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TBR 1Q11 Oracle Initial Response

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Technology Business Research is a different kind of research company. Our bottoms-up approach provides a look at the technology industry unlike anything you’ve seen before. We analyze company …

Technology Business Research is a different kind of research company. Our bottoms-up approach provides a look at the technology industry unlike anything you’ve seen before. We analyze company performance in professional services, networking and mobility, computing and hardware, and software on a quarterly basis, leveraging our data to create industry benchmarks and landscapes that provide a business perspective on leaders and laggards and their business plans. We are experts in the business of technology.

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  • 1. SOFTWARE BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM1Q11 INITIAL RESPONSEOracleFirst Calendar Quarter 2011Third Fiscal Quarter 2011 Ended Feb. 28, 2011Publish Date: March 25, 2011Author: Jessica Breen (jessica.breen@tbri.com), SBQ AnalystContent Editor: Stuart Williams, SBQ Practice Manager TBR T E C H N O L O G Y B U S I N E S S R ES E AR C H , I N C .
  • 2. Executive Summary TBRThe results don’t lie – Oracle’s big bet on an integrated stack is paying off TBR Position Oracle Objectives • Oracle’s long-term strategy of building and Become the leading provider of an integrated stack to acquiring an integrated stack is succeeding provide complete IT solutions from hardware to across income and balance sheets and cash applications flow measures. • Oracle maintains integration across its software pieces in • The software-to-software integration database, middleware, applications and business intelligence. accounts for the majority of the company’s The company emphasized the value of its business success, and hardware-to-software intelligence portfolio during 1Q11 to show use cases that provided customers with insight. integrations are beginning to make strong • Sales and units shipped for Exadata and Exalogic grew 50% contributions. quarterly as Oracle realizes deals in its pipeline. Add $1.5 billion in hardware operating profits in FY11, and $2 billion in FY12 – difficult to break out now • Hardware sales reached $1.66 billion; however, Oracle missed ORCL 1Q11 PERFORMANCE VS. EXPECTATIONS the mark on its guidance for Hardware Systems Products by(in $ millions) Consensus Guidance Range Actual $100 million. Oracle is trading volume for margin.Revenue $ 8,400 $ 8,450 - 8,700 $ 8,764 • While the cost of selling hardware was upwards of 50% forOperating Income N/A N/A $ 3,300 Sun, Oracle pruned that cost to 46% of hardware sales inNon-GAAP EPS $0.47 $0.48-$0.50 $ 0.54 1Q11. This is an indication that Oracle is realizing some gained efficiencies in hardware by focusing on driving high margins. ORCL 2Q11 GUIDANCE AND EXPECTATIONS Take enterprise applications market share leadership away(in $ millions) TBR Estimate Consensus Guidance Range from SAP through the release of Java applicationsRevenue $ 10,634 $ 10,490 $ 10,450 - 10,830 • Oracle Fusion Applications will stimulate new revenue growthOperating Income $ 3,570 N/A N/A in license, maintenance and services with its full release in CY11; however, SAP’s release of in-memory computingNon-GAAP EPS N/A $0.66 $0.69 - $0.73 applications will likely slow down the near 30% year-to-year growth rate in applications seen this quarter.2 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 3. Executive Summary TBRThe software business performed well as cloud and applications ledgrowth Key Developments • Applications revenue from Oracle’s software business grew rapidly during 1Q11 at 17.2% year-to-year, reaching $1.86 billion. TBR believes the ongoing release of Oracle Fusion A refresh in Applications will continue to drive a refresh in new license deals, which increased 34.0% applications is the