TRU: 2012 a year in review

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TRU: 2012 a year in review

  1. 1. DECEMBER 2012 Global Focus Report2012: A Year in Review The Mayans thought the world would end; teens just know it’s changing fast THE GLOBAL LEADER IN YOUTH RESEARCH + INSIGHTS TRU-INSIGHT.COM / @TRUINSIGHT
  2. 2. TRU VIEWintroductionAs 2013 approaches, global teens continue to find themselves adapting to an evolving new-media landscape and a poten-tial global recession. In this TRU Global Focus Report, we’ll take a look at how teens’ vow to spend more in the comingyear could potentially help forestall an anticipated economic downturn.Additionally, TRU forecasts the future of Facebook. While we see no evidence that global teens are using the social-mediagiant any less, data from a recent U.S.-only TRU Study suggests it won’t be long before teens worldwide begin to thinkof it less as an aspirational part of their lives and more of an operational one. In other words: The thrill isn’t gone, but it’sgoing. What, if any, ramifications should this attitude shift have on brands’ social-media plans?Finally, TRU analyzes changes in the ways teens consume new media. Today’s teens are on Facebook, Orkut, Renren, orTwitter, not the device that supplies them. That’s a sea change from a not-too-distant past, when youth allotted time intheir day with the express purpose of “going online.”Read more about it … DECEMBER 2012
  3. 3. TRU VIEWInsight #1:Teen spending mayhelp assuage loomingglobal recession.We’re often asked what 2013 holds interms of global spending and the econ-omy. TRU boasts three decades of expe-rience with young people and a globalreach, but—alas—we haven’t yet perfectedthe art of fortune-telling. Considering theold joke that economists have success-fully predicted 40 of the past five reces-sions, we’ll let them try to burnish—or re-form—that record themselves. In case youhaven’t heard, the dismal scientists fromThe Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and theOrganization for Economic Cooperationand Development are particularly downon the world’s near-term prospects. In only way global teens are sharing WSJ or Of course, parents’ and teens’ definitionsfact, the OECD recently said that fore- FT links on Facebook is if they’re looking of “need” can be quite different, so it’scasts for the global economy tendered to lose friends. incumbent upon brands to find commonin the spring are cloudy with a chance ground (when possible). While teens’ Fact is seven out of 10 global teens be-of thunderstorms, with U.S. budget woes primary motivation may be impulse or lieve their future standard of living willand, in particular, high unemployment in even peer pressure, for parents it often be better than their parents’, with a merethe tumultuous 17-country Eurozone be- boils down to value. “Will buying [insert 4% predicting it’ll be worse. And, foring largely to blame. product or service here] for my child just teens, impatient for adulthood and in spoil him or her, or does it have residualBut here’s the thing about economists’ constant need of instant gratification, the benefit?” Such benefits could include alabyrinthine algorithms and apocalyp- future means tomorrow (almost literally). compelling value proposition comparedtic forecasts: teens could care less. This TRU’s not saying global youth can single- to a future purchase, a fail-safe money-isn’t the first time teens have endured an handedly counteract adults who seem to back guarantee, or tangible developmenteconomic spasm; in fact, for some teens be poisoning the economic well, or even promises such as improved educationalit’s all they’ve ever known. They’re bored that they’ll make good on their promise productivity, fitness, or motor skills. Con-with it and, perhaps, even resentful of to spend more. What TRU is saying is sider a recent Facebook campaign by theit. They viscerally want retail therapy that they want to spend and, given the German retailer Bonprix: By leveragingwhether it’s prudent or not. The plurality resources (e.g., parents’ money or access information gleaned from users’ “likes”of teens (46%) tell TRU that they expect to to credit cards), they very well may. If the and interests, Bonprix was able to micro-spend more in the next year than they did largest generation in history decides to target both teen girls and women theirin the previous one (a full 86% say theyll go shopping, the results might just sur- mothers’ age with “right-rail ads” offeringspend the same or more), while only 14% prise the experts. discounts on apparel. The bottom line isof 12- to 19-year-olds anticipate spending Implication #1: that parents don’t want to feel grifted—less. Furthermore, global youth, taken Make sure parental either by their kids or brands. Targetedas a whole, are an optimistic lot. More messaging that caters to Mom and Dad’soften than not, they’ll see the glass half approval is part of high standards or sense of thrift can be ef-full even when all evidence suggests it’s the equation. fective, so long as it doesn’t work againstdrying on the dish rack. Grim prospects It’s important to remember that four-fifths what teens find attractive about the brandmay dampen their parents’ spirits, but of global teens’ spending money comes in the first place.it’s doubtful teens will fully comprehendor even acknowledge the bad news. The from their parents on an as-needed basis. DECEMBER 2012
  4. 4. TRU VIEWSPENDING OUTLOOK (%) standard of living (%)GLOBAL TEENS GLOBAL TEENSSpend more money 46 Mine will be better 70Spend about the same 40 Mine will be about the same 26Spend less money 14 Mine will be worse 4Question: Do you think you are going to spend more money, about the same, or less money in Question: As an adult, how do you think your standard of living (how much money you make,the next 12 months as you did in the past 12 months? how nice your house and cars are, etc.) will compare to your parents? DECEMBER 2012
  5. 5. TRU VIEWInsight #2:Global teens are stillusing Facebook a lot,but soon won’t like itas much.Facebook is the only website that morethan half of global teens (55%) call theirfavorite; Google (33%) is a very distantsecond. In fact, Facebook is the favor-ite site in each of the seven regionsmeasured for this report. Further, moreglobal teens tell TRU that they visitsocial-networking sites like Facebookseveral times a day this year (37%) thanlast year (31%). (For full disclosure’s sake,last year TRU fielded in 40 countries,three more than this year). So, what’s the teens and Facebook are amidst a torrid smitten with it. Eventually, everythingproblem? Why is TRU even suggesting like/dislike relationship, with fewer and will go the way of Obsolessence™—theFacebook fatigue is coming when the per- fewer U.S Millennials leaning “like.” In TRU theme that forecasts inevitable ir-centages indicate otherwise? other words, while they still use it a lot, relevance—and Facebook is no different.For one thing, Facebook is losing luster many tell us they don’t like it as much. Don’t let Facebook’s miserable IPO doomamong U.S. teens—the very individuals First, let’s explore the positive side of your social-media plans. Did people stopwho were first exposed to the soc-net site the equation: 46% of U.S. teens feel out of listening to music when musicians start-nearly nine years ago. They’re the first- touch if they haven’t been on Facebook ed getting less money to make it? Forresponders and the undisputed guinea in a few days, and 37% call Facebook an now, stay the course. The fact is that morepigs in the Facebook experiment. We can important part of their lives. Now, for the than half of global teens call Facebookuse their archetypal ambivalent relation- negative side: Just 43% of U.S. teens call their favorite website, and no other web-ship with the premier social network as Facebook more popular now than it was site (social media or otherwise) is evena global harbinger. When Facebook first six months ago; just 41% are more ac- close to that percentage. So it’s importantramped up, and for several years there- tive on Facebook now than they were six that marketers not jump off the band-after, MySpace was the dominant social- months ago; and only 22% couldn’t live wagon for the next big thing because itmedia player in the U.S. Since then, it’s without Facebook. hasn’t rolled into the station yet. Rare ex-been all Facebook—primarily because no ceptions, of course, are in China, where True, these percentages only representcompetitor (not Twitter, not Pinterest, not Facebook is forbidden (and Renren is its how one country’s teens feel about Face-Instagram) has been able to usurp it. But equivalent), or in Russia, where V Kon- book. But, if there’s one thing Facebookthat doesn’t mean U.S. teens remain rav- takte and Odnoklassniki duel with Face- has taught us, it’s that young people areenous Facebook evangelists; they’re sim- book for supremacy. Furthermore, there’s more similar than they are different inply without better alternatives. (In fact, great parity with regards to which web- terms of how they behave and interactOrkut, too, seemed indefatigable in Bra- site is riding Facebook’s coattails: In the with the world around them.zil until Facebook arrived, and now Orkut U.S. and U.K., it’s Twitter; in Austria, Bel-is fast playing second fiddle.) Therefore, Implication #2: gium, and Italy, it’s Badoo; and in BrazilU.S. teens, in particular, are more likely Don’t give up on and India it’s Orkut. In fact, in several ar- eas—including the Nordics, Canada, andnow than ever ready to abandon it for the Facebook too soon. Australia—LinkedIn is the second-most“next big thing” should it come along. Consider it a case of “down, but not out.” popular soc-net site, and while LinkedInUsing data culled from The U.S. TRU All things considered, it’s more impor- may be great for networking, there’s noth-Study 2013, we’ve learned that while fa- tant that global teens are still using Face- ing youthful about it.miliarity hasn’t quite bred contempt, U.S. book than that they’re no longer quite so DECEMBER 2012
  6. 6. TRU VIEWtop-5 favorite wEBSITES (%)REGIONASIA PACIFIC (%) MENA (%)Facebook 52 Facebook 64Google 40 Google 45Yahoo (net) 28 YouTube 36YouTube 21 Yahoo (net) 26Naver 10 Hotmail 15AUSTRALIA (%) NORTH AMERICA (%)Facebook 67 Facebook 67Google 39 YouTube 35YouTube 32 Google 21Hotmail 14 Hotmail 12eBay 11 Yahoo (net) 11EUROPE (%) SUB-Saharan africa (%)Facebook 52 Facebook 70YouTube (net) 27 Yahoo (net) 40Google (net) 23 Google (net) 35Vkontakte.ru 17 Mxit.co.za 13Mail.ru 6 Twitter 11 Question: Please write in the names of the three websiteslatin america (%) where you spend the most time.Facebook 50YouTube 40Google 37Orkut 34MSN (net) 20attitudes towards facebook (TOP-2 BOX %)BASE: U.S. TEENS WITH FACEBOOK PROFILE Female Total Male Facebook changes its format/layout too often 56 54 58I feel out of touch if I have not been on Facebook in a few days 46 42 49Facebook is more popular now than it was six months ago 43 47 40I am more active on Facebook now than I was six months ago 41 45 36I’m worried about my privacy on Facebook 41 39 42I am getting tired of Facebook 40 41 40I think Facebook takes up too much of my time 40 37 44Facebook is an important part of my life 37 36 37I couldn’t live without Facebook 22 22 22Bolding denotes significant difference.Question: Thinking about how you spend time on Facebook, how much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? DECEMBER 2012
  7. 7. TRU VIEWInsight #3:In an increasinglyapp-based world,global teens arecomputing, butless and less at acomputer.Increasingly, being online is analogousto simply being. It’s rarely about seek-ing out and parking oneself in front ofcomputer hardware: Desktops are well ontheir way to Obsolessence, while newersolutions such as smartphones and tab-lets are designed to be even more mobilethan laptops.Today, it’s about the online experience,not the process. Global teens are on Face-book, Orkut, or Renren, and how they gotthere is, for them, immaterial. The em-phasis is on computing, not the comput-er. Who cares if the message went out viaemail, text, IM, Skype, or call to confirm ameet time? Who can recall if a Facebookupdate was issued on a laptop, an iPad, or Implication #3: accounting for most of the growth, youtha Galaxy S III? The important thing is the Be “smart” about aren’t shy about making the family’s tech-message, not the method. how you treat nology their own (they’ve been doing it with TVs and desktops for years!). AndTrue, smartphones (36% ownership global teens, when they’re finally able to trade in theirworldwide) aren’t yet the norm, and tab- now and forever. starter phone for one of the “smart” va-lets (11% ownership) remain an indulgent riety, they’ll be that much more able to Granted, the majority of global teensextravagance for most, but it’s clear what navigate it. don’t own smartphones or tablets. Butroad we’re headed down. Purchase intent that’s where they were, not where they’re Brands need to think less about whereof desktop computers—the only online- going. If you see a striker streaking across they’re appearing (e.g., Facebook orcompatible device that more than half of the center circle, you pass the ball in frontglobal teens currently own—is lower than Twitter), and more about why a consumer of him (not to or behind him), becausethat of laptops, smartphones, tablets, and should need them. What utility or enter- that’s where momentum is carrying himeven e-readers. tainment value does a brand provide? and that’s his best chance to score. The Global teens have no end of new-media-Mobility and ever-present online access same goes for mobile marketing. If you’re related stimuli to digest, so asking a teenis increasingly vital to teens who’ve cho- a brand, don’t concern yourself with per- to divide his or her time between watch-sen to join the online conversation. After centages when it comes to smartphone ing TV, texting, browsing, and beingall, their profiles make it inevitable that or tablet ownership. Just know this: it’s amongst friends, demands a “what’s-in-they’ll be part of the discussion, whether growing rapidly worldwide. In fact, the it-for-me” return on investment. Treatingthey’re there to react or not. The only market intelligence firm HIS iSuppli global teens less like K-I-D-S and moreway to monitor and curate their social forecasts that 2013 will mark the first year like V-I-P-S—with arsenals of discounts,media presence—whether they’re being that smartphones will account for more deals, and front-of-the-line access—tagged in a photo, referenced in a tweet, than half of all cellphone shipments (54%, is paramount.or included in upcoming plans—is to be up from 46% in 2012, and 35% in 2011). Soonline, all the time and from everywhere. even if it’s global teens’ parents who are DECEMBER 2012
  8. 8. TRU VIEWDURABLE ITEMS: TOTAL OWNERSHIP (%) TOTAL Latin North Asia Sub-Saharan Region GLOBAL Pacific Australia Europe America MENA America AfricaMobile phone 80 78 77 79 86 92 77 77 27 62 49 27 50 57 22Smartphone 36 Desktop computer 56 46 83 76 61 79 83 15Laptop computer 50 37 87 73 46 58 84 17Tablet computer 11 7 27 15 7 23 18 2E-book reader 10 11 15 13 3 13 18 1Bolding denotes significant difference.Questions: Which of the following do you personally own? Which of the following does your family own?DURABLE ITEMS: PURCHASE INTENT (%) TOTAL Latin North Asia Sub-Saharan Region GLOBAL Pacific Australia Europe America MENA America Africa 22 22 23 20 18 18 Smartphone 21 18Laptop computer 20 21 12 16 24 24 16 21Mobile phone 16 15 10 11 20 29 7 22Tablet computer 15 11 30 27 10 17 12 8E-book reader 12 7 26 23 2 14 9 7Desktop computer 9 10 7 8 8 9 4 12Bolding denotes significant difference.Question: Which of the following do you plan to buy in the next 12 months? DECEMBER 2012

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