The Future of Government Communications Networks

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  • GCON: The Gartner Government David Willis Conference 2006 14-16 June 2006 Marriott Wardman Park Hotel Washington, DC The Future of Government Communications Networks These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner's written approval. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail — vendor.relations@gartner.com.
  • The major trends driving IT change during 2006-2009 are: Commoditization and consumerization — Changing the balance of power between governments and enterprise, the individual and the technology providers. Virtualization and tera-architectures — Evolving the form and function of hardware and data centers. Software granularity and new acquisition models — Redefining the way software is developed and delivered. Community and collaboration — Tracking the rise of technology enabled virtual communities and the changing patterns of collaboration and interaction.
  • What technologies will enterprise networks depend on for their 2011 networks? The Gartner Hype Cycles highlight the most important and visible technologies in networking. The priority matrix above organizes the technologies by time and impact. There are dozens of technologies that an enterprise could adopt in its network. It is essential that projects be prioritized based on business need — and put into a two- to three-year communications plan. Action Item: Build a two- to three-year networking and communications plan that addresses the most critical initiatives for your specific business. Tactical Guideline: Use the Gartner Hype Cycle to manage the timing of your technology initiatives.
  • What technologies will enterprise networks depend on for their 2011 networks? Emerging development approaches such as Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (Ajax) and service-oriented architecture (Web Services) will increase the load on networks, requiring even more integration with application developers than ever. Windows Vista and Longhorn server will hit the market in 2007. Microsoft will also position Vista and Active Directory as the cornerstone for management of security, virtual private networks (VPNs) and other networking services. Vista and Longhorn also feature a new networking stack. Early versions of the stack have not only suffered from stability problems but have also been vulnerable to attack. While Microsoft will likely address many of these issues in early releases, Vista should be carefully qualified from a network and security perspective before being deployed. Action Item: Emerging application and client architectures will require careful review from a networking perspective. Establish ties to application planners now, before they start rolling out new systems . Tactical Guideline: Applications will become less network-aware and less efficient. New forms of application delivery will create additional demands on networks.
  • Contrary to the pervasive view that networks are simply bit-pipes, networks should play a role in security and application performance. The intelligent network delivers services more efficiently and with better performance than the "stupid" network. Large vendors are now becoming dominant in the networking industry — the shakeout among hardware vendors and service providers is not over yet, and the biggest vendors are getting even bigger. Users are being driven by large-vendor momentum rather than a true assessment of their needs, relying on vendors to write their own communications plans. Although network service providers have consolidated, enterprises have so many alternative networking options available to them that pricing will not be going up for the foreseeable future — if they maintain a position of control with their suppliers. In service provider contracts, larger contracts do not always deliver the best services or value. In fact, the very largest contracts often fail for both the buyer and the provider. IT historically forced its will upon users, locking down systems end to end. Increasingly, users own the device and the applications — but IT can and must exercise control over what they can do. While centralization is a good cost reduction strategy, full centralized control leads to rebellion in the business units, and even cost inefficiencies. A shared services strategy is much more effective.
  • What technologies will enterprise networks depend on for their 2011 networks? Communications networks not only connect people to applications, but they are also the unifying element that makes applications perform better and more securely. The future will be a network of networks, with the Internet and mobile networks playing an ever-larger role in corporate infrastructure. Applications and infrastructure work together in a symbiotic fashion, each feeding the other. Applications that were once centralized to a particular device (for example, a mainframe) get gradually distributed out to clients, with increasing variety and customization. Gradually, common services become imbedded in the cloud, accessible from any location (for example, via a browser). Voice applications are now following the same trajectory — as just another application on the network, it is no longer important where the user is or even what device he or she may be using. Skype's voice services are a good example. But communications infrastructure follows the opposite path, as server-based functions ultimately get absorbed into base infrastructure. First it comes in the form of server offload functions (such as Secure Sockets Layer [SSL] processing, encryption), next in the form of overlay devices (appliances) that are distributed around the infrastructure, and then finally into switches and routers. Clients must not rush this process too quickly, at the risk of inefficiency and vendor lock-in. Strategic Planning Assumptions: Through 2012, function-specific overlay devices will remain 18 months ahead of integrated infrastructure on performance and functionality (0.8 probability). During 2008 to 2012, user-installed voice application/applet features will be 18 months ahead of IPBXes (0.8 probability).
