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4G LTE market TSR

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Brief summary of 4G-LTE family, HSPA+ and WiMAX market analysis report from TSR. ...

Brief summary of 4G-LTE family, HSPA+ and WiMAX market analysis report from TSR.

Full report covers 4G industry trend: mobile operator's trend, device market forecast, chipset vendor's trend, share, roadmaps, etc.

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4G LTE market TSR 4G LTE market TSR Presentation Transcript

  • “4G Market Analysis” Research Report in Brief FDD/TDD-LTE, HSPA+, WiMAX Takeshi Niwa, Marketing Analyst Yoko Kaneko, Analyst 2011/6/30 Techno Systems Research
  • Report Overview Report Title : “4G Market Analysis 2011” Research Coverage : Standard: HSPA+, LTE, LTE-Advanced, WiMAX : Surveyed industries: Mobile Device, Chipset, Network vendors, Mobile operators Publication : June 8, 2011 Research Period : Feb 2011-May 2011 Report Format : A4 size, 145 pages 1. Summary (p1-12) 2. Network and Operator Trend (p13-54) 3. Market Trend (p55-97) 4. Baseband Chipset Trend (p98-145) Report Price : $4,000- for English, PDF file JPY300,000- for Japanese, Hard Copy/ JPY390,000- for Hard Copy & PDFTechno Systems Research 1
  • 1. “4G” Definition Originally IMT Advanced defined as 4G LTE-Advanced 1Gbps IEEE802.16m WiMAX2 ITU 4G 100Mbps LTE Enhancement ITU IMT2000 (3G) IEEE802.16e IEEE802.16e WiMAX WiMAX HSPA+ 10+Mbps UMTS-HSPA CDMA2k Enhancement Research Coverage TD-SCDMA DECT+ TDMA 2010 2013- • There was confusion for 4G definition in 2H2010-. ITU originally defined IMT-advanced (LTE-Adv. and WiMAX2) as 4G. But ITU re-defined 4G as LTE, WiMAX and HSPA enhancements (HSPA+) in Dec 2010. • This report covers 4G standards - HSPA+, LTE, LTE-Adv, and WiMAX.Techno Systems Research 2
  • 2. 4G Deployments by Area (Subscriber Trend) Europe 4G subscribe r trend 1,400.0 1,200.0 US 4G subscribe r tre nd Kore a 4G subscribe r tre nd 1,000.0 70.0 450.0 M subs 400.0 800.0 60.0 350.0 600.0 50.0 300.0 400.0 M subs 2G/3G HSPA+ 40.0M subs 250.0 200.0 LT E WiMAX 200.0 30.0 WiMAX 150.0 0.0 20.0 LT E 100.0 2G/3G HSPA+ 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 LT E M-WiMAX 10.0 2G/3G 50.0 0.0 India 4G subscriber trend 0.0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1,600.0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1,400.0 1,200.0 RO W 4G subscribe r tre nd 1,000.0 Japan 4G subscriber trend M subs 160.0 3500.0 800.0 140.0 600.0 3000.0 2G/3G HSPA+ 120.0 400.0 2500.0 LT E WiMAX 100.0 200.0 M subsM subs 2000.0 80.0 0.0 1500.0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 60.0 1000.0 2G/3G HSPA+ 40.0 2G/3G HSPA+ 500.0 LT E M-WiMAX 20.0 LT E M-WiMAX China 4G subscriber trend 0.0 0.0 1,800.0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 Big gap for 4G diffusion by countries M subs 1,000.0 800.0 Early LTE penetration (more than 10% of total subscriber) 600.0 2G/3G HSPA+ - US (2012), Japan, Korea (2013) 400.0 LT E Slow LTE penetration 200.0 - Europe (2016), China (2017), India (after 2020) 0.0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Techno Systems Research * If including HSPA+, Europe has early 4G penetration (2013) 3
