EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2012:              TRENDS & PROSPECTS                 Quarterly Report (Q3/2012)A quarterly insights r...
Copyright © 2012 European Travel CommissionEuropean Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)All rights reserved. The ...
European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)                                                       1Foreword            ...
2                                                      European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Executive Summary   ...
European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)                                                                    ...
4                                                              European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Global Econom...
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European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)                                                  9ADR has grown in ...
10                                                                  European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Key Sour...
European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)                                                                    ...
12                                                                 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)The Itali...
European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)                                                                    ...
14                                                                 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Non-Europ...
European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)                                                                    ...
16                                                                    European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)  Arr...
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects
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European Tourism Q3/12 Trends&Prospects

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Informe de la European Travel Commission correspondiente al tercer cuatrimestre de 2012, con análisis de tendencias y perspectivas.
http://www.visionesdelturismo.com/turismo-europeo-en-2012-tendencias-y-previsiones-q312/

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  1. 1. EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2012: TRENDS & PROSPECTS Quarterly Report (Q3/2012)A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group of the European Travel Commission (ETC) by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Brussels, October 2012 ETC Market Intelligence Report
  2. 2. Copyright © 2012 European Travel CommissionEuropean Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only. While we encourage distribution via publicly accessiblewebsites, this should be done via a link to ETCs corporate website,www.etc-corporate.org, referring visitors to the Market Intelligence Section.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication donot imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the ExecutiveUnit of the European Travel Commission. Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database / http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and are for interpretation by users according to their needs.Published and printed by the European Travel CommissionRue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite: www.etc-corporate.orgEmail: info@etc-corporate.orgISSN No: 2034-9297This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence GroupPhoto © iStockphoto / Martin Wahlborg – Gothenburg city canal, Sweden
  3. 3. European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 1Foreword Despite ongoing economic troubles, including a fall back into recession for Travel demand the Eurozone, tourism within Europe has continued to grow with increased continues to grow arrivals from several key origin markets. However, the rate of growth has throughout 2012 slowed in recent months. Intra-regional demand has grown as European travellers seek cost savings with shorter trips. And despite recent slowing, European destinations are also attracting more visitors from key long-haul origin markets. With data now available for much of the peak summer season it is likely that these trends are reflective of demand for the year as a whole. European carriers report continued growth in air demand, with strongest performance evident for flights within the continent. Longer-haul demand is However, exhibiting signs of slowing in response to a sputtering global economy. performance has slowed significantly Average occupancy rates of European hotels show a small decline for the year