RIF Verco - Developing the evidence base

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Presented by Daniel Archard, this presentation explains the development of an evidence base for a renewable infrastructure framework.

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RIF Verco - Developing the evidence base

  1. 1. Developing the renewable energy evidence base Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard Presented to: Renewables Infrastructure Framework workshop Date: 05/07/2012p. 1 Energy and carbon advisory services www.vercoglobal.com
  2. 2. Evidence base underpins everything (targets, planning policies, Framework)• What is your local renewable energy resource?• How has it been estimated?• What is the current contribution?• Are your targets achievable? Which technologies? What deployment opportunities?• Are existing policies supporting the right technologies in the right way?• Do all relevant players understand their role and the available opportunities?p.2 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  3. 3. Key principles in developing a good baseline 1. Follow Government’s standardised methodology 2. Use best available and reference-able data sources 3. Test the evidence base - consult on approach and data sources (and fill data gaps) 4. Presenting the evidence base - consult on findings & how to present findings in most useful way 5. Communicate widely to all stakeholders Has to stand up to scrutiny e.g. planning inspector at EiPp.3 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  4. 4. Renewable energy assessment • Stages for developing a comprehensive evidence base for renewable energy potentialp.4 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  5. 5. Key elements of the baseline data• Baseline energy demand & projected future demand• Mapping growth areas• Mapping existing renewables infrastructure• Renewables resource assessment• CHP & DH resource assessment (heat mapping)p.5 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  6. 6. Installed renewable energy in East of England Installed renewable energy in the East of England 400 350 300 250 PV Municipal and Industrial Waste Hydro 200 Wind Sewage gas 150 Landfill gas Dedicated biomass 100 50 0 Essex Hertforshire Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Norfolk Suffolkp.6 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  7. 7. Calculating the technical potential• Use current evidence base wherever possible and identify gaps that need to be filledTechnologies include:• Biomass & EfW• Wind – GIS mapping of locations where turbines could be located• Solar (PV and SWH) - number of buildings where panels could be located• Heat pumps• Hydro• Modelling trajectory of new building development to assess microgen growth• GIS mapping of all outputsp.7 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  8. 8. Access to available data is keyGIS data• OS MasterMap• OS Address Points• OS 50k Rasters• Conservation Areas• Common land• LLPG• SHLAA sites & allocated employment land• Waste data• Valuation Office Agency (VAO)• Dwelling Stock Data from ONS• DUKES/ energy consumption datap.8 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  9. 9. Estimate of technical potential across all technologies Renewable energy technical potential compared to Cambridgeshires energy demand PV Wind Heat generation Biomass Heat demand EfW Electricity Landfill gas generation SWH 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 GWhp.9 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  10. 10. Modelling renewable energy deployment potential Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind) Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6% DECC - high DECC - high Energy price DECC - low DECC - high high energy high energy [1] energy prices energy prices prices prices current rates current rates (FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI designed to designed to give fixed give fixed return & will return & will Financial lower than adjust to adjust to incentives current tariff energy energy (FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices) Project deployment rate (wind/biomas 30% (0% for s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind) Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High Highp.10 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  11. 11. Clearly documented, organised, referenced analysisp.11 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  12. 12. Producing a relevant & useful evidence base• Communicating the renewable potential: – installed capacity (MW) – Generation potential (MWh) – CO2 savings – % energy demand – Infrastructure – Geographical resolution• Other influencing factors: – off gas areas: high potential for renewable heat (space, economics & carbon savings) – district heating networks viable in higher density urban areas (identify areas over this minimum threshold)p.12 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  13. 13. Producing a relevant & useful evidence base• Where does the resource lie? – which technologies, which locations?• Who has control over delivery? – In which assets, buildings & land does the resource lie? – by developing the resource ‘bottom-up’, the delivery pathways can be identified & quantified – how much of the deployable resource is under control of public sector, suitable for community groups, commercial delivery?p.13 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  14. 14. Example output – off gas areasp.14 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  15. 15. Example output – heat mapp.15 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  16. 16. Renewable energy deployment potential for Cambridgeshirep.16 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  17. 17. Substantial infrastructure is needed Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenariop.17 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  18. 18. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions 18 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  19. 19. CRIF delivery pathways Deployment potential by pathway 1600 1400 Deployment potential (GWh) Wind >=6 turbines 1200 Wind <=5 turbines 1000 Biomass 800 ASHP 600 GSHP 400 SWH 200 PV 0 Public sector Community Commercialp.19 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  20. 20. What does the evidence base tell you?• Investment potential - e.g. £6 Billion potential in Cambridgeshire• Scale of infrastructure -• Resource potential – identifies which technologies have the potential. – Why focus investment on the lower potential, less cost effective technologies for your area?• Common platform of information enables investment planning and key delivery partners to come togetherp.20 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  21. 21. Developing the renewable energy evidence base Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard Presented to: Renewables Infrastructure Framework event Date: 05/07/2012p.21 Energy and carbon advisory services www.vercoglobal.com

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