  • Strategic Guideline: Vendors are moving from selling components to vying to be the control point. Large vendors that were partners historically will soon be competitors. The virtualization of IT infrastructure is becoming a key efficiency strategy, and networking has long used virtualization techniques ( for example, VLANs, VPNs, DHCP). New virtualization models extend beyond a single domain — encompassing networks, servers, clients, middleware, and application layers into a unified whole. But what is the focal point for management of the virtualized infrastructure? Cisco, IBM, and Microsoft all come from a position of dominance in their respective areas, and they each have designs on the most important position of control in IT infrastructure. This will be the new battleground for IT. Loyalty to these vendors can be very high in user organizations, which will create conflict in many IT shops. Action Item: Expect these vendor conflicts to appear in your own organization — from networking, server, data center, and application/OS teams. Build a cross-functional technical architecture team to review the key control points for systems management and virtualization.
  • These new application delivery styles will require careful planning — the impacts on infrastructure are significant. Technologies such as Ajax and XML are not only heavier on networks, but the move to virtualization will be a challenge for planners. Traffic patterns will become more random and chaotic, and they will make traditional capacity planning techniques obsolete. New network emulation/simulation systems are making test labs much more affordable to build and easier to use. Best practice organizations use these systems to pre-qualify major application rollouts, using multiple scenarios, before deployment. Action Item: Establish guidelines for developers using these new techniques. Set up a test lab to qualify major applications initiatives before they are rolled out. Strategic Guideline: New technologies and business models will fundamentally change how you deploy and manage end-user applications through the end of the decade.
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  • Three trends are affecting corporate networking and telecom: Convergence of private infrastructure onto IP: This means IP over Ethernet in the LAN, along with the shift of voice to become an application like many others, delivered by a voice application server. This means unified communications can deliver its promised benefits, as online employees use various modes to relay information in near real time. • Convergence of public infrastructure onto the public Internet. For many operators, there is little to no difference in their own backbone networks vs. their public Internet networks. For branch offices and remote workers unwilling or unable to pay for more expensive and better service-level agreement (SLA) guaranteed private networks, the public Internet with basic Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) or IPSec tunneling is good enough. • Convergence of multiple networks and applications means that centralized directory and policy management services take on greater importance in the corporate network. Although MPLS provides a great common backbone, policy and priority management must still be established to ensure acceptable performance of all applications when e-mail, voice and video multicasting are all routed over the same network. Strategic Planning Assumptions: By 2010, the Internet will be able to support 70 percent of business needs and deliver acceptable consumer quality (0.8 probability). By 2010, the majority of large enterprises will rely on MPLS for their WAN needs (0.8 probability). By 2010, the majority of small and midsize businesses (SMBs) will rely on IP virtual private networks (VPN) over the public Internet for their WAN needs (0.8 probability).
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  • Telephony systems are available today in three forms: traditional systems supporting only time division multiplexing (TDM) lines; systems supporting only IP connections; and those capable of supporting both traditional and IP telephones (normally referred to as "IP enabled" systems). Companies need to think about adopting a 'licenses and gateways' strategy for communications. Centralization of the application and consolidation of common equipment will enable a lower total cost of ownership as well as providing common access to the same application for all users. Access to the PSTN is provided by strategically placed gateways across the business – not one in each remote office. Irrespective of whether companies centralize their telephony application in their own data center, a large office location, or use a service provider network, the common deliverable is that telephony becomes a hosted application. Action Item: Companies should select a strategic single supplier for their enterprise telephony platform and adopt network architectures that enable hosting of the solution. Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2008, 50 percent of organizations will no longer have a pure-TDM PBX or key system (0.7 probability).
  • MPLS versus frame relay versus the Internet: While both network service providers and enterprises are moving to pure-IP services, the timing of the move is critical. MPLS is now the default choice for new networks, and all but the most limited networks (that is, those that are low-speed, hub and spoke) will stay with frame relay. Several carriers have announced an end of life for their frame relay networks. But it is not all MPLS. A "one size fits all" approach to WAN services is an incorrect strategy for nearly all organizations. Frequently, it is more appropriate to have a mix of technologies (e.g., large sites get MPLS, smaller sites get Internet virtual private networks [VPNs] from a single common carrier, and home offices get Internet VPNs from an aggregator or by simply sourcing Internet connections on their own). Indeed, it is best practice to create tiers of sites in this fashion, where sites are mapped into tiers based on their need for better service levels, as opposed to a desire for low cost. Hybrid strategies that mix the best attributes of MPLS and Internet VPNs deserve attention, especially for high reliability needs. Action Item: Consider timing for MPLS migration, and use hybrids for high capacity/high reliability needs. Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2008, more than 50 percent of large U.S. enterprises will have replaced their frame relay networks with MPLS, with IP voice being the primary driver (0.6 probability).
