IPv6 Transition
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IPv6 Transition

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May 13, 2013, Swiss IPv6 Council Member Event.

May 13, 2013, Swiss IPv6 Council Member Event.
The Impact of IPv6 to Net Politics
CGN Killer IPv6
- Why CGN isn't a good concept for the future, but IPv6 is.

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IPv6 Transition IPv6 Transition Presentation Transcript

  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1IPv6 TransitionAlain FioccoSr Director, IPv6 HIPMai 13, 2013
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2ContentUserISPDevice“A deadlock, stalemate, impasse; a roughly equal (frequently unsatisfactory)outcome to a conflict in which there is no clear winner or loser,”Where is the content?Too much pain &no gainWhere is thenetwork?Do I pay less ?Any new apps ?NAT’s are good.RFC1918 gives mesecurity, and IPv4address run-out is myISP’s problem.The network is not ready, usersdon’t care and I don’t want torisk a poor end-user experiencetoday for potential gainstomorrowEnterprise
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 3RIPE ARIN AFRINICLACNICIANAMean while … IPv4 run-out is very realhttp://ipv6.he.net/statistics/APNICLast /8 policy
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 4CGNIPv4Performance ? Resilience ? End User Experience ?Troubleshooting ? Security ? Location ?User Logging/data retention vs too much information ?PrivateIPv4Session States{SIP@,DIP@,Sp,Dp}
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 50"50"100"150"200"250"Internet&Home&2&Alex" Max" Alain"home"office" VoD/TV Replay platforms:•  Canalplus : 70 sessions•  Pluzz.fr: 95 sessions•  BBC : 45 sessions•  CNN: 50Portals/Social•  Facebook: 40 sessions•  Yahoo: 110 sessions•  Bing: 30•  G+: 30•  Wikipedia: 50•  Twitter : 20Peer to Peer:•  BitTorent: >700
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 6Web 2.0 (ex: AJAX) Application Behavior Under Constrained NAT Resources20 NAT Sessions15 NAT Sessions10 NAT Sessions30 NAT Sessions times millions of users
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 72011 2013 2015CGN Only2011 2013 20156rd + CGNMay, 2012 IDC Study – “The Business Case for Delivering IPv6 Service Now“http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns1017/idc_ipv6_economics.pdf
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 8Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebX 2 over 8 months. Accelerating with Smartphone penetration=> More sophisticated apps => more tcp sessions + keepalive
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 92013 2014 2015 2016IPv4 + NAT44IPv6 + IPv4 + NAT44IPv6 + NAT64March 2013, IDC Study - “The Business Case for IPv6 in Mobile Networks”http://goo.gl/J9lZF
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 10CGNIPv4IPv6AAAAAIPv6 for growthIPv4 for legacy (with CGN == a necessary Evil)DNS
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 11Users ContentCloudCDNTheNetworkAT&TVerizon MobileComcastTWCFreeRCS&RDSXS4ALLKDDISoftbankMany to come in 2013GoogleFacebookYahooBingWikipediaNetflixAmazon1000’s EnterprisesPublic AgenciesAmazonRackspaceOVHAkamaiLimelighthttp://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants> 1.3%> 80%>40%
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12Huge impact on B2C in China and B2B for Rest of the worldhttp://www.telecomasia.net/content/chinese-telcos-embark-ipv6-adoption?src=popularThe three largest SP inChina:•  Will have 3M subs each byEnd 2013•  45% wireline penetration(25M homes) by End 2015•  All mobile switch to IPv6 byEnd 2015 !
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 13Huge impact on B2C in India and B2B for Rest of the world
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 14•  Consumer Protection and Information•  Business information and EducationImpact on B2C and B2B•  Guarantee fair access and fair competition•  Security•  Legal obligation•  Privacy vs Law Enforcement•  Create incentive for IPv6 adoption
