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Vacancies continue to rise at marked pace, candidate availability falls further

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Vacancies continue to rise at marked pace, Candidate availability falls further

Vacancies continue to rise at marked pace, Candidate availability falls further

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  • 1. UK Labour Market 8th October 2013 The most up-to-date source of monthly UK labour market data and analysis Report on Jobs 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Temp/Contract Billings Permanent Placements Increasing rate of decline Increasing rate of growth 50 = no change on previous month Staff Appointments via Recruitment Consultancies Staff appointments continue to rise strongly in September Commenting on the latest survey results, Bernard Brown, Partner and Head of Business Services at KPMG, said: “With another month of data showcasing a strong rise in the number of appointments and job offers on the table, it seems that business is warming to calls for investment from Mark Carney. Improved market conditions, higher activity levels amongst clients and generally stronger levels of confidence amongst employers are certainly one of the major factors underpinning the latest rise in placements. “Only last week the Bank of England argued that recovery will only be sustainable over the long term if regions beyond London grow strongly. Against this backdrop it is also welcome news to see permanent placements increase across the whole country. The North is showing strongest growth, with the Midlands driving a rise in temporary placements. It’s a sign that local economies are picking up and gives hope that economic recovery is not dependent on one area or sector. “Yet it remains worrying that employees are clearly still not sharing employers’ growing faith in recovery. Demand for staff may be up, but the number of individuals putting themselves on the market has dropped for the fifth consecutive month. Perhaps the pay on offer has to rise to encourage staff to ‘make the move’. If it doesn’t we could be about to witness a growing gap between what the employers need and what employees are prepared to do.” Markit Henley on Thames Oxon RG9 1HG, UK Tel: +44 1491 461000 Fax: +44 1491 461001 email: economics@markit.com Copies of the report are available on annual subscription from Markit. For subscription details please contact: economics@markit.com The Report on Jobs is a monthly publication produced by Markit and sponsored by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG LLP. The report features original survey data which provide the most up-to- date monthly picture of recruitment, employment, staff availability and employee earnings trends available. 1 Executive summary 2 Appointments 3 Vacancies 4 Sectoral demand 5 Staff availability 6 Pay pressures 7 Special feature Key points from the September survey: Marked increases in both permanent placements and temp billings Permanent salary inflation sharpest since February 2008 Vacancies continue to rise at marked pace Candidate availability falls further    
  • 2. Report on Jobs | Recruitment Industry Survey The Report on Jobs is unique in providing the most comprehensive guide to the UK labour market, drawing on original survey data provided by recruitment consultancies and employers to provide the first indication each month of labour market trends. The main findings for September are: Strong growth of staff appointments maintained... Recruitment consultants signalled a further substantial rise in permanent staff placements during September. The pace of expansion was only slightly slower than July’s 40-month high. Temp billings similarly increased at a sharp rate, with growth close to the 15-year high seen in August. ...supported by marked expansion of vacancies Demand for staff continued to increase strongly in September. Growth of job vacancies was at a similar pace to that recorded in August, which was the fastest for over six years. Candidate availability continues to fall... September data indicated a further reduction in the availability of candidates. Solid rates of decline were indicated for both permanent and temporary staff availability. ...contributing to further increase in pay rates Permanent salary inflation quickened slightly in September, reaching its sharpest rate since February 2008. Temp pay inflation also accelerated, with the latest rise only marginally slower than July’s five-and-a-half year high. 1 Executive summary 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Staff Appointments Temp/Contract Billings Permanent Placements 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 50 = no change on previous month 50=no change on previous month 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Staff Availability and Earnings Growth Skill shortages Average permanent salaries (LHS) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 50 = no change on previous month 50 = no change on previous month (inverted) inverted - RHS) (Availability of staff 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Temp/Contract Vacancies Permanent Vacancies 50 = no change on previous month 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Increasing rate of growth Increasing rate of decline Demand for staff All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit Economics Limited
