AIS Business Growth & Frequency Demand

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AIS Business Growth & Frequency Demand

  1. 1. Business Growth & Frequency Demand By Saran Phaloprakarn Advanced Info. Services PLC.
  2. 2. Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region Cisco Forecasts 11.2 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017 Smartphones Lead Traffic GrowthSmartphones Lead Traffic Growth Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013
  3. 3. Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013 Mobile Video Will Generate Over 66 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017 Smartphone (% of Data Consumption) Tablet (% of Data Consumption) Video/Communications Information Web Browsing Social Networking Music/Audio Streaming Top Applications for Data Consumption
  4. 4. Mobile Video Services in Thailand AIS Movie Store
  5. 5. Japan: The number of smartphone subs trend/forecast (conducted in 2013. 3) # of smartphone subs # of feature phone subs Ratio of smartphone subs(million) 20 40 60 80 120 100 140 2013.32009.3 2010.3 2011.3 2012.3 2014.3 2015.3 2016.3 2017.3 2018.3 130 110 90 70 50 30 10 Source: MM research http://www.m2ri.jp/newsreleases/main.php?id=010120130328500
  6. 6. Japan : Mobile data traffic growth ~ Latest government (MIC) statistics in Dec. 2012~ Monthly data traffic per subscriber Downlink: 760 MB Uplink: 86.3 MB Total: 846 MB 564 626 709 883 1018 1251 1430 1799 2063 2425 2528 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2010.06 2010.09 2010.12 2011.03 2011.06 2011.09 2011.12 2012.03 2012.06 2012.09 2012.12 (bps) One subscriber average traffic +11% +25% +15% +23% +14% +13% 77% increase for a year +26% +15% +18% +4%
  7. 7. Operator Technology Frequency band Bandwidth 2012 Total BW 2012 Bandwidth 2015f Total BW 2015f NTT DOCOMO 61.5 M subs WCDMA 800MHz 10 MHz 45 MHz 5 MHz 15 MHz 1.7GHz 20 MHz - MHz 2.1GHz 15 MHz 10 MHz FD-LTE 700MHz - MHz 25 MHz 10 MHz 65 MHz 800MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 1.5GHz 15 MHz 15 MHz 1.7GHz - MHz 20 MHz 2.1GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz KDDI 37.7 M subs CDMA2000 (1x+EVDO) 800MHz 5 MHz 15 MHz 5 MHz 5 MHz 2.1GHz 10 MHz - MHz FD-LTE (incl. pico) 700 MHz - MHz 30 MHz 10 MHz 50 MHz 800MHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 1.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 2.1GHz 10 MHz 20 MHz Softbank 32.5 M subs WCDMA * DC-HSPA 900MHz 5 MHz 30 MHz 5 MHz 25 MHz 1.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 2.1GHz 15 MHz 10 MHz FD-LTE 900MHz - MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz 2.1GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz eAccess 4.3 M subs W-CDMA 1.7GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 5 MHz 5 MHz FD-LTE 700 MHz - MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz 1.7GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz Total Bandwidth 165 MHz 205 MHz WCP AXGP (TD-LTE) 2.5GHz 20 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz UQ WiMAX > WIMAX 2.1 2.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz http://www6.atwiki.jp/k-p/PairedSpectrumUnpaired
  8. 8. Thailand: The number of 3G smart phones trend/forecast Source: Thailand Telecommunications Report Q2 2013 Business Monitor international (BMI)
  9. 9. If 3G 2100 MHz auction did not happen, Thai Telecommunication Industry will suffer spectrum crisis… There were 45 MHz for mobile broadband From Cisco research, we may assume 10x data traffic demand in Y2018 Then we need 10x of spectrum or 450 MHz!!! Y2012 Y2018
  10. 10. Approximately 3x capacity gain What can we do?? 1. Increase Spectrum 2. WCDMA  OFDMA 4. WiFi Off load 6. Beam forming 3. Densification & Small Cell 5. MIMO Need another 3.3x
  11. 11. Thailand Mobile Broadband Spectrum Year Total Bandwidth 2012  CAT 850 MHz [15 MHz]  DTAC 850 MHz [10 MHz]  AIS 900 MHz [ 5 MHz]  TOT 2.1 GHz [15 MHz] 45 MHz 2013  AWN 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]  RF 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]  DTN 2.1 GHz [15 MHz] 90 MHz 2014 - 2018  Auction 1800 MHz [75 MHz]  Auction 900 MHz [17.5 MHz]  Deduct 30 MHz to maintain 2G (10MHz x 3 operators) 152.5 MHz
  12. 12. … beyond 2018  700 MHz  2.3 GHz  2.6 GHz  …
  13. 13. Thank you

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