Slides from Hannah Fairfield of the New York Times at Tapestry Conference 2013

1. The Art of Honest Theft
Evolution of a connected scatterplot
Hannah Fairfield
twitter: @hfairfield

3. Oil’s Roller Coaster Ride 1979 and 1980 1982 Recessions Early 2000s 2007 Low
The Iranian in industrialized Record demand in inventories, a
This chart tracks the relationship between oil prices and oil
revolution and countries across Asia and the United weak dollar
consumption since 1964. Global oil consumption is shown on the outbreak of the world damp States and instability and bullish
the horizontal axis and oil prices are shown on the vertical axis. the Iran-Iraq war demand. Smaller in Iraq, Venezuela trading push
So, when consumption is increasing and prices are flat, the line reduce produc- cars also conserve and Nigeria fuel a oil near $100
moves straight right. And when prices are rising and demand tion. Prices soar. oil, and prices fall. run-up in prices. a barrel.
stops growing, the line moves straight up.
PRICE OF OIL OIL CONSUMPTION
1980 HIGH
$100
a barrel
$100 a barrel Average price 100 million barrels a day In today’s
WHAT’S GOING 1980 dollars
ON HERE?
80 Range 80 In the early
$90
of prices World 1980s, oil
60 60 consumption fell.
This is why the YESTERDAY’S
1981
PRICE
chart seems to
40 40
turn around. $80
AVERAGE
PRICE IN 2007
20 U.S.
Price Of Oil*
1982
$70
’64 ’73 ’81 ’90 ’00 ’07 ’64 ’73 ’81 ’90 ’00 ’07
1990 Iraq invades 2007†
1983 Kuwait and prices
briefly jump.
$60
1985
1998 Faltering Asian
economies slow $50
Late 1960s, early 1973 The Arab oil demand; prices fall.
1970s Oil prices are embargo causes price 1975 1978 2004
steady and energy increases and short- 1976
supplies are plentiful. term shortages. Lines 1974
1990
World oil consumption form at gas stations, $40
2000 2003
doubles from 1964 to and consumption
1973. stalls for two years.
1996
$30
1986 2001 2002
$20
1973
1964
1967 1969 1971 1972 1986 Saudi Arabia 2001 Sept. 11 attacks
opens its produc- create recession fears.
tion taps and Prices drop, but soon
World Oil Consumption prices collapse. recover.
30 million barrels a day 40 50 60 70 80
* Average annual price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. Posted prices (not spot prices) are shown before 1983. † Consumption forecast as of Nov. 6
Sources: Energy Information Administration; Federal Reserve; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Rocky Mountain Institute AMANDA COX/THE NEW YORK TIMES; PHOTOGRAPHS BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

4. METRICS 7,000 mi. 8,000 mi. 9,000 mi. 10,000
HANNAH FAIRFIELD
1980 1981 2008
Driving Shifts Into Reverse
CONOMISTS have long studied the meant that less freight needed to be
E relationship between driving habits
and gasoline prices. Low gas prices
can bring periods of profligate driving,
moved around the country. As gas prices
soared in 2005, the number of miles driven
— including commercial and personal —
Energy crisis The swing backward
The average number of $3.00
and a quick jump in prices can cause began to fall, and continued to drop after miles that Americans
many vehicles to languish in garages. 2008 even as gasoline became cheaper. drive annually begins to 2007
Until recently, Americans have driven “People were surprised by the very 1982 fall, so the chart appears
more each year than the previous one, rapid rise in gas prices, and they changed to turn around.
with a few brief exceptions. In 1956, their driving behavior,” said Kenneth A.
Americans of driving age drove about Small, a transportation economist at the
4,000 miles a year, on average. Fifty years University of California, Irvine. “But my 2006
later, that figure had climbed above 10,000. suspicion is that it is temporary. As soon
But the latest recession has caused as unemployment gets back to
some big changes. High unemployment pre-recession levels, we will see 1979
1983
meant that fewer people were driving to Americans doing a lot more driving
work, and a slump in consumer spending again.” Feb. 2010
$2.50 2005 $2.50
1984
1957
1956
1977 1985
Annual 1974 2009
1959
average
1960 1976
Cheap gas, 1975
1958 1961 1962
longer commutes
1978
1966
1968 2004
1965 1967 The Arab
1963
1964 1969 oil embargo
$2.00 1970 $2.00
Record low prices 2000
1971 1973 1990
2003
Price of 1972
a gallon
of gasoline 1987 1991
2001
1989
Annual average for 1986
regular grade, 1996
1992
adjusted for inflation 1988 1997
2002
1993
1995
1994
$1.50
1999
Miles driven per capita each year 5,000 mi. 6,000 mi. 7,000 mi. 8,000 mi. 9,000 mi.
1998
1956-72 1973-74 1978-81 1986-98 2005-10
Cheap gas, longer commutes The Arab oil embargo Energy crisis Record low prices The swing backward
CHANGE IN MILES CHANGE IN MILES CHANGE IN MILES CHANGE IN CHANGE IN
DRIVEN PER YEAR DRIVEN PER YEAR DRIVEN PER YEAR GAS PRICES GAS PRICES
+2,270 –210 –156 +106¢ +21¢
CHANGE IN MILES
DRIVEN PER YEAR
CHANGE IN CHANGE IN +2,057
GAS PRICES GAS PRICES
CHANGE IN MILES
–52¢ +43¢ CHANGE IN DRIVEN PER YEAR
GAS PRICES –427
–39¢
Americans spent more time in their In 1973, many Arab oil-producing Gas prices jumped as the Iranian Gasoline remained cheap for more The growth in driving faltered as
cars as highways networks countries declared an oil embargo revolution and the Iran-Iraq war than a decade, and the average gas prices started to climb. But
expanded and more workers against the United States because caused a rift in the global oil number of miles Americans drove much of the sharp reduction in
commuted from new, far-flung of its support of Israel in the supply. United States energy annually jumped by more than driving was caused by the long
suburbs. The number of commuters Middle East. The supply disruption policy turned to conservation, and 2,000. Economists observed that recession and its high unemploy-
rose as more women joined the caused oil prices to rise sharply, Congress imposed the first consumers became less sensitive ment rate. A small but growing
work force. and gas consumption declined. fuel-efficiency standards for cars. to small gas-price changes as number of thrifty and carbon-
household incomes rose. conscious commuters switched to
bicycles and public transportation.
Sources: Energy Information Administration; Federal Highway Administration; Brookings Institution THE NEW YORK TIMES