  • 3. Report on Jobs | Recruitment Industry Survey Recruitment consultancies report on the number of people placed in permanent jobs each month, and their revenues (billings) received from placing people in temporary or contract positions at employers. Latest data from the survey of recruitment consultancies pointed to further strong growth of staff appointments during September. Marked increase in permanent placements The number of people placed into permanent jobs continued to rise in September, extending the current period of expansion to 12 months. The rate of growth was marked, having accelerated since August to a pace only slightly below July’s 40-month high. Improved market conditions, higher activity levels at clients and generally stronger confidence among employers were reported to have underpinned the latest rise in placements. Permanent placements increased across all four monitored English regions, with the North continuing to register the sharpest growth. Temp billings growth eases slightly from 15-year high September data signalled a further increase in agencies’ temporary/contract staff billings. Although moderating from the 15-year high posted in August, the rate of growth remained strong. The Midlands saw the fastest increase in temp billings during September, while the South posted the slowest rise. An index reading above 50 signals a higher number of placements/billings than the previous month. Readings below 50 signal a decline compared with the previous month. 2 Staff appointments 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Temp/Contract Billings Permanent Placements Increasing rate of decline Increasing rate of growth 50 = no change on previous month Staff Appointments via Recruitment Consultancies 2013 Apr 38.9 36.7 24.4 14.5 57.2 52.5 May 39.2 30.7 30.1 9.1 54.6 53.4 Jun 47.9 31.5 20.6 27.2 63.6 57.6 Jul 48.9 32.0 19.1 29.8 64.9 63.3 Aug 37.8 38.6 23.6 14.2 57.1 61.3 Sep 49.0 33.5 17.4 31.6 65.8 62.2 Higher Same Lower Net Index S.Adj. % % % +/- 50 = no chg Index Permanent Staff Placements Q. Please compare the number of staff placed in permanent positions with the number one month ago. 2013 Apr 26.1 42.7 31.3 -5.2 47.4 48.7 May 34.8 42.7 22.5 12.2 56.1 52.6 Jun 41.3 39.1 19.6 21.7 60.8 56.4 Jul 46.6 36.8 16.6 30.0 65.0 61.5 Aug 44.4 40.0 15.6 28.8 64.4 62.9 Sep 43.1 43.1 13.8 29.4 64.7 61.7 Higher Same Lower Net Index S.Adj. % % % +/- 50 = no chg Index Temporary/Contract Staff Billings Q. Please compare your billings received from the employment of temporary and contract staff with the situation one month ago.
  • 4. Report on Jobs | Recruitment Industry Survey 3 Vacancies All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit Economics Limited Recruitment consultants are asked to specify whether the demand for staff from employers has changed on the previous month, thereby providing an indicator of the number of job vacancies. The summary indexes shown in this page are derived from the detailed sector data shown on page 5. Further strong rise in vacancies Demand for staff continued to increase at a marked pace in September. The Report on Jobs Vacancies Index posted 63.5 in September, only slightly below the reading of 63.7 in August, which was the highest for over six years. Both permanent and temporary staff registered sharp rates of demand growth in the latest survey period. Public & private sector vacancies Private sector demand for staff continued to rise at a substantial pace in September. In the case of permanent workers, the latest increase was the fastest since data were first available in December 2011. In the public sector, demand for temporary staff improved at the sharpest rate in the series history, but permanent workers saw a slight fall in demand for their services. Other vacancy indicators Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that job vacancies were up 11.1% on an annual basis in the three months to August. Latest available data signalled that internet-based recruitment spending rose by 2.3% in the first quarter of 2013. That was down from a pace of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2012. The Job Vacancies Index monitors the overall demand for staff at recruitment consultancies. An index reading above 50 signals a higher number of vacancies than the previous month. Readings below 50 signal a decline compared with the previous month. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Temp/Contract Vacancies Permanent Vacancies 50 = no change on previous month 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Increasing rate of growth Increasing rate of decline 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Job Vacancies 50 = no change on previous month Vacancy Index Increasing rate of growth Increasing rate of decline Job Vacancy Indicators May’13 Jun Jul Aug Sep Job Vacancy Index (recruitment industry survey) 50 = no change on previous month Other key vacancy data Annual % change Sources: Job centre vacancies provided by Office for National Statistics Internet recruitment spending provided by WARC.com Total 54.9 59.2 61.1 63.7 63.5 Permanent Staff 54.9 59.3 61.0 63.6 63.6 Temporary Staff 55.6 58.0 61.6 64.0 62.8 Public: perm 46.7 52.8 47.6 47.4 49.1 Public: temp 50.8 50.0 53.8 51.6 58.2 Private: perm 64.9 66.6 67.1 65.7 68.7 Private: temp 60.2 63.9 65.5 66.3 65.5 Job centre vacancies 12.0 12.9 12.6 11.1 n/a Internet recruitment 2.3 -- -- -- -- Public & private sector vacancies (not seasonally adjusted)
  • 5. Report on Jobs | Recruitment Industry Survey Recruitment consultancies are requested to compare the demand for staff according to sector with the situation one month ago. Permanent Staff Demand rose for all nine categories of permanent staff monitored by the survey in September. The strongest rate of growth was signalled for Construction workers, closely followed by Engineering staff. Hotel & Catering posted the slowest rise. 4 Demand for staff by sector 50 = no change on previous month Demand for staff 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Secretarial & Clerical Perm Tem p 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Accounting & Financial Tem p Perm 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Executive & Professional Perm Tem p 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 IT & Computing Tem p Perm 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Tem p Blue Collar Perm 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nursing/Medical/Care Tem p Perm 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Hotel & Catering Tem p Perm Engineering; Construction This year (Last year) Rank Sep'13 Rank Sep'12 This year (Last year) Rank Sep'13 Rank Sep'12 *Non-seasonally adjusted data. Prior to April 2013 Engineering/Construction was reported as a single category. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices whereby a reading of 50 indicates no change on the previous month. Readings above 50 signal stronger demand than a month ago. Readings below 50 signal weaker demand than a month ago. Engineering* 1 66.6 n/a n/a Blue Collar 2 65.9 (2) (54.2) Nursing/Medical/Care 3 65.8 (1) (62.5) Construction* 4 62.2 n/a n/a IT & Computing 5 62.1 (4) (51.9) Secretarial/Clerical 6 61.8 (3) (52.8) Accounting/Financial 7 58.6 (7) (48.4) Executive/Professional 8 54.2 (6) (48.7) Hotel & Catering 9 54.0 (5) (49.9) Construction* 1 70.3 n/a n/a Engineering* 2 69.2 n/a n/a IT & Computing 3 67.3 (2) (55.0) Executive/Professional 4 63.9 (5) (52.4) Accounting/Financial 5 63.7 (3) (53.8) Secretarial/Clerical 6 61.9 (4) (52.9) Nursing/Medical/Care 7 61.3 (1) (60.7) Blue Collar 8 56.5 (6) (50.0) Hotel & Catering 9 56.1 (7) (47.7) Temporary/contract staff Growth of demand was broad-based across all nine temporary/contract staff sectors in the latest survey period. Engineering workers were the most sought-after. Mirroring the trend seen for permanent staff, the weakest growth was signalled for Hotel & Catering employees. 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 Engineering Construction Perm Tem p
  • 6. Report on Jobs | Recruitment Industry Survey Recruitment consultants are asked to report whether availability of permanent and temporary staff has changed on the previous month. An overall indicator of staff availability is also calculated. Availability of permanent staff The availability of candidates to fill permanent job roles deteriorated for a fifth consecutive month in September. The rate of decline was little-changed from the solid pace recorded in August. All four English regions posted lower permanent staff availability during September. The sharpest reduction was signalled in London. Availability of temp/contract staff Temporary/contract staff availability continued to fall in September. The rate of deterioration was broadly unchanged from that signalled in the previous two months. Temp availability fell across London, the Midlands and the South, but was unchanged in the North. 5 Staff availability 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Temp Availability Permanent Availability 50 = no change on previous month 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Improving availability Deteriorating availability 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Staff Availability 50 = no change on previous month Staff Availability Index Improving availability Deteriorating availability 2013 Apr 19.5 61.1 19.4 0.1 50.0 50.1 May 16.3 64.1 19.6 -3.3 48.4 49.6 Jun 15.5 61.0 23.6 -8.1 45.9 48.3 Jul 13.0 56.3 30.7 -17.6 41.2 44.2 Aug 13.9 58.3 27.8 -13.9 43.0 45.7 Sep 19.0 51.6 29.4 -10.5 44.8 45.3 Key permanent staff skills reported in short supply:* Accountancy/Financial: Accountancy, Banking, Finance, Insurance. Blue Collar: Semi-skilled operators, Skilled trades. Construction: Project managers, Quantity surveyors. Engineering: Automotive, Design engineers, Electrical, General engineering, Geotechnical, Heavy engineering, Mechanical, Rail, Revit technicians, Structural, Subsea. Executive/Professional: Business development, HR, Marketing. Hotels/Catering: Chefs, Front of house. IT/ Computing: Business analysts, Cloud, Developers, Digital marketing, GWT, Java, .Net, PHP. Nursing/Medical/Care: Clinical diagnostics. Secretarial/Clerical: Legal secretaries, Office support. Other: Customer service, Languages, Sales. Key temp skills reported in short supply:* Accountancy/Financial: Accountancy. Blue Collar: CNC, HGV drivers, Joiners, Labourers, LGV drivers, Skilled trades, Welding. Engineering: Engineers, Technicians. Hotels/ Catering: Chefs. IT/Computing: Business analysts, Java. Nursing/Medical/Care: RGNs. Secretarial/Clerical: Legal secretaries, Reception. Other: Sales. Availability of permanent staff Q. Is the availability of candidates for permanent vacancies better, the same or worse than one month ago? Better Same Worse Net Index S.Adj. % % % +/- Index 2013 Apr 16.8 65.5 17.7 -1.0 49.5 51.4 May 15.6 66.8 17.6 -2.0 49.0 51.0 Jun 23.4 59.7 17.0 6.4 53.2 53.1 Jul 17.9 55.4 26.6 -8.7 45.7 47.2 Aug 16.2 58.0 25.8 -9.6 45.2 46.9 Sep 18.4 55.1 26.5 -8.0 46.0 47.0 Availability of temporary/contract staff Q. Is the availability of candidates for temporary vacancies better, the same or worse than one month ago? Better Same Worse Net Index S.Adj. % % % +/- Index All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit Economics Limited *consultants are invited to specify any areas in which they have encountered skill shortages during the latest month
  • 7. Report on Jobs | Recruitment Industry Survey The recruitment industry survey tracks both the average salaries awarded to people placed in permanent jobs each month, as well as average hourly rates of pay for temp/contract staff. Permanent salaries Average starting salaries awarded to successful candidates placed in permanent jobs increased further in September. Quickening marginally since August, the rate of inflation was the fastest since February 2008. Panellists linked salary growth to a combination of higher demand for staff, shortages of skilled candidates and increased numbers of higher- specification jobs being filled. Permanent salary inflation was sharpest in the South, while the Midlands posted the slowest rise. Temp/contract pay rates Hourly rates of pay for staff in temporary/contract employment continued to increase in September, which a number of panellists attributed to skill shortages. The latest rise was slightly stronger than that recorded in August and only marginally below July’s five-and-a-half year high. In contrast to the trend in permanent salaries, the fastest rise in temp pay was signalled by Midlands-based consultancies. 6 Pay pressures 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Temp/Contract Hourly Pay Rates Permanent Salaries Increasing rate of decline Increasing rate of growth 50 = no change on previous month Pay Pressures 2013 Mar 10.7 84.1 5.2 5.5 52.7 52.7 Apr 10.1 84.8 5.1 4.9 52.5 52.1 May 13.1 80.4 6.5 6.6 53.3 51.8 Jun 14.4 79.6 6.0 8.4 54.2 53.2 Jul 14.9 82.2 2.9 12.0 56.0 54.0 Aug 16.2 80.6 3.2 13.0 56.5 56.5 Sep 17.6 79.7 2.7 14.9 57.5 56.7 Higher Same Lower Net Index S.Adj. % % % +/- Index Permanent Salaries Q.Areaverage salaries awarded tostaffplaced in permanent positions higher, the same or lower than one month ago? 2013 Mar 8.8 89.3 1.9 6.9 53.5 52.1 Apr 7.7 86.8 5.5 2.2 51.1 51.6 May 8.6 87.1 4.4 4.2 52.1 52.0 Jun 11.9 83.7 4.4 7.5 53.7 53.9 Jul 15.7 81.3 2.9 12.8 56.4 56.8 Aug 12.1 85.0 2.8 9.3 54.7 55.3 Sep 14.3 82.5 3.3 11.0 55.5 56.0 Higher Same Lower Net Index S.Adj. % % % +/- Index Temporary/Contract Pay Rates Q. Are average hourly pay rates for temporary/contract staff higher, the same or lower than one month ago? 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 Public sector Private sector Annual percent change Yr/yr % chg in average weekly earnings (3mma) 2010 2011 2012 Apr'13 May Jun Jul Whole economy 2.3 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.1 Private sector 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 1.4 Public sector 3.3 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 Services 2.3 2.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.1 Manufacturing 4.0 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.1 Construction 0.3 0.8 0.8 -0.3 -0.4 0.9 -0.8 UK average weekly earnings Data from the Office for National Statistics signalled that annual growth of employee earnings (including bonuses) eased to 1.1% in the three months to July, the slowest since the three months to March.
