Sunshine Coast
                     Sept 09 Quarterly Report
                                      October 2009




      ...
Introduction

Introduction


 •       The purpose of this report is to provide a relevant, timely and concise report for
 ...
Introduction

Data Sources


 •      This report uses a number of data sources – dates in brackets refer to the date of
  ...
Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

Australia Consumer Confidence - Year to October 09




              ...
Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

Aus. Domestic Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09)




           ...
Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

Queensland Overnight Holiday - Source Markets

•       Total holiday
...
Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

Australian Outbound (YE August 09)

    •     Australians travelling ...
Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

Australian Inbound (YE August 09)

    •     Inbound has been impacte...
Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

Inbound Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09)




                 ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Regional Spending

    •     Sunshine Coast spending has
          softe...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Regional Spending – Share of Queensland

    •     The Sunshine Coast’s share of
      ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Inbound (YE June 09)




                                               ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Inbound - Market Share Key Markets

   •     The top four
         sourc...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Destination Areas - Inbound Visitors

  •     Inbound to
        Mooroochy
        and ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Caloundra - Inbound Visitors (number)

   •     Caloundra has
         a relatively
   ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Maroochy - Inbound Visitors (number)

   •     Maroochy as
         well has been
     ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Noosa - Inbound Visitors (number)

   •     Noosa holding
         up well in the
     ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Cooloola - Inbound Visitors (number)

   •     Other than
         New Zealand,
       ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight (YE June 09)




                                    ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight - Market Share Key Markets

 •        Share of the
  ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Destination Areas - Domestic Overnight Visitors

  •     Caloundra is
        softening...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Caloundra - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

  •     Caloundra
        numbers are
 ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Maroochydore - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

  •     Interstate
        numbers a...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Noosa - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

  •     Noosa visitor
        numbers from
...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Cooloola - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

  •     Cooloola
        visitor
       ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Visitors earning Household Income of $150K +

  •     In the domestic ma...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Day Trips (YE June 09)




                                             ...
Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Destination Areas - Day Trip Visitors

  •     All four
        Destinations
        ar...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09)




  •     The Sunshine Coast Preference is up fr...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

    Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09) - Key Source Markets

•       In terms of key
...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

    Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09)

•     Preference for Noosa is
      stabilisi...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Gold Coast Preference




    •     The Gold Coast ‘s Preference has steadied – share is ...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Sunshine Coast – Positioning Profile

•     This charts the                              ...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Australia – Sunshine Coast Preference / Core Segments

     •        Preference is fallin...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Why did Preference Fall ? (findings from market research)*

•        Congestion on the Br...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Why did Preference Fall ?

•       A major reason is “we just want to go somewhere differ...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Why did Preference Fall ?
•       There isn’t so much for the kids to do :-
    •    “Sin...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Why did Preference Fall ?
•       It can be expensive :-
    •    “I thought the restaura...
Section 3 : Consumer Preference

What would encourage you to Holiday on the Sunshine Coast ?

•       Provide a better und...
Section 4 : Business Performance

Sunshine Coast Accommodation




                                                       ...
Section 4 : Business Performance

Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a)

•       Caloundra is
        growing strongly.

•  ...
Section 4 : Business Performance

Destination Areas - Share of Queensland Takings (% p.a)

  •     Caloundra,
        Noos...
Section 4 : Business Performance

Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a)

•       Gold Coast is also
        slowing –
      ...
Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast

Economic Outlook


                                              F      ...
Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast

Economic Outlook – Key Source States

•      For the core source
       ...
Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast

Sunshine Coast Visitor Forecasts                           Source : EMDA...
Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast

Sunshine Coast Accommodation Sector Forecasts

 •        With better vis...
Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast

Accommodation Forecasts (SC and Destination Area)

  •     Now, only
   ...
Section 6: Summary

Summary

•    The external environment has become much more positive than it was in late 2008 /
     e...
Section 6: Summary

Summary

•    The depth of the loss of Preference for many, means they are unlikely to return. Such
  ...
Disclaimer

            While every effort has been made to ensure
            accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA h...
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Sunshine Coast Tourism Reseach Sept 2009

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This is a presentation of the latest tourism research on the Sunshine Coast in Queensland Australia.