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  • The expected useful life of network equipment is changing. In general, basic L2/L3 network equipment purchased during 2006 will be in place for 40-50 percent longer than equipment purchased during 2000. As a result of this shift, depreciation cycles can be extended and equipment leases must be more carefully considered. Gone are the days where organizations could lease networking equipment for three years, assume the residual value was effectively zero and move onto a new infrastructure. The leasing term should be increased and equipment now has a residual value and will be of use, possibly in the existing infrastructure, but certainly somewhere in the market. However, useful life for more advanced functions such as wireless LANs, application delivery controllers and WAN optimization controllers is much shorter. These markets are still evolving either due to standards development (as in the case of WLANs) or rapid innovation (as in the case of WOCs and ADCs). Action Item: Network managers must focus on designing an open, flexible L2/L3 infrastructure to ensure that emerging applications and network overlays can be easily deployed to meet more important network functionality requirements. Strategic Planning Assumption: Through 2011, the useful life of basic network infrastructure equipment will be twice that of advanced functions (0.8 probability).
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  • Building a reliable distributed infrastructure becomes more important as services and data becomes more centralized. A number of important issues need to be addressed. First is the performance of applications in remote office. The evolution of the WOC into BOB (Branch Office Box) will occupy a key role, not only for application performance, but also to replicate a number of the hidden, vital functions that typically reside on branch offices services. These include DNS, DHCP, domain controllers, print servers and so on. Beyond specific branch requirements, there are a number of logical functions in the network such as policy, route control, name and address resolution and directory, that must be taken more seriously than in the past. Organizations typically spend the vast majority of planning and operations focused on the physical network infrastructure. Many of the logical functions are equally important in maintaining the reliability of the network. Action Item: Network managers must take more active control of logical functions within the infrastructure to ensure the reliability of a distributed network architecture. Strategic Planning Assumptions: Through 2010, critical client-facing business processes will continue to be pushed out to branch offices (0.8 probability). Through 2010, financial and regulatory concerns will drive server consolidation and centralization (0.8 probability).
  • For a majority of organizations, networking represents 20-30 percent of IT budgets — and therefore will continue to be a target for cost reduction measures. For most, networking budgets are dominated by carrier and staffing/outsourcing costs, together comprising about 80 percent of the total. Equipment and maintenance costs make up the remainder. It is not wise to seek a quick fix to reduce costs. Attempts to simply 'outsource everything' or to introduce arbitrary and draconian cost cutting measures rarely achieve their goal — often increasing cost, adding complexity, reducing agility, or forcing business units to go off on their own ("stealth IT"). Although there is no one-size-fits-all model for organizations, our research indicates that highly centralized IT organizations achieve better support at a lower total cost. In the case of a major financial services firm, adopting a centralized approach for voice/data contracts and other outsourced services led to a cost reduction of eight percent in the first year, with an expected 12-15 percent per following year as the integration accelerates. Whirlpool's standardized network infrastructure strategy is expected to cut total costs by $10 million while simultaneously improving productivity. Having an organization-specific communications plan is critical to success. Successful organizations use their planning efforts to reduce support costs, insure service level consistency and improve purchasing leverage with vendors.   Strategic Imperative: Organizations must take a carefully rationalized approach to cost reduction efforts with centralization, standardization and simplification as key tenets.
  • How should enterprises prepare for their 2011 network? The examples above are a small subset of the choices that enterprise communications planners must make: Communications plans often feature 12 or more network domains. These are some of the larger networking decisions highlighted at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in 2006. As large vendors get bigger and more dominant, enterprises must not lose control over their infrastructure decisions. The best solution can often exist outside the large vendor's portfolio. Organizations must first select an architecture that fits their needs, examine solutions in the market, select the most appropriate vendor and migrate based on their own requirements. Consideration should be given to the incumbent vendor, as well as the cost of maintaining more suppliers — but these should be balanced against the advantages that alternative architectures and vendors can provide. Strategic Imperative: First determine the architecture that is right for your company; choose specific vendor solutions next.