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15•  Restore Internet end-to-end model:All Broadband Internet subscriber should have atleast ONE Globally Routable Network Address•  Transparency – Consumer education•  User getting their IPv4 connectivity behind a CGN should be informed•  ISP should publish their IPv4 address sharing policy•  Performance Measurement must include CGN impact•  Users connected solely behind a CGN should be able to Opt-out•  IPv6 rollout out should be encouraged:•  Display IPv6 coverage, Similar to: http://map.geo.admin.ch/?topic=nga
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 166lab.cisco.com/statsJim Barksdale,former Netscape CEOBased on data from RIR, routeviews, DNS roots, Alexa, Google, ITU and APnic
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17IPv4 transit AS’s: 8645 IPv6 transit AS’s: 1501*IPv6 enabled AS’s: 3249Concentrated in TOP 300(75% of AS’s are IPv6 transit)22% CAGR
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 18IPv6 transit – IPv6 enabledSE: 88% - 93%NO: 85%- 95%NL: 82% - 92%CH: 79% - 91%DE: 74% – 90%GB: 70% – 86%FR: 66% - 82%USA: 56% - 69%Source: routeview
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 191.  Test AAAA + httpget over IPv6 to top 500 Web sites for 125 countries (per alexa.com)and/or IPv6 shadow test domain (ex: iPv6.domain.com , www6.domain.com.…etc…)2.  Based on their respective rank, apply the corresponding % of traffic they represent(Pareto function above)3.  Sum this up => estimated available IPv6 content for 125 countries+ =>alexa.com
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 20
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 21Now Doubling Every 9 monthsJohn outlines Cisco’scommitment to IPv6“World IPv6 Day”June, 2011“World IPv6 Launch”June, 2012Cisco LiveJune, 201310+ Years of preparation and trialIndustry bands togetherto move to mainstream
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 22•  Romania (9%) and France(6%) have captured lowhanging fruits and are now,growing steady.•  Germany is adding12k DSL user/day•  Switzerland > 3%•  more Countries over 1% :Czech Republic, Belgium,Norway, Ireland, LuxembourgSize of the square = estimated nb of IPv6 usersColor = Percentage of IPv6 subs vs total nb of users
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 23•  3% ~ 200k usersSwisscom (6rd)BREAKING NEWS 400k users have been added over the WE !That should make Switzerland the first country to reach 10%
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 24•  3.9 % ~ 3.8 M usersKDDI (FTTH, Dual-Stack)Softbank (DSL+FTTH, 6rd)•  NTT IPv6 is walled-garden(don’t show up here)
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 25•  5.6% ~ 2.8 M usersFree: 6rdSFR: Dual-stack o PPPoE
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 26•  2.7% ~ 2M usersD-Telekom (Dual-Stack o PPPoE)KDG (DOCSIS IPv6 only + DS Lite)0.2%, 8 months ago+ 12k users/night
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 272.5 % => over 6 M users0.6% 12 months ago
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 28© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1729%11%October2011January2012April2012July2012October2012January2013Source: Google Source: Google10%4%October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2930%15%5%Verizon Wireless IPv6 vs. IPv4 Actual User ActivityDoubling or Tripling every 7 months7 months7 months
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 303 years: 15 – 25 %50% point in 5 years(Logistic S-CurveModel)* Based on past data. Does not include effect of new IPv6-only Internet ofThings Architectures, Smartgrid, IPv4 run-out outside of Asia and the EU, etc.
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 31IPv6End2End RestoredUnlimited ConnectivityGlobal ReachCloud/MSDC•  Scale•  Virtualization•  Automation•  SimplificationMobile Internet•  Scale: 10 Billions•  4G-LTE / VoLTE•  Simplification•  Mobile networksInternet of Things•  Scale: 50 Billions•  Automation-Self Networked•  IoT Protocols are IPv6 onlyIPv4 Exhaust.=>brittle architecturehttp://www.cisco.com/go/vni
  • © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 32Cisco Confidential© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 32afiocco@cisco.com