Transition management yokohama


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My presentation for the LCS-Rnet and ISAP conference in Yokohama on the need to open up the low carbon agenda, develop more transformative science and new tools

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  • (Mitigation in Urban areas and Solutions for Innovative Cities)
  • Transition management yokohama

    1. 1. Transition Management for Sustainability and the role of cities Dr. Derk Loorbach LCSRnet, Yokohama, 22-07-2013
    2. 2. DRIFT • Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, Rotterdam with 18 employees • Established 2004 as part of the national transition research program KSI • Action research institute; (international) fundamental and applied research, consultancy, academic/postgraduate education • STRN: 600+ members globally
    4. 4. Persistent unsustainability • Current socio-economic systems are inherently unsustainable – Economically, ecologically and socially • Incremental improvement is not enough and CO2 is only one of the problems – Sub-optimization might make things worse • Current crises are symptoms of non-linear systemic shifts happening – We need to consider these as windows of opportunity for major change towards sustainability
    5. 5. Symptoms of destabilisation
    6. 6. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Transitions Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental change ofLong-term (one or two generations) fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systemstructure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)system – culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives (sharedcollective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared orientation), paradigmsorientation), paradigms – structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure,physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesinstitutions, rules, regulations, collective routines – practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation  Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and socio-Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and socio- economic systemseconomic systems  Paradigm to analyse and influence complex societal changeParadigm to analyse and influence complex societal change
    7. 7. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Transition levels Macro-level: landscape autonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes Meso-level: regime Dominant structure, culture and practices Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actors Based on Geels and Kemp, 2001
    8. 8. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Transition phases predevelopment tipping phase reconfiguration stabilisation Based on Rotmans et al, 2001 Sustainable Society? enhanced lock-in decline Time
    9. 9. Japanese energy transition? Regime: High energy consumption Cheap prices Nuclear and imported fossil Landscape Climate change/policies Resouce issues Demography Economic change Niches: alt. Technologies, new practices and regulations (feed-in), new business ?
    10. 10. Sustainability and Transitions • Transitions are rare but common processes and most likely do not automatically lead to sustainability • Sustainability itself is inherently ambiguous, contested and uncertain • It is about the process of sustainable development rather than the end goal
    12. 12. Transition governance principles • long-termlong-term thinking as the basis for short term policythinking as the basis for short term policy • thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain),thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor),different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)different levels (multi-level) • learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)and ‘doing-by-learning’) • orient governance towards system innovation besidesorient governance towards system innovation besides system improvementsystem improvement • keeping options open, exploring multiple pathwayskeeping options open, exploring multiple pathways • selective participation focusing on frontrunnersselective participation focusing on frontrunners
    13. 13. Transition Governance Framework Monitoring, evaluating and learning Institutional and structural changes, new networks/ coalitions Breakthrough actions, projects and initiatives, new organisations Problem structuring, shared sense of urgency, guiding visions
    14. 14. Transitions… Are not… •Manageable •Makeable •Engineerable •Predictable Can be… •Anticipated •Influenced •Guided •Accelerated
    15. 15. society Transition arenasRegular arenas - Short term - Peloton - Incremental change - Problem- and goal oriented - Long term - Frontrunners - System-innovation - Problem- and goal searching Transition arenas
    16. 16. Transition Management Framework Monitoring, evaluating and learning Developing images coalitions and transition- agendas Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments establishment of transition arenas, shared problem definitions and visions
    17. 17. Transition Networks Transition Experiments Transition Arena Phase III Framing the transition Phase IV Envisioning a sustainable city Phase V Reconnecting long term & short term Phase VI Going into action Transition Team Phase I Setting the scene Phase II Exploring dynamics Phase VII Engaging & anchoring
    18. 18. Tools SCENE patterns actor analysis problem analysis TRANSCE reflexive monitoring monitoring framework trans. indicators MLP DBU Deepening, broadening, upscaling transitioning actor selection expert-arena system analysis arena agendaexperiments evaluation TM multiple participatory tools
    20. 20. Aberdeen Ghent Montreuil Rotterdam Ludwigsburg Mitigation in Urban Areas, Solutions for Innovative Cities 5 local governments search for pathways to a low carbon future Supported by two knowledge institutions: CRP Henri Tudor (LUX), DRIFT (NL)
    21. 21. • Ghent, great place to live • Locally creating added value • Energetic city, intelligent cycles • Ghentenaar home in the city Transition arena Ghent (Belgium)
    22. 22. 20 cultural organizations > 100.000 visitors Transition University Ghent Research biogas from biodegr. Mobility arena 938 mobbers Support for SMEs Climate arena Ghent (Belgium) Inspiration to political parties CWG Urban Farming CWG Energy Efficiency in business CWG Valorisation waste water and biodegradables CWG Art Sector KWG mobiliteit CWG consumer pusher market KWG UGent Assessment of potential for ESCO’s CEIP meets GMS
    23. 23. OUTLOOK
    24. 24. New dynamics – new agenda • Structural changes taking place requiring new strategies • Scientific: understanding tipping points, selection, institutional change, … • Societal: mobilising critical mass, destabilising unsustainable regimes, building new institutions
    25. 25. Transition governance principles (acceleration) • Coordination accelerating transition dynamics • Guiding build-up towards sustainability • ‘Controlled’ break-down • Safe-guarding diversity and flexibility • Dealing with/anticipating resistance and barriers • Leading roles for transformative business, policy, research citizens, networks
    26. 26. Tools TM 2.0 tipping point ethics transition potential community engagement communiciation & discourse financing (e.g. joint purchase) empowerment coalition building business cases cost-benefit system analysis arena agendaexperiments evaluation TM power analysis institutionalization power strategy social movement
    27. 27. The need for global transition governance • Current progress is insufficient to meet global goals – Institutional and technological approaches do not deliver the space and guidance for acceleration • There is a need for more progressive, socio-economic and frontrunner oriented governance strategies – There are many positive initiatives and solutions but they do not scale up • The transition framework helps to enable research and governance for transitions but requires new roles – Challenge is always to adapt TM to context, this requires skill, knowledge and competence
    28. 28. Transition in roles Transition Management
    29. 29. Thank you for your attention For more information and publications: