Tsr1304 1st half 2013 mobile phone platform market slide
2013/4/30Techno Systems Research“1st half 2013 Mobile Phone Platform Market& Development”- Market Report Summary -Takeshi Niwa (email@example.com)TSR
1Techno Systems ResearchFull report Summary《Report Overview》- Report Title: “1stHalf 2013 Mobile Phone Platform Market & Development”- Research Period: Feb to April, 2013- Release Date: Japanese report: 30 April, 2013English report: Middle of May, 2013- Format: A4 129 pages, MS Word format. Provided by PDF Report and Excel Data- Report Fee: 1stHalf report: Japanese version/ hardcopy: JPY300,000-, PDF report: JPY390,000-English version/ PDF: $4,500-Discount offer for 1sthalf & 2ndHalf 2013 report set (2ndhalf update report are scheduled to release in 4Q2013)《Research Products》- Cellular Modem, Mobile Application Processor and Integrated Chipsets for mobile phone《Main contents》- Mobile Phone & Smart Phone Market Forecast, CY2011-2018by Area, Price-Tier, Cellular Standards, OS Platforms,Integrated Chip Type, Number of CPU Cores- Mobile Phone & Smart Phone Market Share, CY2011-2013, 1Q2012-4Q2013- Cellular Modem Market Share by Standard, CY2011-2013, 1Q2012-4Q2013- Application Processor Market Share, CY2011-2013, 1Q2012-4Q2013- Supply Chain and Ratio- Chipset Price Forecast- Chipset Roadmap Forecast- Process Technology Roadmap- CPU and GPU Core Trend- Modem and Application Processor product listetcPlease inquiry Sample report to firstname.lastname@example.org
2Techno Systems Research1. Mobile Phone and Smartphone Market ForecastMobile Phone & Smartphone Market Forecast, 2011-20170.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.02,000.02,200.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017MUnits0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%Feature PhoneSmartphoneSmartphone %• Handset market size was 1830 M units in 2012, slight decline from 2011.• Smartphone market overtake feature phone in 2013, climb to 76% in 2018.
3Techno Systems Research2. Mobile Phone Market Forecast by Price-Tier<Methodology>- Forecast price-tier mix by each areasand sum-up (JP, KR, CHN, India,N.America, S.America, Europe/CIS,other area)-Smart feature phone are defined as:feature phone platform with WiFi, touchscreen, Java Apps..<Backgroud of forecast>- "high end" keeps majority in developedcountries, thanks to operators subsidy- "entry" and "low-end" keep 70-80% indeveloping markets- Europe/CIS and China has morebalanced mix.- Smart-feature phone grows and peaksin 2013 thanks to deployments by Nokiaand Samsung. But the market willdecline in 2014, replaced by low endsmartphones.Mobile Phone and Smartphone Market Forecast by Price-tier, 2011-20180.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.02,000.02,200.02,400.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018MUnitsFeature phone Smart-feature phoneSmartphone Low end Smartphone Mid-lowSmartphone Mid-high Smartphone High end2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018SmartphoneHigh-end ($400+) 13.9% 15.4% 17.1% 18.3% 18.8% 19.2% 19.5% 19.7%Mid-high ($200-400) 9.7% 10.7% 11.6% 12.7% 12.4% 11.6% 11.3% 11.3%Mid-low ($100-200) 2.7% 9.6% 12.2% 15.5% 17.9% 19.6% 21.0% 21.8%Low-end (less $100) 0.0% 3.0% 10.2% 13.6% 16.2% 18.8% 21.1% 23.1%Smart-Feature Phone* 1.6% 2.7% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7%Feature phone 72.0% 58.5% 45.3% 37.4% 32.8% 29.6% 26.3% 23.4%* Smart-Feature Phone: feature phone with touch panel and WiFi
4Techno Systems Research3. Smartphone Market Forecast by Chip type• Assume that Apple continue 2 chip solution (Slim modem + independent AP)• BB/AP single chip ratio will increase from 2013, as low end smartphone spread in wholemarket.• Besides Apple, 2 chip solution is very niche, less 10% of total smartphone. Almost every APvendors tend to integrate cellular modem into AP.Smartphone Market Forecast by Chip Type, 2011-20180.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018MUnits0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%Single Chip BB/APIndependent APIndependent AP ratio
5Techno Systems Research4. Smartphone Market Forecast by Number of CPU Core• Quad core AP will deploy to Mid-low segment from 2014, become mainstream after 2015.• High end Quad core: CXortex-A15 => Cortex A57 (big.LITTLE)• Low end Quad core: Cortex A7 => Cortex A53 ??Smartphone Market Forecast by Number of CPU Co re, 2011-20180.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018MUnitsQuad CoreDual CoreSingle Core* Not countingthe number of sub-CPU
6Techno Systems Research5. Smartphone Market Forecast by OS PlatformSmartphone Market Forecast by OS Platform, 2011-20180.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.01600.01800.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018MUnitsOther OSBlackberryFirefoxOSTizenBadaWindows PhoneiOSAndroidSymbian• Android is dominant. Some variant for Android.• iPhone market share will decline from 2013, with much lower market share in developingcountries.• Firefox will take 10+ % by 2018. will gradually grow.