  • Cisco clearly deserves its position as the major influence in the enterprise data market. However, it is equally clear that many enterprises and governments rely too strongly on this influence, to the point that they no longer evaluate their own requirements. From our work with thousands of enterprises and government agencies, too many find themselves at the fourth and fifth stages of Gartner's "Network Influence Curve." Although its core products certainly will live up to expectations, too often, Cisco's early attempts at other markets fall well short of the capabilities from other vendors. Blindly following Cisco in these cases will cause enterprises to lose competitive advantage — and does not even take into account the increased costs of the entire infrastructure, when alternatives are rarely, if ever, considered. Enterprises can use the Cisco influence curve to their advantage. The first task is to do a self-assessment as businesses must realize where they fall on the curve. From client discussions, at least 80 percent of the market would be classified at level four of five on the influence curve and are buying Cisco solutions by default. Without keeping an open mind to requirements and suppliers, network managers are not providing the level of capabilities and direction for the IT organization and the applications relying on the network. By moving toward a more open and healthy vendor relationship, network managers will build a network that better meets the needs of the enterprise. In addition, this new relationship, when worked on with procurement specialists, will result in capital costs savings of 25 percent or more. These savings can be used to advance other projects in IT or be applied directly to the bottom line to improve corporate finances. Strategic Imperative: Enterprises must work toward moving toward level 3 on the vendor influence curve.
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  • As network life spans increase, the total maintenance spend becomes an even more significant portion of the total equipment related costs. We are seeing significantly more interest from clients to control maintenance spending for basic infrastructure. There are a number of steps organizations can take to help control this spend. The first step is to treat the maintenance contracts like any other big project and use a competitive bidding process. Discounting on maintenance services has increased recently, so even this simple step can often save significant money. Secondly, organizations can investigate self sparing for some of the more basic equipment — especially for locations where they are using a large number of similar devices. Understanding how they use differing classes of equipment can help in determining what level of outside service, if any, is required. A further step would be to look to managed services and treat the second and third level network as a utility to allow attention to more advanced functionality. Finally, organizations should not forget that maintenance costs should also enter the overall evaluation when choosing a strategic vendor for key projects. Organizations have the most leverage at time of purchase and should include long term maintenance requirements as part of their evaluation. Action Item: Enterprises should take more proactive control in dealing with maintenance. Strategic Planning Assumption: Organizations that proactively assess and negotiate for network support and maintenance can reduce yearly support fees by at least 20 percent (0.7 probability).
  • Management uses three basic organizational models to align communication structures with the business: centralized, decentralized and federated. In centralized approaches, planning and budgetary functions are centrally controlled. Centralization has many advantages: economies of scale, efficiency, cost visibility and control. But the potential disadvantages are considerable. Centralized approaches traditionally are less flexible and less responsive to local needs — and have lost touch with the business. Decentralized approaches — where each line of business or business unit manages its own communications organization and spending, independent of other business units — has advantages. It's more responsive to local needs, and it promotes joint communications-business understanding. But it also leads to duplicate efforts, architectural diffusion and a higher cost structure. The federated, or hybrid model combines features of both. The corporate, or global, organization is responsible for the central unit and for coordinating the division communication units. This model is used by many large, multidivisional enterprises to balance local priorities for innovation and responsiveness with enterprise priorities for scale and standardization. Most large organizations use a federated model.
  • "Shared services" is a term used liberally when referring to some form of a consolidated or aggregated service provision model. It gained prominence in the 1990s, when many large, global organizations consolidated their distributed back-office processes (such as HR, finance and accounting) and the IT resources that served the enterprise. This was largely driven by the desire to lower their cost base, which is still the strongest driver for consolidation initiatives. Many of these examples are more-correctly categorized as "centralized" initiatives, but they nevertheless have pioneered the general approach and demonstrated substantial reductions in overall costs, as well as yielding improvements in the delivery quality of standardized back-office services. More recently, government organizations, particularly in Australia, Canada and the U.K. have been undertaking shared services initiatives that aim to extract the kind of cost benefits that commercially based organizations have achieved. Interest in this approach is strong with virtually all government organizations worldwide. Shared-service arrangements involve the aggregated provision of services between multiple, largely autonomous entities. Shared services aim to achieve benefits by using a single group to provide a service to multiple agencies or units, rather than each agency requiring its own capacity to provide that service. Benefits result from aggregated economies of scale or scope, the ability to negotiate from a stronger aggregate base and through adoption of streamlined, common business processes, particularly when significant simplification and standardization are involved.
