Purchasing Managers´ Index Services, April 2011
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Purchasing Managers´ Index Services, April 2011: Services PMI climbs to 61.4 in April: the service economy stabilizes at a high level

Purchasing Managers´ Index Services, April 2011: Services PMI climbs to 61.4 in April: the service economy stabilizes at a high level

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Purchasing Managers´ Index Services, April 2011 Purchasing Managers´ Index Services, April 2011 Document Transcript

  • Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 6 May 2011Services PMI climbs to 61.4 in April: the service economystabilizes at a high level• The purchasing managers’ index for service companies (Services PMI) rose marginally from 61.2 in March to 61.4 in April. The index trend over the past few months indicates continued improvement in the economy within the private services sector, albeit at a lower rate.• Of the four component indices, new orders accounted for the largest positive contribution, followed by a modest increase in delivery times. The indices for business activity and employment dropped in April, but remain in the upper part of the growth zone.• The index for planned business activity fell from 70.3 in March to 68.1 – its lowest level since February 2010. Despite companies’ downward revisions in production plans, this index level suggests continued expansion over the next six months albeit at a lower rate.• The index for suppliers intermediate goods prices dropped from 65.7 in March to 65.1 in April. Higher transportation costs due to the high price of oil and the strong Swedish economy will likely contribute to rising price pressure in the private services sector. This index has increased by 4.9 points since April 2010.  75 Purchasing Managers Index - Services 70 65 60 55 50 45 Seasonally Adjusted 40 Original 35 30 okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Next publication of Services PMI: Wednesday June 7, 2011
  • Silf / Swedbanks Purchasing Mangers Index Service Sector, seasonally adjusted Components of PMI - Service Other indicies Forecast Total index Business Delivery New orders Employment Backlog of orders Prices Planned activity times business activity 2005 dec 58.7 61.5 53.1 64.0 51.3 60.3 54.5 70.0 2006 jan 59.3 64.8 53.5 59.9 57.3 60.5 45.9 68.5 feb 59.0 66.0 52.7 58.8 56.9 54.9 48.5 62.7 mar 62.7 70.1 53.9 64.2 59.4 64.2 49.1 65.2 apr 57.4 61.0 53.4 59.9 52.5 52.8 52.5 67.9 maj 60.1 64.1 51.9 63.6 57.3 57.8 53.8 71.7 jun 66.2 72.3 57.2 70.2 60.4 63.1 58.9 69.9 jul 62.9 65.3 59.9 63.4 61.8 61.8 50.6 66.6 aug 64.6 69.3 54.7 66.7 64.9 60.9 54.9 70.0 sep 61.7 68.6 52.5 65.4 55.8 63.0 56.0 66.8 okt 61.2 67.3 55.0 61.9 58.5 55.9 54.6 67.2 nov 63.9 65.4 61.6 63.1 65.7 60.1 55.8 72.8 dec 67.5 71.7 59.8 68.6 68.0 58.8 53.5 75.4 2007 jan 66.5 71.0 61.1 68.2 63.1 63.7 58.2 74.3 feb 63.1 71.1 60.1 63.2 55.9 62.0 60.5 70.7 mar 59.7 60.9 55.2 62.2 58.4 57.3 56.4 69.3 apr 66.4 73.5 60.2 70.1 57.4 65.1 58.4 67.2 maj 60.3 61.1 59.5 61.4 58.3 65.1 59.9 66.6 jun 61.9 62.6 57.0 63.6 63.2 61.5 55.0 63.2 jul 60.0 63.4 61.2 60.7 53.3 60.3 57.6 64.8 aug 56.9 57.7 59.1 55.1 56.9 52.8 58.1 60.9 sep 58.1 59.1 57.2 55.0 63.4 57.2 52.5 62.2 okt 57.1 55.8 56.7 56.2 60.5 53.2 57.2 69.0 