Behavior change from individuals to institutions – keynote by mike vandenbergh
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Behavior change from individuals to institutions – keynote by mike vandenbergh

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  • There was a clear linear relationship between water temperature and the its perceived effectiveness of cleaning hands.
  • These are the total estimated emissions associated with the use of warm or hot water for handwashing in the US.

Behavior change from individuals to institutions – keynote by mike vandenbergh Behavior change from individuals to institutions – keynote by mike vandenbergh Presentation Transcript

  • Behavior Change: From Individuals to Institutions Third Annual Southeast Sustainability Summit ORNL Knoxville, TN August 22, 2013 Michael P. Vandenbergh Professor of Law Director, Climate Change Research Network Co-Director, Energy and Environmental Law Program Papers at: http://ssrn.com/author=426704
  • 9  Individuals  The Behavioral Wedge  Specific Actions  Institutions  Barriers  New Options Overview
  •  Co-Authors  Tom Dietz  Gerald Gardner  Jonathan Gilligan  Paul Stern  Michael Vandenbergh Household Actions Can Provide a Behavioral Wedge to Rapidly Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions, 106 PROC. NAT’L ACAD. SCI. 18452 (2009) available at behavioralwedge.msu.edu and http://law.vanderbilt.edu/academics/academic-programs/environmental-law/climate-change Behavior Change: Households
  • Average American’s Carbon Emissions Source: SETH SHULMAN ET AL., COOLER SMARTER: PRACTICAL STEPS FOR LOW-CARBON LIVING Fig. 2.1 (2012)
  • Residential Electricity Consumption and Associated Emissions Electricity consumption per residential customer megawatt-hours/yr in 2009 Electricity-associated CO2e emissions per residential customer pounds per residential customer in 2009 Source: U.S. EIA data for state-level residential electricity sales. Emissions rates are calculated based on CO2e emissions factors for subregions from U.S. EPA eGrid dataset for year 2009, and assume electricity transmission losses of 7% for all states.
  • Average Household Energy Consumption by End-Use million Btu in 2009
  • 16  Preliminary Comparisons - 14,779 pounds/year = 33% of US total - 4.1 trillion (individual) > 3.9 trillion (industry) - US generated 24.4% of world total in 2000 - US individual share is ~ 8% of world total - Larger than Central Am., South Am., and Africa combined - Larger than all of Russia, all of India - 2/3 the total for China The Aggregate Impact of Individual Behavior Vandenbergh & Steinemann (2007)
  • 17  Viable, Fast Gap-Filler  Near-term and Long-term Reductions  Low Cost and Intrusiveness  Energy and Carbon Reductions  Magnitude  US = ~ 17% below 2005 Levels by 2020 is ~280 MtC/year  RAER-10 = 123 MtC (static) (33% of US total) The Role of the Behavioral Wedge Dietz et al, Household Actions Can Provide a Behavioral Wedge to Rapidly Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions, 106 PROC. NAT’L ACAD. SCI. 18452 (2009)
  • Behavior Change Category Potential Emissions Reduction (MTC) Behavioral Plasticity RAER (MTC) RAER (%I/H) Weatherization W 25.2 90% 21.2 3.39% HVAC Equipment W 12.2 80% 10.7 1.72% Low-flow showerheads E 1.4 80% 1.1 0.18% Efficient water heater E 6.7 80% 5.4 0.86% Appliances E 14.7 80% 11.7 1.87% LRR tires E 7.4 80% 6.5 1.05% Fuel-efficient vehicle E 56.3 50% 31.4 5.02% Change HVAC air filters M 8.7 30% 3.7 0.59% Tune up AC M 3.0 30% 1.4 0.22% Routine Auto Maintenance M 8.6 30% 4.1 0.66% Laundry temperature A 0.5 35% 0.2 0.04% Water heater temperature A 2.9 35% 1.0 0.17% Standby electricity D 9.2 35% 3.2 0.52% Thermostat setbacks D 10.1 35% 4.5 0.71% Line drying D 6.0 35% 2.2 0.35% Driving behavior D 24.1 25% 7.7 1.23% Carpooling & Trip-chaining D 36.1 15% 6.4 1.02% Totals 233   123 20% The Behavioral Wedge Dietz et al, Household Actions Can Provide a Behavioral Wedge to Rapidly Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions, 106 PROC. NAT’L ACAD. SCI. 18452 (2009)
  • Source: McKinsey (2007) Cost-Effective Household Options
  • The California Example Source: http://wwweia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_use/total/csv/use_csv Per Capita Electricity Consumption
  • Barrier Lack of Understanding and Use of Behavioral Lessons  Moving beyond a ‘rational actor’ model – Putting Price in Context – Energy Invisibility – Cognitive Miscalculations – Valuing Cognitive Costs  Marketing behavior change – Framing Effects – The Attitude-behavior Gap – Communicating Social Norms
  • Price Plays An Important But Limited Role Source: Paul Stern, Information, Incentives, and Pro-environmental Consumer Behavior, 22 J Cons Policy 461 – 478 (1999)
  • Economic Incentives Can Be Counterproductive Source: U. Gneezy & A. Rustichini, A Fine is a Price, 22 JOURNAL OF LEGAL STUDIES 1- 17 (2000).