year-to-year. driver behind rapid 1 • Technology revenue rose 19.4% year-to-year as Oracle’s integrated software value revenue growth proposition continues to drive growth. within the segment • All Oracle regions grew by double digits year-to-year, with APAC and Americas leading the way. TBR believes the regional growth drove the increases in regional headcount in the Americas and APAC regions of 2.8% and 2.5% year-to-year, respectively. • As Oracle remains open to providing solutions via multiple delivery methods, the shift to On-demand subscription-based pricing caused the company to capture strong growth in its on- growth picks up as demand business. a result of the shift • Revenue rose 61.6% year-to-year, reaching $341 million in sales. to cloud-based infrastructures • Growth in on-demand revenue was the driving force behind the 23.1% year-to-year 1 increase in services revenue and speaks to the success of the software portfolio. • The company faces competition from a re-energized SAP and threats of more industry 1Q11 brings a consolidation from Infor. renewed struggle • SAP is rolling out its own High Availability Network Appliance (HANA) and 10 applications on 1 software the with in-memory database technology. SAP is betting the farm on in-memory as one way to front reduce the unintended attach sale of Oracle databases across more than half of its installed base.3 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 4. Executive Summary TBROracle plays hardball to drive its hardware business Key Developments • TBR believes Oracle made a measured decision to discontinue development for Itanium processors to reduce a competitive threat to its SPARC-based hardware in the enterprise Oracle attacked server and high-performance computing market. HP’s Integrity • By reducing competition for its SPARC line of hardware, Oracle is trying to force HP and server base by Intel to remain producers of lower-margin x86-based systems. dropping support • The Itanium disruption will allow Oracle to gain hardware customers among its existing for Itanium software subscribers on Integrity; however, the aggressive move will also enable competitor IBM to provide alternative options to customers who are unhappy with an all- Oracle solution. • The hardware business increased 263% year-to-year on one month of Sun revenue from $458 million in 1Q10 to $1,664 million in 1Q11. It was not all good news, however, as Hardware hardware systems products missed guidance by nearly $100 million, at $1,035 million. comparisons from • Oracle is attempting to replicate IBM’s success with fully-integrated, mission-critical a year ago inflated growth solutions of hardware and software. Oracle’s model will lock customers into long-term, value-priced relationships, in which they will be willing to pay the premium for powerful solutions. Oracle’s integrated • Oracle’s integrated stack strategy led to business success during the quarter, as all stack strategy business units grew in unison. Oracle’s ability to deliver hardware with its own software drives attach sales and add-on services contributed to organic revenue growth during the quarter. of software in • President Mark Hurd reported a 50% increase in sequential sales growth of Exadata and addition to hardware growth Exalogic units as adoption of the systems ramps up.4 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 5. Executive Summary TBROn-demand hybrid hosting, SaaS and managed services allow Oracleto sell more software by enabling flexible consumption Segment Revenue Performance and Strategies Segment Financials TBR ORACLE PERCENT REVENUE BY SEGMENT License revenue increased to $2.2 Sun 75% New License billion as a result of strong application Percent Apps Revenue 46.8% growth on the year. 50% License Updates and Support revenue 25% 21.2% grew 36.9% year-to-year to $3.7 billion, 19.0% Maintenance as customer support attach and 13.1% 0% 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 renewal rates remained at