Canadian
Public
Opinion
on

     Climate
Change
and
Climate
Policy
                         Érick
Lachapelle
           Pr...
Per
capita
emissions
from
fuel
combus6on,
2008
United
States
                                                             ...
Carbon
Intensity
Using
Market
Exchange
Rates,
2008
     Canada
                                                           ...
Policy
context
•  U.S.
policy
context
    –  Repudia:on
of
Kyoto
    –  Congressional
stalemate
on
cap‐and‐trade
    –  Ba...
Where
does
the
public
stand?

Na:onal
Survey
of
Canadian
   Public
Opinion
on
Climate
Change
•  In
conjunc:on
with
Na:onal
Survey
of
American
Public
Opi...
Public
understanding
of
global
warming

Solid
evidence
of
warming
global
             temperatures
over
last
40
years?
           “From
what
you’ve
read
and
heard...
Solid
evidence
of
warming
global
   temperatures
over
the
last
40
years?
          84%
         66%
                      ...

A
serious
problem?
In
your
view
is
global
warming
a
very
serious
problem,
somewhat
serious
problem,
not
                 ...
Top
3
reasons
cited
for
belief
in
                        climate
change
                                                 ...
Belief
in
global
warming
by

                           party
iden:fica:on
100%
                             91%
          ...
What
about
«
Climategate
»?
70%
                                   60%
60%
                                              4...
Role
of
respec:ve
government
levels

Views
on
government
roles
         “For
each
level
of
government
please
tell
me
if
it
has
a
great
deal
of
responsibility,
...
Federal
Role
in
Canada
 Percent
sta:ng
“a
great
deal
of
responsibility”
for
addressing
global
warming                     ...
Federal
inac:on
a
reason
to
act?
 Percent
agreeing
to
statement
“If
the
federal
government
fails
to
address
the
issue
of
 ...
Economic
benefits?
 Percent
agreeing
to
statement
“provincial
governments
will
boost
their
economies
by
                   ...
Carbon
pricing?

Support
for
Cap
and
Trade
       There is a proposed system called cap and trade where the government would issue permits ...
Support
for
Cap
and
Trade
in
WCI
        Percent
expressing
support
for
Cap
and
Trade
          56%
          46%
        ...
Cap
and
trade:
at
what
scale?
 “If a cap and trade system was to be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,would you pref...
Cap
and
Trade:
at
what
scale?
         Percent
expressing
preference
for
Cap
and
Trade
at
na:onal
level
          72%
    ...
Carbon Taxation    “Another way to lower GHG emissions would be to increase taxes on carbon based       fuels such as coal...
Support
for
Carbon
Taxes
by
Region
       Percent
expressing
support
for
Carbon
Taxes
         56%
                       ...
Revenue
collec:on
       «
And
which
level
of
government
should
collect
and
use
the
revenue
»?  
60%
                    5...
Revenue
use
“If
the
government
enacted
a
policy
that
required
emiFers
to
pay
for
the
release
of
greenhouse
               ...
Willingness
to
pay
                                                                           
  How
much
would
you
pay
ea...
Lessons
and
Implica:ons
•    Domes:cally,
public
support
for
provincial
ac:ons
taken
at
local
level
      –  Opposi:on
doe...
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Érick Lachapelle Presentation - Continental Divide? Canadian and US Views on Energy and Climate Change February 2011

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Érick Lachapelle, Université de Montréal

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Érick Lachapelle Presentation - Continental Divide? Canadian and US Views on Energy and Climate Change February 2011

  1. 1. Canadian
Public
Opinion
on

 Climate
Change
and
Climate
Policy
 Érick
Lachapelle
 Presenta:on
at
the
Public
Policy
Forum
Breakfast
Con:nental
Divide?
Canadian
and
US
Views
on
Energy
and
Climate
Change
 OFawa
Ontario,
February
23,
2011

  2. 2. Per
capita
emissions
from
fuel
combus6on,
2008
United
States
 19.18
 Canada
 17.27
 Ireland
 10.71
 Finland
 10.36
 Germany
 10.06
 Denmark
 9.91
 Japan
 9.54
New
Zealand
 9.41
Great
Britain
 9.38
 Norway
 8.7
 Austria
 8.59
 Italy
 7.82
 France
 6.48
 Sweden
 6.24
 Switzerland
 6.12
 Mexico
 4.04
 0
 2
 4
 6
 8
 10
 12
 14
 16
 18
 20
 Metric
tonnes
of
CO2
per
person
Source:
EIA