  • 3. Major LTE Operators Country Operator Launch Date 4G Tariff (Monthly) Country Operator Launch Date 4G Tariff (Monthly) Finland Elisa Dec 2010Norway TeliaSonera/Netcom Dec 2009 <Mobile Boradband (USB)> Denmark TeliaSonera Dec 2010 <Mobile Broadband> 20Mbps/ 15GB 399 NOR 20Mbps/20GB limit 299 DKK 80Mbps/ 30GB 499 NOR 80Mbps/30GB limit 399 DKKSweden TeliaSonera Dec 2009 <Mobile Boradband (USB)> Estonia TeliaSonera (EMT) Dec 2010 <Mobile Broadband> 5-10Mbps <22Mbps / 10GB 299 SEK 100Mbps/Unlimited 34.94 EUR 10-20Mbps <22Mbps / 20GB 369 SEK Japan NTT DoCoMo Dec 2010 <Mobile Broadband> 10-80Mbps <22Mbps / 30GB 599 SEK 75Mbps/5GB 6,510 JPY (0.315JPY/KB)Uzbekistan MTS Jul 2010Uzbekistan UCell Aug 2010 Nigeria Globacom Jan 2011 Lithuania TeliaSonera/Omnitel Apr 2011 <Mobile Broadband>Poland Mobyland & CenterNet Sep 2010 30Mbps/5GB 69 LTLUSA MetroPCS Sep 2010 <Phone Data> 55-60USD 80Mbps/10GB 99 LTLAustria A1 Telekom Austria Nov 2010 <Mobile Boradband> Germany T-Mobile <Mobile Broadband> 30GB 90 EUR (6.9Euro/GB) 3Mbps/3GB limit 39.95 EUR Apr 2011Sweden TeleNor Sweden Nov 2010 <Mobile Braodband> Australia Telstra May 2011 Medium (20GB) 399 SEK Singapore M1 May 2011 Large (Unlimited) 549 SEK S.Korea SK Telecom Jul 2011 S.Korea LG Uplus Jul 2011Sweden Tele2 Sweden Nov 2010 Germany Telifonica O2 Jul 2011 <Mobile Braodband>Hong Kong CSL Limited/1010 Nov 2010 <Mobile Broadband> 7.2Mbps/10GB 39.90 EUR LTE/DC-HSPA+ HK$399 Saudi Arabia Mobily (Etisalat) 3Q2011 US AT&T 3Q2011Finland TeliaSonera Nov 2010 <Mobile Broadband> Canada Rogers 2H2011 80Mbps/ 30GB 46.1 EUR US Cellular South 4Q2011Germany Vodafone Dec 2010 <LTE at Home> S.Korea KT 4Q2011 3.6Mbps/5GB limit 19.99 EUR Japan Softbank (WCP) 4Q2011 Poland Aero2 2011 7.2Mbps/10GB limit 29.99 EUR UAE Etisalat 2011 21.6Mbps/15GB limit 39.99 EUR Austria Hutchison 3 Austria 2011 50Mbps/30GB limit 59.99 EUR Denmark TDC Mobile 2011USA Verizon Wireless Dec 2010 <USB Modem> Finland DNA Finland 2011 5GB limit 50USD (10USD/GB) Russia Yota 2011 10GB limit 80USD (10USD/GB) India Aircel 4Q2011 <Phone Data> India Bharti Airtel 4Q2011 India Reliance (Infotel) 4Q2011 Unlimited 29.99USD (Fee for Allowance Exceeded) Techno Systems Research 4
  • 4. Mobile Device Shipment Forecast by Standard World Wide Device Market Forecast by Standard, 2009-2020 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 2G/3G M Units HSPA+ LTE 1,000.00 WiMAX 500.00 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 • HSPA+ will be major 4G technology until 2018. HSPA+ device market continues to grow from 2012 to 2018. (HSPA+ devices are counted by device and network availability. We do not include HSPA+ device for HSPA operators) • LTE (includes all LTE family, FDD, TDD, LTE-Adv.) starts to grow from 2013, and overtake HSPA+ in 2019. • WiMAX market is very small compared to HSPA+ and LTE. WiMAX market hits peaks in 2012, then shrinks.Techno Systems Research 5