nov 60.8 67.0 54.9 61.2 58.2 58.8 61.5 54.6 dec 62.3 66.8 57.0 61.5 63.0 64.9 62.3 60.3 2008 jan 58.1 60.2 52.7 57.2 62.3 56.6 63.7 67.9 feb 56.8 57.6 54.3 59.1 54.0 59.2 61.6 64.8 mar 54.8 54.3 52.7 54.3 58.4 53.1 59.8 72.0 apr 53.0 53.7 49.4 50.1 60.7 53.7 56.5 62.3 maj 60.2 67.6 50.6 56.9 66.4 54.7 56.2 63.9 jun 51.9 56.1 49.4 46.5 58.5 44.9 63.5 63.3 jul 53.0 57.1 45.4 49.0 62.3 45.1 65.5 59.5 aug 50.4 52.7 49.7 45.7 56.7 48.9 57.0 60.6 sep 52.0 56.3 47.6 46.8 60.3 38.8 57.8 56.4 okt 42.4 44.0 45.7 35.0 49.8 44.3 57.9 48.1 nov 43.9 43.9 49.7 37.1 50.1 35.9 53.6 42.7 dec 38.3 37.7 39.8 37.1 39.6 37.2 45.4 40.5 2009 jan 35.6 33.5 42.4 36.0 30.7 28.6 49.1 34.3 feb 38.5 37.7 38.8 36.5 42.9 35.1 47.8 41.5 mar 41.0 44.3 41.8 42.9 32.7 39.7 48.8 37.3 apr 40.4 41.6 39.1 40.5 40.2 39.6 43.1 47.0 maj 40.2 43.3 42.6 43.0 29.0 37.3 40.6 44.1 juni 41.3 43.6 39.8 45.0 33.2 43.2 35.0 51.0 juli 42.4 44.6 38.2 46.9 35.9 42.9 39.3 54.7 aug 45.6 51.0 41.0 50.7 34.6 47.3 45.3 55.6 sep 48.6 52.7 45.6 55.2 35.0 54.3 49.0 58.9 okt 55.0 61.9 47.2 62.3 41.4 62.6 44.9 61.2 nov 51.3 56.6 47.9 56.9 38.6 57.1 44.7 67.6 dec 47.6 52.5 46.8 49.9 38.6 48.7 52.7 61.5 2010 jan 55.5 59.6 50.9 59.7 47.6 56.6 49.1 62.1 feb 61.3 64.4 54.1 68.1 52.6 61.2 46.8 75.9 mar 61.7 65.4 58.7 64.2 55.8 60.9 56.4 72.4 apr 62.7 66.7 61.1 64.9 55.4 61.7 60.8 74.6 maj 58.9 59.4 59.5 60.0 55.7 57.8 62.4 69.1 juni 59.1 61.4 61.8 59.8 52.4 60.4 61.7 68.6 juli 62.8 66.1 61.1 65.6 55.2 63.3 62.3 71.2 aug 63.8 66.0 62.2 67.8 55.9 63.7 61.8 70.3 sep 60.9 59.5 64.4 63.5 54.7 60.2 63.3 73.6 okt 63.7 65.1 61.7 67.2 58.0 61.3 60.2 76.4 nov 64.2 65.0 58.8 67.7 62.3 64.0 65.8 77.9 dec 66.0 69.6 64.5 65.9 62.9 60.9 63.8 77.1 2011 jan 65.9 70.9 61.3 66.5 63.1 65.1 67.6 78.3 feb 62.4 63.0 62.6 61.8 62.2 58.9 69.4 70.2 mar 61.2 64.8 60.8 59.5 60.2 56.3 65.1 70.2 apr 61.4 63.3 60.4 61.9 59.1 58.8 65.7 68.1
  • Silf / Swedbanks Purchasing Mangers Index Service Sector, original Components of PMI - Service Other indicies Forecast Total index Business Delivery New orders Employment Backlog of orders Prices Planned activity times business activity 2005 dec 54.8 57.1 50.8 60.3 46.0 57.9 50.0 65.9 2006 jan 53.7 57.0 50.8 53.9 52.3 54.0 46.9 65.6 feb 57.5 63.8 52.6 57.8 54.3 56.9 49.1 63.2 mar 63.6 72.6 51.2 66.7 59.5 66.7 48.8 65.5 apr 59.6 63.6 52.7 63.6 54.6 55.6 53.6 70.9 may 63.6 69.2 52.9 67.3 60.6 62.5 56.7 76.0 jun 72.3 78.8 61.0 76.8 67.5 68.3 61.0 73.8 jul 58.9 58.1 62.8 55.8 61.6 54.7 52.3 67.4 aug 66.5 71.6 53.4 69.3 68.2 63.6 54.5 69.3 sep 64.0 72.6 53.5 68.6 55.8 64.0 57.0 66.3 okt 60.8 67.0 56.1 61.2 57.1 55.0 53.0 66.0 nov 62.2 64.1 62.0 59.8 64.1 56.5 52.2 69.6 dec 63.6 67.4 57.4 64.9 62.8 56.4 48.9 71.3 2007 jan 60.9 63.3 58.3 62.2 58.2 57.1 59.2 71.4 feb 61.7 68.9 60.0 62.2 53.3 64.0 61.1 71.1 mar 60.7 63.4 52.4 64.6 58.5 59.8 56.1 69.5 apr 68.7 76.2 59.5 73.8 59.5 67.9 59.5 70.2 may 63.8 66.3 60.5 65.1 61.6 69.8 62.8 70.9 jun 68.0 69.0 60.7 70.2 70.2 66.7 57.1 67.1 jul 56.1 56.3 64.