high levels. Est. Applications Technology Services Hardware Consulting revenue increased 18.6% SOURCE: TBR AND ORACLE Consulting year-to-year to $772 million, as consumer spending continued to rise. On-Demand revenue rose 61.6% year- ORACLE SEGMENT CONTRIBUTIONSTBR 100% $458 On-Demand to-year to $341 million following 90% $1,831 $1,698 $1,753 $1,664 $1,917 continued adoption of cloud offerings. Percent of Total Revenue $931 80% $1,108 $1,185 $1,146 $1,203 70% $1,068 60% Education revenue grew 20.3% $3,297 $3,877 50% 40% $3,431 $3,450 $3,645 $3,740 Education year-to-year to $83 million as new 30% customers trained staff to use products. 20% $3,135 $3,637 10% $1,718 $1,999 $2,214 $1,286 0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Est. Hardware revenue increased to $1.7 Hardware Product Consulting, On Demand, & Education Hardware billion in 1Q11, driven by strong sales Maintenance New LicenseSOURCE: TBR AND ORACLE from the Exadata/Exalogic product line.5 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 6. Financial Model Strategy TBRGross margins decreased slightly year-to-year on increased salesthrough a balance of hardware and software systems Revenues ORACLE PROFITABILITY AND GROWTH • Services revenue growth continued in 1Q11, driven TBR 90.0% 90% by new license revenue growth in the quarter as well 80.0% 80% as continued success of hardware services from the 70.0% 70% Revenue Growth 60.0% 60% Sun acquisition. 50.0% 50% Margins 40.0% 40% • License revenue increased 28.9% year-to-year, from 30.0% 30% $1.72 billion to $2.21 billion in 1Q11. 20.0% 20% 10.0% 10% • Software updates and maintenance rose 13.4% year- 0.0% 0% -10.0% -10% to-year to $3.74 billion, or 42.7% of revenue. 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Est. Expenses Calendar Quarter • Cost of sales rose 41.8% year-to-year as a result of Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Revenue Growth Year-to-Year low hardware and services gross margins. SOURCE: TBR AND ORACLE • S&M expenses increased 30.4% year-to-year as a result of additional headcount and acquisitions. • G&A expenses rose 21.2% year-to-year as a result of TBR ORACLE PERCENT EXPENSE BY FUNCTION Sun acquisitions in 1Q11. 30% 23.0% Percent of Revenue • R&D expenses increased 36.9 year-to-year as a result 25% of increased headcount through additional 20% 18.5% investment in R&D. 15% 10% 12.9% Margins 5% 3.3% • Gross profit increased 35.4% year-to-year, while 0% gross margin remained relatively flat, decreasing 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Est. only 80 basis points year-to-year. COGS S&M G&A R&D • Operating margin rose 530 basis point year-to-year, SOURCE: TBR AND ORACLE as Oracle continues to work out a profit-aware model for hardware.6 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 7. Go-to-Market & Product Strategies TBRThe future of BI technology at Oracle combines fully integratedoperations with mobile convenience • Oracle recently held a Business Intelligence (BI) forum to illustrate current market offerings and provide insight as to the future direction of BI development. Tobin Gilman, VP of BI and Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), gave an overview of Oracle’s market placement and developments in the product pipeline. • As Oracle builds out its BI platform, the CRM and ERP offerings anchor to the BI network, allowing for highly integrated processing of data and management of information. The race to a mobile BI system is the focus of development at Oracle. • The 2007 acquisition of Hyperion, a performance management system developer, allowed Oracle to build out its analytical application network, further expanding opportunities within the BI platform and complimentary system expansion. • TBR believes the BI platform and resulting innovations will serve as an outlet for organic growth as the market recognizes a shift in highly integrated complete-system capabilities, and ultimately the opportunities made available via the