7Techno Systems Research6. Mobile Phone Market Forecast by StandardMobile Phone Market Forecast b y Cellu lar Standard, 2011-20180.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.02,000.02,200.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018MUnitsother 2GCDMATD-SCDMALTE-FDTDLTE-TDDLTE-FDDWCDMAGSM• LTE Smartphone volume is much higher than LTE subscribers.• LTE device volume surpass WCDMA in 2018.• GSM market will shrink from 50% in 2012 to 20% in 2018.• C2K market started declining from 2012, will continue decreasing by 10-15% annually.
8Techno Systems Research7. Smartphone Platform by TierRetail Price BOM cost AP Value Platform Example Major OEM Main MarketQualcomm snapdragon 600 AppleSamsung Exynos5xxx Japan, Korea, US 1st-tier operators$400+ $200+ $20-25 Apple A6 (Subsidized Business Model)NVIDIA Tegra Nokia (WP high end)Intel Clover trail + Europe, China: Wealthy classQualcomm snapdragon 400 Japan, Korea: Low endRenesas MP5232 (LTE) US: Low end, 2nd-tier operatorsMediaTek MT6589 Europe, China: Mainstream~high end$200-400 $150~200 $12-20 Broadcom 28150/55 Nokia (WP low end) Developing countries: high endMarvell PXA1088 BlackberryQualcomm snapdragon 200 Europe, China:Mainstream~ Low endMediaTek MT6577, 6583 Developing countries: Mainstream$100-200 $70-150 $5-12 Spreadtrum SC8820, 8825 Chinese 2nd Tier (Android)Broadcom 21654Marvell PXA920 (Firefox Smartphones)MediaTek 6573/75 Chinese 2nd Tier (Android) China (Rural)$50-100 $40-70 ~$5 Spreadtrum SC8810 India, South Asia, Africa, Latin America…(Nokia: Smart feature phone)Android High end (Samsung, Sony, HTC,LG, Motorola,Android low end (Samsung, LG, Huawei,ZTE, Lenovo, Yulong, Gionee, etc)Android Mid end (Samsung, Sony, HTC,LG, Motorola, Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo,Yulong, etc)
9Techno Systems Research8. Smartphone AP Market Outlook 2012High endMid-HighMid-LowLow endAP VendorsQualcomm Apple MediaTek Samsung Broadcom Spreadtrum Marvell ST-Ericsson NVIDIA Intel HiSiliconRenesasMobileRDA2012 market share33% 19% 14% 11% 6% 4% 4% 3% 1% few few few 2013~CPU Core (2012-2013) Krait,C-A5=>A7ARM v7 C-A9, C-A7C-A9, A15,A7C-A9 C-A5, C-A7Sheeva=>C-A9, A7C-A9 C-A9 =>A15Atom (32bit)=> (64bit)C-A9 =>A15 C-A9 C-A5GPU Core (2012-2013)Adreno SGX SGXSGX =>MaliVideoCore Mali Vivante SGX GeForce SGX Vivante SGX ?Process Technology 28LP,28HKMG,40LP32HKMG=>28HKMG40LP, 28LP32HKMG=>28HKMG40LP, 28LP 40LP, 28LP 40LP, 28LP45LP=>28LP=>28LP+FD-SOI40LP=>28HKMG32HKMG=>22HKMG+Tri-gate40LP =>28HKMG?28HKMG 40LPCellular modem integration ○ no ○ 2H13 ○ ○ ○ ○ 2H13 no no ○ ○LTE support onintegrated Modem ○ no 2014 2H13 2014 2014 2014 1H13 2H13 ? ? ○ N/AAPQseries(Fusionplatform)Exynos5MT6589MT6575/6577Exynos4MSM8960=> 8960A=>8974,8962MSM8x30,MSM8x30ABMSM7x25A, 8225,8225Q,8226,tegra 4iPXA92xPXA1088PXA98xBCM21654BCM281xxSC8810,6820SC77xxSC8820T3 => T4MT6572/6582
10Techno Systems Research9. Process Rule Updateprocess Gate 1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013 1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015Intel32nm HKMG planar ●chip release (Atom)22nm HKMG Tri-Gate ●chip release (Core) ●chip release (Atom, mobile)14nm HKMG Tri-Gate ●chip release (Core) ●chip release (Atom, mobile)10nmTSMC28nm Poly planar ●chip release28nm HKMG planar MP ●chip release20nm HKMG planar preproduction MP ●chip release16nm HKMG FinFET preproduction MPSamsung32nm HKMG planar ●chip release28nm HKMG planar ●chip release20nm HKMG planar preproduction ●MP, chip release14nm-XM HKMG FinFET preproduction MP(BEOL: 20nm)GF28nm Poly planar MP ●chip release28nm HKMG planar MP ●chip release28nm FD-SOI planar preproduction ●MP, chip release20nm HKMG planar preproduction MP14nm-XM HKMG FinFET preproduction MP(BEOL: 20nm)UMC28nm Poly planar MP ●chip release28nm HKMG planar MP14nm HKMG FinFET preproduction MP(BEOL: 20nm)preproduction: test chipMP: mass producttionchip release: Application Processor release schedule●chip release●chip release• Every mobile chip foundries aregoing forward the process rule.• 20/22nm gen process will be veryshort life. After 6-12 month of20nm launch (4Q/13-1Q/14period), 14nm will stand in 2H/14.• Intel will lose it’s processadvantage by 2014E, If otherfoundries could do on time.• 28HKMG chip might see shortsupply due to limited capacity andunstable yield.