  3. 3. Carbon
Intensity
Using
Market
Exchange
Rates,
2008
 Canada
 0.5
 Mexico
 0.48
United
States
 0.44
New
Zealand
 0.34
 Germany
 0.28
 Japan
 0.26
 Finland
 0.25
 Italy
 0.25
Great
Britain
 0.23
 Ireland
 0.21
 Austria
 0.21
 Denmark
 0.2
 France
 0.19
 Sweden
 0.14
 Norway
 0.13
 Switzerland
 0.11
 0
 0.05
 0.1
 0.15
 0.2
 0.25
 0.3
 0.35
 0.4
 0.45
 0.5
 Metric
tonnes
of
CO2
per
Thousand
Year
2005
USD
Source:
EIA

  4. 4. Policy
context
•  U.S.
policy
context
 –  Repudia:on
of
Kyoto
 –  Congressional
stalemate
on
cap‐and‐trade
 –  Back
to
the
states?
•  Canadian
federal
policy
 –  Early
engagement
followed
by
retreat
 –  Stalled
cap‐and‐trade
and
carbon
taxes
 –  Harmoniza:on
with
U.S.
•  Provincial
policy
in
Canada
 –  Carbon
taxes
 –  Cap
and
trade
 –  Feed
in
tariffs

  5. 5. Where
does
the
public
stand?

  6. 6. Na:onal
Survey
of
Canadian
 Public
Opinion
on
Climate
Change
•  In
conjunc:on
with
Na:onal
Survey
of
American
Public
Opinion
on
Climate
 Change
(NSPOCC)
 –  Christopher
Borick
(Muhlenberg
College)
and
Barry
Rabe
(University
of
Michigan)
•  Applica:on
of
same
instrument
to
Canada
for
cross‐na:onal
comparison
 –  Erick
Lachapelle
(Université
de
Montréal)
•  Canadian
poll
sponsored
by
the
Public
Policy
Forum
and
Sustainable
 Prosperity,
with
addi:onal
support
from
Internat
Energy
Solu:ons
Canada
•  Regionally
stra:fied
random
sample
via
telephone
survey
of
1214
 respondents
•  Fielding
dates:
13
January
to
4
February
2011
•  Margin
of
error
+/‐
2.8%
19
:mes
out
of
20

  7. 7. Public
understanding
of
global
warming

  8. 8. Solid
evidence
of
warming
global
 temperatures
over
last
40
years?
 “From
what
you’ve
read
and
heard,
is
there
solid
evidence
of
warming
global
 temperatures
over
the
last
40
years?
 58%
 U.S.
 26%
 16%
 Yes
 No
 Not
Sure
 80%
Canada
 14%
 6%
 0%
 10%
 20%
 30%
 40%
 50%
 60%
 70%
 80%
 90%

  9. 9. Solid
evidence
of
warming
global
 temperatures
over
the
last
40
years?
 84%
 66%
 66%
 68%
 85%
 78%
 89%
Na:onal
total:

80%
Note:
map
adapted
from
hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

  10. 10. 
A
serious
problem?
In
your
view
is
global
warming
a
very
serious
problem,
somewhat
serious
problem,
not
 too
serious,
or
not
a
problem?
70%
 61%
60%
 57%
50%
40%
 34%
 USA
 30%
30%
 Canada
20%
10%
 5%
 6%
 3%
 2%
 0%
 Very
serious
 Somewhat
serious
 Not
too
serious

 Not
a
problem

  11. 11. Top
3
reasons
cited
for
belief
in
 climate
change
 39%
 USA
 17%
 10%
 Warmer
temps.
Changing
weather
 Mel:ng
glaciers
 Scien:fic
research
 33%
Canada
 13%
 14%
 0%
 5%
 10%
 15%
 20%
 25%
 30%
 35%
 40%
 45%
 «
And
what
is
the
primary
reason
that
has
caused
you
to
believe
that
global
 temperatures
have
been
increasing?
»

  12. 12. Belief
in
global
warming
by

 party
iden:fica:on
100%
 91%
 89%
 90%
 87%
 84%
 81%
 80%
 70%
 64%
 60%
 Yes
 50%
 No

 40%
 Not
Sure
 30%
 28%
 20%
 12%
 10%
 10%
 10%
 10%
 8%
 7%
 6%
 6%
 3%
 3%
 1%
 0%
 Conserva:ve
 Liberal
 NDP
 Bloc
Québecois
 Green
 Undecided
 “If
a
federal
elec:on
were
held
today,
which
poli:cal
party
would
you
probably
 vote
for?”

