Transition management agendasetting IST13


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My talk at the Transitions Conference IST2013 on the lock-in of the transitions network. transition mnagement 2.0 and killing your darlings

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Transition management agendasetting IST13

  1. 1. Transition management past and future Dr. Derk Loorbach IST Zurich, 21-06-2013
  2. 2. What is transition management? • Way to think about and act upon agency in transitions • Governance theory and framework • Operationalized method and set of systemic instruments
  3. 3. 2000-2010
  4. 4. Policy sciences Sustainable Development Complexity theory Sociology Technology studies 1980 s 2000 Modeling Multi-level Multi fase TM Climate research Onzerkerh. Klimaat modellen Scene IA structuratie management SCOT Transitie Niche CTA History Innovation studies 1990 s Multi-level Multi-fase Uncertainty. CAS Scaling Climate models 3P governance IA Structuration Management SCOT Transition Niche CTA Uncertainty Transition Management
  5. 5. TM 1.0 Monitoring, evaluating and learning Developing images coalitions and transition- agendas Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments Problem structuring, establishment of the transition arena and envisioning society Transition arenaRegular policy arena - Short term - Peloton - Incremental change - Problem- and goal oriented - Long term - Frontrunners - System-innovation - Problem- and goal searching Predevelopment-based: Creating space Problem structuring/envisioning Experimentation Toolls/instruments
  6. 6. Theoretical evolution (1) • Complex systems perspective on transition dynamics (De Haan & Rotmans 2011, De Haan 2010, Loorbach et al. 2012, Loorbach and Frantzeskaki 2012, Frantzeskaki & De Haan 2009,) • Integrated sustainability assessment (Grosskurth & Rotmans 2005, Rotmans 2006, Rotmans et al. 2008) • TM in relation to sustainability governance and policy design (Frantzeskaki et al. 2012a, Loorbach et al 2011, Avelino 2009) • Participatory methods for transition management (Van den Bosch & Rotmans 2008, Wittmayer et al. 2009, Sondeijker 2009, Van den Bosch 2010, Frantzeskaki et al 2012c, Roorda et al. 2012, Taanman et al. 2012) • Urban innovation processes (Loorbach 2009, Frantzeskaki et al. 2012b, Wittmayer et al. 2012, Roorda et al. 2012, Roorda 2012, Van Steenbergen et al. 2012, Lodder & Krosse 2012)
  7. 7. Theoretical evolution (2) • Analyses of sectoral transitions: energy (Loorbach & Verbong 2012), mobility (Zijlstra & Avelino 2012, Avelino et al. 2012), health care (Van Raak & De Haan forthcoming), water (Van der Brugge 2009, Frantzeskaki 2011), and infrasystems (Frantzeskaki & Loorbach 2010) • Grassroots innovations, social movements, social economy and self- organisation (Avelino & Kunze 2009, Wittmayer 2011, Avelino et al. 2012) • Transitions in relation to socio-ecological resilience and biodiversity (Van der Brugge & Van Raak 2007, Van der Brugge 2009, Westley et al. 2011, Frantzeskaki 2011) • Power, politics, discourse and other critical engagements with transition studies (Jhagroe 2011, Avelino 2011, Jhagroe & Wijsman 2011, Eshuis, et al. 2012, Van Steenbergen & Wittmayer 2012, Wittmayer 2012, Jhagroe & Frantzeskaki 2012) • Transition perspectives on the economic crisis (Lijnis Huffenreuter 2012) and the role of business (Wijsman & Loorbach 2012)
  8. 8. Tools TM 1.0 SCENE patterns actor analysis problem analysis TRANSCE reflexive monitoring monitoring framework trans. indicators MLP DBU Deepening, broadening, upscaling transitioning actor selection expert-arena system analysis arena agendaexperiments evaluation TM multiple participatory tools
  9. 9. 2010-2020
  10. 10. 20 culturele organisaties > 100.000 bezoekers Transitie UGent 38.000 studenten 7.100 staf Onderzoek biogas uit GFT Mobiliteitsarena 938 mobbers Begeleidingstraject KMO’s KLIMAAT- ARENA Inspiratie partijprogramma’s Klimaatwerkgroep stadslandbouw KWG EE in bedrijven KWG valorisatie rioolwater en GFT KWG Kunstsector KWG mobiliteit KWG consument duwt markt Onderzoek ESCO’s (in opstart) CEIP meets GMS
  11. 11. Transition Networks Transition Experiments Transition Arena Phase III Framing the transition Phase IV Envisioning a sustainable city Phase V Reconnecting long term & short term Phase VI Going into action Transition Team Phase I Setting the scene Phase II Exploring dynamics Phase VII Engaging & anchoring
  12. 12. Diversity Emergence Discourse Conflicts Pathways Lock-in First movers Diversity Emergence Discourse Conflicts Pathways Lock-in First movers Boundary shifting & reconnecting Storylines shifting and new emerge Spawning & Multiplying Dampening Legitimacy Inclusivity Diversity Scalability Speed of change Justice Time Glocal Legitimacy Inclusivity Diversity Scalability Speed of change Justice Time Glocal Predevelopment selection zone Acceleration
  13. 13. Tools TM 2.0 tipping point ethics transition potential community engagement communiciation & discourse financing (e.g. joint purchase) empowerment coalition building business cases cost-benefit system analysis arena agendaexperiments evaluation TM power analysis institutionalization power strategy social movement
  14. 14. What’s going on? predevelopment take-off acceleration stabilisation Based on Rotmans et al, 2001 System breakdown Lock-in Some argue we are here But perhaps we’re here… Or here …?
  15. 15. Transition lock-in? • Transition field established, dominated by socio-technical regime • Different ‘schools’ hardly interact/exchange/cocreate • We are stuck in optimising the established regime • Lack of strategy to really impact science, policy and society together
  16. 16. Escaping the lock-in • Celebrate the diversity, make intellectual tensions explicit and use them • Kill our darlings: no more multiplying MLP, TIS, TM, SNM • Strategize – Global database of transition experiments/social innovation – Face up to external (science/policy) regimes and destabilize – Create global transition network based on existing hubs – New themes: socio-economic domain, transition in science, policy transition, … – Our mission: a world in transition?
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