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 59.4 65.6 aug 58.8 60.0 57.8 57.8 60.2 55.6 57.8 60.2 sep 60.4 63.1 58.1 58.1 63.4 58.1 53.5 61.6 oct 56.7 55.6 57.8 55.6 59.1 52.2 55.6 67.8 nov 59.1 65.8 55.3 57.9 56.6 55.3 57.9 51.3 dec 58.4 62.5 54.7 57.8 57.8 62.5 57.8 56.3 2008 jan 52.5 52.4 50.0 51.2 57.3 50.0 64.6 65.0 feb 55.3 55.4 54.2 58.1 51.4 61.1 62.2 65.3 mar 55.8 56.8 50.0 56.8 58.6 55.6 59.5 72.2 apr 55.3 56.4 48.7 53.8 62.8 56.4 57.7 65.4 may 63.6 72.7 51.5 60.6 69.7 59.4 59.1 68.2 jun 58.0 62.5 53.1 53.1 65.6 50.0 65.6 67.2 jul 49.0 50.0 48.3 41.4 62.1 37.9 67.2 60.3 aug 52.3 55.0 48.3 48.3 60.0 51.7 56.7 60.0 sep 54.3 60.3 48.5 50.0 60.3 39.7 58.8 55.9 oct 42.0 43.8 46.8 34.4 48.4 43.3 56.3 46.9 nov 42.2 42.6 50.0 33.8 48.5 32.4 50.0 39.4 dec 34.4 33.3 37.5 33.3 34.4 34.8 40.9 36.4 2009 jan 30.0 25.7 39.7 30.0 25.7 22.1 50.0 31.4 feb 37.1 35.5 38.7 35.5 40.3 37.1 48.4 41.9 mar 41.9 46.8 39.1 45.3 32.8 42.2 48.4 37.5 apr 42.7 44.2 38.5 44.2 42.3 42.3 44.2 50.0 may 43.6 48.4 43.5 46.8 32.3 41.9 43.5 48.4 jun 47.3 50.0 43.5 51.6 40.3 48.4 37.1 54.8 jul 38.5 37.5 41.1 39.3 35.7 35.7 41.1 55.6 aug 47.5 53.3 39.7 53.3 37.9 50.0 45.0 55.0 sep 50.9 56.7 46.6 58.3 35.0 55.2 50.0 58.3 oct 54.7 61.7 48.3 61.7 40.0 61.7 43.3 60.0 nov 49.6 55.4 48.2 53.6 37.0 53.6 41.1 64.3 dec 43.7 48.1 44.4 46.2 33.3 46.3 48.1 57.4 2010 jan 49.9 51.9 48.1 53.7 42.6 50.0 50.0 59.3 feb 59.8 62.2 53.9 67.1 50.0 63.2 47.4 76.3 mar 62.7 67.9 56.0 66.7 56.0 63.4 56.1 72.6 apr 65.0 69.4 60.4 68.7 57.5 64.4 61.9 77.6 may 62.3 64.5 60.5 63.7 59.0 62.5 65.3 73.4 jun 65.2 67.9 65.5 66.4 59.5 65.5 63.8 72.4 jul 58.9 59.0 64.0 58.0 55.0 56.1 64.0 72.0 aug 65.8 68.3 60.8 70.5 59.2 66.4 61.5 69.7 sep 63.2 63.5 65.3 66.7 54.8 61.1 64.3 73.0 oct 63.4 64.8 62.8 66.5 56.6 60.4 58.6 75.2 nov 62.5 63.8 59.1 64.4 60.7 60.5 62.2 74.6 dec 62.1 65.3 62.2 62.2 57.7 58.5 59.3 73.0 2011 jan 60.3 63.1 58.6 60.5 58.1 58.5 68.5 75.4 feb 60.9 60.8 62.5 60.8 59.6 60.8 70.0 70.6 mar 62.2 67.3 58.1 61.9 60.3 58.8 64.8 70.4 apr 63.6 66.0 59.7 65.6 61.2 61.5 66.8 71.1 Jörgen Kennemar. Swedbank, Economic Research Department. Phone + 46-8-58597730 Administration. Phone +46-8-5859 7740. Fax +46-5859 3540. e-mail ek.sekr@swedbank.se Sebastian Bergfelt. Silf. Phone +46-73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
  • Silf/Swedbank’sPurchasing Managers’ Index – Services- objectives and methodologyHistory Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S. based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been published since November 1994Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.Compositionof PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35 Business activity (within the company) 25 Employment (within the company) 20 Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20Other leading indicators(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices Planned business activity next six monthsObjective Quick economic indicator Simple statistics Statistics with relatively short publication intervals Constant contact with a well-informed professional groupCalculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by 0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly changes in activity in the service sector.“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis – has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at 50 indicates a target value. We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI – Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background material as well. Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services.