  13. 13. What
about
«
Climategate
»?
70%
 60%
60%
 49%
50%
 47%
40%
 36%
 Canada
30%
 USA
20%
10%
 4%
 4%
 0%
 Agree
 Disagree
 Not
Sure
«
Scien:sts
are
oversta:ng
evidence
about
global
warming
for
their
own
interests
»

  14. 14. Role
of
respec:ve
government
levels

  15. 15. Views
on
government
roles
 “For
each
level
of
government
please
tell
me
if
it
has
a
great
deal
of
responsibility,
 some
responsibility
or
no
responsibility
for
taking
ac:ons
to
reduce
global
warming”
 29%
 Local
governments
 36%
 30%
 5%
 35%
 A
great
deal
of
responsibility
 State
governments
 37%
 23%
 Some
responsibility
 5%
 No
responsibility
 43%
 Not
Sure
 Federal
government
 30%
 22%
 5%
U.S.
 0%
 5%
 10%
 15%
 20%
 25%
 30%
 35%
 40%
 45%
 50%
 42%
 Local
governments
 42%
 13%
 2%
 52%
 A
great
deal
of
responsibility
 Provincial
governments
 36%
 9%
 Some
responsibility
 2%
 No
responsibility
 65%
 Not
Sure
 Federal
governemnt
 24%
 8%
 3%
Canada
 0%
 10%
 20%
 30%
 40%
 50%
 60%
 70%

  16. 16. Federal
Role
in
Canada
 Percent
sta:ng
“a
great
deal
of
responsibility”
for
addressing
global
warming 
 53%
 73%
 62%
 50%
 68%
 66%
 61%
Na:onal
total:

80%
Note:
map
adapted
from
hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

  17. 17. Federal
inac:on
a
reason
to
act?
 Percent
agreeing
to
statement
“If
the
federal
government
fails
to
address
the
issue
of
 climate
change
it
is
my
province’s
responsibility…”
 81%
 69%
 61%
 64%
 73%
 61%
 79%
Na:onal
total:

80%
Note:
map
adapted
from
hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

  18. 18. Economic
benefits?
 Percent
agreeing
to
statement
“provincial
governments
will
boost
their
economies
by
 requiring
greater
use
of
renewable
energy”
 70%
 70%
 68%
 78%
 77%
 68%
 77%
 78%
 85%
 74%
 85%
 74%
 76%
 76%
Na:onal
total:
76%
Na:onal
total:

80%
Note:
map
adapted
from
hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

  19. 19. Carbon
pricing?

  20. 20. Support
for
Cap
and
Trade
 There is a proposed system called cap and trade where the government would issue permits limiting the amount of greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that did not use all their permits could sell them to other companies. The idea is that many companies would find ways to put out less GHG because that would be cheaper than buying permits. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system
 80%
 74%
 70%
 59%
 60%
 49%
 50%
 39%
 For
 40%
 36%
 Against
 30%
 18%
 Not
Sure
 20%
 13%
 10%
 5%
 7%
 0%
 Cap
&
Trade
 C&T
$15/mt
 C&T
$50/mt
USA
 70%
 63%
 58%
 58%
 60%
 50%
 38%
 40%
 34%
 For
 33%
 30%
 Against
 20%
 Not
Sure
 10%
 7%
 4%
 4%
 0%
 Cap
&
Trade
 C&T
$15/mt
 C&T
$50/mt
Canada

  21. 21. Support
for
Cap
and
Trade
in
WCI
 Percent
expressing
support
for
Cap
and
Trade
 56%
 46%
 62%
 52%
 67%
 57%
 55%
Na:onal
total:

80%
Note:
map
adapted
from
hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

  22. 22. Cap
and
trade:
at
what
scale?
 “If a cap and trade system was to be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,would you prefer it to be done at the national level, within a region of the country or only within an individual state?”