to date and notably in Southern European destinations. Yet, there are clear continued gains in some smaller Eastern European countries. Hotels have been able to raise rates but these gains remain subdued, especially in the face of other cost increases, and operators remain under Cost savings are pressure. Data suggest a rise in demand for less expensive options being sought in the including a shorter length of stay on tourism trips and a rise in non-hotel uncertain economic demand. While growth in arrivals continues, the contribution to revenue in environment the tourism industry remains under pressure. The near term outlook faces continued headwinds and Tourism Economics expects growth in European tourism to be both modest and uneven in the coming year as the Eurozone fends off a financial crisis and works toward policies that balance the objectives of fiscal order and economic growth. Nonetheless, the recent growth of both regional and long haul markets, even in this challenging economic climate, portray the resilience of the European travel industry once again. We trust you will find the analysis in this report helpful as you track your own destination’s performance and seek to anticipate future trends. Best wishes, Leslie Vella Chairman ETC Market Intelligence Group © European Travel Commission, October 2012
  4. 4. 2 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Executive Summary European travel proves resilient in the face of the weak and uncertain global Foreign visits to select destinations economic environment, with growth in 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago visits reported for most destinations 20 including from both long-haul and European markets. 15 However, growth has slowed as the year 10 has progressed indicated by air transport and accommodation data as well as 5 available arrivals data. Passenger load factors have reached a plateau while hotel 0 Iceland Croatia Lithuania Slovenia Montenegro Germany Romania Netherlands Slovakia Estonia Poland Austria Latvia Serbia Malta Cyprus Belgium Ireland Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Italy Spain United Kingdom occupancy for Europe as a whole has fallen slightly. -5 This is partly explained by cost-saving -10 behaviours to face the uncertain economic environment, with an increase Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination in intra-regional as well as domestic tourism demand. Hotel demand also appears to be weaker than total tourism demand indicating a rise in demand for European airlines passenger load factor other forms of accommodation. weekly load factor, % 90 Among European airlines, long-haul air traffic demand has shown the greatest 85 2012 slowdown while intra-European demand 80 remains stout. 75 The strongest growth in European tourism demand is concentrated in smaller, 70 emerging Eastern destinations which tend 2011 to involve lower costs than some of the 65 more developed Western destination 60 markets. 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Prices, and therefore revenue and profits, Source: AEA remain under pressure. Hotel average daily rates (ADR) in most markets are still lower than pre-recession peaks, especially once wider inflation is taken Occupancy trends in Europe into account. % change year ago 2010 2011 2012 (Jan-Aug) 10 The economic outlook remains uncertain although the near-term risk of Eurozone 8 break-up appears to have faded. The 6 longer-run outlook remains uncertain and risks of further, deeper recessions in the 4 future remain. 2 TourMIS data on arrivals from key source markets echo the trends seen in the 0 industry data. Intra-European travel is -2 benefitting from a shift away from more expensive, long-haul travel. Japanese -4 Europe Eastern Northern Southern Western arrivals continue to rebound following last Europe Europe Europe Europe year’s natural and nuclear disasters in Source: STR Global Japan.© European Travel Commission, October 2012
  5. 5. European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 32012 Tourism Performance Summary2012 European travel data indicate that international travel to the region hascontinued to expand into the peak summer season but has slowed. Some of thelarge established Western European destinations have posted growth in the firsteight months of 2012 although Central and Eastern European destinationscontinue to lead the way. However, hotel performance data present a moremixed picture of performance. Of the 27 reported countries, 17 are showingdeclines in occupancy through August. This difference can partly be explainedby supply trends but may also be due to cost savings and a rise in non-hotelaccommodation, while average length of stay is also falling. 