  • 5. LTE Device Shipment Forecast by Area LTE Market Forecast by Area, 2009-2020 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 Other Area India 800.0 Europe M Units China 600.0 Korea Japan 400.0 US 200.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 • TSR estimates 14.8M LTE devices in 2011, 48.3M in 2012. Revised Forecast to upside in 2Q2011. • US will take more than 50% of LTE market until 2015. Japan and Korea follow US until 2013. • LTE demand in Europe, China, Other area start to grow from 2014 – 2015 period.Techno Systems Research 6
  • 6. LTE Device Shipment Forecast by Application LTE Market Forecast by Device Type, 2009-2020 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 Others Fixed Router 800.00 M Units Mobile Router PC Adaptor 600.00 Notebook PC 400.00 Tablet Mobile phone 200.00 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 • Mobile phone (Smartphone) will occupy around 70% of total LTE device shipment. • PC Adaptor will take more than 15% of total in early stage (by 2012), 10~15% after 2013. • Mobile router and LTE Tablets follow.Techno Systems Research 7
  • 7. LTE Mobile Phone Market Trend LTE Mobile phone Market Forecast, 2009-2020 1,000.00 40.0% 900.00 Others 35.0% India 800.00 Europe 30.0% 700.00 China Korea 25.0% 600.00 M Units Japan 500.00 20.0% US 400.00 LTE ratio on mobile phone 15.0% 300.00 10.0% 200.00 5.0% 100.00 0.00 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 • Approx.10M LTE mobile phone will be shipped in 2011. Most will be sold in US. • TSR estimate approx. 10% of mobile phone will be LTE in 2015, 30% in 2019.Techno Systems Research 8
  • 8. LTE Frequency Bands 700 800 850 900 1500 1700 (AWS) 1800 1900 2100 2300 2600 FDD 2600 TDDUS VZ, ATT UMTS ATT, MetroPCS PCS (UMTS) 2012-, TDD?Japan 2013-? 2012- 2013-? 2012- 2010-, Docomo 2011-, TDDKorea 2013-? SK, LG U+ KT 2013-? (UMTS)EU DD800 GSM/UMTS GSM→LTE (UMTS) FDD-LTEOther Area GSM/UMTS Canada, Latin GSM (UMTS) India,China(TDD) Latin, APAC China? • LTE frequency bands differ by countries. More frequencies will be added in the future. Chart above shows major LTE band allocation by countries. (including TSR predictions). • 2.6GHz will be major global LTE band- FDD2.6GHz will be used in wide GSM market. • 700 and 800MHz (which will be open after analog TV termination) will be major LTE bands after 2013. • LTE operating countries will be small until 2013, multi-band LTE device will be needed in 2014 or later.Techno Systems Research 9
  • 9. LTE-Advanced 3GPP device development Commercial launch Wide rel.10 field test in early LTE market deployments Standardization → development → Commercialization → Diffusion 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 * Up to 1Gbps with same PHY, same band as LTE * Carrier Aggregation (20*20MHz) * Heterogeneous Network • LTE-Advanced is evolution of LTE, target up to 1Gbps, more effective network usage with same PHY, same frequency band with LTE. LTE-Advanced will be standardized as 3GPP rel.10. • LTE-Advanced features carrier aggregation, Heterogeneous network. • LTE-Advanced are expected to commercialize in 2013E or 2014. Early LTE operators (Verizon, Docomo, SK, etc) will early LTE-Advanced Adopter. • LTE-Advanced is expected to deploy widely in 2016-2017.Techno Systems Research 10
