5,429year. In fact,Obamacare isresponsible for aportion of the $3,000 +7.5%increase in cost. $0 2010 2011 2010 2011 Family Policy Individual PolicySource: Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research andEducational Trust, Employer Health Beneﬁts 2011 Annual Survey. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
States: Obamacare is unconstitutionalTwenty-eight states have ﬁled suits against the individual mandate and the Medicaidexpansion. The issue will be settled by the Supreme Court in 2012. WA VT NH MT ND ME OR MN ID SD WI NY MA WY MI RI NE IA PA CT NV NJ UT IN OH IL CO WV DE CA KS VA MO KY MD DC NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC States joining MS AL GA Florida v. Dept. of TX Health and Human LA Services suit AK FL States ﬁling suits separately HISource: Independent Women’s Forum, healthcarelawsuits.org. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
A Medicaid monsterObamacare increases coverage by adding millions of Americans to the low-quality,low-access Medicaid program, requiring billions of dollars from state budgets. WA VT NH 22.8% 11.2% 24.3% MT ME ND 12.1% 43.4% 32.5% OR 49.5% MN ID 21.1% WI 35.8% SD NY MA 8.7% WY 28% 17.7% 17.3% MI RI 21.8% 32.3% 23.5% NV IA PA CT 21.0% NE 22.3% 17.6% 65.6% 36.1% IL OH NJ 42.8% UT IN 24.7% 34.5% CO 24.7% 25.7% WV VA CA DE 18.1% 44.2% 30% KS MO KY 23.9%40.7% MD 30.9% 39.6% 30.8% 31.4% NC DC 13.3% AZ OK TN 25.1% 36.8% 36.4% NM AR SC 34.5% 30.7% 28.3% MS 36.1% 36.3% AL GA Increase in Medicaid 26.2% 41.1% Population Under TX 56.7% LA Obamacare by 2014 AK 29.5% 34.3% 0% to 20% 20.1% to 30% U.S. total: FL 30.1% to 40% HI 13.1% 30.4% 42.6% 40.1% to 70%Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicareand Medicaid Services and the Kaiser Family Foundation’s statehealthfacts.org. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
Medicaid expansion burdens state budgetsThe cost of Obamacare’s huge Medicaid expansion will burden both federal andstate governments, and states are already struggling to afford the program. WA VT NH $509 $32 $72 MT ME ND $68 $89 $41 OR $443 MN ID $321 MA $235 $155 SD WI NY WY $60 $351 MI $1,884 RI $82 $47 $835 CT $229 NV IA PA NE $188 $841 NJ $919 $339 $150 IL OH UT IN $988 DE $72 $197 CO $1,336 $513 WV VA CA $533 MD $515 $5,419 KS MO KY $166 $754 $246 $524 $508 DC $38 NC TN $674 $1,084 AZ NM OK AR Estimated State $851 $389 SC $306 $330 $523 Costs for Medicaid MS $471 AL GA Expansion, 2014- $425 $1,314 2020 (millions) TX $4,229 LA $30–$99 AK $609 $100–$499 $71 $500–$999 U.S. total: FL $1,000–$1,999 HI $65 $33.48 billion $2,439 $2,000–$5,500Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicareand Medicaid Services and the Kaiser Family Foundation’s statehealthfacts.org. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
Did Obamacare slow private-sector recovery?Between the recession’s Month-to-Month Net Change in Private-Sector Jobslow point in January BEFORE OBAMACARE2009 and April 2010, +600,000 Monthly improvementnet private-sector job in job-growth rates:growth improved at a +400,000 +67,000 jobs/monthrate of 67,000 jobs per +200,000month. After Obamasigned his health care 0legislation into law atthe end of March 2010, –200,000the improvement stalled. AFTER OBAMACAREOver the next two years –400,000 Monthly improvement in job-growth rates:private-sector job –600,000 +4,600 jobs/monthgrowth improved at arate of just 4,600 jobs –800,000 Trendper month. Actual –1,000,000 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the U.S. Departmentof Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment Survey/Haver Analytics. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
Taxed Enough Already? Just wait untilObamacare kicks inTo pay for generous subsidies to purchase health insurance, a huge expansion ofMedicaid, and other new spending, Obamacare raises taxes and adds 17 new taxes orpenalties that will affect all Americans.$100 million Excise tax on “Cadillac” employer health plans Total Annual Costs $80 of Obamacare Individual and Employer Taxes, 2010–2019: Mandate penalties $502 BILLION Health insurance premium tax $60 Increase in Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) tax and extension to investment income for $40 high-income earners Excise tax on medical devices $20 New restrictions on HSA, FSA plans Fee on pharmaceutical companies $0 Revenue from 8 other taxes 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data fromthe Joint Committee on Taxation, March 2010 report. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
Obamacare’s bundle of budget gimmicks +$400 When billion … but after accounting for these budget Obamacare gimmicks, the health law actually adds was enacted, $698 billion to the deﬁcit. its proponents said it would +$208 reduce the billion deﬁcit by $143 +$115 billion in its billion +$70 ﬁrst decade … billion +$29 +$19 billion billion Double- Unpaid-for Unaccounted- Revenue Double- Unrelated counted “doc ﬁx” for cost of from the counted student Medicare implementation failed savings loan savings CLASS from Social savings program Security payroll –$143 taxes billionSource: Senate Budget Committee. Obamacare in Pictures heritage.org
The Health Care Intiative is one of 10 Transformational Initiatives making up The Heritage Foundation’sLeadership for America campaign. For more products and information related to these Initiatives or to learnmore about the Leadership for American campaign, please visit heritage.org.The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institution—a think tank—whose mission is to formu-late and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government,individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.As conservatives, we believe the values and ideas that motivated our Founding Fathers are worth conserving.As policy entrepreneurs, we believe the most effective solutions are consistent with those ideas and values. 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE • Washington, DC 20002-4999 (202) 546-4400 • heritage.org
A particular slide catching your eye?
Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.