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Nov2012 mobile cloud platform presentation tsr v1.1

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Summary presentation of new market report. The report covers tablet, smartphone, laptop PC and mobile apps processors market trend. Full report contains detailed data and analysis.

Summary presentation of new market report. The report covers tablet, smartphone, laptop PC and mobile apps processors market trend. Full report contains detailed data and analysis.

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  • 1. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp Mobile Cloud Device Platform Market Summary November 2012 Takeshi Niwa (niwa@t-s-r.co.jp) TSR- Techno Systems ResearchTechno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 1
  • 2. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jpThe Full Report《Report Overview》 - Report Title: “Mobile Cloud Device Platform & 2012“ - Research Period: August to October, 2012 - Release Date: Japanese report: 21 October, 2012 English report: Middle of December, 2012 - Format: A4 129 pages, MS Word format. Provided by PDF Report and Excel Data - Report Fee: Japanese, Hardcopy: JPY300,000-/ Hard copy + PDF: JPY 390,000- English, PDF: USD4,500-《Research Products》 - Mobile Cloud Device (Notebook PC, Tablet, Smartphone) - Application Processor, Mobile OS《Main contents》- Mobile Cloud device market trend * Tablet, Smartphone, Notebook PC Market Forecast, Share * Competitive, Segmentation Analysis- Platform, Apps Processor * Supply Chain * CPU core trend * Apps Processor Market Share * GPU IP Trend * Process technology * Apps Processor Roadmap …etcTechno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 2
  • 3. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 1. “Mobile Cloud Device” Retail Price range $700+ Mobile PC, Win8 pro Ultrabook Tablet $600 (Atom/Core i) Mobile Computing iPad $500 Media to Go Microsoft Surface RT $300 iPad mini Major brand Smartphones Android, 10" $200 Major brand Android, 7" $100 Merge Ebook, "ChinaPad" MP4, PND, Android Whitebox portable gaming ~5" 7" 10" 10-13" 11-15" Display Size-Smartphone, Tablet and Notebook PC are mainstream mobile cloud devices.-Smartphone is “Must-have”. Tablet center the middle size screen. Laptop is pushed to “large zone”.-Platform Wars. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 3
  • 4. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp2. Mobile Cloud Device Market by Device Type Mobile Cloud Device Market Forecast, 2010-2017 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 Tablet M Units 800.0 Notebook PC Smartphone 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-Smartphone is biggest in volume. Smartphone highly penetrate in developed countries, also gettinginto developing countries.-Notebook PC is no longer growing market. Tablet surpass Notebook PC market in 2014.Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 4
  • 5. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 3. OS Platform Share for Mobile Cloud Device Mobile OS Platform Market Share Trend, 2010-2017 1,200.0 80.0% Apple Google Microsoft Other OS 70.0% 1,000.0 Apple M/S Google M/S Microsoft M/S Other OS M/S 60.0% 800.0 50.0% M Units 600.0 40.0% 30.0% 400.0 20.0% 200.0 10.0% 0.0 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 * Notebook PC, Tablet and Smartphone-Google Android dominate in mobile Platform. Open strategy, some variants.-Apple place itself on high end space. Added-value.-MS struggling in mobile OS market. Trying to make breakthrough by own hardware. Windows 8 mayrecapture “mobile computing” market from iPad.-Other legacy platforms and closed platforms may fade out, or become niche in the market. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 5
  • 6. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 4. Mobile Cloud Device Market by Screen Size Mobile Cloud Device Market Forecast by Display Size, 2010-2017 2,500.0 > 14" 2,000.0 9-13" 5-8" < 5" 1,500.0 M Units 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-Smaller size will have bigger volume.-5-8” is new segment. Consist of high end smartphone and low end tablet.-9-13”grows thanks to tablet. Mobile PC (sub-13”) will shrink (or acquired by Tablet).-14”: matured market. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 6
  • 7. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 5. Tablet Platform Competition Landscape Expensive -Army 900USD -Medical -Maintenace -Insureance Windows 8 Table t etc 2012E~ Apple iPad Laptop PC Operator 45-50% Distribution Channel 500-700USD WindowsRT Andorid Major Brand 2012E~ - Samsung, Asus, Sony, etc 400USD 10% Apple iPad 300USD Commercial Vertical Consumer Mini 2012E~ Andorid Mainstream 200USD - Google, Amazon, etc 10% -Advertisement 50-100USD - Public display Andorid "ChinaPad" -Eduacational 27-28% -Restraunts Low cost etc-Apple dominates in high end space. Not only consumer, also getting into commercial market. iPadmini would damage mainstream Android tablet players.-Many Android tablet vendors face difficulties in competition with iPad. Android tablet players escapeto lower the price, replies on mobile operator’s subsidy, focus on vertical market, or shifts to Win8platform. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 7
