Érick Lachapelle, Université de Montréal

1. Canadian Public Opinion on
Climate Change and Climate Policy
Érick Lachapelle
Presenta:on at the Public Policy Forum Breakfast
Con:nental Divide? Canadian and US Views on Energy and Climate Change
OFawa Ontario, February 23, 2011

2. Per capita emissions from fuel combus6on, 2008
United States 19.18
Canada 17.27
Ireland 10.71
Finland 10.36
Germany 10.06
Denmark 9.91
Japan 9.54
New Zealand 9.41
Great Britain 9.38
Norway 8.7
Austria 8.59
Italy 7.82
France 6.48
Sweden 6.24
Switzerland 6.12
Mexico 4.04
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Metric tonnes of CO2 per person
Source: EIA

3. Carbon Intensity Using Market Exchange Rates, 2008
Canada 0.5
Mexico 0.48
United States 0.44
New Zealand 0.34
Germany 0.28
Japan 0.26
Finland 0.25
Italy 0.25
Great Britain 0.23
Ireland 0.21
Austria 0.21
Denmark 0.2
France 0.19
Sweden 0.14
Norway 0.13
Switzerland 0.11
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
Metric tonnes of CO2 per Thousand Year 2005 USD
Source: EIA

4. Policy context
• U.S. policy context
– Repudia:on of Kyoto
– Congressional stalemate on cap‐and‐trade
– Back to the states?
• Canadian federal policy
– Early engagement followed by retreat
– Stalled cap‐and‐trade and carbon taxes
– Harmoniza:on with U.S.
• Provincial policy in Canada
– Carbon taxes
– Cap and trade
– Feed in tariffs

5. Where does the public stand?

6. Na:onal Survey of Canadian
Public Opinion on Climate Change
• In conjunc:on with Na:onal Survey of American Public Opinion on Climate
Change (NSPOCC)
– Christopher Borick (Muhlenberg College) and Barry Rabe (University of Michigan)
• Applica:on of same instrument to Canada for cross‐na:onal comparison
– Erick Lachapelle (Université de Montréal)
• Canadian poll sponsored by the Public Policy Forum and Sustainable
Prosperity, with addi:onal support from Internat Energy Solu:ons Canada
• Regionally stra:fied random sample via telephone survey of 1214
respondents
• Fielding dates: 13 January to 4 February 2011
• Margin of error +/‐ 2.8% 19 :mes out of 20

7. Public understanding of global warming

8. Solid evidence of warming global
temperatures over last 40 years?
“From what you’ve read and heard, is there solid evidence of warming global
temperatures over the last 40 years?
58%
U.S. 26%
16%
Yes
No
Not Sure
80%
Canada 14%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

9. Solid evidence of warming global
temperatures over the last 40 years?
84% 66%
66%
68%
85%
78%
89%
Na:onal total:
80%
Note: map adapted from hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

10. A serious problem?
In your view is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious problem, not
too serious, or not a problem?
70%
61%
60% 57%
50%
40%
34%
USA
30%
30% Canada
20%
10%
5% 6%
3% 2%
0%
Very serious Somewhat serious Not too serious Not a problem

11. Top 3 reasons cited for belief in
climate change
39%
USA 17%
10%
Warmer temps. Changing weather
Mel:ng glaciers
Scien:fic research
33%
Canada 13%
14%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
« And what is the primary reason that has caused you to believe that global
temperatures have been increasing? »

12. Belief in global warming by
party iden:fica:on
100%
91%
89%
90% 87%
84%
81%
80%
70%
64%
60%
Yes
50%
No
40% Not Sure
30% 28%
20%
12%
10% 10% 10%
10% 8% 7%
6% 6%
3% 3%
1%
0%
Conserva:ve Liberal NDP Bloc Québecois Green Undecided
“If a federal elec:on were held today, which poli:cal party would you probably
vote for?”

13. What about « Climategate »?
70%
60%
60%
49%
50% 47%
40%
36%
Canada
30% USA
20%
10%
4% 4%
0%
Agree Disagree Not Sure
« Scien:sts are oversta:ng evidence about global warming for their own interests »

14. Role of respec:ve government levels

15. Views on government roles
“For each level of government please tell me if it has a great deal of responsibility,
some responsibility or no responsibility for taking ac:ons to reduce global warming”
29%
Local governments 36%
30%
5%
35% A great deal of responsibility
State governments 37%
23% Some responsibility
5%
No responsibility
43% Not Sure
Federal government 30%
22%
5%
U.S.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
42%
Local governments 42%
13%
2%
52% A great deal of responsibility
Provincial governments 36%
9% Some responsibility
2%
No responsibility
65% Not Sure
Federal governemnt 24%
8%
3%
Canada
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