  • 10. LTE Chipset Suppliers<RF IC> <Protocol Stack software> - ASTRI * • Modem chip suppliers can be- AKM - 4M Wireless grouped into the following:- FCI- Fujitsu - LG * - 2G/3G modem vendors - MimoOn- Maxim - NTT Docomo * - WiMAX chip vendors Chipset- RDA Micro - Sasken - In-house modem- RME (* also has Silicon IP)... Protocol Stack Software (Network, device vendor) RF Transceiver CPU DSP/SDR <DSP/ SDR> - Chinese wireless IC design IC - CEVA<CPU> Baseband Modem - Tensilica- ARM - Cognovo • Left chart lists IP Vendors and- MIPS - CoreSonic RF vendors. - Optimum <Chipset Supplier> - Altair - Motorola - Broadcom/ Beceem - Qualcomm - CYIT - Renesas - GCT - Samsung - HiSilicon - Sequans - Icera - Spreadtrum - Innofidei - ST-Ericsson - Intel - VIA Telecom - Leadcore - Xircomm - LG - ZTE - MediaTek Techno Systems Research 11
  • 11. LTE Smartphone Composition 2G/3G/LTE • 1st Generation LTE LTE/3G/2G BB+AP SoC smartphone typically use 3 Dual core Multimode Modem processors: 2G/3G modem, independent AP Qualcomm MSM8960/8930 (4Q2012) LTE modem and Apps ARM C-A9 dual Renesas MP5232 (1H2013) Processor. STE L8600 (1H2013) Qualcomm MDM9200+MSM8260 • 2nd generation platform Renesas MP5225single mode LTE STE L9540, L9600 consist of multimode LTECDMA/3G modem modem and Apps Processor.independent APARM C-A9 dual • LTE modem integrated AP will LTE: Samsung, Motorola, LG/GCT commercialize in 2H2012. (CS 2G/3G: VIA Telecom, Qualcomm in 2H2011) QCOM will be top 45nm 28nm runner in integrated 2010 2011 2012 2013 smartphone platform. Vendor Product Support Standard Schedule Process rule Qualcomm MDM8960 GSM/EDGE, CDMA EV-DO 4Q2011 CS, 28nm rev.B, DC-HSPA+, 4Q2012 MP LTE-FDD/TDD Renesas MP5232 GSM/EDGE, HSPA+, LTE-FDD 1Q2013 MP 28nm ST-Ericsson L8600 GSM/EDGE, DC-HSPA+, 1H2013 MP 28nm LTE-FDD/TDD Techno Systems Research 12
  • 12. WiMAX Device Market Forecast by Application WiMAX Market Forecast by Device Type, 2009-2020 25.00 Others 20.00 Fixed Router (CPE) Mobile Router 15.00 PC Adaptor M Units Notebook PC Tablet 10.00 Mobile phone 5.00 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 • Mobile Phone will account for 44% of WiMAX market in 2011, 58% in 2012 and decline. • Non Mobile phone device demand from 2010 to 2011 <10 units • Intel will exit WiMAX module market in 2012.Techno Systems Research 13
  • 13. WiMAX to TD-LTE Migration • LTE and WiMAX shares few frequencies LTE = Bigger Ecosystem!!! Operator CountryYota RussiaVividwireless AustraliaP1 Malaysia • Operators servicing WiMAX in 2.3GHz & 2.5GHz band areClearwire US testing LTE as their next generation standardFitel TaiwanMaxis Taiwan Switch occurs from 2012.Global Mobile Corp Taiwan… … Band Allocation - 2.3GHz: Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippine… - 2.5GHz: US, Philippine, Taiwan, Japan, Russia… (↑Many Asian countries) - Operators using 3.5 and others such as Latin America, Europe, Middle East will continue to use WiMAX Techno Systems Research 14
  • To Learn More…. For further information/details on the full report, contact the following: Marketing Analyst Takeshi Niwa Niwa@t-s-r.co.jp Phone: +81-3-3851-5651 Yoko Kaneko Kaneko@t-s-r.co.jp Phone: +81-3-3851-5651Techno Systems Research 15