  • Government agencies involved in shared services have found that no single approach or model is appropriate for the spectrum of services they can share, particularly considering the range of variables that may be involved. These variables include the nature of the shared service, overall objectives and timing, funding, governance, relationships, delivery resourcing, and the cultures of the client and service provider organizations. A variety of arrangements have been created to support shared government services. These arrangements differ according to the degree of autonomy between the participating agencies and the scale or scope of the services that are to be shared. Real ownership by each agency in a shared-service arrangement — and therefore the greatest potential for realization of benefits — is achievable only when each individual agency can choose to enter or exit the arrangement — that is, the arrangement is voluntary. The conundrum for executive government is that to achieve the benefits undoubtedly possible from a mandated approach means that agencies need to have real decision-making autonomy for adequate ownership and best possible outcomes. In mandated approaches, agencies have little choice about their involvement and a very limited influence on governance. For government agencies, the shared-service arena is maturing and its evolution will continue. Successful government agencies will adopt more than one of the above approaches to deal with the variety of shared-service arrangements likely to be implemented in the future. Action item: Understand your shared-service environment and then consider and apply the most appropriate approach. Don't force-fit services that are not sufficiently similar, and avoid trying to mandate sharing agreements. As service needs change over time, make sure there is flexibility to adapt and improve.
  • The three most difficult network functions to perform are business needs analysis, security management and change management. Most network organizations understand the basics of fault monitoring, and are working on better root-cause analysis and change management, while getting a handle on security management. But planning is still lacking. Action Item: Ensure that staff dedicated to planning functions do not become actively engaged in operations. Strategic Imperative: Dedicate resources to communications planning — capacity planning, performance analysis, and business needs analysis.
  • Strategic Planning Assumption: Through 2010, most companies without network strategic plans will spend at least 20 percent more on networking than those with plans (0.8 probability). Companies need to spend the time and effort to build a network architecture that addresses the coming changes, such as IP telephony, VoIP, application-fluent networks, mobility and business-specific requirements. Creating formal design and planning groups with specific deliverables is a way to ensure that the necessary and highly valuable work does get done. The planning process should produce a common vision considering audience, governance, role of standards, timing and scope. The communications plan should include a discussion about business drivers, key applications, data center locations and user locations. Beyond connectivity, services may extend into other realms, such as voice platforms, messaging, directory, security and collaboration (for example, conferencing, whiteboarding or groupware). Typical network architectural principles address: cost effectiveness; cost appropriateness (aligning the right level of service with the right cost of service); consistent implementations; adaptability and reuse of designs; manageability/secureability; life cycle support; retirement of legacy infrastructure; separation of responsibilities; "sourceability;" use of industry standards-based components; supplier independence; single vendor vs. best-of-breed; management flexibility; and the ability to measure service delivery to the business and map this to applications and business value. Action Item: Establish communications plans on at least three-year cycles.
  • Recommendations Change Past Design Criteria — Don't blindly follow — Don't buy screen phones if you have a PC on your desk — Don't do 1 Gigabit Ethernet to the desktop — Use Internet arbitrage — Upgrade the network, not the bandwidth — Upgrade the business, not the technology Change the business by investing in — UC — Applications Acceleration and WAN Optimization — Intelligent mobile devices (during refresh) — WLAN (with the ability to support voice) Spend money, but spend it in the right places and return the rest to stakeholders.
  • GCON: The Gartner Government David Willis Conference 2006 14-16 June 2006 Marriott Wardman Park Hotel Washington, DC The Future of Government Communications Networks These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner's written approval. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail — vendor.relations@gartner.com.

Transcript

  • 1. The Future of Government Communications Networks Joe Skorupa Research VP
  • 2. Challenges and IT Delivery Trends More sophisticated & demanding citizens Emergency Communications Border & Port Security First Responder Networks Improving efficiency & service consistency Commoditization & Consumerization Virtualization & Tera-Architectures Software Granularity & New Acquisition Models Community & Collaboration Challenges for Government IT New IT Realities
  • 3. Emerging Enterprise Network Technologies  
    • IPv6
    • Video Telephony
        Low
    • Telepresence
     
    • WAN Opt Controllers
    • Network Config Mgt
    • Mobile Gateways
    • WiMAX
    • Streaming Video
    • Videoconferencing
    • MPLS
    • SSL VPNs
    • VoIP over WLAN
    Moderate
    • Sensor Nets
    • HSUPA
    • Network Access Control
    • HSDPA
    • Mesh Networks
    • Fixed/Mobile Convergence
    • XML Appliances
    • Application Delivery Controllers
    • EV-DO
    • Location-aware tech
    • Telecom Exp Mgt
    High  
    • VoIP WWAN
    • AirPBX
    • IP Telephony Unified Comms
    • NFC
    • UWB
      Transformational More Than 10 Years 5 to 10 Years 2 to 5 Years Less Than 2 Years
  • 4. Beyond Networks: Watch These Technologies  
    • PC Application Virtualization
    Moderate
    • Grid Computing
    • Commercial Telematics
    • Ajax
    • Sales Configuration Systems
    High
    • Ubiquitous Collaboration
    • PC Software Appliances
    • Service-Oriented Architecture (XML)
    • PC Application Streaming
    • PC Virtualization
      Transformational 5 to 10 Years 2 to 5 Years Less Than 2 Years
  • 5. Seven Dangerous Myths
    • Networks Are Just Dumb Bandwidth
    • My Architecture Is My Vendor
    • Bandwidth Costs Are Going to Go UP!