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Sunshine Coast Tourism Reseach Sept 2009

  1. 1. Sunshine Coast Sept 09 Quarterly Report October 2009 Pacific Tower 737 Burwood Road Hawthorn Melbourne 3122 Tel : 61 03 98300612 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 1
  2. 2. Introduction Introduction • The purpose of this report is to provide a relevant, timely and concise report for the Industry Operators and other Stakeholders. • • • • • • • 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 2
  3. 3. Introduction Data Sources • This report uses a number of data sources – dates in brackets refer to the date of the latest data. • • • • • • • 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 3
  4. 4. Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends Australia Consumer Confidence - Year to October 09 Source : RMR Confidence Data • Consumer (and Business) Confidence has turned around very quickly, now the 2nd Great Depression didn’t arrive ! . • Consumer Confidence is now at the boom level of 2006/07. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 4
  5. 5. Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends Aus. Domestic Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09) Visitors (‘000) - LHS Market Share (%) - RHS Source : NVS • Domestic Overnight travel has suffered with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Since March 08, when the crisis started to hit Australia, the market has fallen 10%. • Queensland has not been immune with visitor numbers falling as well. Market share has recovered after the fall since March 08. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 5
  6. 6. Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends Queensland Overnight Holiday - Source Markets • Total holiday travel to Queensland down 4.2%. • Big variance though from each Region. • NSW and Victoria as source markets has been weak. • Queensland has held up and this is a favourable trend for the Sunshine Coast. Source : NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 6
  7. 7. Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends Australian Outbound (YE August 09) • Australians travelling overseas, in terms of growth, is starting to grow again, although the growth is subdued. • Travel to Indonesia (Bali) is still growing spectacularly, and travel to New Zealand is starting to increase as well. Source : ABS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 7
  8. 8. Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends Australian Inbound (YE August 09) • Inbound has been impacted by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). • Even Brits are still visiting less as their economy suffers. • The New Zealand market is weak, although showing a glimmer of recovery . The US market hardly Source : ABS recovered from the Iraq war, terrorism attacks and SARS, and is now struggling again under the weight of the weak economy. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 8
  9. 9. Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends Inbound Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09) Source : IVS • Total inbound visitors to Queensland has fallen 10% since the start of the GFC. • Queensland has also been losing market share. Over the last 10 years there has been an erosion of market share. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 9
  10. 10. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Sunshine Coast Regional Spending • Sunshine Coast spending has softened with the slowdown. • Domestic Overnight spending has weakened, after strong growth. • Inbound spending has turned the corner and is now growing again. • Day trip spending is also falling. Source : IVS/NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 10
  11. 11. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Regional Spending – Share of Queensland • The Sunshine Coast’s share of spending is falling, after a strong result from 2006 to 2008. • Share of overnight spending has softened from the peak, while inbound is improving. • Share of day trip spending is lower. Source : IVS/NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 11
  12. 12. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Sunshine Coast Inbound (YE June 09) Source : IVS • Although inbound visitor numbers to the Coast are softening, the Sunshine Coast is gaining share of Queensland Inbound visitors. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 12
  13. 13. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Sunshine Coast Inbound - Market Share Key Markets • The top four source markets for the Coast are reviewed. • The Sunshine Coast is gaining share of the UK and German market. • Share of the NZ market falling. Source : IVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 13
  14. 14. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Destination Areas - Inbound Visitors • Inbound to Mooroochy and Cooloola have been trending up. • Noosa Inbound is steady. • Caloundra weaker after strong growth. Source : IVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 14
  15. 15. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Caloundra - Inbound Visitors (number) • Caloundra has a relatively smaller unbound component. • The New Zealand numbers are down – along with the market. Source : IVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 15
  16. 16. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Maroochy - Inbound Visitors (number) • Maroochy as well has been losing New Zealand patronage. • Other markets look quite good. Source : IVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 16
  17. 17. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Noosa - Inbound Visitors (number) • Noosa holding up well in the UK, Germany and Other Europe. • New Zealand numbers are well down. Source : IVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 17
  18. 18. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Cooloola - Inbound Visitors (number) • Other than New Zealand, international visitors numbers is strong. Source : IVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 18
  19. 19. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight (YE June 09) Source : NVS • Overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast have been softening, share as well is down since Dec. 05. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 19
  20. 20. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight - Market Share Key Markets • Share of the Queensland Domestic overnight market is steady, whereas share from the NSW / Vic markets is softening in the last quarter. • Share of SA/WA shows improvement. Source : NVS Note : Share of Qld overnight domestic trips 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 20
  21. 21. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Destination Areas - Domestic Overnight Visitors • Caloundra is softening. • Maroochy is also softening. • Noosa steady and so to is Cooloola. Source : NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 21
  22. 22. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Caloundra - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000) • Caloundra numbers are holding quite well, although a little softening from the Queensland market. Source : NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 22
  23. 23. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Maroochydore - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000) • Interstate numbers are holding up OK. • Main fall has been with the Queenslanders over the last year. Source : NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 23
  24. 24. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Noosa - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000) • Noosa visitor numbers from interstate are weaker. • Queensland holding up well. Source : NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 24
  25. 25. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Cooloola - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000) • Cooloola visitor numbers reasonably steady over the last year. Source : NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 25
  26. 26. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Sunshine Coast Visitors earning Household Income of $150K + • In the domestic market, the Coast has attracted a higher proportion of the $150K+ Household Income market – they have been driving the spending growth. • But over the last six months, numbers have started to drop as the GFC impacted, plus softening Preference. Source : NVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 26
  27. 27. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Sunshine Coast Day Trips (YE June 09) Source : NVS • More day trippers are coming to the Sunshine Coast , but they are spending less in total, ie yield per person is falling. • Sunshine Coast gaining share of Queensland day trippers. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 27
  28. 28. Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends Destination Areas - Day Trip Visitors • All four Destinations areas are growing day trips. Data unavailable Source : IVS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 28
  29. 29. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09) • The Sunshine Coast Preference is up from the 2007 trough , but share is still soft. Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 29
  30. 30. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09) - Key Source Markets • In terms of key markets, Preference is well down in Sydney. Sydney (‘000) In fact, Preference is down 34% from the peak in 2003. Melbourne (‘000) • Brisbane Preference has started to soften. • Preference from Melbourne is growing again. Brisbane (‘000) Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 30
  31. 31. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09) • Preference for Noosa is stabilising, Caloundra as well. • The Hinterland Caloundra (‘000) Maroochydore/ Preference is growing Mooloolaba (‘000) while Preference for Maroochydore/ Moolooaba is softening. Noosa (‘000) Maleny, Montville,other Gympie, Hervey Bay, Hinterland (‘000) Maryborough (‘000) 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 31
  32. 32. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Gold Coast Preference • The Gold Coast ‘s Preference has steadied – share is trending up over the last 12-18 months. Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 32