mobile-processing revolution. HW + SW ServicesProduct Strategies Offerings Offerings Service Strategies• Integrate BI capabilities across the portfolio • Enable, educate and facilitate partner BI delivery of services and solution to drive Finance and Operations Consult customization to end-customers• Invest in new Fusion platforms while Apps sustaining acquired applications platforms • Leverage acquired expertise in• Acquire industry applications to add domain MW applications, middleware and systems Premium architecture to enable successful specialization and access new markets• Leverage integrated hardware and software DB deployments and expansion of Oracle Base footprint in accounts through product releases like the Exadata Support• Drive a profit-aware hardware business to OS • Expand delivery options through On- increase profitability Demand investments Education • Deliver services and support directly to• Expand addressable markets in Servers unstructured data and data warehousing large end-users that require a direct Storage On-demand relationship with Oracle7 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 8. Go-to-Market & Product Strategies TBROracle will sustain the preeminence of Java by investing in thetechnology and its communities and partners Continued support for the Java community is imperative for Oracle to retain its developer community, in addition to gaining new developers in the widely-used language base to add a level of customization • Oracle announced the nomination of SouJava, a Java Users Group in Brazil, as its newest representative on the committee of Java Community Process (JCP) executives. Gaining worldwide Java users will enable Oracle to expand customization of its applications by region to gain better global adoption. • TBR believes the formation of a strong base for the Java development network is the key to creating a pool of developers. The development pool will have the ability to access enterprise-grade capabilities to enhance partner market capitalization. • Oracle extended its partner network to incorporate the Java development network. The Oracle Partner Network (OPN) encompasses the partnerships of silver, gold, platinum and diamond tiered partners which provides levels of differentiation based on participation. • Oracle also provides resources for Java developers, like developer links, blogs, new technologies and downloads, within the Oracle Technology Network. The additional support enables Oracle to sustain its developer pool and attract new members. Oracle 1Q11 Revenue Mix By Segment Indirect Sales Strategies Direct Sales Strategies • Leverage partners to provide sales Services • Target largest accounts directly coverage across a large global 13% $1.15 billion to expand Oracle footprint and base; reuse field enablement, wallet share support and training material • Provide a higher level of Hardware 19% made for the direct sales force services to the top 1,000 $1.66 billion • Support partners with accounts to drive higher development tools, templates, margins and increase customer marketing resources, Applications 21% satisfaction development funds and $1.86 billion • Sustain customer contact and training/certification control of accounts by handling • Manage partners and distributors Databases & Middleware 47% support contract renewals on territories and joint $4.10 billion directly engagements8 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 9. Resource Management Strategy TBRBusiness success across all product lines resulted in Oracle scaling upheadcount during the quarterStrategy TBR• Oracle intends to restructure headcount distribution ORACLE HEADCOUNT BY REGION to increase areas like Sales & Marketing to penetrate 120,000 deeper into top 100 accounts. President Mark Hurd 100,000 22,705 reported an addition of 1,500 sales resources in 23,566 EMEA Tota l Headcount 80,000 1Q11, and indicated more will need to be added to APAC 38,372 39,340 support Oracle’s growth. 