Update on the Japanese Rare Earth Market

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Mr. Shigeo Nakamura provides an update on the Japanese rare earth market since the tragic earthquake and tsunami hit Japan at M

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Update on the Japanese Rare Earth Market

  1. 1. Update on the Japanese Rare Earth marketsMetal Page Minor Metal conference in Beijing September 13th-17th AMJ Shigeo Nakamura
  2. 2. Environmental Economics and Environmental Metals Environmental Energy saving issues technology New Energy Sensor Fuel cells, Technology LED(Ga,In) hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles Solar Battery(CIGS,CdTe,Si) HEMS Wind power(NdFeB Dy) Geo Thermal (Ti stainless) Lighter(Ti、Mg) Biomass(Ti, Stainless) Digital Smaller(RE Magnet) Technology OTEC(Waste heat recovery) Li-Ion Battery(Li,Co) Smart Grid(Superconducting)N-H Battery(Ni, Nd, La,) 3R Nuclear power (NdFeB Ti Zr) Technology Rare metal material Catalyst (automobile emissions):Pt,Pd,Os,Rd, market is expanding Cracking of heavy oil(Mo,V,Co,Ni,W etc.) more globally Photo catalyst(Ti)
  3. 3. Rare Earth Import Trends from 2001 till end of 2010 41,407Mt 39,724Mt 34,330Mt 29,600Mt 18,263Mt 30,515Mt As MaterialTotal quantity from January till June 2011 is 13,838Mt. 3
  4. 4. Rare Earth import share from China and other countries. 90% 90% 90% 86% 85% 77% 80%Rare Earth import increased 930% in total amount for first half of2011 compared from last year’s first half. 4
  5. 5. Background of the recent drop in RE market• Price adjustments in reaction to soaring market.• After the earthquake, (April to June) of this year due to increased imports of inventory accumulation, since July the stock demand decline.• Demand decreased In August because of summer season• To determine the benefit speculators rushed to sell low in a hurry• Australia (Lynas) and U.S. (Molycorp) came out in the future stability of supply.
  6. 6. Rare Earth chart (Nd & FeDy) From US$60 to US$460(8 times increase) From US$280 to US$2,960( 10 times) 6ジャスミン革命以降の異常な値上がり。
  7. 7. Rae Earth chart (La2O3 & CeO2)La Metal : from US$10 to US$150 and down to$90Ce Metal : from US$10 to US$150 and down to US$88 7
  8. 8. World reserves of RE resources• World reserves REO resources: 99Million t• Mining amount in 2009: 124,000 tons• Reserve-production ratio: 798 Years• Chinese Reserves:36,000,000 tons• USA Reserves:13,000,000 tons• CIS Reserves:19,000,000 tons• Australia Reserves:5,400,000 tons• India reserves:3,100,000 tons• Vietnam Reserves: over 2,000,000 Tons 8
  9. 9. Supply and demand of resources and avoidance of resource shortageSupply of the resources New development of new deposit Risk avoidance Shortage of the resources Development of substitution materialsNew demand for resources & Recycle Now Future 9
  10. 10. Development of substitution materials From Nikkei of Aug. 19th 2011• Panasonic, Mitsubishi Chemical, Industrial Technology Research: 20% reduction in Tb and Dy for phosphor performance.• Hitachi and the University of Nottingham, UK: Development of alternative magnetic materials containing Dy.• TDK and Toyota: 40% success in reducing motor Dy in HEV• ULVAC, Mitsui, Tohoku University: ITO (transparent electrode) during development goals to halve the amount of indium.• Nissan Motor Co. and Nagoya University: Developing alternative materials for automotive exhaust gas purification apparatus platinum.• The Japanese government announced that a budget of several billion yen aid for 10 years from 2012 for the development of substitution materials of rare earths. (Nikkei, 5 September)
  11. 11. Rare earth project Map Holidas Lake Stepnogorsk Great western Kazakhstan mineralSumitomo Corp 3,000Mt-5,000Mt 3,000Mt Green land Lugingol,Mush Greenland Mineral gai Khudag 20,000Mt Mongol 10,000Mt Thor Lake Avalon venture Dongpao 10,000Mt Vietnam Mt.Pas Sojiz/toyota Molycorp 5000-7000Mt 40,000Mt Nolans bore Arafura 20,000Mt Stenkanbskural Orissa South Africa India Mount Weld Toyota Great western Lynas mineral 11 4, 000Mt 22,000Mt 2,700Mt
  12. 12. Vietnam Dong Pao Rare Earth depositDong Pao deposit was researched by JOMEC from 2001and Bastenasite ore boby contained 3,170,000Mt at REO7.06% to 10.63%. Sojiz and Toyota tsusho is developing. 12
  13. 13. Mongolian Rare Earth deposit Khalzan Burged Mushgai khudag Khan BogdOther REE deposits Lugiin golMushgai Khudag REE deposit 13