2012 Performance, Year to Date Tourist Arrivals and Nights Hotel Performance, Jan-Aug International Arrivals International Nights Hotel Occupancy Hotel ADR (LCU)Country % ytd to month Country % ytd to month Country % ytd Country % ytdIceland 16.2 Aug Poland 12.8 Jun Iceland 18.7 Estonia 16.1Poland 14.2 Jun Lithuania 11.2 Jun Russia 7.3 Italy 12.9Spain 14.2 Aug Latvia 11.1 Jun Poland 6.6 Hungary 9.5Romania 12.4 Jul Romania 9.7 Jul Slovakia 6.5 Romania 7.4Lithuania 11.8 Jun Serbia 8.6 Aug Czech Republic 4.8 Ireland 6.6Germany 7.7 Aug Germany 8.5 Aug Malta 3.3 Poland 6.6Hungary 7.3 Aug Spain 8.5 Aug Estonia 2.5 Finland 6.0Czech Republic 6.9 Jun Finland 7.8 Jul Germany 1.7 Netherlands 5.5Latvia 6.4 Jun Hungary 7.3 Aug Ireland 1.6 Czech Republic 5.4Serbia 6.1 Aug Croatia 6.3 Sep Hungary 0.0 Denmark 4.0Slovenia 5.8 Jul Czech Rep. 6.0 Jun Austria -0.3 Turkey 3.9Croatia 5.1 Sep Malta 5.9 Aug Turkey -0.3 France 3.6Netherlands 4.9 Jun Slovenia 5.2 Jul Portugal -0.9 Portugal 3.0Austria 4.6 Jul Austria 4.8 Jul Finland -1.0 Iceland 2.9Montenegro 4.6 Aug Sweden 3.9 Aug Denmark -1.1 Germany 2.4Cyprus 4.0 Aug Portugal 3.5 Jul Norway -1.3 Austria 1.5Estonia 4.0 Aug Montenegro 3.4 Aug France -1.5 Russia 1.5United Kingdom 3.0 May Netherlands 3.2 Jun Belgium -1.6 Spain 1.4Slovakia 1.4 Mar Estonia 2.0 Aug Romania -2.3 Lithuania 1.4Belgium 1.3 Jun Bulgaria 1.3 Jun Spain -2.3 Norway 1.3Bulgaria 1.3 Aug Luxembourg 1.2 Aug Lithuania -2.4 Belgium 0.6Malta 0.7 Aug Norway 1.2 Aug Italy -3.3 Switzerland -2.6Italy -0.5 Jul Slovakia 0.3 Mar Netherlands -3.3 Malta -3.8Ireland -1.4 Aug Belgium -0.1 Jun Switzerland -3.9 Greece -9.8 Cyprus -0.9 Jun Greece -5.2 Iceland -12.7 Switzerland -5.8 Aug Malta -8.9 Slovakia -18.8Sources: TourMIS (tourist arrivals and nights including resident and inbound), STR Global (hotel occupancy and ADR)Measures used for nights and arrivals vary by countryBased on data available through 18 October, 2012ADR = average daily rate, LCU = local currency unit. Please refer to the glossary included at the end of the report for more details. Foreign visits to select destinations Foreign visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Switzerland Luxembourg Montenegro Iceland Croatia Lithuania Slovenia Romania Montenegro Netherlands Slovakia Estonia Romania Germany Austria Latvia Denmark Netherlands Slovakia Malta Estonia Portugal Norway Poland Austria Finland Cyprus Latvia Serbia Malta Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Cyprus Belgium Ireland Croatia Hungary Czech Republic Lithuania Spain Bulgaria Italy Slovenia Sweden Spain Germany Poland Serbia United Kingdom Belgium -5 -5 -10 -10 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination © European Travel Commission October 2012
  6. 6. 4 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Global Economy: Could growth surprise on the upside in 2013?  The summer Eurozone financial market rally was partly reversed in the second half of September. Recent data show that the Eurozone is still in recession, and there are few signs that the World: fiscal tightening Discretionary fiscal tightening, % of GDP, 2012-2013 downturn is easing. Household purchasing power Spain is expected to fall for the third consecutive year in 2012, hit by low nominal wage increases, falls Italy in employment, cuts in government subsidies UK and persistently high inflation. Oxford Economics thinks that the recession that started Eurozone in Q4 2011 will continue throughout 2012 and, France for the year as a whole, forecasts a 0.6% fall in US GDP. Germany  At the September Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Japan Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a potentially 0 1 2 3 4 open-ended programme of asset purchases, Source : Oxford Economics/IMF involving buying US$40 billion per month of mortgage-backed securities.  The Fed signalled a strong commitment to boosting the recovery stressing that policy would remain ‘highly accommodative’ even after the recovery strengthens.  Japan also relaxed policy last month and the UK is likely to do so again later this year. And the ECB’s looser stance since late 2011 has started to improve monetary trends in the Eurozone. World: Advanced economies money growth Against this background global stocks are up % annual growth in real broad money 20% on a year ago, and the question arises as l 12 to whether world economic growth could 10 Eurozone surprise on the upside in 2013. 8  However, the global economy still faces major 6 headwinds. Not least of these is the fiscal 4 tightening planned in the Eurozone and other Average of US, UK, 2 major economies through next year, which Eurozone & Japan threatens to blunt the impact of loose monetary 0 policy. As it is, broad money supply growth in -2 the major economies – while improving – is still -4 only consistent with modest GDP growth. -6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012  On top of this, the soft patch in the emerging Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics economies including China has continued into Q3. The slowdown in Asia has also hit Japan, which now risks dropping back into technical recession in second half of 2012.  Reflecting these headwinds, Oxford Economics’ forecasts for global real GDP growth in 2012 and 2013 are 3.0% and 3.3% respectively. Given the continued downside risks from issues such as the US ‘fiscal cliff’ and the Eurozone financial crisis, it is quite likely that 2013 will see policymakers once again having to increase their efforts to strengthen the global recovery.© European Travel Commission, October 2012