  33. 33. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Sunshine Coast – Positioning Profile • This charts the EMDA Consumer Positioning Map TM alignment of a EMDA Lifestyle Segmentation Sunshine Coast Preferrers Base :Australia destination (in this case 70 the Sunshine Coast) Affluent Families (8%) Affluent Empty with Lifestyle 60 Nesters (6%) Segments. 12% 8% 50 Affluent Golden Age • Personal Income ($’000) For example, while Affluent Couples (3%) Lifestylers (1%) Affluent Families are Singles (7%) Battler Families 3% (12%) 1% 40 8% of the population, Mid Income Empty 6% Nesters (10%) they account for 11% of Saving Couples 15% Struggling SC Preference – that is 30 (2%) 11% Retirees (5%) this segment has a Spend it All Surviving Families Singles (10%) 3% 5% higher propensity to 20 (8%) Surviving Empty want to holiday on the 9% 8% Nesters (10%) Grey Survivors (11%) Coast. 10 Students (8%) 8% 7% 5% • Sunshine Coast is 0 more aligned with the 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Average Age (years) family and more Source : Roy Morgan Single Source June 09 (3 year average) C EMDA 2003 affluent segments. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 33
  34. 34. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Australia – Sunshine Coast Preference / Core Segments • Preference is falling amongst the core family segments. • Amongst the Affluent Empty Nesters, Preference is still holding up. (‘000) (‘000) (‘000) 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 34
  35. 35. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Why did Preference Fall ? (findings from market research)* • Congestion on the Bruce Highway is a barrier - especially for Brisbane people : - • “The last time we went there we sat in a queue for 2 hours just to get home. That was it. Its one of those we went for a wedding and we had to come home on the Sunday and we just sat there and thought never again.” • “Sometimes it can hit hard, times where you get literally get caught in the middle of it and you just think Oh God I’m stuck” “2 night weekends aren’t worth it, but the time you leave work on Friday and cope with the traffic, its just not worth it” • “Don’t even talk to me about it! Yes, that is what is really deterring us at the moment, Its just not worth it going up unless you leave really late, because otherwise you hit the traffic and you just get there and have to come home again. Its becoming a terrible problem, you can sit in traffic for over an hour just on the freeway. Its like going down the Gold Coast 10 years ago” • “Heading north is horrible at the moment. Coming back is equally as bad. We went up to Coolum to see the in laws last weekend and it took us over 2 hours just sitting in traffic from just this side of Caloundra through to home. Stop and start, there’s road works and I know it will improve in time, but we think we cant be bothered fighting the traffic, we think we’ll go the other way.” • Given that the No. 1 motivation (as identified in the TSC visitor surveys) is relax and rejuvenate and that this motivation is increasing in importance, clearly traffic congestion will be a significant turn-off. * 24 in-depth interviews amongst “lapsed” Preferrers, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 35
  36. 36. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Why did Preference Fall ? • A major reason is “we just want to go somewhere different” :- • “We sort of still like it, but now we’re about to go to NZ so we’re doing something different apart from somewhere where we would normally go. We’re not disliking the Sunshine Coast but we’re choosing to go elsewhere.” • “We’ll go bushwalking in the National Park and choose it over the coast because we’ve done the coast so many times.” • “Only because we haven’t been to the Gold Coast as much as we have to the Sunshine Coast. We’re not disenchanted with the Sunshine Coast. It’s just that there’s so many beautiful places on the Gold Coast as well” • “Well we’ve been there, done that. We go there for day trips, so for holidays we’ve never been to the Great barrier reef before. We leave on Friday to go to the Whitsundays. There’s just so much in Queensland. Ill still go to the Sunshine Coast if I have a day off, and as a choice Ill choose the Sunshine Coast over the Gold Coast any day.” • For some – particularly from Brisbane the area is becoming overdeveloped and crowded :- • “Its getting too commercial and too crowded” • “I mean its still very pretty and nice, but if you’re wanting something nice and relaxing its not necessarily the place to go. It depends what time of the year as well.” • “We’d never go at Easter or times like that, we hate crowds” • “The beach (Noosa) is wall to wall people around you” 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 36
  37. 37. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Why did Preference Fall ? • There isn’t so much for the kids to do :- • “Since we’ve had the kids we go to the Gold Coast, I don’t think there’s much to do there with the kids. (8+10). Gold Coast there’s always something to do with all the theme parks there it’s a bit more exciting than the Sunshine Coast.” • “As far as the kids are concerned, they’re teenagers now and there’s no attraction on the Sunshine Coast now, they love the theme parks.” • Overseas is an attractive option :- • “We’ll be heading overseas. Aussie dollar at the moment is too good to pass up. I’ve just gotten back from Vegas, next I wouldn’t mind New York or Europe..” • “Overseas with the bargains that are around at the moment. Everything overseas is so cheap. Hawaii, NZ” • The climate has started to impact :- • “I think it might be warm, but you do hear