90%
80%
 77%
 73%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
 11%
 12%
 10%
10%
 8%
 6%
 2%
 0%
 USA
 Canada
 Na:onal
 Regional
 State/province
only
 Not
Sure

  23. 23. Cap
and
Trade:
at
what
scale?
 Percent
expressing
preference
for
Cap
and
Trade
at
na:onal
level
 72%
 57%
 60%
 69%
 82%
 73%
 74%
Na:onal
total:

80%
Note:
map
adapted
from
hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

  24. 24. Carbon Taxation “Another way to lower GHG emissions would be to increase taxes on carbon based fuels such as coal, oil, gasoline and natural gas. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system?”
 90%
 80%
 80%
 70%
 62%
 63%
 60%
 50%
 For
 40%
 32%
 Against
 30%
 Not
sure
 22%
 20%
 15%
 10%
 6%
 5%
 5%
 0%
USA
 Carbon
Tax
 C.Tax
$15/mt
 C.Tax
$50/mt
 70%
 60%
 60%
 57%
 51%
 50%
 45%
 41%
 40%
 36%
 For
 30%
 Against
 20%
 Not
sure
 10%
 4%
 4%
 2%
 0%
 Carbon
Tax
 C.Tax
$15/mt
 C.Tax
$50/mt
Canada

  25. 25. Support
for
Carbon
Taxes
by
Region
 Percent
expressing
support
for
Carbon
Taxes
 56%
 38%
 61%
 57%
 34%
 50%
 48%
Na:onal
total:

80%
Note:
map
adapted
from
hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

  26. 26. Revenue
collec:on
 «
And
which
level
of
government
should
collect
and
use
the
revenue
»? 
60%
 50%
50%
40%
 39%
 35%
 35%
30%
 USA
 Canada
 23%
20%
 14%
10%
 3%
 1%
 0%
 Federal
 Provincial/State
 Not
sure
 Refused

  27. 27. Revenue
use
“If
the
government
enacted
a
policy
that
required
emiFers
to
pay
for
the
release
of
greenhouse
 gases,
where
do
you
prefer
the
money
generated
be
spent?
60%
 51%
50%
 43%
40%
30%
 USA
 Canada
20%
 15%
 15%
 14%
 8%
 7%
 9%
 10%
10%
 7%
 7%
 6%
 4%
 4%
 0%
 Alterna:ve
Energy
 Tax
Rebates
 Payroll
tax
cuts
 Deficit
reduc:on
 Dont
do
it
 Sustain
exis:ng
 Not
sure
 R&D
 programs

  28. 28. Willingness
to
pay
 
 How
much
would
you
pay
each
year
for
more
renewable
energy
to
be
produced? USA
(2008)
 USA
(2010)
 Canada
$0
 22%
 41%
 21%
$1‐49
 16%
 26%
 28%
$50‐99
 17%
 17%
 19%
$100‐249
 13%
 7%
 13%
$250‐499
 10%
 4%
 6%
$500
or
more
 7%
 2%
 7%
Not
sure
 15%
 4%
 5%
Refused
 1%
 0%
 1%

  29. 29. Lessons
and
Implica:ons
•  Domes:cally,
public
support
for
provincial
ac:ons
taken
at
local
level
 –  Opposi:on
does
not
seem
to
increase
with
experience

 –  Can
be
“good
poli:cs”
•  Broad
public
support
for
renewable
energy
and
R&D
may
provide
“framing”
 –  Where
money
goes
and
how
it’s
spent
may
have
trac:on
moving
forward
on
carbon
pricing
•  Gap
between
what
public
expects
from
Federal
level,
and
current
government
 policy
in
both
Canada
and
the
U.S.
•  Currently
lower
support
in
US
for
aggressive
climate
policy
 –  Not
all
bad
news,
public
opinion
is
vola:le
•  Public
support
will
be
key
to
implemen:ng
climate
policy
–
a
beFer
understanding
 of
factors
underlying
support
(economic
condi:ons,
personal
observa:ons
of
 climate,
ideology)
can
help
to
iden:fy
windows
of
opportunity
for
policy
change

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