  7. 7. European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 5Recent Industry PerformanceSlowdown but still growth in 2012 Reflecting the sluggish global economic recovery, international air travel is expanding at a reduced, but robust pace. Slower air travel demand means additional supply is sufficient to match the additional capacity and load factors have reached a plateau. Although Eastern European hotel demand held up in the first eight months of 2012, all other regions showed next to minimal growth prompting a small contraction in European occupancy rates.Air TransportGlobal international air passenger traffic flows have International air passenger traffic growth % year, RPKslowed significantly in summer 2012 and are well RPK = revenue passenger kmsbelow the +7% year-on-year advances recorded in 18 3 monththe February-April period. Air traffic, measued in 15 moving 12 averageRevenue passenger kilometers (RPK), reached 5.3% 9in August following a sharp deceleration in July of just 63.5% growth. 3Growth in 2012 to date has been driven by expansion 0in Middle Eastern air traffic, including some rebound -3 -6 Icelandic Ashfrom the slowdown in 2011 due to the Arab Spring. Cloud Impact -9The longer-run trend is consistent with rising travel -12demand from the region as well as increased market Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12share for Middle eastern destinations. The slower Source: IATAdemand in July is likely due in part to the timing ofRamadan.The moderation in air passenger traffic flows reflects the heightened uncertaintyfacing consumers worldwide. Air passenger travel appears to be moving in linewith the broader, sluggish economic environment. International air passenger growth by region International air passenger growth by region % year, RPK % year, RPK 2010 20 Jun-2012 20 2011 Jul-2012 2012 Aug-2012 asd 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin Mid.East N.America World Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin Mid.East N.America World Source: IATA America Source: IATA America © European Travel Commission October 2012
  8. 8. 6 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)European passenger traffic growth remains robust in 2012, benefiting fromrobust intra-European and domestic expansion. Revenue passenger kilometersfor European airlines have grown by 6.2% in the first eight months with someslowdown evident as the year has progressed.During the same period, European airline cross-border air traffic has weakenedsomewhat, posting a 4.3% RPK advance. Europe-North America demandremains lacklustre at 4.3%. Meanwhile, Europe-Far East air travel has beeneven more subdued and only recorded a 3.3% increase. As was observed in2008, European travellers have shifted away from long haul trips. As aconsequence, intra-European RPK has risen to well above its previous peak.European airline passenger traffic European airline passenger traffic RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago 40 40 Total European Europe- Americas Airlines 30 30 20 20 Europe- Total European Asia Airlines 10 10 0 0-10 -10 RPK = revenue passenger kms RPK = revenue passenger kms-20 -20 2009w40 2010w1 2010w14 2010w27 2010w40 2011w1 2011w14 2011w27 2011w40 2012w1 2012w14 2012w27 2012w40 2009w40 2010w1 2010w14 2010w27 2010w40 2011w1 2011w14 2011w27 2011w40 2012w1 2012w14 2012w27 2012w40 Source: AEA Source: AEAOn average, load factors which had strengthened through 2011 and into 2012have plateaued. There have been some marginal increases during 2012 to datedespite continued additions to capacity. Improvements may not have been ashigh as some operators would have hoped for, but it is indicative of healthydemand comparable to load factors experienced in the years prior to recession.European airlines capacity European airlines passenger load factor 4 week moving average, Available Seat Km. (ASK), % change year weekly load factor, % ago 35 90 30 25 2011 85 20 2012 15 80 10 75 5 2012 0 70 -5-10 2011 2010 65-15-20 60 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Source: AEA Source: AEA© European Travel Commission, October 2012
