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Presenter name Company name The Future of On-line Video Distribution Alan Patrick, Senior Associate Analyst, STL Partners [email_address]
Summary Points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
‘ On-line Video Distribution’ – our research definition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Shifting Sands in the Video Value Chain  Consumer Aggregation Devices Content Creation Distribution
Online Video – Current revenue forecasts are uncertain Current Forecasts of Global Video & TV Market $ billion Source: The Diffusion Group, Informa, STL Partners Analysis Total Online Video market  c $2bn in 2008 c $18bn in 2012???
Emerging industry shape Creation Aggregation Curated Content Professional Content Pure Aggregation User-Generated Content Joost YouTube Phreadz Source: Revision 3, STL Partners analysis
3 possible scenarios for the future Old Order ,[object Object],[object Object],Pirate World ,[object Object],[object Object],New Order ,[object Object],[object Object]
3 Possible Scenarios (more detail) Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution Report, to be published December 2008 Content Creation Aggregation Distribution Customer Environment Old Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Pirate World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],New Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
… .and how they play out over time  Old Order Pirate World New Order 2 - 3  years c 5  years Market Share
User-Generated Video creates traffic, but Long Form creates value Source: The Diffusion Group Online Video Traffic ...  ...and Advertising Revenues 2013
The wisdom of surveys: Telcos/ISPs lose out Big Winner Big Loser Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution, Experts Survey, October 2008; n=176
The wisdom of surveys: IPTV does not save the day Most Popular Least Popular Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution , Experts Survey, October 2008; n=176
Telco/ISP response:  Restore market rationality fast Old Order Pirate World New Order Now c 5  years Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution Report, to be published December 2008 Control of CPE in the home Policing content rights 2-sided business model & customer data mining fully established Eco-system of partners Flat Rate User Subsidy User VAS & Bundles Additional upstream services Upstream VAS Platform CDN & QoS Upstream service
Summary of Playout Assumptions in model Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution Report, to be published December 2008 Now 2 – 5 Years 5 Years 10 Years Old Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Pirate World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],New Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Today’s Questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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The Future of Online Video

  • 1. Presenter name Company name The Future of On-line Video Distribution Alan Patrick, Senior Associate Analyst, STL Partners [email_address]
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Shifting Sands in the Video Value Chain Consumer Aggregation Devices Content Creation Distribution
  • 5. Online Video – Current revenue forecasts are uncertain Current Forecasts of Global Video & TV Market $ billion Source: The Diffusion Group, Informa, STL Partners Analysis Total Online Video market c $2bn in 2008 c $18bn in 2012???
  • 6. Emerging industry shape Creation Aggregation Curated Content Professional Content Pure Aggregation User-Generated Content Joost YouTube Phreadz Source: Revision 3, STL Partners analysis
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. … .and how they play out over time Old Order Pirate World New Order 2 - 3 years c 5 years Market Share
  • 10. User-Generated Video creates traffic, but Long Form creates value Source: The Diffusion Group Online Video Traffic ... ...and Advertising Revenues 2013
  • 11. The wisdom of surveys: Telcos/ISPs lose out Big Winner Big Loser Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution, Experts Survey, October 2008; n=176
  • 12. The wisdom of surveys: IPTV does not save the day Most Popular Least Popular Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution , Experts Survey, October 2008; n=176
  • 13. Telco/ISP response: Restore market rationality fast Old Order Pirate World New Order Now c 5 years Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution Report, to be published December 2008 Control of CPE in the home Policing content rights 2-sided business model & customer data mining fully established Eco-system of partners Flat Rate User Subsidy User VAS & Bundles Additional upstream services Upstream VAS Platform CDN & QoS Upstream service
  • 14.
  • 15.