845 richard karn


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845 richard karn

  1. 1. “...I’m as mad as Hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.” Richard Karn Managing EditorThe Emerging Trends Report Anchorage, Alaska
  2. 2. “Great Britain’s wholesale price index, expressed as 100 in 1717 was also 100 in 1930 when Great Britain tookthe pound off the gold standard”; by 1977 when Jastrow published The Gold Constant, the index had increasedby more than 2000% in less than 50 years.. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  3. 3. Population Growth: 2.2% GDP Growth: 6.46% CAGR M2/M3 Growth: 7.04% CAGR Public Debt: 9.03% CAGR Purchasing Power: -3.16% or -4.17 CADR>30 changes to the way CPI is calculated, each lowering CPI< COLA + < money paid Social Security benefits, gov’t pensions= > GDP www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  4. 4. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  5. 5. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  6. 6. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  7. 7. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  8. 8. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  9. 9. If Past is Prologue...www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  10. 10.  Putin: “...the parasitic nature of the US dollar...” Wen: “...irresponsible money printing ...” Roessef: “...perverse effects of (US dollar) policy...” www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  11. 11. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  12. 12. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  13. 13. Totalitarian regimes tend toattribute their motives to theirenemies as a way to justify boththeir actions and pre-emptivestrikes. (paraphrased from Arendt, H.: Totalitarianism) www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  14. 14. If you want to ‘save money’: gold & silver bullionIf you want to grow your wealth in a negative realinterest rate environment, you cannot NOTspeculate; but where? Gold and Silver stocks Hard Assets: Energy, Resources & Agriculture Specialty Metal stocks www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  15. 15.  gold will continue to as act like a leveraged inverse short ETF against confidence in central banking and interventionist policies (Grice/Hoye); whether a broad decline in input costs outpacing the decline in the gold price or the price of gold outpacing the increase in input costs, we believe gold mining profits will outperform most if not all other sectors; and, shareholder dividends will attract significant interest because the companies are backed by gold and motivated by profit rather than being paper promises backed by the full faith and credit of a leftist governments and corrupt central banks administering fiat currency regimes. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  16. 16.  fiat currency abuse/corruption long overdue infrastructure restoration and /or expansion in both the USA and EU a) water & wastewater treatment b) Oil & Gas pipelines (400,000 & 270,000 miles respectively), pumping stations, and refineries + shale build-out c) North American Electrical Grid d) 103 nuclear power plants, some dating from the ’60s nature of bureaucracies www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  17. 17. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  18. 18.  Endless pursuit of higher quality, ever more efficient devices at ever lower prices Technology-enabled explosion in material science R&D Unique performance characteristics in tech alloys Limited substitution + trace amounts used = price inelastic Scarcity or byproduct sourcing = supply inelastic Many have dissipative uses but no recycling protocols Specialty metal demand trajectory is discovery-driven and largely independent of GDP (unlike oil, base metals, lumber etc) …cycle back to top and repeat—faster. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  19. 19. HDD Capacity Growth The Great Stabilizer:- 3G and 4G super alloys (Ni, Co, V, W, Mo + Re)- perpendicular bit stacking HDDs- artificial photosynthesis- nano-lattice for targeted drug delivery Note that the vertical axis is logarithmic, so the ‘fit’ to reflect growth in HDD capacity reflects exponential growth.
  20. 20. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  21. 21.  Not easy to invest in: mis- & disinformation Murky pricing: few are traded on an exchange Off-exchange traded metals are unhedgeable Many are by-products and sold forward Pricing is discovery-driven, not GDP-correlated Free Marketeers in denial about Neomercantilist intentions www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  22. 22. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  23. 23. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  24. 24. Sovereign Risk Scarcity No Substitute By-product Dissipative Use antimony (5) beryllium (3) bismuth (3) cobalt (3) fluorspar (2) gallium (3) germanium (3) graphite (3) hafnium (2) indium (3) lithium (2) magnesia (3) manganese (2) molybdenum (2) niobium (4) 6 PGMs (5) 15 REEs (4) rhenium (3) scandium (3) selenium (4) silicon (2) silver (3) tantalum (2) tellurium (4) tin (3) titanium (2) tungsten (3) vanadium (2) zirconium (3) 26
  25. 25. Hageluken, Christian:”Sustainable metals recycling from waste electronics”; South Pacific Regional E-waste Workshop; Brisbane, QLD, 21.07.2010. www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  26. 26.  321m computers sold globally in 2010, 98m in US alone 1.3b cell phones sold globally in 2010; number in use surpasses 5.0b (Gartner) 123,000 computers are discarded every day in the US--19% are recycled 402,000 cell phones are discarded every day in the US--13% are recycled (EPA) 200 g/t Au in PC motherboard scrap; mobile phone scrap: 340 g/t Au, 3500 g/t Ag, 140 g/t Pd, 130 kg Cu (EPA) www.emergingtrendsreport.com
  27. 27. Fiat Currency Abuse History + discovery-driven trend + Free Marketeers vs Neo-mercantilists + resource nationalism/corruption + increasing resource nationalism + increasingly intrusive bureaucracies + EM demand + politically-motivated export restrictions + China fears + WTO + trade wars + deeper mines, more accidents + relentless demand + declining # of qualified personnel + inexpensive valuations + ever more environmental restrictions + few threats under investor control + civil conflicts + project finance improving + power supply disruptions + uniquely varied & stable geology + national/corporate/private stockpiling + low hanging fruit (deposits) long gone AUSTRALIA + exploration venturing farther afield + lack of recycling protocols + relentless demand  gold & Spec Met miners HIGHER RESOURCE PRICES  mid-cap producers (M&A)  proven micro-cap deposits  micro-cap historic mineswww.emergingtrendsreport.com
  28. 28. www.emergingtrendsreport.com