    • Big Is Good, So Biggest Must Be Best
    • IT Must Own Everything
    • Centralized IT Is Better IT
  • 6. Communications Is Becoming Software QOS Security Scale Optimization Intranet Internet Home Carrier Mobile Applications Voice/video/data Multiple Networks Devices and Applications Servers and Datacenters Switch-centric Server- based Client- based Apps Infra Integration Offload XML Processing Dial tone Message stores Server- based Server + offload Overlays Switch/ router Physical Integrated Layered Application Evolution (Voice) Infrastructure Evolution (Core Network) Virtual
    • Avoid vendor-centric strategies
    • IP does not mean open
    • Emphasize integration, application support and security
    • Overlay first, integrate later
    Coping Strategies
  • 7. Software Creates a Fight for Control Application Server Network Middleware and Application Clustering Virtualization Layer Management Software Oper System As automation and standardization grow in infrastructure, vendors are vying for control of infrastructure control — trying to avoid commoditization Storage Operating System Vendors Strength: Current center of gravity Application Vendors Strength: Understand business need Networking Vendors Strength: Touch everything Middleware Vendors Strength: Application domain knowledge across service Management Software Vendors Strength: Understand service architecture Virtualization Vendors Strength: Complete control of resources Server Vendors Strength: Legacy center of gravity Storage Vendors Strength: It's all about data "The Platform is the Network Device" "The Platform is the Servers and Endpoints" "The Platform is the Middleware Server"
  • 8. New Modes of Client Application Delivery
    • Virtual Machines
    • Protected images
    • Deployment
    • Manage images, not PCs
    • Software as a Service
    • Rich Internet applications (RIA) – Google, Ajax, Live!
    • Integrated (Vista)
    • Enables new form factors
    • Paid services, or subsidized by advertising
    The architecture of client computing has changed only gradually over the last 20 years. Connectivity and bandwidth are making new models of client computing possible. Predictions: By 2009, 60% of enterprises will employ at least five application delivery techniques By 2010, at least 60% of new application development projects will include RIA technology
    • Software Streaming
    • Application streaming
    • VM streaming ("players")
    • OS streaming
    • Management flexibility
    • Remote Hosting
    • Server-based
    • Blade-based PCs
    • Virtual desktops
    • Central management
  • 9. Strategic Planning Assumption
    • By 2010, the Internet will be able to support 70 percent of business needs and deliver acceptable consumer quality (0.8 probability).
    • By 2010, the majority of large enterprises will rely on MPLS for their WAN needs (0.8 probability).
    • By 2010, the majority of small and midsize businesses (SMBs) will rely on IP virtual private networks (VPN) over the public Internet for their WAN needs (0.8 probability).
  • 10. Trends Driving Network Planning Voice applications server; wireless; presence and messaging; security embedded into LAN/WAN LAN and telephony infrastructure converge on IP over Ethernet LAN Remote offices adopt public Internet as "good enough" Core networks rely on MPLS for its flexibility WAN Workers are more nomadic; Quality of and access to broadband Internet improves Networks optimize applications Collaboration, video applications (multicast or training-on-demand) grow Application integration with mobile devices drives fixed/mobile convergence Applications Directory, policy, security and presence management integrated into applications
  • 11. Strategic Planning Assumption
    • By 2008, 50 percent of organizations will no longer have a pure-TDM PBX or key system (0.7 probability).
  • 12. The IP Telephony Transition Has Begun
    • Changes the way we look at telephony — and the way we manage it
    • There is no universal business case — cost, features, integration are all factored in
    • Peer to peer voice, centralization of voice; centrally managed, with either centralized management or virtualized
    • Requires critical integration to data network management processes:
      • Network assessment, monitoring, security, change management must adapt
    • 2007+ : Mobility will be the most important requirement for VoIP
    Enterprise Line Shipments (North America) TDM lines Pure IP IP-Enabled Source: Gartner Dataquest, 2005
    • Site-specific designs are shifting toward common blueprints and consistent functionality, supporting unified applications
  • 13. Evolution of the Multiservice WAN New Internet Past 2004-2006 2006-2008 2009+
    • Partial MPLS
    • Migration to MPLS (large offices) and VPN (small/remote)
    • IP WAN
    • Frame Relay decline
    • Internet/ MPLS blur
    • Separate Networks
    • Voice on the PSTN
    • Frame relay is 'private'
    • Internet VPN for mobile/remote
    • Integrated
    • All MPLS
    • Tiered services?