  9. 9. European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 7AccommodationThe global hotel industry continues to perform well in 2012. Recent STR Globaldata indicate RevPAR (revenue per available room) expanded in the first eightmonths of the year. The Americas region continues to stand out as experiencingstrong growth in all three indicators as compared to other regions. The region isdominated by the US where hotel performance continues to exceedexpectations this year. Global Hotel Performance, Jan-Aug 2012% change year ago 9 Occ ADR* RevPAR* 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Asia/Pacific Americas Europe Middle East/Africa Source: STR Global * ADR and RevPAR denominated in US$ except for EuropeEuropean hotels experienced a surprisingly strong advance of 5.5% in ADR,despite a 0.2% contraction in the occupancy rate. Although hotels are facingslowing demand, additional room supply factors into the declining occupancyrate. During the same period, Asia Pacific recorded steady ADR advancesdespite lacklustre performances in occupancy rates. Altogether this has resultedin the slowest growth in terms of RevPAR among the regions.Contrary to the experiences of Europe and Asia Pacific, the Middle East andAfrica region has recorded robust occupancy rate growth while room rates havedeteriorated. However, occupancy growth is largely an offset to large falls in2011 due to the Arab Spring. Average room rates were not cut significantly inresponse so there is limited scope to raise rates in 2012 while demand remainsbelow its long run trend in some markets. European hotel performance, Jan-Aug 2012 % change year 12 Occ ADR (€) RevPAR (€) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Europe Eastern Northern Southern Western Europe Europe Europe Europe Source: STR Global © European Travel Commission October 2012
  10. 10. 8 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Within Europe hotels in Eastern European markets continue to outperform thewider region with growth in both occupancy and ADR causing RevPAR to rise9.3% in the first eight months of the year. Although, this growth does partlyreflect the relatively smaller initial base. By contrast, Northern European hoteldemand has been subdued in 2012 to date with almost zero growth inoccupancy through August while occupancy in Southern Europe fell 1.7%. Occupancy trends in Europe % change year ago 2010 2011 2012 (Jan-Aug) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Europe Eastern Northern Southern Western Europe Europe Europe Europe Source: STR GlobalOverall European occupancy in 2012 to date has been slightly lower than in thecomparable period in 2011. As this period includes the peak summer season,occupancy for the year as a whole is expected to fall. The weaker performancein 2012 was expected to some extent as part of the slowdown from the reboundin 2010 but the scale of slowdown has been greater than hoped.Weakness is also evident in the country specific data which shows that 13 outof 25 destination countries experienced a contraction in occupancy in the firsteight months of 2012. It is also instructive to consider the level of occupancy assome of the falls have been in larger destinations with a typically high rate andwhich carry a higher weight in regional aggregation. Some of the strongergrowth rates are in the lower occupancy destinations which have greaterpotential for growth. Iceland experienced the strongest occupancy gains andrecorded an average occupancy of over 90% thus far in 2012. Hotel occupancy rates Hotel occupancy rates Jan-Aug YTD occupancy, % Jan-Aug YTD, % change year ago 100 2011 2012 14 90 12 10 80 8 70 6 60 4 50 2 40 0 30 -2 20 -4 -6 Italy Malta Israel Austria France Greece Spain Turkey Iceland Ireland UK Russia Portugal Germany Estonia Denmark Romania Poland Finland Switzerland Slovakia Czech Rep. Hungary Belgium Lithuania Netherlands Estonia UK Slovakia Poland Austria Malta France Finland Italy Greece Turkey Iceland Russia Lithuania Hungary Germany Ireland Belgium Spain Portugal Denmark Netherlands Romania Switzerland Czech Rep. Source: STR Global Source: STR Global© European Travel Commission, October 2012
