Marja Vaarama: Development of inequality in Finland according to some social indicators from 1990’s up today
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Marja Vaarama: Development of inequality in Finland according to some social indicators from 1990’s up today

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Inequality and the Nordic Welfare Model –seminar ...

Inequality and the Nordic Welfare Model –seminar
7th November 2011, Helsinki

Development of inequality in Finland according to some social indicators from 1990’s up today
Marja Vaarama

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  • 1. Development of inequality in Finland according to some social indicators from 1990’s up today Inequality and the Nordic Welfare Model –seminar 7th November 2011, Helsinki Marja Vaarama marja.vaarama@thl.fi08/11/2011 Inequality in Finland / Marja Vaarama 1
  • 2. Contents• Nordic Welfare Model in an international comparison (data varies between the years 1998- 2004) – A quick look at Wilkinson & Picket 2009• Finland today – the two sides of the coin• What happened after W&P - Finnish welfare state in a Nordic comparison in the years 2000-2010 • Eurostat 2011, Nososco 2010• Summing up - an average comparison of Finland with other Nordic countries based on W&P• Discussion08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 2
  • 3. Richard Wilkinson Emeritus Professor of Social EpidemiologyUniversity of Nottingham & Kate PickettProfessor of Epidemiology University of York
  • 4. General message of W&P:Almost everyone benefits fromgreater equalityUsually the benefits are greatestamong the poor, but extend to themajority of the populationOverall result: Nordic countries aremost equal in the comparison
  • 5. Among the rich countries life expectancy is not related to national differences in average incomeSource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 6. Life Expectancy is related to inequality in rich countriesSource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 7. Health and Social Problems are not Related to Average Income in Rich Countries Index of: • Life expectancy • Math & Literacy • Infant mortality • Homicides • Imprisonment • Teenage births • Trust • Obesity • Mental illness – incl. drug & alcohol addiction • Social mobilitySource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 8. Health and Social Problems are Worse in More Unequal Countries Index of: • Life expectancy • Math & Literacy • Infant mortality • Homicides • Imprisonment • Teenage births • Trust • Obesity • Mental illness – incl. drug & alcohol addiction • Social mobilitySource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 9. Child-Wellbeing is Unrelated to Average Incomes in Rich CountriesSource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 10. Child Well-being is Better in More Equal Rich CountriesSource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 11. Levels of Trust are Higher in More Equal Rich CountriesSource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 12. Finland today – the two sides of thecoin08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 12
  • 13. Finnish welfare state – a success story?• According to international rankings – yes (Wilkinson & Pickett 2009, also e.g. Yee & Chang 2009, Veenhoven 2010, Newsweek 2010)• High level of wellbeing and social quality of the society• Low level of poverty and material deprivation. One of the lowest income inequalities in OECD countries• High equality of opportunity: high level of intergenerational income and social mobility• High gender equality: single and married women have same employment rate, gender wage gap 15-20%• Lowest infant mortality and teenage pregnancy in the world. “Relatively” high fertility rate of 1.84• One of the least corrupted country in the world• Public services produce “top results with average spending”• Top placing at Education Index (UN) and Children’s literacy (PISA/OECD)• Competitive and adaptive economy with skilled workforce THL 13
  • 14. Our problem: Increasing disparities since theGreat Depression of 1990’ies• Socioeconomic differences in health and mortality large and getting bigger• Long-term unemployed remained high after the 1990s• Level of basic security left behind average earning by 30-40% in the last two decades. Social assistance become long-term for many• Relative (child) poverty and income inequalities increased• Alcohol related deaths increased by twofold since 1997• Use of mental health services fourfold since 1997• Number of children in custody almost twofold since 1991• 10% of youth categorized as school dropouts• Youngsters aged 18-24 with low education and unemployment, disability pensioners, and frail older people 80+ most vulnerable for low life quality THL 14
  • 15. Mortality increases continuously asincome diminishesMortality of men aged 30 or over in the lowest income decileis 2.4 times higher than in the highest decile, among womenthe difference is 1.7-fold Relative mortality 2,5 Women Naiset 2,0 Miehet Men 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Highest Suurituloisin Lowest Pienituloisin Income decilesSource: Martikainen P. et al. Int J Epid 2001;30:1397-1405 15
  • 16. Employment and unemployment in Finland 1989-2010 100 20 95 18 90 16 85 14 Unemployment rate %Employment rate % 80 12 75 10 70 8 65 6 60 4 55 2 50 0 2011* 1997 2006 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 Employment rate Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Finland. Labour Force Survey. 8.11.2011 THL 16
  • 17. Relative (child) poverty rate andinequality GINI (%) 1966-2010 in Finland 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1966 1971 1976 1981 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Relative poverty rate Child poverty rate Inequality GINI * Year 2010 is a microsimulation estimation. Source: Statistics Finland. TUJA-model.8.11.2011 THL 17
  • 18. Gini-coefficient of income inequality in OECDcountries, mid-2000 EU-average ca. 30 % Sources: Growing Unequal? OECD, 200808/11/2011 18
  • 19. Point changes in the Gini coefficient mid-1980to mid-2000 in OECD countries Sources: Growing Unequal? OECD, 2008 08/11/2011 19
  • 20. Social assistance expenditures andbeneficiaries 1985-2010 Persons Million euros700 000 700600 000 600500 000 500400 000 400300 000 300200 000 200100 000 100 0 0 1990 1992 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Beneficiaries Long-term beneficiaries Expenditures * Year 2010 long-term beneficiaries is an estimate. Source: Social Assistance, THL.8.11.2011 THL 20
  • 21. Finland in a Nordic comparison with 21indicators of W&P and one extra (care ofolder people) in the years 2000-2010• Most of the indicators studied here have been developed in Finland to a positive direction during the last 10 years• Still most of the indicators demonstrate for Finland lower performance than in other Nordic countries• Most negative development has occurred in employment, exclusion of young people, development of poverty risk, increasing obesity and in the care supply for older people08/11/2011 BiggestPresentation name / Author 21
  • 22. Life expectancy in the Nordic countries2001-2010, femalesSource: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 22
  • 23. Life expectancy in the Nordic countries2001-2010, menSource: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 23
  • 24. Total fertility rate in the Nordic countries 2001-2010Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 24
  • 25. Infant mortality in the Nordic countries 2001-2010 (/1000 live births)Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 25
  • 26. Employment rate in the Nordic countries 2000-2010,age group 20-64, target 75 %(Source: Eurostat 2011)08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 26
  • 27. Long-term unemployment in % of active population inthe Nordic countries 2001-2010Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 27
  • 28. Youth unemployment rate % of youth labour force(15-24) in the Nordic countries 2003-2010Source: OECD 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 28
  • 29. Early leavers from education and training in Nordiccountries 2000-2010 (Percentage of the population aged 18-24 withat most lower secondary education)Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 29
  • 30. Young people aged 18-24 not in employment andnot in any education and training in the Nordiccountries 2008-2010, %Source: Eurostat 2011
  • 31. People living in households with very low workintensity in the Nordic countries 2004-2009/10(Adults worked less than 20 % of their work potential during the year)Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 31
  • 32. Gender pay gap in the Nordic countries 2006-2009Source: Eurostat 2011 Obs. No of completed working hours does not differ between e.g. Sweden and Finland, but other Nordic Countries have more part-time workers than Finland08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 32
  • 33. People at-risk-of-poverty (%) in the Nordic countries2001-2009/10Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 33
  • 34. Less than 16 years old population at-risk-of povertyor social exclusion (%) in the Nordic countries2004-2009/10Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 34
  • 35. Materially deprived people (%) in the Nordic countries2003-2010Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 35
  • 36. Live births per 1000 15-19 years old women in theNordic countries 2000-2008Source: Nososco 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 36
  • 37. Death due to homicide, assault in the Nordic countries2000-2009 (Standardized death rate by 100 000 inhabitants)Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 37
  • 38. Death due to drug dependence in the Nordic countries2000-2009 (Standardized death rate by 100 000 inhabitants)Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 38
  • 39. Death due to alcoholic abuse in the Nordic countries2000-2009 (Standardized death rate by 100 000 inhabitants)Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 39
  • 40. Death due to suicide in the Nordic countries2000-2009 (Standardized death rate by 100 000 inhabitants)Source: Eurostat 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 40
  • 41. Prison population rate in the Nordic countries2001, 2004 and 2009 (per 100 000 inhabitants)Source: OECD 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 41
  • 42. Self-reported obesity in the Nordic countries 2000-2009(adult population with a BMI>30)Source: OECD 201108/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 42
  • 43. Long-term care in percent of the age groups 65 yearsor more 2000-2008/2009 (NOSOSCO 2010)
  • 44. Summing up - an average comparison ofFinland with other Nordic countries• Re-interpretation of the W&P results in comparison with Nordic countries around 2000/2001• using selected 4 dimensions of social sustainability – Social security, social inclusion, social empowerment, social cohesion• The results of this simple comparison demonstrates for Finland – relatively good performance in social empowerment – but lowest performance in social security and social cohesion08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 44
  • 45. The four dimensions of Social Sustainability 1. Social empowerment Indicators of achievement in education, health and administration 5 indicators with average rank 2 (out of 3) e.g. child mortality, mathematics/literacy in school (PISA) 2. Social security Indicators of social security and employment 7 indicators with average rank 0,14 (out of 3) e.g. income, employment 3. Social inclusion Indicators of inequality and social justice 7 indicators with average rank 1 (out of 3) e.g. income inequality, gender gap 4. Social cohesion Indicators of social problems 12 indicators with average rank 0,8 (out of 3) e.g. happiness, suicideSource: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 46. Average Rank of Finland from 0 – 3 compared with other Nordic countries social social inequality/inclusion problems/cohesion 3,00 3,00 1,00 0,8 0,14 2,00 3,00 3,00 social security social achievement /empowerment Note: Finland gets 1 point for each country with a lower rank. The average rank is calculated over 5 – 12 indicators/dimension.Source: Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level (2009)
  • 47. Discussion• Since the W&P analyses the development in our country has been in many indicators positive, but in many also toward increasing inequality• Among Nordic Countries, Finland gets lowest ranks in social security, social inclusion and social cohesion• Income inequality has been increasing in Finland but the same happened also in other Nordic countries – still, other Nordic countries have not faced similar negative development as Finland• WHY?• Lower GDP, lower employment rate and structural unemployment explain a lot, and to improve the situation we need to find new ways to improve the employment rate• But we need also to create better understanding of other factors and mechanisms that lead to inequality - and maybe we can learn from other Nordic countries how to improve social inclusion and cohesion• The new government aims at fighting against inequality, and we of course hope that it will change this undesired development – this we need also to follow up08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 47
  • 48. Jyrki Katainen’s government program,three major goals1. Reducing poverty, exclusion and health inequalities2. Balancing the public economy3. Increasing inclusion, labour market participation and prolonging the working careers Health and wellbeing perspective must be included in all decision making across the entire public administration Ecological, economical and social sustainability of the Finnish Welfare Society is the goal, and this calls for integrated, comprehensive policies08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 48
  • 49. Still valid?A vision of a better society: Which weapons?Beveridge fighting the five evils
  • 50. Thank You!08/11/2011 Presentation name / Author 50