Towards 9Billion: Infiniteeconomy on afinite planetJoss Tantram               University of Surrey,                       ...
Overview•   The future that is coming•   The challenge of the real world•   The challenge of the Unreal world•   Towards 9...
“When it comes tothe baddestsonfabitch on theblock, nature winsevery time.”           Joe R Landsdale
The future that is coming• 9 billion people are coming.• Resource scarcity and price volatility – in energy and  water but...
“In England we havecome to rely upon acomfortable time-lagof fifty years or acentury interveningbetween theperception that...
The challenge of the real worldEcological systems are:• Dynamic and complex, capable of rapid change.• Determined by physi...
The challenge of the Unreal worldEconomies and markets:• Lack strategic social and ecological intent.• Find valuing common...
“What rational businesswould, on the onehand, make plans forgrowth in the productionand supply of productsand services whi...
Towards 9 Billion...The Vision
Towards 9 Billion...The Strategy• To align the common interests of  organisations with those of citizens to  produce innat...
Towards 9 Billion...two goalsOver the next 40 (ish) years to deliver:• 9 billion capable citizens.• Healthy and thriving e...
Towards 9 Billion - dimensionsWhat are capable citizens? Citizens capable of making economic choices and economic plans....
Towards 9 Billion - dimensionsWhat are healthy & thriving ecosystems?   Healthy and thriving ecosystems:    •   Have prop...
Towards 9 BillionAchieving the vision:  • Requires us to value the future as highly as we value today.  • To align common ...
It’s all about price • Price is a fundamental component of our   economic and financial architecture. • Price is a concept...
Hacking the price functionTowards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:• Value abundance rather than scarcity -  scarce thi...
Hacking the price functionTowards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:• Preserve & Grow Natural vitality -  making use of ...
Hacking the price functionTowards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:• Value and Balance  interdependence - nothing  happ...
Abundant Assets & technologies...
“Nature is tryingvery hard to makeus succeed, butnature does notdepend on us. Weare not the onlyexperiment.”        R. Buc...
Further informationEmail: joss@terrafiniti.comTowards 9 Billion Blog: www.terrafiniti.com/blogWeb: www.terrafiniti.com    ...
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Terrafiniti's Towards 9 Billion at the Centre for Environmental Strategy

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We believe that the time has come to build a world where we can welcome 9 billion people rather than fear their arrival. A world of 9 billion capable citizens is an ambitious vision and a powerful driver for the development of economies, businesses and societies.

A potential marketplace of 9 billion capable citizens in 2050 demands a range of social, technical, industrial and ecological pre-requisites.
This presentation explores the vision and proposes some simple yet fundamental changes to the nature of economics to produce innately sustainable outcomes.

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Terrafiniti's Towards 9 Billion at the Centre for Environmental Strategy

  1. 1. Towards 9Billion: Infiniteeconomy on afinite planetJoss Tantram University of Surrey, Centre for Environmental Strategy.Partner, Terrafiniti LLP 1st November 2012
  2. 2. Overview• The future that is coming• The challenge of the real world• The challenge of the Unreal world• Towards 9 Billion – a positive vision• It’s all about price• Hacking the price function – Towards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles Making business sense of sustainability
  3. 3. “When it comes tothe baddestsonfabitch on theblock, nature winsevery time.” Joe R Landsdale
  4. 4. The future that is coming• 9 billion people are coming.• Resource scarcity and price volatility – in energy and water but also rare metals and natural production.• Larger and more unpredictable changes to ecosystem function.• Increased social unrest due to inequity and economic disenfranchisement.• Continued system-wide inertial impacts and risks.However....• We are capable of great things...
  5. 5. “In England we havecome to rely upon acomfortable time-lagof fifty years or acentury interveningbetween theperception thatsomething ought to bedone and a seriousattempt to do it.” H G Wells
  6. 6. The challenge of the real worldEcological systems are:• Dynamic and complex, capable of rapid change.• Determined by physical conditions.• Have no absolute “right or wrong” states.• Have varied hugely over time, hospitable conditions for species are not guaranteed.• Only partially understood, vastly more complex than human models are able to map.• Capable of being affected by and affecting human activity.
  7. 7. The challenge of the Unreal worldEconomies and markets:• Lack strategic social and ecological intent.• Find valuing common goods and the productive capacity of underlying systems challenging.• Discount rather than compound future value.• Are only partially based upon the nature of physical reality.• Tend to value activity at any “cost”.
  8. 8. “What rational businesswould, on the onehand, make plans forgrowth in the productionand supply of productsand services whilst onthe other hand buildingthose technologies andservices using resourcesthat are not abundant orsafe enough to meetthese growth targets?” Towards 9 Billion – Valuing Abundance
  9. 9. Towards 9 Billion...The Vision
  10. 10. Towards 9 Billion...The Strategy• To align the common interests of organisations with those of citizens to produce innately sustainable outcomes, and:• To make small but significant changes to the way that business, economics and finance operate to embed sustainable value in economic price.
  11. 11. Towards 9 Billion...two goalsOver the next 40 (ish) years to deliver:• 9 billion capable citizens.• Healthy and thriving ecosystems.
  12. 12. Towards 9 Billion - dimensionsWhat are capable citizens? Citizens capable of making economic choices and economic plans. They would: • have access to advanced education • be highly connected • be equitably rewarded for the use of their lives in other people’s employ • be able to raise children without fearing for their future • be capable of contributing to and accessing commercial and public services • make conscious and informed decisions about what they buy.
  13. 13. Towards 9 Billion - dimensionsWhat are healthy & thriving ecosystems?  Healthy and thriving ecosystems: • Have properties that are greater than the sum of their individual constituents • provide varied ecosystem services • have the capacity to absorb disturbance – resilience • are diverse – exhibiting multiple redundancy.
  14. 14. Towards 9 BillionAchieving the vision: • Requires us to value the future as highly as we value today. • To align common interest and self-interest. • To assess economic behaviour as likely to either support or undermine that future and use this to determine the value of that behaviour. • To have a shared goal for economic activity. • To re-engineer how we define price.
  15. 15. It’s all about price • Price is a fundamental component of our economic and financial architecture. • Price is a concept arising from a combination of supply and demand, statistics and sentiment. • But price is not the same as value. • Price values the present as more valuable than the future. • Price struggles with the priceless – human wellbeing, healthy & thriving ecosystems.
  16. 16. Hacking the price functionTowards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:• Value abundance rather than scarcity - scarce things are only of marginal utility in a world of 9 billion capable citizens . Either natural (e.g. biologically based) or managed (e.g. through closed loop stewardship) abundance is inherently more valuable and sustainable in this context.
  17. 17. Hacking the price functionTowards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:• Preserve & Grow Natural vitality - making use of the planet’s natural restorative and productive abilities (Restorative services) and learning from and utilising natural production techniques (Vital technologies) as the basis for our technological and industrial models.
  18. 18. Hacking the price functionTowards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:• Value and Balance interdependence - nothing happens in our modern world without the involvement of others. We need to recognise and balance this interdependence so that our quality of life is not bought at the cost of someone else’s and that our quality of life is not at risk if others we depend upon decide to withdraw their subsidy.
  19. 19. Abundant Assets & technologies...
  20. 20. “Nature is tryingvery hard to makeus succeed, butnature does notdepend on us. Weare not the onlyexperiment.” R. Buckminster Fuller
  21. 21. Further informationEmail: joss@terrafiniti.comTowards 9 Billion Blog: www.terrafiniti.com/blogWeb: www.terrafiniti.com Making business sense of sustainability

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