  11. 11. European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 9ADR has grown in all European sub-regions in the year to date by 5.5%allowing RevPAR in Europe to rise by 5.3%. Hoteliers continue to increaseprices in an attempt to bring rates back to their previous peaks, while ongoinginflation continues to squeeze margins. ADR remains lower than previous peakrates in most destinations, especially when adjusted for inflation, and increasesare not necessarily indicative of underlying demand or confidence by hoteliers.Prices are also under pressure from consumers who appear to be seeking costsavings. Hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) Jan-Aug YTD, local currency, % change year ago 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Malta France Austria Italy Greece Turkey Iceland Ireland Russia Germany Spain Portugal Estonia Romania Denmark UK Switzerland Poland Czech Rep. Finland Slovakia Hungary Lithuania Belgium Netherlands Source: STR GlobalRevPAR fell in 7 out of 25 reporting destinations during the first eights monthsof 2012. This is a more positive picture than looking at just occupancy, but thereis little change in some of Europe’s largest destinations. However severalCentral & Eastern European destinations, including Poland, Estonia andHungary have posted above 10% increases in RevPAR. Lodging Performance - Jan-Aug 2012 % change year ago Occ ADR RevPAR Austria 0.3 2.0 2.3 Belgium -1.0 0.2 -0.7 Czech Republic 1.7 5.5 7.4 Denmark -0.7 5.5 4.7 Estonia 0.2 13.8 14.0 Finland -1.8 6.4 4.5 France -1.2 3.7 2.4 Germany 2.6 3.2 6.0 Greece -3.2 -5.6 -8.7 Hungary 3.5 8.2 12.0 Iceland 12.3 5.6 18.7 Ireland 2.1 8.5 10.8 Italy -2.8 1.3 -1.5 Lithuania 3.8 -3.6 0.1 Malta -1.0 5.1 4.1 Netherlands -0.9 0.4 -0.4 Poland 3.6 17.7 21.9 Portugal -2.1 -1.5 -3.6 Romania -1.7 6.9 5.1 Russia 6.6 2.5 9.3 Slovakia 9.4 -13.9 -5.8 Spain -1.9 3.1 1.1 Switzerland -2.4 -1.3 -3.8 Turkey 0.2 2.3 2.6 United Kingdom -2.0 4.2 2.1 Source: STR Global © European Travel Commission October 2012
  12. 12. 10 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Key Source Market PerformanceA strong recovery in 2011 gives way to more uneven growth Outbound performance in 2012 to date has been uneven in most major European source markets but with an overall downward trend. Russia continues to be the star performer with growth in almost all destinations. While US arrivals to Emerging Europe continue to increase, the UK has experienced a fall in demand from US travellers. Meanwhile, arrivals from Japan continue to recover from 2011’s disasters. Travel from European origins is slower than in 2011, but destinations still report growth, possibly at the expense of longer-haul destinations as cost savings are sought.Key intra-European marketsIn the first eight months of 2012 travel from Germany expanded to mostdestinations in Europe. In particular, German visits to Eastern Europeandestinations were robust. German travel growth to some large and moreexpensive Western European destinations, including Switzerland, UK andBelgium as well as some affordable locations slipped in the first eight months ofthe year, possibly revealing that customers are reacting to heightened economicuncertainty by cutting back on travel to more expensive locations. Visits from Germany to select destinations German visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Switzerland Croatia Lithuania Slovenia Luxembourg Montenegro Montenegro Sweden Romania Romania Netherlands Netherlands Slovakia Slovakia Estonia Estonia Austria Poland Austria Latvia Latvia Serbia Denmark Malta Malta Portugal Norway Finland Belgium Cyprus Cyprus Hungary Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Bulgaria Czech Republic Croatia Italy Iceland Lithuania Spain Spain Slovenia United Kingdom Poland Serbia Belgium -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination© European Travel Commission, October 2012
  13. 13. European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 11A similar pattern emerged for the Dutch market, with the share of travel toEastern European destinations expanding as travel to some developed marketsremains subdued. Overall travel trends from the Netherlands for 2012 to datesuggest continued growth. Visits from Netherlands to select destinations Netherlands nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Switzerland Luxembourg Montenegro Montenegro Romania Slovakia Romania Estonia Austria Slovakia Denmark Estonia Malta Austria Portugal Norway Malta Finland Cyprus Cyprus Hungary Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Croatia Bulgaria Czech Republic Lithuania Spain Croatia Italy Iceland Slovenia Sweden Lithuania Spain Slovenia Germany Germany United Kingdom Poland Serbia Poland Serbia Belgium Belgium -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destinationThe French outbound travel market also remains mixed in 2012. Of the 22destinations reporting visits data, eight experienced declines in visits while afurther three destinations recorded anaemic growth (less than 1.5%). Nightsdata supported this mixed picture, with nine out of the 26 reporting destinationsposting falls in the number of nights spent by French visitors in the first eightmonths of 2012. Strong growth is overwhelmingly to emerging Europeandestinations but also with growth to some Western and Scandinaviandestinations. Visits from France to select destinations French visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Switzerland Croatia Lithuania Montenegro Slovenia Sweden Luxembourg Romania Germany Slovakia Netherlands Montenegro Estonia Austria Poland Latvia Serbia Denmark Malta Romania Portugal Norway Slovakia Netherlands Belgium Finland Cyprus Estonia Austria Latvia Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Malta Cyprus Spain Hungary Bulgaria Czech Republic Iceland Croatia Italy Lithuania Spain Slovenia Germany United Kingdom Poland Serbia Belgium -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination © European Travel Commission October 2012