    PSTN Frame Relay Frame Relay MPLS PSTN MPLS VPN PSTN ATM ISDN VSAT New Internet VPN VPN
  • 14. Strategic Planning Assumption
    • Through 2011, the useful life of basic network infrastructure equipment will be twice that of advanced functions (0.8 probability).
  • 15. Network Lifespan — Basic Infrastructure vs. Innovative Services Depreciation Useful Life Basic Infrastructure
    • Conflicting lifespans
      • Build open infrastructure
      • Add services first through overlay
    • Replacement is driven by:
      • Infrastructure requirements
      • Risk avoidance
      • Price (capital and support)
    • Services driven by:
      • New application adoption
      • Business process
    Services Overlay Wireless LAN (2006) IP-PBX (2006) WAN Router (2006) Edge Switch (2006) Core Ethernet Switch (2006) ADC (2006) WOC (2006) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Years
  • 16. Strategic Planning Assumption
    • Through 2010, critical client-facing business processes will continue to be pushed out to branch offices (0.8 probability).
    • Through 2010, financial and regulatory concerns will drive server consolidation and centralization (0.8 probability).
  • 17. End to End Reliability and Performance — Adding Logical Services
    • Persistent Datacenter
      • WOC
      • WAFS
      • ECDN/(video, patches)
      • DNS/DHCP
      • Domain controller
      • Print
      • Security
    • Visible Services:
      • Mail
      • File/print
      • Business appls
      • Basic productivity appls
    • Invisible Services:
      • DNS/DHCP
      • Domain controller
      • Data protection
      • Policy
      • Access control
      • BW management
    Branch Office Application Delivery Controller SSL Termination Spoofing Optimized Flows BOB IP Network Spoofing
  • 18. Attacking the Cost Problem Infrastructure Support Equipment Carrier Services
    • Consolidate
    • Negotiate
    • Manage
      • Assets
      • Suppliers
      • Usage
    Start with a PLAN
    • Simplify
      • Centralize
      • Standardize
    • Automate
    • Outsource
          • Negotiate through channels
        • Time purchases
      • Consider alternate vendors
    • Maintenance and/or sparing
    Understand Total Costs
    • Hardware
    • Carrier fees
    • Personnel
    • Support services
    • Facilities
    • Agency spend
    • User self support
  • 19. A Vendor is Not an Architecture A Few of Many Critical Decisions …
    • Mobility Dual Mode
    • UC Twinning
    • Enterprise IP PBX
    • VoIP Toll Bypass
    • Managed/Outsourced/ Hosted IP PBX
    • Thick Client
    • Rich Client
    • Streaming
    • Wi-Fi
    • Mesh
    • Persistent Branch
    • Unified
    • MPLS
    • Ethernet
    Choices Fixed/Mobile Convergence Voice over IP Mobility Wireless WAN Branch Office Global WAN WAN Architecture Domain
    • Unlicensed Mobile Access
    • IMS
    • IP Trunking/Gateway Services
    • Broadband IP Telephony
    • IP Centrex
    • Personal Internet Telephony
    • Thin Client
    • Messaging
    • No Client
    • 3G
    • WiMAX
    • Persistent Data Center
    • Regional
    • Local
    • Internet VPN
    • Hybrid
  • 20. The Vendor Influence Curve
    • What are Benefits of being at Level 3?
      • A better network
      • Control of IT strategy
      • Save money
    • How to Get to Level 3?
      • Understand business requirements
      • Build your own strategic plan
      • Never award business by default
      • Get outside input
      • Competitively bid projects
      • Avoid proprietary protocols between network layers
  • 21. Strategic Planning Assumption
    • Organizations that proactively assess and negotiate for network support and maintenance can reduce yearly support fees by at least 20 percent (0.7 probability).
  • 22. Four Steps for Providing Efficient Maintenance
    • Negotiate and competitively bid
    • Understand market dynamics — discounts have changed!