16. Federal Role in Canada
Percent sta:ng “a great deal of responsibility” for addressing global warming
53%
73% 62%
50% 68%
66%
61%
Na:onal total:
80%
Note: map adapted from hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

17. Federal inac:on a reason to act?
Percent agreeing to statement “If the federal government fails to address the issue of
climate change it is my province’s responsibility…”
81%
69%
61%
64%
73% 61%
79%
Na:onal total:
80%
Note: map adapted from hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

18. Economic benefits?
Percent agreeing to statement “provincial governments will boost their economies by
requiring greater use of renewable energy”
70%
70% 68% 78% 77%
68% 77%
78% 85%
74% 85%
74% 76%
76%
Na:onal total:
76%
Na:onal total:
80%
Note: map adapted from hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

19. Carbon pricing?

20. Support for Cap and Trade
There is a proposed system called cap and trade where the government would issue permits limiting the amount of
greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that did not use all their permits could sell them to other companies.
The idea is that many companies would find ways to put out less GHG because that would be cheaper than buying permits.
Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system
80% 74%
70%
59%
60%
49%
50%
39% For
40% 36%
Against
30%
18% Not Sure
20% 13%
10% 5% 7%
0%
Cap & Trade C&T $15/mt C&T $50/mt
USA
70%
63%
58% 58%
60%
50%
38%
40% 34% For
33%
30% Against
20% Not Sure
10% 7%
4% 4%
0%
Cap & Trade C&T $15/mt C&T $50/mt
Canada

21. Support for Cap and Trade in WCI
Percent expressing support for Cap and Trade
56% 46% 62%
52% 67%
57%
55%
Na:onal total:
80%
Note: map adapted from hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

22. Cap and trade: at what scale?
“If a cap and trade system was to be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
would you prefer it to be done at the national level, within a region of the country
or only within an individual state?”
90%
80% 77%
73%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
11% 12%
10%
10% 8%
6%
2%
0%
USA Canada
Na:onal Regional State/province only Not Sure

23. Cap and Trade: at what scale?
Percent expressing preference for Cap and Trade at na:onal level
72% 57% 60%
69% 82%
73%
74%
Na:onal total:
80%
Note: map adapted from hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

24. Carbon Taxation
“Another way to lower GHG emissions would be to increase taxes on carbon based
fuels such as coal, oil, gasoline and natural gas. Would you strongly support,
somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system?”
90%
80%
80%
70% 62% 63%
60%
50% For
40% 32% Against
30% Not sure
22%
20% 15%
10% 6% 5% 5%
0%
USA Carbon Tax C.Tax $15/mt C.Tax $50/mt
70%
60%
60% 57%
51%
50% 45%
41%
40% 36% For
30% Against
20% Not sure
10% 4% 4% 2%
0%
Carbon Tax C.Tax $15/mt C.Tax $50/mt
Canada

25. Support for Carbon Taxes by Region
Percent expressing support for Carbon Taxes
56%
38% 61%
57%
34% 50%
48%
Na:onal total:
80%
Note: map adapted from hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

26. Revenue collec:on
« And which level of government should collect and use the revenue »?
60%
50%
50%
40% 39%
35% 35%
30% USA
Canada
23%
20%
14%
10%
3%
1%
0%
Federal Provincial/State Not sure Refused

27. Revenue use
“If the government enacted a policy that required emiFers to pay for the release of greenhouse
gases, where do you prefer the money generated be spent?
60%
51%
50%
43%
40%
30%
USA
Canada
20%
15% 15% 14%
8% 7% 9% 10%
10% 7% 7%
6%
4% 4%
0%
Alterna:ve Energy Tax Rebates Payroll tax cuts Deficit reduc:on Don't do it Sustain exis:ng Not sure
R&D programs

28. Willingness to pay
How much would you pay each year for more renewable energy to be produced?
USA (2008) USA (2010) Canada
$0 22% 41% 21%
$1‐49 16% 26% 28%
$50‐99 17% 17% 19%
$100‐249 13% 7% 13%
$250‐499 10% 4% 6%
$500 or more 7% 2% 7%
Not sure 15% 4% 5%
Refused 1% 0% 1%

29. Lessons and Implica:ons
• Domes:cally, public support for provincial ac:ons taken at local level
– Opposi:on does not seem to increase with experience
– Can be “good poli:cs”
• Broad public support for renewable energy and R&D may provide “framing”
– Where money goes and how it’s spent may have trac:on moving forward on carbon pricing
• Gap between what public expects from Federal level, and current government
policy in both Canada and the U.S.
• Currently lower support in US for aggressive climate policy
– Not all bad news, public opinion is vola:le
• Public support will be key to implemen:ng climate policy – a beFer understanding
of factors underlying support (economic condi:ons, personal observa:ons of
climate, ideology) can help to iden:fy windows of opportunity for policy change