  14. 14. 12 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)The Italian outbound trend is generally weaker compared to other markets andalso shows mixed results. Of the reporting destinations, a third of the 18 showthe number of visitors fell during the first eight months of 2012. Meanwhile, 11of the 26 reporting destinations recorded declines in the number of nights spentby Italian visitors. Visits from Italy to select destinations Italian visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 60 60 78 > 96 > 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Switzerland Croatia Lithuania Montenegro Slovenia Sweden Romania Germany Netherlands Slovakia Estonia Austria Serbia Denmark Poland Latvia Malta Portugal Norway Montenegro Cyprus Belgium Finland Romania Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Netherlands Slovakia Estonia Austria Spain Latvia Malta Cyprus Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Iceland Croatia Lithuania Spain Slovenia Germany United Kingdom Poland Serbia Belgium -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destinationFollowing the solid advances recorded in the early part of 2012, the UKoutbound travel market appears to have tapered slightly with a third of the 18reporting destinations posting declines in the number of UK visits. Western aswell as Eastern European destinations showed some weakness, but the maingrowth destinations were mostly in Eastern Europe. Destinations in this regionare generally lower cost but also lower volume markets and not necessarilyindicative of a healthy UK outbound market. The growth trend for UK outboundappears to have deteriorated somewhat, also consistent with recent datareleased for UK departures to Europe and the world. Visits from UK to select destinations British visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Switzerland Luxembourg Montenegro Montenegro Romania Netherlands Slovakia Estonia Romania Austria Netherlands Denmark Latvia Slovakia Malta Estonia Norway Austria Portugal Latvia Finland Cyprus Malta Hungary Ireland Cyprus Bulgaria Czech Republic Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Lithuania Spain Italy Sweden Slovenia Iceland Croatia Lithuania Spain Slovenia Germany Germany Poland Serbia Poland Serbia Belgium Belgium -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination© European Travel Commission, October 2012
  15. 15. European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 13Russia has kept its position as the top performing source market. 18 out of 22destinations recorded visitor growth from Russia which exceeded 10%.Established destinations as well as emerging destinations throughout Europecontinue to benefit from this robust growth in Russian travel demand. Visits from Russia to select destinations Russian visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 60 60 87 > 50 50 40 40 30 30. 20 20 10 10 0 0 Montenegro Romania Slovakia Netherlands Estonia Austria Latvia Malta Cyprus Hungary Bulgaria Czech Republic Italy Switzerland Iceland Croatia Croatia Lithuania Spain Lithuania Slovenia Slovenia Sweden Luxembourg Montenegro Germany Germany United Kingdom Romania Slovakia Netherlands Poland Estonia Poland Serbia Austria Latvia Denmark Serbia Malta Portugal Norway Belgium Cyprus Finland Belgium Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Spain -10 -10 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination © European Travel Commission October 2012
  16. 16. 14 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)Non-European marketsMost destinations in Europe experienced a rise in American visitors. Inparticular, Eastern European destinations, including Slovakia, Estonia, Croatia,Serbia and the Czech Republic have recorded strong growth surpassing 15%and 9 destinations reported double-digit growth in arrivals, although these arelower volume markets. Given that the UK holds the most significant marketshare, the modest climb (3%) in American visitors to the UK is still noteworthyand the trend for US outbound, in general, shows growth. Visits from US to select destinations US visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2011, year-to-date*, % change year ago 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Switzerland Luxembourg Montenegro Romania Slovakia Netherlands Estonia Austria Denmark Latvia Malta Portugal Norway Cyprus Finland