  • 8. Report on Jobs | Recruitment Industry Survey 7 Feature UK regional claimant count KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and operates from 22 offices across the UK with over 12,000 partners and staff. The UK firm recorded a turnover of £1.8 billion in the year ended September 2012. KPMG is a global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax, and Advisory services. We operate in 156 countries and have 152,000 professionals working in member firms around the world. The independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. KPMG International provides no client services. The REC is the professional body representing the UK’s £24.6 billion private recruitment and staffingindustrywithmorethan8,000recruitment agencies and 6,000 recruitment consultants in membership. There are more than 1 million temporary workers registered with UK agencies who are deployed in industry, commerce and the public services every day. Markit is a specialist compiler of business surveys and economic indices, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI® ) series, which is now available for 32 countries and key regions including the Eurozone. For more information e-mail economics@markit.com or call +44 1491 461000. Recruitment Industry Survey The monthly survey features original research data collected via questionnaire by Markit from a panel of 400 UK recruitment and employment consultancies. In 2010/11, some 1,049,333 people were employed in either temporary or contract work through consultancies and 604,193 people were placed in permanent positions through consultancies. Monthly survey data were first collected in October 1997 and are collected in the end of each month, with respondents asked to specify the direction of change in a number of survey variables. Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. The intellectual property rights to these data are owned by Markit Economics Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. The publication or release of any of these data prior to the general release time is an infringement of Markit Economics Limited’s intellectual property rights. Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. Purchasing Managers’ Index® and PMI® are registered trade marks of Markit Economics Limited. Markit and the Markit logo are registered trade marks of Markit Group Limited. UK claimant count drops to four-and-a-half year low as all regions see a fall The number of people in the UK claiming jobseeker’s allowance continued to fall in August, taking the current sequence of decline to ten months. At 1,401,800, the claimant count was down 32,600 since July and 168,100 lower than in August 2012. That took the number of claimants to its lowest level since February 2009. Declines in the claimant count were seen in all regions compared with one month previously. Consequently, the UK claimant count rate fell for the second month running to 4.2%, its lowest in four-and-a-half years. The rate fell in the vast majority of regions, with the only exception being Northern Ireland, where it remained unchanged. The South East recorded the lowest claimant count rate at 2.5%, followed by the South West at 2.7%. The highest rate was registered in Northern Ireland at 6.9%, slightly ahead of the North East at 6.8%. All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit Economics Limited South East 117 2.5 (1) South West 75 2.7 (2) East of England 100 3.4 (3) London 201 3.8 (4) East Midlands 95 4.1 (5) Scotland 126 4.5 (6) NW & Merseyside 176 4.9 (7) Wales 72 4.9 (7) West Midlands 147 5.2 (9) Yorks & Humberside 148 5.5 (10) North East 84 6.8 (11) Northern Ireland 62 6.9 (12) United Kingdom 1402 4.2 Claimant count (Aug’13) Region ‘000s Rate (%)* Rank Source: Department for Work & Pensions and National Statistics. * As a percentage of Claimant Count + Workforce Jobs.