Delivering Sustainable Affordable Homes Vivian Rosser Sustainable Construction Oxford 18 November 2009
“ sustainability” in its widest sense
impacts on delivery of housing
what’s actually being delivered
new development economics
the impact of sustainability targets
Impacts on housing delivery….
credit / tighter lending criteria
falling values and land values
fewer sellers / purchasers
Unemployment / repossessions
anticipated public spending cuts
affordability / demand
loss of house building capacity and skills
some RSLs & Developers out of the game
falls in new starts & completions
some large schemes stalled
fewer buyers, less confidence
… this is fundamental, not a correction
and the result of this is…
government target of 240,000 homes a year by 2016
75,570 housing starts 12 months to June 2009
affordable completions projected 61,500 in 2010
affordable starts 2010 29,900 of which only 14,500 social rent
… .for the three years to 2011, the affordable housebuilding target was 156,000, but looks like only 116,000 will be achieved
… only c 80,000 starts 2009 (DCLG)
The picture in Oxfordshire...2008/2009 Oxfordshire County Council: 997 273 1,270 1,569 359 1,928 Cherwell District Council 160 63 223 167 50 217 Oxford City Council 218 113 331 398 217 615 South Oxfordshire District Council 107 25 132 128 39 167 Vale of White Horse District Council 318 31 349 515 5 520 West Oxfordshire 194 41 235 361 48 409 LA Area Private RSL ALL Private RSL All STARTS COMPLETIONS
So what makes projects “sustainable” now?
… risk management and due diligence were focused on legals, and project quality and delivery – but now must be acutely about:
marketability - is there a demonstrated local market?
saleability - are mortgages going to be available?
quality of customer base - are the right customers for the products you are offering available in the local market?
… its not a financial model exercise about what “works” for the economics of the site and then who the client needs to be to fit – to be sustainable, its what is the client range, what can they afford, and work it back from there into your model…
Development economics have changed…
lower end sales values (market sale and shared ownership)
standing stock still to sell
tighter funding criteria for developers
lack of confidence
… .means land values have fallen and landowners are not bringing land forward for development, which has impacted affordable housing delivery (S106)
and on top of all that…
… will the new sustainability requirements impact further on development economics and further restrict supply?
The Code for Sustainable Homes…
… is an environmental assessment method for rating and certifying the performance of new homes . The mandatory items are targets around: