TEFAF presentation 2012

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  • 1. 16th March, 2012 Dr. Clare Mc Andrew ARTS ECONOMICS clare@artseconomics.com©Arts Economics 2012 2012 ©Arts Economics
  • 2. The Global Art Market• Analysis of the market in 2011• Trends in the market over 25 years• Impact and outlook©Arts Economics 2012
  • 3. Value and Volume of Sales €60 60 VALUE (€bn) VOLUME (m) €48.1 €50 50 €46.1 €43.0 €40 40 €28.3 €30 30 €20 €18.6 20 €10 10 €0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011©Arts Economics 2012
  • 4. Fine Art Top Prices in 2011 Qi Bashi 22/5/11China Guardian Roy Lichtenstein (Beijing) 8/11/11 €46 million Christie’s (Paris) Paul Cezanne €45 million Summer 2011 UNCONFIRMED Private Sale Wang Meng $250+ million USD 4/6/11 Poly International (Beijing) €43 million Clyfford Still Francesco Guardi 9/11/11 6/7/11Sotheby’s (New York) Sotheby’s (New €45 million York) €30 million ©Arts Economics 2012
  • 5. Fine Art Auction Market 2011 Share of Lots Sold Share of Sales Value €50,000 to €500,000 31% €50,000 to €500,000 6% Over Less than €500,000 €50,000 50% Over 93% €500,000 1% Less than €50,000 19%©Arts Economics
  • 6. Dealer Market 2011 Over €500,000 3% €50,000 to €500,000 17% Less than €50,000 80%©Arts Economics
  • 7. Global Market Share 2011 Switzerland 3% France 6% Others 10% China 30% UK 22% US 29%©Arts Economics 2012
  • 8. Global Market Share 2006 China 5% France 6% Others 16% US 46% UK 27%©Arts Economics 2012
  • 9. Chinese Auction Sales€12,000 €9,808€10,000 €8,000 €5,962 €6,000 €4,000 €2,012 €2,152 €2,151 €2,000 €1,516 €1,560 €691 €0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ©Arts Economics 2012
  • 10. Chinese Auction Transactions 700,000 Lots Offered Lots Sold 600,000 500,000 400,000 Buy-ins 300,000 200,000 284,941 100,000 219,252 112,616 127,851 117,992 138,304 99,797 108,923 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011©Arts Economics 2012
  • 11. Chinese Art Market: Risk Factors• Regional buyer base• Auction dominated• Issues in legal and regulatory framework• Some shortage of expertise• Non and late payment at auction• Potential credit crunch and lack of liquidity Ink Horse Painting Xu Beihong©Arts Economics 2012
  • 12. The Global Contemporary Sector €1,000 40,000 €914.9 €944.8 Value Volume €871.3 35,000 €800 30,000 €580.0 25,000 €600 20,000 Million Euro €433.7 €400 15,000 €312.7 €219.8 10,000 €200 €172.5 €91.7 €84.7 5,000 €0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011©Arts Economics 2012
  • 13. The Modern Sector €6,000 €5,674 200,000 Value Volume 180,000 €5,000 160,000 140,000 €4,000 €3,838 €3,531 120,000 Million Euro €3,125 €2,918 €3,000 100,000 80,000 €2,000 €1,884 €1,719 €1,506 60,000 €1,337 €1,106 40,000 €1,000 20,000 €0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011©Arts Economics 2012
  • 14. Old Masters Market Share VALUE VOLUME Others 9% Switzerland US 18% Others 3% 27% France 4%US 16% China 18% Germany 10% UK 16% China 53% France UK 15% 12%©Arts Economics
  • 15. Key Trends Over 25 Years • Massive increase in size of sales (volume and value) • Globalisation of supply and demand • Growth of internet • Changing infrastructure of the art trade • Event-driven market and growth of art fairs • Changing tastes (rise of Contemporary/ decline older sectors) • Rise of art as investment • Competition for supply • Increased burden of regulation©Arts Economics 2012
  • 16. Global Sales 1990-2011 $70 $65.8 $64.1 $60 $50 $39.4 $40 Billion USD $27.2 $30 $19.9 $20 $14.3 $9.7 $10 $0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011©Arts Economics 2012
  • 17. Growth of the Internet • Integral communication and marketing device for the trade • Increased transparency • Lower margins • Online sales remain low • More information but still more expertise required©Arts Economics 2012
  • 18. Changes in the Structure of the Trade •Growth of auction houses as retailers and increases in private sales •Fairs and the event-driven market • Retail gallery in decline •Rise of the art consultant •The artist as a market force © Bob and Roberta Smith, Save the Arts©Arts Economics 2012
  • 19. Outlook• Art market makes large economic contribution- over 403,000 global businesses• Supported 2.4 million jobs in 2011• Ancillary industry spending of over €11.5 billion• Globalisation, information distribution and patterns of wealth shaping market in 2012• Continued economic uncertainty:➥Art as a valid alternative investment - increased demand➥Lack of alternatives to art - reduced supply©Arts Economics 2012
  • 20. www.artseconomics.com©Arts Economics 2012