  14. 14. Kazakhstan Rare Earth ProjectJOGMEC sign contract for technical assistance of Rare Earth recovery from Uranium residue of Kazatomprom. Sumitomo Corporation established the Rare Earth Joint venture company with Kazatomprom for 3,000Mt REO base project. 14
  15. 15. Mountain Pass MolycorpSumitomo corporation will studyUS$ 130 million investmentwith JOGMEC for stable supplyto Japanese market of REmaterials. • Molycorp will increase production plan from 20,000Mt to 40,000Mt (REO). 15
  16. 16. Mt. Weld project Australia• Sojiz and Rynas agreed 90,000 Mt of RE supply for 10 years to Japanese market.• JOGMEC and SOJIZ takes 30% of the share from Lynas in 2011. ・Australian Lynas will produce 22,000Mt of Rare Earth from 2013. ・Separation and refining process in Malaysia settled after floating ore dressing in Australia. 16
  17. 17. Thor Lake Project CanadaY La Ce Pr Nd Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu55% 0.1 0.02 0.1 0.2 1.8 0.7 11.6 2.5 15.6 3.1 5.4 0.6 2.2 0.7 17
  18. 18. Others Rare Earth Project• Nolans Bore by Arafura Resources Limited(Australia)• Frontier Rare Earth project (South Africa)• Great Western Minerals(LCM) western cape province• Vergenoeg Mining Company (south Africa)• Greenland minerals and energy (Greenland)• Pitinga mines( Brazil) Neo Material & Mitsubishi corporation• Kutessai by Summit Atom rare earth company (Kazakhstan) Kazatom prom and Sumitomo corporation• Chavara, Manavalakurichi (Indian rare earth)• Ytterby(Canada) Benson(USA) Laocai(Vietnam) Mabel creek(Australia) as Grass-root exploration by JOGMEC 18
  19. 19. Update on the Japanese minor metals marketsMetal Page Minor Metal conference in Beijing September 13th-17th AMJ Shigeo Nakamura
  20. 20. Minor Metal Market Trends in Japanese market• New business in Japan after the earthquake 3.11• Overview of electronics, functional, structural materials and base metals.• The development of environmental metals for the new energy and HEV fields.• New research and development and international relocation and hollowing out of Japanese industry
  21. 21. Classification of the Metals Market Element character Market Uneven Influence to Scale distribution The market (A) In,Cd Ga, The field of IT materials 100Mt~ Uneven Negotiated are easy to be affected by 10,000MtElectronics Ge,Ta, Nb, the down stream industry distribution transaction Use Co, Li, Sr, than the upper stream. speculation & Bi, manipulation (B) Ti, RE, Zr, Functional material’s 10,000Mt Uneven It is easy to get market is complicated ~Functional Sb, Mg,W, distribution on artificial because of the political 100,000Mt Use Mo,Te,Se trade policy. reason. (C) Ni,Cr,Mn, It is easy to be affected by 100,000Mt quantity of The influence of the business conditions of ~Structure Mo,W、V, a stainless steel and steel existence is stainless steel 1,000,000 FeNb,Si market. Mt enough fields arematerials strong (D) Cu, Zn, Pb, LME commodity Over quantity of financeBase Metal Al, Sn, Ni 1Million existence is phenomenon is ton enough remarkable
  22. 22. Rare Metal Function and the Use of environmental metal in advanced IndustriesGa,Ge,In,Te,Bi,Cd, A compound semiconductor, the field of FPD, a target, LED, a Pet resin catalyst, light industry, infrared rays, a fluorescent substance, others(Electronic materials)R.E. (Same as above) Optical lens, magnetism, fluorescence, a catalyst, electron, superconductor capacitor, optics, Hard Alloy, electron, special steel and heat-resistantTa Nb(Same as above) Magnetism materials, ferrite, X-rays cover, Ceramic condenser, pipe ballSr Ba (Same as above) glass Atomic energy, fireproof thing, electronic materials, fine ceramic, sensorZr Hf (Same as above)Li Be(Same as above) A secondary battery, special glass, an oxide single crystal, aviation, spring materialsTi Mg(function material) Aviation / Desalination conversion / chemical plant / generator / atomic energy / iron and steel / Al additionW Mo( Same as above) Hard alloy tool, Heiss, electronic parts, a catalyst, an alloy, a burning boardNi Co( Same as above) Stainless steel, an alloy, plating, a battery, magnetism, a catalyst, heat resistanceSb Se( Same as above) incombustibility agent, a battery, a decrease friction alloy, glass clearness agent, Mn refinement
  23. 23. Electronics Metals (Indium & Ga) Up TrendGallium and indium with a peak in Mayand then, conditions have remained weak 23
  24. 24. Electronics Metals Trend(Cobalt & LiCO3) StableLithium and cobalt are heavy stock, still tendsto lower future quotations ’10 Jan. ’09 June 24 Co is US$/Lb LiCo3 is RMB/Kg