  • Barrier: Myths Motor Vehicle Idling  Over 80% of Americans hold inaccurate/outdated beliefs about idling.  It is better to idle for __ in order to:  Save gas: 4.7 minutes  Prevent pollution: 3.6 minutes  Prevent vehicle wear: 5.7 minutes Minutes /day % of population Daily US Emissions (million lbs / kg) Annual US emissions (MMt) Daily US consumption (million gallons / liters) Annual US consumption (billion gallons / liters) Warming 2.7 48% (91.2 million) 45.6 / 20.7 7.5 2.3 / 8.7 0.9 / 3.4 Waiting 3.1 46% (87.4 million) 50.2 / 22.8 8.3 2.6 / 9.8 0.9 / 3.4 Total 95.8 / 43.5 15.8 4.9 / 18.5 1.8 / 6.8 CO2 Emissions Fuel Consumption Table 3. Estimated CO2 emissions and fuel use associated with unnecessary idling in the U.S. Source: Carrico, et al., Costly Myths: An Analysis of Idling Beliefs and Behavior in Personal Motor Vehicles, 37 Energy Policy 2881-2888
  • Perceived effectiveness of hand-washing at various temperatures Highly effective Not at all effective Barrier -- Myths Hot Water Hand Washing Source: Carrico, et al., The Environmental Cost of Misinformation: Why the Recommendation to Use Warm Water for Handwashing is Problematic, 36 INT’L J. OF CONSUMER STUDIES 1-9 (2013)
  • Hand Washing – GHG Emissions • The average respondent reported using warm or hot water 64% of the time. • When multiplied by the 8 billion hand washes performed by Americans each year, results in > 6 MMt of CO2eq/yr. • 6 MMt of CO2eq/year is: – 0.1% of annual US emissions – Greater than the annual emissions of 2 coal fired power plants • Updating beliefs could reduce total US emissions by 1 MMt annually. • 1 MMt is greater than the annual emissions of: – The Zinc or Lead industries – Countries such as Malawi or Barbados Source: Carrico, et al., The Environmental Cost of Misinformation: Why the Recommendation to Use Warm Water for Handwashing is Problematic, 36 INT’L J. OF CONSUMER STUDIES 1-9 (2013)
  • Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Fuel Economy Guide 2011, available at www.fueleconomy.gov Energy Invisibility Effect of Speed on Fuel Economy
  • Energy Invisibility Solutions  There is a potential for rapid, low-cost emissions reductions by updating beliefs.  Provide information at the time of use.  Home energy feedback displays (5-15% reduction)  Product-integrated feedback mechanisms.
  • Barrier Cognitive Miscalculations Steep discount rates - tendency to devalue future savings relevant to up-front savings. Miscalculation of potential savings (Kempton et al., 1982; Kempton & Montgomery, 1982). Failure to consider operating costs altogether (Feiler & Sol, 2009).
  • Barrier Cognitive Costs -- The Law of Least Effort Source: Eric J. Johnson, Daniel Goldstein, Do Defaults Save Lives, 302(5649) SCIENCE 1338 – 1339. (2003).
  • Framing: Preferences Depend on Context Source: David J. Hardisty,& Elke U. Weber, Discounting Future Green: Money Versus the Environment. 138(3) J EXP PSYCHOL GEN 329 – 340 (2009).
  • Barrier Effective Communication of Social Norms Social Influence Often Trumps Other Influences  The desire to accommodate social norms drives behavior.  75% of participants gave an obviously wrong answer (Asch, 1951).  Better to highlight what people are doing right rather than what they aren’t doing right.
  • Social Influence [DN] “Many past visitors have gone off the established paths, changing the natural state of the Sequoias and vegetation in this park” [IN] “Please don't go off the established paths and trails in order to protect the Sequoias and natural vegetation in this park” 33Source: Winter, et al, Choosing to encourage or discourage: Perceived effectiveness of prescriptive and proscriptive messages. 2 ENV MANAG 588-594 (2000).