60,000• Headcount increased substantially by 1,380 year-to- 40,000 Americas year, as Oracle added headcount across all business 20,000 44,554 45,825 functions to support growth after integrating and 0 reorganizing Sun personnel. 1Q10 1Q11 Ca l endar Quarter SOURCE: ORACLEExecutive Changes Christian Smith was hired as the Vice President of Sales. He was formerly VP of Worldwide Sales, Optimized Services from the acquired company, TBR ORACLE REVENUE BY REGION Art Technology Group (ATG). $10,000Investments $8,000 $1,440 In $ Mi l lions Asia-Pacific• In February, Oracle announced its acquisition of a branch $6,000 $953 $2,815 of nDevr, an Australia-based environmental reporting $2,167 EMEA $4,000 software company. The intellectual property will enable Americas Oracle to create greenhouse gas emission solutions. $2,000 $3,284 $4,509• Oracle completed the acquisition of ATG; the acquisition $0 will fuel Oracle’s ability to target e-commerce customers 1Q10 1Q11 to expand its presence in the retail industry. SOURCE: ORACLE9 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 10. Income Statement TBR ORACLE CORP. Consolidated Statement of Income (i n $ Thous a nds Except Sha re Da ta ) TBR CALENDAR QUARTER 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Est. FISCAL QUARTER F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 Net Sales $ 6,404,000 $ 9,505,000 $ 7,502,000 $ 8,582,000 $ 8,764,000 $ 10,634,000 Cost of Sales 1,419,000 2,242,000 2,062,000 2,157,000 2,012,000 2,620,000 Gross Profit $ 4,985,000 $ 7,263,000 $ 5,440,000 $ 6,425,000 $ 6,752,000 $ 8,014,000 Sales and Marketing 1,241,000 1,745,000 1,333,000 1,530,000 1,618,000 1,989,000 General and Administrative 236,000 293,000 272,000 156,000 286,000 351,000 Research and Development 823,000 1,063,000 1,103,000 1,119,000 1,127,000 1,382,000 Amort. of Intangible Assets 502,000 605,000 603,000 614,000 612,000 610,000 Other Expenses (Acq. & Restruc.) 340,000 257,000 212,000 236,000 122,000 112,000 Operating Income $ 1,843,000 $ 3,300,000 $ 1,917,000 $ 2,770,000 $ 2,987,000 $ 3,570,000 Other, Net (261,000) (225,000) (122,000) (124,000) (188,000) (200,000) EBIT $ 1,582,000 $ 3,075,000 $ 1,795,000 $ 2,646,000 $ 2,799,000 $ 3,370,000 Provision for Income Taxes 393,000 711,000 443,000 776,000 683,000 800,000 Net Income $ 1,189,000 $ 2,364,000 $ 1,352,000 $ 1,870,000 $ 2,116,000 $ 2,570,000 Net Income per Share $ 0.23 $ 0.46 $ 0.27 $ 0.37 $ 0.41 $ 0.50 Shares Outstanding 5,076,000 5,090,000 5,083,000 5,117,000 5,149,000 5,149,000 AS A PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE Net Sales 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Cost of Sales 22.2% 23.6% 27.5% 25.1% 23.0% 24.6% Gross Margin 77.8% 76.4% 72.5% 74.9% 77.0% 75.4% Sales & Marketing 19.4% 18.4% 17.8% 17.8% 18.5% 18.7% General & Administrative 3.7% 3.1% 3.6% 1.8% 3.3% 3.3% SG&A 23.1% 21.4% 21.4% 19.6% 21.7% 22.0% R&D 12.9% 11.2% 14.7% 13.0% 12.9% 13.0% Operating Margin 28.8% 34.7% 25.6% 32.3% 34.1% 33.6% Other, Net -4.1% -2.4% -1.6% -1.4% -2.1% -1.9% EBITD 24.7% 32.4% 23.9% 30.8% 31.9% 31.7% Income Taxes 6.1% 7.5% 5.9% 9.0% 7.8% 7.5% Net Margin 18.6% 24.9% 18.0% 21.8% 24.1% 24.2% YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE Net Sales 17.4% 38.5% 48.4% 46.5% 36.9% 11.9% Cost of Sales 27.7% 90.2% 104.6% 96.8% 41.8% 16.9% Gross Profit 14.8% 27.8% 34.5% 34.9% 35.4% 10.3% Sales and Marketing 17.7% 31.6% 38.9% 35.0% 30.4% 49.2% General and Administrative 22.9% 36.9% 35.3% -14.8% 21.2% 29.0% SG&A 18.5% 32.3% 38.2% 28.1% 28.9% 14.8% R&D 21.6% 45.4% 67.1% 58.1% 36.9% 30.0% Operating Income -5.0% 14.4% 10.2% 27.2% 62.1% 8.2% Other, Net 100.8% 73.1% -31.5% -20.0% -28.0% -11.1% EBITD -12.6% 11.7% 14.9% 30.8% 76.9% 9.6% Income Taxes -18.3% -17.6% 1.1% 37.3% 73.8% 12.5% Net Income -10.5% 25.0% 20.3% 28.3% 78.0% 8.7% SOURCE: ORACLE AND TBR ESTIMATES10 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 11. Balance Sheet TBR ORACLE CORP. Consolidated Balance Sheets (in $ Thousands) TBR CALENDAR QUARTER 