    • Total contract, percent covered and contract length determine discount
    • Understand what coverage you need
    • Self spare basic infrastructure — especially devices with little software change
    • Look at refurb market for spares
    • Look to managed services
    • Bundled solution for equipment, maintenance and support
    • Treat level 2 and level 3 as utility
    • Consider other vendors for varying service models (free software upgrades, lifetime warranty…)
    • Just pay for 'service' not maintenance
    1 2 3 4
  • 23. Aligning Support to Delivery Communications are managed by a single, central organization, including any remote sites; all infrastructure spending is controlled centrally Each business unit manages its own communications and spending, operating independently of other business units Corporate infrastructure group is responsible for own communications as well as coordinating division units, as shown by the dotted lines
    • Economies of scale, efficiency
    • Cost visibility & control
    • Easier development/ integration of enterprise applications
    • Responsive to local needs
    • Business awareness
    • Rapid development and deployment of solutions
    • Combines benefits of both decentralized and centralized
    • Balances central and local needs
    • Traditionally less flexible
    • Isolated from the business
    • Less responsive to local needs
    • High cost due to duplication
    • Difficult to share data or expertise
    • Architectural diffusion
    • Less efficient due to duplication, coordination and overhead
    • Requires stronger governance
    Enterprise organization model Advantages Disadvantages Characteristics Decentralized Federated Business unit Contact center technology group
  • 24. Adopting Shared Network Services
    • Benefits through:
      • Aggregation
      • Consolidation
      • Simplification
      • Standardization
    • Cost and service focused
    • Making it work
      • Governing council
      • Operating standards
      • Client relationship
      • Client-focused team and SLAs
      • Common interests
      • Capable sourcing and service delivery
    Agreed Services Charges/ Payments Shared Services Provider Customer 1 Customer 2 Customer 3
    • Resourcing :
    • Insourced
    • Bought-in
    • Outsourced
    • Defined set of services and fees
    • Service-level agreements
    • Client relationship processes
    Ownership and Governance Shared Services Centralized Services
  • 25. Approaches to Shared Services
    • 'Whole-of-Government' or Enterprise Approach
      • Large number of participants (can be 100+)
      • Common in State Govt jurisdictions
      • Usually involve internal, transactional processes and broad infrastructure capabilities. Initiatives typically involve major changes
    • Joint Initiative Approach
      • Moderate to large number of participants (typically 10 -15 foundation members, can grow to 70+)
      • Common in Municipal/Local Govt jurisdictions and geographic regions
      • Can involve a wide variety of sharable processes and capabilities
    • Domain or Cluster Approach
      • Modest number of participants (typically 5 - 10)
      • Common in Federal and State jurisdictions
      • Can involve the full range of sharable services. Increasingly being used as part of a 'whole of Government' approach
    • Limited Partnership
      • Small number of participants (typically 2 to 6)
      • Common in Municipal/Local Govt and between jurisdictions (e.g. multiple State Governments) and geographic locales
      • Can cover any sharable process and capability, often driven by a common 'pain point'
    Broad Scale/Scope Limited Scale/Scope Voluntary Mandatory Hardest Easiest
  • 26. Aligning Operational Cost to Need Frequency – How Often You Do It Importance – How Critical Is It Size of Bubble = Difficulty Most companies focus on these things… … but ignore these things
  • 27. Plan First, Then Build/Buy Network Services Corporate Strategic Plan Mission and strategic direction Markets and products Competitive positioning Network Plan Business or net needs Technologies or services Design and configuration Sourcing Timing Capital & operating budgets IT Architecture Applications Infrastructure Operations Management processes Sourcing Pull a Team Together to Analyze… Business Needs Network Needs Selected Services Network Services Analysis Applications, traffic types Growth Site types or locations Cost constraints Degree of control Security Risk profile Bandwidth or growth Connectivity Service levels Availability Features or functions Network Plans: Now Even More Relevant Global Widget Services Needs . . . . .
  • 28. Recommendations
    • Build a two to three year prioritized communications plan
    • Adopt shared services model
    • Plan on infrastructure overlays to provide value-added functionality with 18-24 months (or better) ROI
    • Focus investments on application performance, network-based security, wireless and mobility, IP WANs and converged voice
    • Network teams should take on more responsibility for security operations
    • Consider the capabilities of alternate suppliers
    • Evaluate the importance of maintenance on low-value network equipment
  • 29. Recommendations
    • Change Past Design Criteria
      • Don't blindly follow
      • Don't buy screen phones if you have a PC on your desk
      • Don't do 1 Gigabit Ethernet to the desktop
      • Use Internet arbitrage
      • Upgrade the network, not the bandwidth
      • Upgrade the business, not the technology
    • Change the business by investing in
      • UC
      • Applications Acceleration and WAN Optimization
      • Intelligent mobile devices (during refresh)
      • WLAN (with the ability to support voice)
    • Spend money, but spend it in the right places and return the rest to stakeholders.
  • 30. The Future of Government Communications Networks Joe Skorupa Research VP