5. 4,000 6,000 8,000 Vehicle miles driven per capita 10,000
1968 1969
1966 1972
Muscle Cars Energy Crises
American cars get After the 1973 Arab oil
1970 1973
25 bigger, faster and — embargo, President Richard 25
with more V-8 engines M. Nixon sets a 55 m.p.h.
in midsize cars — more deadly. speed limit as national energy policy.
The Interstate highway system 1965
A few years later, the Iranian
grows, and speeds rise with it. revolution and the Iran-Iraq war curtail
“Unsafe at Any Speed” fuel supplies. People drive less (and
1964
In 1965, Ralph more slowly), and fatalities fall.
1951 Nader publishes
1953 a best seller
about auto companies’ 1980
1956 1963
Seat Belts and Sobriety
resisting safety features. In 1978
response, the government In 1984, New York becomes
creates the first agency 1977 the first state to require
1950 devoted to highway safety. drivers to wear seat belts.
1981
Auto fatalities hit a plateau. Child car seats, once a novelty, become
1962 1974 the norm: by 1985, all states require
1954 them. Many states tighten laws against
1958 1976
20 drunken driving, and by 1988 all states
20
have set the minimum drinking age at 21.
1961
Auto fatalities Auto fatalities
1984
per 100,000 1982 1988 per 100,000
people 1989 people
1985
1983 1990
VISUALS Hannah Fairfield
Air Bags and S.U.V.’s
Driving Safety, in Fits and Starts
1991
By the 1990s, computerized
auto technology like antilock 1995
brakes is reducing accidents,
A
1997
and air bags make them less deadly. But
MERICANS drive a staggering The safety data is usually charted as
number of miles — close to three deaths per miles traveled. But what happens as Americans fall in love with high-riding 15
S.U.V.'s, which tend to flip over and to 1992
trillion every year, according to the when the metrics are teased apart, and 2004
government. (That is half a light-year, or 120 familiar data is charted in an unfamiliar way? endanger smaller vehicles, fatality rates 2001
million trips around the world.) And although Plotting the two most important variables tick upward, then reach a plateau.
traffic accidents remain a major public safety against each other — miles traveled versus
problem, the biggest killer of people ages 5 to deaths per 100,000 population — yields a 2007
34, vehicle travel is far safer than it was a few pattern that looks like a plateau followed by a
decades ago. steep drop. It evokes the theory of punctuated
Several factors appear to account for the equilibrium, proposed by the paleontologists
sharp decline in fatalities. Technology (like Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge, which 2008
anti-lock brakes and air bags) and road suggests that instead of continuous gradual Unstable Economy, Stable Vehicles
behavior (like wearing seat belts and driving evolution, change occurs abruptly after
Analysts note two important
sober) have both improved greatly since periods of virtual standstill. Early estimates
factors for the recent drop:
1950. “You see fatalities drop after a break- from 2012
safer vehicles and 2009 show increases
Americans almost always drive more each through in new technologies or behaviors,
year than the previous one — at least until and then plateau until the next one,” said unemployment. Economic downturns in driving and
recently, when the recession curtailed road David L. Strickland, administrator of the mean fewer people on the road, fatalities.
habits. And the auto fatality rate has been National Highway Traffic Safety especially high-risk 16-to-24-year-old
drivers. At the same time, most new 10
decreasing since the 1960s, when cars with Administration. “It takes time for new safety 2011
massive engines carried their unbuckled technologies to work their way into the whole vehicles have stability controls and better
passengers on primarily two-lane roads. fleet of cars on the road.” crash test ratings. Redesigned S.U.V.’s
are less deadly in crashes.
Sources: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; Federal Highway Administration THE NEW YORK TIMES

6. What’s next?

13. Thank you

14. Hannah Fairfield
twitter: @hfairfield