  • Social Influence Source: Ayres et al. Evidence from Two Large Field Experiments that Peer Comparison Feedback can Reduce Residential Energy Usage, Working Paper
  • 35  If these solutions are available, why haven’t they been widely adopted?  Beliefs and World Views  Framing  Institutional Incentives  Scalability  The Private Governance Option Barriers
  • Source: Dunlap & McCright (2008) Barriers: Beliefs and World Views
  • Barriers: Beliefs and World Views % of Americans Who Believe Global Warming Will Pose a Serious Threat to Them or Their Way of Life During Their Lifetime, by Party (McCright 2013) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2001 2002 2006 2008 2009 2010 Democrat Republican
  • Source: House Committee on Energy and Commerce, http://bit.ly/6Xgyon Barrier: Source Framing
  • Total CO2 Emissions by Economic Sector (2006) Sector/Source 2006 Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, Mining & Construction 382.8 Manufacturing 1,516.2 Transportation 912.1 Other Services 1,114.9 Government 288.9 Households 1,841.8 TOTAL 6,056.7 Source: U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT, U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INTENSITIES OVER TIME: A DETAILED ACCOUNTING OF INDUSTRIES, GOVERNMENT AND HOUSEHOLDS 7, Fig. 3 (2010)
  • The One Percent Problem National CO2 Flows Stack & Vandenbergh (2011)(data from CAIT 2010)
  • The One Percent Problem National CO2 Stocks Stack & Vandenbergh (data from Baumert et al. 2005)
  • The One Percent Problem US Industry Aggregate Direct and Indirect Emissions Stack & Vandenbergh (data from USDC, E&S Admin.)
  • Barrier: Institutional Incentives Who Profits if Households Use Less Energy?
  • Barrier: Scalability and the Attitude-Behavior Gap  Attitudes are poor predictors of behavior.  Product marketing vs. behavioral marketing.  Most successful mass media campaigns go beyond informational appeals.  Door-to-door canvassing  Peer education  Normative persuasion  Need to balance community-based approaches with widespread scalability.
  • Barrier: Conceptions of Governance Major Pollution Control Statutes 1970-2012 (Vandenbergh, Private Environmental Governance (forthcoming 2013)) Included: Excluded: 1970 Clean Air Act National Environmental Policy Act 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act Coastal Zone Management Act 1974 Safe Drinking Water Act 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Toxic Substances Control Act 1977 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act Clean Air Act Amendments Clean Water Act 1980 Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act 1984 Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments (to RCRA) 1986 Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act SARA Amendments (to CERCLA) 1990 Oil Pollution Act Clean Air Act Amendments 1986 SDWA Amendments 1987 Water Quality Act 1988 FIFRA Amendments 1996 FQPA, SDWA Amendments 2002 CERCLA Amendments
  • What Has Filled the Gap? (STEERING COMMITTEE OF THE STATE-OF-KNOWLEDGE ASSESSMENT OF STANDARDS AND CERTIFICATION, TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY: THE ROLES AND LIMITATIONS OF CERTIFICATION (2012))
  • What Has Filled the Gap? • Fish -- • Toxics -- “ ‘The loss of public confidence [means] we’re going to increasingly have retailers that are regulators, like Wal-Mart and Target.’ ” (Inside EPA, 4/1/11)(quoting Ernie Rosenberg of the American Cleaning Institute) McDonald's USA first national restaurant chain to serve MSC certified sustainable fish at all U.S. locations
  • New Options: Private Governance
  • Beijing, China January 2013 Daytime with 755 ppm PM2.5 WHO scale is 0 to 500 ppm Source: http://img3.douban.com/view/status/raw/public/96a57cec4b3bac7.jpg
  • 50  Private and Public Governance  Global Private Carbon Label for Products  Corporate Scope 3 Disclosure  Influence of Consumers, Investors, Employees, etc.  Firm-to-Firm  Firm-Level Incentives  Nation-Level Incentives Firm Behavior & Supply Chains
  • 51  Exports up to ½ of China’s CO2 Emissions  US and Europe 41% of Exports  US and Europe 14-28% of CO2 Emissions  Firms Influence Emissions Directly  Firms Also Influence Nations Private Governance: Harnessing Supply Chains
  • 52  We know a great deal about how to influence energy and environmental behaviors.  We are not using much of what we know.  Institutional incentives and structures are critical.  New private options are a viable complement. Conclusion