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 FISCAL QUARTER F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 ASSETS Current Assets Cash and cash equivalents $ 9,331,000 $ 9,914,000 $ 12,018,000 $ 10,420,000 $ 11,864,000 Marketable securities $ 8,158,000 $ 8,555,000 $ 11,619,000 $ 14,425,000 $ 12,491,000 Accounts Receivable - Net 3,898,000 5,585,000 3,721,000 4,406,000 4,495,000 Deferred Tax Assets 978,000 1,159,000 1,142,000 1,219,000 1,193,000 Other 1,299,000 1,532,000 1,529,000 2,017,000 2,140,000 Total Current Assets 23,979,000 27,004,000 30,264,000 32,723,000 32,459,000 Long-term Cash Investments - - - - - Property, Plant, Equip. (Net of Dep.) 2,869,000 2,763,000 2,835,000 2,870,000 2,894,000 Goodwill and Intangible Assets 30,283,000 29,746,000 30,025,000 29,415,000 29,749,000 Other, Net 2,255,000 2,065,000 2,131,000 2,235,000 2,564,000 Total Assets $ 59,386,000 $ 61,578,000 $ 65,255,000 $ 67,243,000 $ 67,666,000 LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Current Liabilities Short Term Borrowings $ 4,220,000 $ 3,145,000 $ 2,260,000 $ 2,255,000 $ - Accounts Payable $ 616,000 $ 775,000 $ 706,000 $ 762,000 $ 673,000 Income Taxes Payable - - - - - Customer Advances and Unearned Rev. 5,389,000 5,900,000 6,903,000 5,742,000 5,849,000 Other 4,026,000 4,871,000 3,931,000 4,577,000 4,760,000 Total Current Liabilities 14,251,000 14,691,000 13,800,000 13,336,000 11,282,000 Long-term Debt 11,498,000 11,510,000 14,778,000 14,780,000 14,752,000 Long-term Liabilities 1,172,000 1,059,000 1,137,000 1,136,000 3,078,000 Deferred Income Taxes 3,275,000 2,695,000 2,679,000 2,791,000 1,145,000 Deferred Tax Liabilities 339,000 424,000 349,000 350,000 350,000 Total Liabilities 30,535,000 30,379,000 32,743,000 32,393,000 30,607,000 Total Stockholders Equity 28,851,000 31,199,000 32,512,000 34,850,000 37,059,000 Total Liabilities & Equity $ 59,386,000 $ 61,578,000 $ 65,255,000 $ 67,243,000 $ 67,666,000 FINANCIAL RATIOS Day Sales Outstanding 54.8 52.9 44.6 46.2 46.2 Fixed Asset Turnover 10.6 13.5 10.7 12.0 12.2 Days Cash Outstanding 246 175 284 261 250 Total Asset Turnover 0.45 0.63 0.47 0.52 0.52 Debt/Asset Ratio 0.51 0.49 0.50 0.48 0.45 Current Ratio 1.68 1.84 2.19 2.45 2.88 Return on Assets 10.9% 11.1% 10.9% 11.0% 12.0% Return on Equity 21.5% 22.0% 21.6% 21.8% 23.4% Annual Revenue Per Employee $284,053 $293,976 $301,835 $312,357 $261,181 Number of Employees 106,492 104,569 105,236 105,730 107,870 SOURCE: ORACLE AND T BR11 Oracle 1Q11 Initial Response | Software Business Quarterly ©2011 Technology Business Research, Inc.
  • 12. About Us Contact UsTechnology Business Research is a leading independent technology 1.603.929.1166market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and info@tbri.comfinancial analyses of hardware, software, networking equipment, www.tbri.comwireless, portal and professional services vendors. 11 Merrill DriveServing a global clientele, TBR provides timely and accurate market research Hampton, NH 03842and business intelligence in formats that are tailored to clients’ needs. Our USAanalysts are available to further address client-specific issues or informationneeds on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.TBR has been empowering corporate decision makers since 1996.To learn how our analysts can address your unique business needs, pleasevisit our website or contact us today. TBR T E C H N O L O G Y B U S I N E S S R ES E AR C H , I N C .This report is based on information made available to the public by the vendor and other public sources. No representation is made that this information is accurate or complete.Technology Business Research will not be held liable or responsible for any decisions that are made based on this information. This report is not a recommendation to purchasesecurities. This report is copyright-protected and supplied for the sole use of the recipient. Contact Technology Business Research, Inc. for permission to reproduce.

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