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    SarahWynn_Prague_June11 SarahWynn_Prague_June11 Presentation Transcript

    • Monsanto Weed Workshop “North” 13th – 15th June 2011 Movenpick - Prague Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Sarah Wynn Sarah.Wynn@adas.co.uk James Clarke & Sarah Cookwww.adas.co.uk
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Background Project methodology Major uses of glyphosate in the UK Major implications and value of use Economic Environmental Social Conclusions Key issues to address
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Glyphosate in context Important in agriculture and amenity Controls most vegetation growing at the time of application Wide range of UK crops and grass Amenity and home and garden sectors Concerns to be addressed Frequently detected in surface water at low levels Above 0.1µg/l drinking water limit Some residues in grain Concentrations below level of health issues Concern that restrictions may be put on its use Monsanto adopting pro-active approach to managing the concerns and ensuring continued availability
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Glyphosate: world’s best-selling herbicide 4,000 3,500 3,000 • First marketed 1973 2,500 • No1 selling herbicide since 1980 Sales $M 2,000 • US Patent expired 2000 1,500 • Roundup Ready® patents since 1996 1,000 500 0 r or at yr at e lo -D op ne al in ne te te lin ba op s h hl qu ,4 pr zi h io na sa ap ra m af o oc ac a 2 a tr a et tr si fo h flu a di n ph et ol ar ox A so fo ul et ri ic ly c e t P n im e lu S az T D lo G A M Fe e nd M G Im C P Source: Phillips McDougall, 2008 4
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Glyphosate in Europe Pre-harvest Cereals, oilseeds, pulses Pre-planting or pre-emergence Wide range of crops Vegetation control Orchards, vineyards, non-agricultural, amenity
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Herbicide use in UK – area sprayed (ha) and active substance (kg) – arable crops 2008 1,800,000 1,800 Ha Active substance 1,600,000 1,600 1,400,000 1,400 Kg active substance used 1,200,000 1,200 Ha treated 1,000,000 1,000 800,000 800 600,000 600 400,000 Approval 400 200,000 ceased 2008 200 0 0 in on yr e -P n lin al at ro yp ur p ha ur os fu ro t ox ro if l ul et op ph Tr ur op os im ec ly Fl Is es nd G M /m e /p n et ro ac lf u en su uf do Fl Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008 Io
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Project methodology Desk based project Literature and expert knowledge Project reports and experiments Data sources and validation Pesticides Usage Survey 2008 Agronomists and farmers workshops Gross margin calculations Environmental calculations GHG emissions (CO2e) based on PAS2050
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Main glyphosate use in UKPre-harvest Pre-planting Pre-emergence• Perennial weed control • Annual and perennial weed • Annual weed• Harvest aid – reducing control (stale seed bed) control moisture • Can reduce need for cultivation and reduces herbicide within crop
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Establishing the impacts Identify key benefits Identify alternative approaches Herbicides: diquat, glufosinate-ammonium, pyraflufen-ethyl Other: cultivation, later planting, direct combining Calculate implications of unavailability Cost Social and environmental
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Benefits of pre-harvest use Timing Benefit Weed control Elytrigia repens control: 100 shoots/m2 could cause at least 10% yield reductions 10% in wheat, 15% in OSR, greater in spring crops Uneven or Dries out green material weedy crops lowers harvest moisture (1-2%) General Increased combine efficiency – increased speed of travel Lower harvest cost 3.5L/ha fuel saved
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Benefits pre-planting/pre-emergence Timing Benefit Stale seed beds Controls weeds and volunteer crops Pre-planting Bare soil prior to planting reduces pest and disease infection Pre-planting and Mode of action reduces herbicide pre-emergence resistance pressures Typical benefit 20% increase in yield
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Value of key benefits of glyphosate Use Key benefits Value (£/ha treated) Pre-harvest in Elytrigia repens control to prevent 56 winter wheat yield loss across a rotation, reduction in drying costs Pre-harvest in Desiccant and harvest aid, reduced 108 oilseed rape drying and earlier harvest Pre-planting of Reduce grass weeds, such as 310 winter wheat Alopecurus myosuroides, volunteers and perennial weeds