about all the wild weather, cyclonic type weather, so I’d be concerned to go at the right time of the year.” • “To tell you the truth its been pretty consistent. Ill be honest, we’ve had consistent rain up on the Sunshine Coast, whereas on the Gold Coast it’s pretty good” “We went up there one January and just got rain and we won’t be going back” • “Its been hot in Brisbane so going somewhere cool is appealing, like Tasmania Stanthorpe is very elevated place so it’s a lot cooler. “ “Ill go at a different time of the year. Its hot now even.” • “We also want the change from a hot holiday to a cooler one. We want to change to cooler places and vineyards, we’d like to see Tassy, we haven’t seen Tassy. Its like going to a different climate really, sitting by the fire romantic in the freezing cold. Something different.” 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 37
  38. 38. Section 3 : Consumer Preference Why did Preference Fall ? • It can be expensive :- • “I thought the restaurants were just too expensive even. Drop the prices a bit more for tourists. They’re too dear.” “I found the surf clubs restaurants were more expensive than the Gold Coast” • “But all we had to do was look at shops or eat and eat and it’s really expensive” • “We went up to Noosa. We never really liked Noosa. We had lunch at the surf club. It’s a boutique environment its way too expensive.” • Some had experienced disappointing holidays :- • “We live on the beaches down here though, it was nice but not too good, and the weather didn’t help when we went. It was Jan. and rained most of the time we were there! We thought you’d go to the Sunshine Coast for sunshine, well we got rain! It was very, very disappointing.” • “They’ve got to have a few more things you can go and have a look at. Like to do when the weather isn’t good.” “I’m very disappointed with the Sunshine Coast. No 1 they need some places to go and look at, maybe even a theme park” • Note : The TSC Visitor survey quantifies that 1.6% of visitors are either very dissatisfied or dissatisfied – this equates to 48,000 overnight visitors annually. • See little advertising about the Sunshine Coast, therefore interest isn’t prompted :- • “there are other places you hear more about. You don’t hear about the Sunshine Coast area” • “You see the advertisements for the Gold Coast and theme parks, you never see any for the Sunshine Coast.. I’m not knocking it completely, but you never see much advertising for it.” • “They don’t advertise anything up there. We’ve just been to Melbourne and Melbourne’s always on the telly and things like that, or Vic. We had a lovely time down there, lots to do. They advertise Melbourne Vic, NZ but nothing on the Sunshine Coast. Besides the Australian zoo on the way there.” 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 38
  39. 39. Section 3 : Consumer Preference What would encourage you to Holiday on the Sunshine Coast ? • Provide a better understanding of what is available :- • “Probably if we knew a bit more about what was up there for the kids. To be honest I hardly know what’s up there to do like I do with the Gold Coast. What would we do on our busy days. Like we have one day out then one day beachy, so what would we do on our busy day? We always think of it like that” • “I constantly see ads for Gold Coast. I’ve never seen any ads for Noosa or anything like that, and certainly not kid wise.” • “I don’t know much about the Sunshine Coast If I knew more about it I might consider it.” • Cater more for kids activities :- • “It might be nice for me and my husband I think but not so much for the kids. We could relax and laid back, but the kids would always ask what they can do.” • “ If you’re comparing the sunshine coast and the Gold Coast, to me the only difference is the theme parks. As far as the kids are concerned, they’re teenagers now and there’s no attraction on the Sunshine Coast now, they love the theme parks.” • Provide an all inclusive holiday :- • “Somewhere that’s all inclusive for the price. Sunshine Coast is far away and you’re looking at air fares. “ • “We are looking ay Fiji, with it’s all inclusive fares , that way you know what you are up for”. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 39
  40. 40. Section 4 : Business Performance Sunshine Coast Accommodation Source : ABS • Economic woes, issues raised in the Preference decline report are a drag on accommodation takings growth on the Sunshine Coast. • Market share is though better, after the slump of Dec. 09. Other areas even more impacted (ie Cairns, Gold Coast Conventions market). Includes establishments with 5 or more rooms. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 40
  41. 41. Section 4 : Business Performance Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a) • Caloundra is growing strongly. • Noosa and Cooloola recovering. • Rate of decline slowing in Maroochy. Maroochy NZ’s market has declined 19% from June 2007. Note : March 09/June 09 data modelled from ABS destination area data. The modelling component represents 5% of the total recorded turnover Source : ABS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 41
  42. 42. Section 4 : Business Performance Destination Areas - Share of Queensland Takings (% p.a) • Caloundra, Noosa and Cooloola are gaining share. • Maroochy ‘s share still weakening. Source : ABS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 42