  25. 25. Functional Metals Trend (Titanium, APT) going up MRB ChartTitanium and tungsten have a strong demandin anticipation of high prices yet. ’09 June ’10 Jan. 25
  26. 26. Functional Metals Trend (Antimony, Selenium) going upSb and Se has peaked out in April,then followed by weak. ’09 June ’10 Jan. 26
  27. 27. Base Metals Trend(LME Cu & LME Al) Down & Up MRB Chart Copper and aluminum are weak in terms of supply and demand, then future trend will be depend on Chinese demand. ’10 Jan. ’09 June 27
  28. 28. Precious metals trend (Comex Gold & LME Ni)Financial markets have a risk aversion to buying gold.Nickel is a weak trend in the stainless steel market. 28
  29. 29. Market size of digital industry(3.3 Trillion Yen) (3 Trillion Yen) (28Trillion Yen) (22 Trillion YenNonferrous metal, Semiconductor Personnel computerNoble metal, Silicon Wafer Micro processorRare Metals Photo Mask DRAM System LSIMagnetic materials Photo resist Analog DiscreetFluorescent (14 Trillion yen)substance (5Trillion Yen) (8 Trillion Yen) Mobile phoneCondenser Flat Panel display Flat Panel DisplaySemiconductor Glass Filter Liquid Crystal marketSemi conductive Back light Plasma Display (35trillion yen)compound Color filter EL Liquid crystal TVBattery materials LCDDriver Field emission plasma TV polalizing Plate DVDHeat electric Light refractorelement Digital mobile musicLenz materials (1 Trillion Yen) (11 Trillion yen) game console digital camera &video Electronics partsHard tool materials GeneralPowder metallurgy electronics printed wiring boardLight metals parts/Epoxy Ceramic condenser (70 Trillion yen) Car industrySuper alloy resin/GlassMateri crystal oscillatorCatalyst materials als/Alminium connector switch Fine chemicals plate/Ceramicmaterials plate/Crystals Rare Metal Electronics Electronic device Set machinery 3.3 Trillion Yen 9 Trillion Yen 47Trillion yen 141 Trillion
  30. 30. Othello Game ofthe Industrial structure (1) Resource industry (2) Material Industry (3) Parts Industry (4) Assembly industry (5) Intelligent Industry
  31. 31. Environmental field supports to the Japanese economy.Electronic parts Mobile Information home liquid crystal 96 trillion Yen phone ElectricityFlat Panel Display Digital camera Digital appliance Clean Energy 1trillion Yen Market LIB・NH A fuel cell solar battery Rare Earth Magnet Energy Saving 78 Trillion Yen New Energy ECO-MACHINARY car exhaust gaspurification catalyst LED Environmental 5.3 Trillion Yen Photo-catalyst safeguard toxic substance resolution
  32. 32. The trend of the embironmental metals demand. Electronics materials Functional materials(information household appliance) (HEV, Aviation and New Energy) Environmental Metals Demand Structure materials Base Metals (Eco House) (Social infrastructure)
  33. 33. Environmental metals use Electronics Parts Ga,Ta,Ni,Zr,Nb,Pt Mobile phone LCD RE(Dy,Ho,Y) In W,Co,Ti,Mo,V Digital Camera Hard alloy tool Optical article Energy-saving Secondary Battery Li,Co,Ni,RE home appliance LIB・NH flat panel television Rare Earth Magnet Nd,Dy,Co advanced robot Small motor car exhaust gas Pd,Pt,Rd,Ce 自動車purification catalyst (HEV,EV) Special Steel Ni,Cr,Mo,Co,Mn,V Car Steel sheet
  34. 34. Japans future new businessGeothermal power Solar Battery LED・Fluorescent Ni,Cr,Mo CIGS Ga,In,As (Stainless) Cd,Te (LED) W,Co,Ta Si Solar Y,Tb,Eu,La,Ce (Drilling Bid) (Fluorescent) Ru-Type Wind Power ECO House Energy &Nd,Dy,SmFeN Environmental Smart Grid(RE Magnet) issues HEMS Hydrogen FuelNuclear Power Cell ECO Car EV・HEV Ni,Cr,Mo Pt,Pd(Catalyst) NdFeB(RE Magnet) (Stainless Steal) Pd(Hydrogen Li,Co,Ni,Mm Ti (Cooling Parts) Separation Membrane) (LIB, Ni-H) Zr ( Fuel cladding ) Pt,Pd,Rh(Catalyst) 34
  35. 35. Conclusion (Future Forecast)• Electronic materials market, once the minor metals market was unstable and will recover, increasing speculation and price manipulation.• EV and HEV market is accelerating, and rare metal material market is expanding more globally.• Remarkable development of the secondary battery market, the market becomes more active, such as lithium and cobalt and rare earth elements.• Development of new energy field (especially solar power and wind power) will influenced to the expansion of rare metals and rare earth market segments,• After the earthquake, Japanese materials industry is forced to expand to overseas. Meanwhile, research and development for new energy and environment sector will be growing more.
  36. 36. Thank you for your attention AMJ Shigeo Nakamura http://www.amjc.co.jp/

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