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Assessing impacts at UK scale Crop areas Average areas affected by weeds Usage patterns/area treated Pesticide Usage Survey Agronomist/farmer workshops
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Wheat and oilseed rape: major UK crops 2,500 000 ha £m value 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Wheat Winter Spring Oats OSR Peas Beans barley barley Source: Defra Statistics 2008, UK
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Area treated with glyphosate in UK 2008 Crop Area treated No of % crop % Pre- (spray ha) applications treated harvest Wheat 651,000 1.16 27 78 Winter barley 120,000 1.18 25 77 Spring barley 175,000 1.14 26 83 Oats 23,000 1.17 19 94 OSR 529,000 1.25 70 96 Peas 19,000 1.39 45 87 Beans 73,000 1.20 51 41 Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture % area treated, by crop, with glyphosate Pre-planting PUS Pre-harvest PUS 100% Pre-planting West Pre-harvest West Pre-planting East Pre-harvest East 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Wheat Spring Barley OSR Sources: Pesticide Usage Survey 2008 (PUS), Agronomist/Farmer meetings in West & East of England
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Yields reduced without glyphosate Wheat Spring Barley OSR 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Pre-planting Pre-harvest -25%
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Estimated % loss of production to UK, by crop, without glyphosate y y le rle ar ba rB g s at te rin n as s SR he in ea at Sp Pe W W O O B 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Pre-planting Pre-harvest -25
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Estimated loss £m to UK, all crops, without glyphosate Pre-planting Pre-harvest 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Impact of losses at farm scale Wheat, wheat, oilseed rape (OSR) On a 100 ha farm £47,300 annual cost Unprofitable to grow crops Rotational change
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Impact of loss on food prices To maintain current farm income levels requires increased price/tonne of: Wheat 40% Oilseed rape 26% Increase in price of products Bread 3.6p/loaf Livestock feed and meat prices
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Environmental impacts Soils - More cultivation , more erosion, poorer structure Land use - Limited availability, GHG impacts Biodiversity + If more spring cropping - Increased cultivation, Land Use Change (LUC) Water quality - Alternative herbicides, sediment Greenhouse gas emissions
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Implications for GHG emissions Based on PAS20501 methodology Default value for LUC (could be underestimate) Increased fuel use Low yields increase emissions per tonne Estimate increase CO2e of 25-65% for UK wheat production 1Publiclyavailable specification 2050 (PAS2050):2008 – Specification for the assessment of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of goods and services. Available from www.bsigroup.com/pas2050
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Social impacts Quality of life for farm workers 100% increase in labour/time required for cultivation and harvest Reduced harvest flexibility
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Loss of glyphosate would cause.... Severe losses to UK agriculture Greatest loss is pre-planting use £150m - £550m/year for wheat (c. £300/ha treated) £225m - £810m/year for all crops Additional losses pre-harvest use £72m - £152m/year in wheat (c. £50/ha treated) > £300m in all crops (c. £100/ha OSR treated) Negative impacts to the environment Crop area increased by 5-20% (if land available) GHG emissions increased by up to 65% Soil quality, water quality and biodiversity reduced
    • Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Actions required to retain availability of valuable active substance Need to resolve uncertainty over area treated if greater precision of impact is required Pro-active campaign to: Remind farmers, agronomists and policymakers of benefits Remind policymakers levels are below level of health impact Ensure always used to best practice Protect watercourses Avoid point source contamination and drift Ensure any use is always justified
    • Monsanto Weed Workshop “North” 13th – 15th June 2011 Movenpick - Prague Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture Sarah Wynn Sarah.Wynn@adas.co.uk James Clarke & Sarah Cookwww.adas.co.uk