0
IPv6 Adoption …acceleration
§  Alain Fiocco, Sr. Director IPv6 High Impact Project
Sources: IMS Research, Intel, Ericsson, Cisco
Past Internet Growth With IPv4BillionsofInternetDevicesFuture Growth Challen...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
CGN
Carrier Grade NAT: Sharing public I...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Real world Session Statistics
0"
50"
10...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Impact of CGN-NAT on User Experience
We...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
CGN
IPv6 – “Full Spectrum” Internet
IPv...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
The IPv6 business case for Wireline or ...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
NAT44 Session State Growth
…in a Real M...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
The IPv6 business case for Wireline or ...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
The world has changed on June 6th 2012
...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All ...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
The Internet Core is ready !
IPv4 trans...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
~50% Content reachable over IPv6
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
IPv6 Global Deployment To Users
Now Dou...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
IPv6 Users
USA: 4% DE: 4% CH: 10%
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Where are IPv6 users coming from ?
© 20...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Forecasting*
3 years: 15 – 25 %50% poin...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Accelerate IPv6 to end-users
§ Deploym...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
China pushing forward…
19
Huge impact o...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
…So is India
20
Huge impact on B2C in I...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Arriving Now: All-IPv6 Networks and Dat...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Visual Networking Index forecast
22
Dev...
Internet of Things
(age of the device)
Fixed Computing
(you go to the device)
Mobility / BYOD
(the device goes with
you)
1...
IPv6 Unleashes Internet Growth
22B
BillionsofInternetDevices
2012 2014 2016 2018 202020082000 2002 2004 2006 2010
5B6
8
10...
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
Key take away
§ IPv4 is over - NAT444 ...
afiocco@cisco.com
@alainfiocco
@cisco6lab
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco
IOS-XR 4.3
IOS-XE 3.8
StarOS 14.0
NXOS ...
IPv6 Adoption --- Acceleration
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IPv6 Adoption --- Acceleration

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by Alain Fiocco, Cisco

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Transcript of "IPv6 Adoption --- Acceleration"