Hungary Bulgaria Czech Republic Croatia Lithuania Spain Slovenia Sweden Germany Montenegro Poland Serbia Romania Slovakia Netherlands Estonia Belgium Austria Latvia Malta Cyprus Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Iceland Croatia Italy Lithuania Spain Slovenia Germany United Kingdom Poland Serbia Belgium -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destinationThe effects of the catastrophic earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster inearly 2011 continues to characterise Japan travel data as growth to almost alldestinations are benefiting from strong growth as demand is rebounding. Visits from Japan to select destinations Japanese visitor nights in select destinations 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 2012, year-to-date*, % change year ago 60 60 270 > 73 > 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Iceland Croatia Lithuania Montenegro Slovenia Germany Romania Netherlands Slovakia Estonia Austria Poland Serbia Switzerland Cyprus Belgium Luxembourg Montenegro Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Italy Romania Netherlands Spain Estonia Austria Denmark Norway United Kingdom Cyprus Finland Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Croatia Lithuania Spain Slovenia Sweden Germany Poland Serbia Belgium -10 -10 -20 -20 Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination Source : TourMIS *date varies (Mar-Sep) by destination© European Travel Commission, October 2012
  17. 17. European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) 15Origin Market Share AnalysisBased on the Tourism Decision Metrics (TDM) model, the following chartsand analysis show Europe’s evolving market position - both in absolute andpercentage terms - for selected source markets.United States  82.0 million tourists traveled from the US in US long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul 2011. Of these, 32.5 million traveled within Million Central/Eastern Europe 60 Southern Europe North America, while 49.4 million (60.3%) Western Europe traveled to long haul destinations. 50 Northern Europe 40  US tourist arrivals to Europe in 2011 totaled 30 21.1 million, representing 42.8% of the US long haul outbound market. 20 10  US tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2011 0 totaled 4.9 million, representing 23.2% of US 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 arrivals to Europe. *Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America Source: Tourism Economics  US tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2011 totaled 8.0 million, representing 38.1% of US arrivals to Europe.  US tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2011 totaled 5.5 million, representing 25.8% of US arrivals to Europe.  US tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2011 totaled 2.7 million, representing 12.9% of US arrivals to Europe.  Northern Europes share of the US market was 9.9% in 2011, a 4.0 percentage point decrease from 2001.  Western Europes share of the US market was 16.3% in 2011, a 5.9 percentage point decrease from 2001.  Southern Europes share of the US market was 11.0% in 2011, a 1.6 percentage point increase from 2001.  Central/Eastern Europes share of the US market was 5.5% in 2011, a 0.2 percentage point increase from 2001.  Long haul outbound from the US is forecast to grow 5.3% per year on average through 2016.  Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase 28.9% through 2016, to 6.3 million. Northern Europes share of the US market is forecast to fall to 9.9% in 2016. © European Travel Commission October 2012
  18. 18. 16 European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012)  Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to Europes share of US market Northern Europe % of long haul* market Western Europe increase 26.2% through 2016, to 10.2 million. Southern Europe 25% Western Europes share of the US market is Central/Eastern Europe forecast to fall to 15.9% in 2016. 20%  Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to 15% increase 15.2% through 2016, to 6.3 million. 10% Southern Europes share of the US market is forecast to fall to 9.8% in 2016. 5%  Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to increase 35.2% through 2016, to 3.7 million. *Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America Central/Eastern Europes share of the US Source: Tourism Economics market is forecast to rise to 5.8% in 2016. Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics (TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as: Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, UK Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-Herzogovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine© European Travel Commission, October 2012

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