  43. 43. Section 4 : Business Performance Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a) • Gold Coast is also slowing – Conventions have been hard hit. • Byron Bay is was growing again. • The accommodation sector in Cairns is really suffering – with takings down nearly 8%. • Whitsundays suffering as well. Source : ABS 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 43
  44. 44. Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast Economic Outlook F F Source : ABS / EMDA • The Global Financial Crisis is impacting on the Australian economy, but the worst is behind us. • Both Australian GDP and Private Consumption are expected to recover. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 44
  45. 45. Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast Economic Outlook – Key Source States • For the core source States, the outlook is much better. F • All are expected to recover, although NSW is forecast to lag behind a little as it Qld has since 2000. NSW VIC Source : ABS/ EMDA 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 45
  46. 46. Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Visitor Forecasts Source : EMDA F F Domestic (LHS) Total Domestic and International (LHS) Inbound (RHS) Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.87) • With some recovery over 2010, the NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC outlook is better in terms of visitor Outlook, $A exchange Rate numbers. Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.91) • Inbound is still forecast to be more QLD, NSW, Vic Private impacted than Domestic overnight. Consumption., RMR Preference 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 46
  47. 47. Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Accommodation Sector Forecasts • With better visitor number forecasts, the accommodation sector is F forecast to grow +1.0% by June 2010. ($’000) Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.87) NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC Outlook, $A exchange Rate Source : EMDA Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.87) QLD, NSW, Vic Private Note : ABS Base Establishments with 5 or more rooms Consumption., RMR Preference 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 47
  48. 48. Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast Accommodation Forecasts (SC and Destination Area) • Now, only Maroochy is F F expected to be soft in the year Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.89) to June 2010. Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.85) QLD, NSW Private Consumption. QLD, NSW, Private Consumption., RMR Preference RMR Preference • Outlook for Caloundra, Noosa and Cooloola all look better in 2010. F Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.92) Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.79) QLD, NSW, Vic Private Consumption., QLD, NSW, Inbound Forecasts Inbound Forecasts, RMR Preference Source : EMDA 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 48
  49. 49. Section 6: Summary Summary • The external environment has become much more positive than it was in late 2008 / early 2009. Holiday demand from Queenslanders has held up well and this has been a plus for the Sunshine Coast. • Total tourism spending on the Coast is softening under the weight of the GFC, but share of overnight domestic spending is steady and Inbound spending share is growing again. • The Sunshine Coast has been growing share of the International market, with the New Zealand market being the only real problem area. • On the domestic front, Visitor numbers are lower and so is market share, although the softening is mainly in the interstate markets. The stable Queensland source market has benefited the Sunshine Coast. • Preference for the Sunshine Coast continues to be soft. A number of factors have been identified that contribute to this including , the Bruce Highway, insufficient advertising weight in the Sydney and Melbourne, consumers wanting a change, climate, losing appeal to the kids, consumers looking for more packages and crowding at peak times. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 49
  50. 50. Section 6: Summary Summary • The depth of the loss of Preference for many, means they are unlikely to return. Such factors as the desire to visit elsewhere “we just want to go somewhere else for a change, we have been so many times” and strong dissatisfaction with their last holiday , are unlikely to be reversed. This means in turn, that more effort will need to made to attract first time Preferrers – ie new people to the Sunshine Coast. • Accommodation takings are recovering and the Sunshine Coast is regaining some share and its relative lack of exposure to the International market and business travel pays dividends. • The outlook is now better than it was six months ago and the outlook for the accommodation sector and the Coast also looks better. This assumes that the factors impacting Preference don’t intensify. 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 50
  51. 51. Disclaimer While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or decisions based on this information. Ownership of all Intellectual Property (modelling methods, EMDA Positioning Maps resides with EMDA). 30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 51

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