  1. 1. IPv6 Adoption …acceleration §  Alain Fiocco, Sr. Director IPv6 High Impact Project
  2. 2. Sources: IMS Research, Intel, Ericsson, Cisco Past Internet Growth With IPv4BillionsofInternetDevicesFuture Growth Challenges With IPv4 IPv4 4,000,000,000 PortsTags > Routed IPv4 Addresses
  3. 3. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco CGN Carrier Grade NAT: Sharing public IPv4 addresses IPv4 Private IPv4 Per flow States {SIP@,DIP@,Sp,Dp} End User Experience - Performance Security , Location , Logging Troubleshooting
  4. 4. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Real world Session Statistics 0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" Internet&Home&2& Alex" Max" Alain"home"office" VoD/TV Replay platforms: •  Canalplus : 70 sessions •  Pluzz.fr: 95 sessions •  BBC : 45 sessions •  CNN: 50 Portals/Social •  Facebook: 40 sessions •  Yahoo: 110 sessions •  Bing: 30 •  G+: 30 •  Wikipedia: 50 •  Twitter : 20 Peer to Peer: •  BitTorent: >700
  5. 5. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Impact of CGN-NAT on User Experience Web 2.0 (ex: AJAX) Application Behavior Under Constrained NAT Resources 20 NAT Sessions15 NAT Sessions10 NAT Sessions30 NAT Sessions times millions of users
  6. 6. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco CGN IPv6 – “Full Spectrum” Internet IPv4 NAT IPv6 Bypass CGN Path IPv6 Routing (50+% of content today)
  7. 7. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco The IPv6 business case for Wireline or Cable CGN Bypass 2011 2013 2015 CGN Only 2011 2013 2015 6rd + CGN May, 2012 IDC Study – “The Business Case for Delivering IPv6 Service Now“ http://tinyurl.com/cgn-bypass-business-case!
  8. 8. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco NAT44 Session State Growth …in a Real Mobile Network Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2 X over 8 months. Accelerating with Smartphone penetration => More sophisticated apps => more tcp sessions + keepalive
  9. 9. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco The IPv6 business case for Wireline or Cable Mobile CGN Bypass 2013 2014 2015 2016 IPv4 + NAT44 IPv6 + {IPv4 + NAT44} IPv6 + NAT64 March 2013, IDC Study - “The Business Case for IPv6 in Mobile Networks” http://tinyurl.com/cgn-mobile-bypass-case!
  10. 10. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco The world has changed on June 6th 2012 Users Content Cloud CDN The Network AT&T Verizon Mobile Comcast TWC Free RCS&RDS XS4ALL KDDI Softbank Many to come in 2013 Google Facebook Yahoo Bing Wikipedia Netflix Amazon 1000’s Enterprises Public Agencies Amazon Rackspace OVH Akamai Limelight http://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants > 1.5% > 80% of Core transit 50% conten 13% web sites
  11. 11. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 11 6lab.cisco.com/stats @cisco6lab Gandhi “When a tree falls, we can hear it. When the forest grows, not a sound”
  12. 12. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco The Internet Core is ready ! IPv4 transit AS’s: 9133 IPv6 transit AS’s: 1577* IPv6 enabled AS’s: 3372 Concentrated in TOP 300 (77% of AS’s are IPv6 transit) 25% CAGR
  13. 13. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco ~50% Content reachable over IPv6
  14. 14. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco IPv6 Global Deployment To Users Now Doubling Every 9 months Cisco’s commitment to IPv6 June, 2010 “World IPv6 Day” June, 2011 “World IPv6 Launch” June, 2012 Cisco Live June, 2013 10+ Years of preparation and trial Industry bands together to move to mainstream
  15. 15. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco IPv6 Users USA: 4% DE: 4% CH: 10%
  16. 16. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Where are IPv6 users coming from ? © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17 29% 11% October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013 Source: Google Source: Google 10% 4% October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013 www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements •  10% at KDDI (6rd: by default on every new customer •  20% at Free, (6rd: done a while back, leveraging CPE transition) •  23% at VOO (DS over Docsis 3.0: in three waves of enablement) •  16% at XS4ALL(DS over Docsis 3.0) •  15% at Swisscom (6rd: enabled the bulk in just couple of days !) •  6% at DT (DS over PPP, start in Nov 2012) Source: http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements 6rd: by default on every new subsDual-Stack on 4G/3G: by default on every new subs
  17. 17. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Forecasting* 3 years: 15 – 25 %50% point in 5 years (Logistic S-Curve Model) * Based on past data. Does not include effect of new IPv6-only Internet of Things Architectures, Smartgrid, IPv4 run-out outside of Asia and the EU, etc.
  18. 18. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Accelerate IPv6 to end-users § Deployment of CGN should be transparent –  User information – application impact –  Opt-out opportunity § Internet, End to End requires a “globally routable address/prefix per subscriber” –  Public IPv4 if still available –  IPv6 enable “unencumbered growth” § Country roadmap – IPv6 Capacity building –  Government lead by example 18
  19. 19. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco China pushing forward… 19 Huge impact on B2C in China and B2B for Rest of the world http://www.telecomasia.net/content/chinese-telcos-embark-ipv6-adoption?src=popular The 3 largest SP in China: •  Will have 3M subs each by Dec 2013 •  45% wireline penetration (25M homes) by End 2015 •  All mobile switch to IPv6 by End 2015 !
  20. 20. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco …So is India 20 Huge impact on B2C in India and B2B for Rest of the world
  21. 21. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Arriving Now: All-IPv6 Networks and Data Centers
  22. 22. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Visual Networking Index forecast 22 Devices Projected to be IPv6 capable in 2017: •  73% of smartphones, reaching 2.1 billion •  74% of tablets, reaching 520 million •  79% of laptops, reaching 717 million •  24% of M2M connections, reaching 1.4 billion In 2017, If 50 percent of IPv6-capable devices are actively connected to an IPv6 network, the forecast estimates that globally, IPv6 traffic would amount to •  28.8 exabytes per month •  24 percent of total Internet traffic. http://goo.gl/xxLT
  23. 23. Internet of Things (age of the device) Fixed Computing (you go to the device) Mobility / BYOD (the device goes with you) 1993 2003 2013 500M 10B Source: Cisco IBSG, 2013 IPv4 IPv4 + NAT44 IPv6 Launch Internet of Everything (people, process, data, things) 50+ B IPv6 Everywhere 2023 http://www.cisco.com/web/tomorrow-starts-here/index.html
  24. 24. IPv6 Unleashes Internet Growth 22B BillionsofInternetDevices 2012 2014 2016 2018 202020082000 2002 2004 2006 2010 5B6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 4 2 22 Sources: IMS Research, Intel, Ericsson, Cisco 15B 50+ B 12.5B 25B 15 25 50 Addresses in Global Routing Table “Usable” Global IPv4 Addresses Subtended NATs Address+Port routing More specific routes Routing table growth Shorter IP Leases Camping on bogon space Application Gateways Reviving 240 Shared-SP IPv4 space Routed IPv6 Addresses Future Growth Challenges With IPv4 IPv4 PortsTags 4,000,000,000> Routed IPv4 Addresses
  25. 25. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco Key take away § IPv4 is over - NAT444 is very short term § CGN Deployment should be limited and users informed § IPv6 Technology is mature - Products are ready § The Internet is dual protocol now § IPv6 users growing fast in (large) pockets § Encourage IPv6 on Wired and Wireless subscribers 25
  26. 26. afiocco@cisco.com @alainfiocco @cisco6lab
  27. 27. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Swiss IPv6 Council afiocco IOS-XR 4.3 IOS-XE 3.8 StarOS 14.0 NXOS 6.2 IOS 15.3 IOS-XE 3.8 AnyConnect 3.x (Android, iOS) Windows, MacOS Prime Infra CNR/CAR WLC 7.3 UC 9.0 CUCM 9.0 CUBE/IOS 15.3 Prime Infra ASA 9.1 (incl IPS) ASA-Cx AsyncOS 7.6 Email Webex Mobile Client Webex Meeting EFT All of our devices, applications and services… 100s of IPv6 features Engineering Process changes – Test and Hardening - USGv6 certified Portfolio
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