  • 8. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 6. Tablet Market by Platform Tablet Market Forecast by OS Platform, 2010-2017 350.0 Other OS Windows/ARM 300.0 16% Windows/IA Share Android/ChinaPad 250.0 Android/Major brand iOS 200.0 M Units 150.0 Windows8 Launch Maintain >40% share 100.0 each 50.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-iPad and Low cost Android (“ChinaPad”) are growing segment.-Many major brand’s Android tablet vendors struggle to gain. Only low cost tablets (from Amazon,Google…) sell well.-Windows 8: replacing mobile computer market.-WindowsRT: Heavily depends on pricing strategy of MS Surface RT. No other OEMs will push WinRT. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 8
  • 9. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 7. Smartphone Market by Platforms Smartphone Market Forecast by OS Platform, 2010-2017 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 Other OS Blackberry 1,000.0 Tizen M Units 800.0 WM/WP iOS 600.0 Android Symbian 400.0 200.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-Android (and some variants) keeps mainstream, around 65%. Apple around 20%.-Windows phone will be better position after WP8.-Tizen is almost Samsung’s own OS. Mainly applied to low end segment at the moment.-Firefox may be rival of Android in low-end segment. It should take 2-3 years to aggregate apps eco-system and platform maturity. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 9
  • 10. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 8. Multi-core Apps Processor Trend Mobile AP Market Forecast by Number of CPU Core, 2010-2017 2,000.0 1,800.0 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 Quad Core M Units 1,000.0 Dual Core Single Core 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-Quad core Apps processor penetrate in high end segment first in 2012. Quad core will also diffuse inlow end segment from 2013.-“Quad core” is mainly for marketing/ promotion. Current mobile OS does NOT support quad coreCPU.-2 types of Quad core; High end: latest ARM CPU or original CPU (Cortex A15, Krait…) Low end: low cost, low power CPU (Cortex A5/ A7) Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 10
  • 11. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp9. Apps Processor Vendor’s Position Smartphone Tablet Notebook PC 2012 TAM 710M 146M 197M - Apple strong both in SP andDominant (50+ %) Intel Tablet market. - QCOM dominant in SP spaceStrong Apple (30-50%) but weak in Tablet market. QCOM NVIDIA in opposite.Moderate Apple <Smartphone> (10-30%) NVIDIA Allwinner -QCOM, in-house (Apple and MTK Samsung Samsung) are strong.Small BRCM SPRD Rockchip TI -AP vendors from low end (~10%) fade out MRVL TI Samsung AMlogic segment emerging. fade out WM InfoTM -Old major players shrinking. NVIDIA Nokia Exit QCOM Intel STE Leadcore <Tablet> Telechips Ingenic Intel HiSilicon AMD -Allwinner succeed in low end Freescale Marvell tablet AP market. Vimicro Nufront VIA -NVIDIA widely deployed in HiSilicon mid-high segment (exceptNew Entry Apple) Renesas RDA MTK STETechno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 11
  • 12. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-003210. CPU core and Process Technology are the Key (1) Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp ・32/64bit CPU DMIPS Intel Atom (22nm) NVIDIA ・64bit support? "project Denver" CISC processor Apple CPU ARM "Atlas" Qualcomm CPU ・ARM v8 A series ・ARM v8 compatible ・32/64bit ・32/64bit support MIPS CPU Apple CPU ・Next Gen ・equivalent to MIPS ProAptiv ・Multi-core (1~4) Krait ・Multi-core Cortex A15 ・~1.5GHz/ Core ・Multi-core ・1-6 Cores ・Multi-issue pipeline ・~2.5DMIPS/MHz ・3.2-3.5DMIPS/MHz ・3.5DMIPS/MHz ・Out-of-order execution ・License in 4Q2007 Cortex A15 ・4.5 CoreMark/MHz ・3Q2012 MP ・SoC MP in3Q2010 ・28nm or less ・Multi-core (1~8) ・about 1/2 size of C-A15 Cortex A9 ・~2.5GHz/ Core Scorpion ・3.5DMIPS/MHz ・2.1DMIPS/MHz ・License in 3Q2010 ・SoC MP in 4Q2012 ・OS virtualization Cortex A8 MIPS ・32/28/20nm ・big.LITTLE (sub CPU: C-A7) ・600MHz~1GHz ・2.0DMIPS/MHz ・Larger memory addressability ・2DMIPS/MHz ・Multi-core (1~6) (1074K) ・soft-error recovery ・1.1 GHz in 65nm ・Superscalar, Out-of-order execution 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014-64bit instruction set, and In-house CPU core are the trend in high end segment. ARM just released Cortex A53/A57 tocompete with 64bit CPUs from Intel. MIPS has 64bit ecosystem for 20 years, but no 64bit CPU cores.-Apple, QCOM, Intel use own CPU core. NVIDIA also plans for 2015 Tegra processor. (Samsung is another candidate, butSamsung does not get Architecture license from ARM at the moment)-OS and applications need to support quad-core, 64bit CPU. RAM capacity and data transfer speed would be anothertechnical challenge. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 12
  • 13. TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD. TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032 Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp 11. CPU core and Process Technology are the Key (2)Process technology roadmap (mobile) 1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013 1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016 Intel (Atom) 32nm HKMG ★22nm HKMG, 3D-gate ○ ★14nm HKMG, 3D-gate ○ ★10nm TSMC ★28nm poly ★28nm HKMG ○ ● ★20nm HKMG ○ ● ★16nm HKMG, 3D-gate Samsung ★32nm HKMG ★28nm HKMG ○ ● ★20nm HKMG ○ ● ★14nm HKMG, 3D-gate GF ★28nm poly ★28nm HKMG ○ ● ★20nm HKMG ○ ● ★14nm HKMG, 3D-gate UMC ★28nm poly ★28nm HKMG ○ ● ★20nm HKMG? ○ 14nm? ○preproduction ●mass production ★chip release -Intel leads process shrinking, HKMG, tri-gate technology by 1-1.5 years. Intel basically does NOT provide foundry service to other mobile AP vendors. -TSMC and GF push forward the schedule of 20nm to catch up Intel. -UMC seems to be behind the race. Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 13