Global Trends Pharma Report 8042008

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I was author another industry standard report for my former employers on the pharmaceutical industry

I was author another industry standard report for my former employers on the pharmaceutical industry

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  • 1. Dow Jones Insight Global Pharmaceutical FPO – cover not final Media Analysis© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.
  • 2. Table of Contents Introduction and Report Overview …………………………… 3 Global Players and Competetitive Trends…………………… 4 CEO Coverage…………………………………………………….. 12 Industry Issue Analysis…………………………………………. 18 Summary…………………………………………………………… 23 Methodology………………………………………………………. 24 About Dow Jones Insight……………………………………….. 25© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 2
  • 3. Dow Jones Insight Media Analysis Report This report was created using Dow Jones Insight’s media analysis platform to highlight media interest in the global pharmaceutical industry. It is intended as a sample only, as client engagements are customized and based on even more detail, depth and focus. Our analysis discusses the bleak news coverage in 2007 and deals with issues such as: sector job losses, pipeline gaps, threats from the generics industry, tumbling sector profits, drugs withdrawals and some drugs passing muster with increasingly tough global industry regulators.© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 3
  • 4. Section I: Global Players and Competitive Trends© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.
  • 5. Competitive Trends | Company Analysis Part 1 Merck Q2 profits up 12% and sales 13%; strong GSK – ‘Avandia sales of cholesterol, cervical cancer and diabetes increases risks drugs; Schering-Plough JV powering ahead of heart attacks’ Pfizer losing controversy 10,000 jobs Merck Q3 profits up 62%; worldwide FDA backs Isentress; Januvia and Gardasil selling better than expected Merck – Vioxx lawsuit settlement proposal limit set at $4.85 billion Pfizer turns off the taps on its Exubera insulin drug; Q3 down 77% on associated charges; rumours mount that Pfizer planning to buy Sanofi Pfizer results down GSK – Andrew Witty to replaceMerck Q1 18% – ‘sick man of JP Garnier; GSK taking U.S.profits up the industry’ patent office to court over restrictions © Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 5
  • 6. Competitive Trends | Company Analysis Part 2 Sanofi-Aventis – Novartis net rises 11% in Q1, driven by strong sales of hypertension and generics dent Q4 profit cancer drugs; takes charge on Zelnorm; sells Gerber food business to Nestle Novartis – Q2 profits up but cuts sales outlook; shares downgraded on ‘prospects,’ but Sandoz generic drugs units sees double-digit growth AstraZeneca – Buys MedImmune ($16 billion) vaccines company to plug Sanofi-Aventis – to invest pipeline, investors worry it has overpaid; declares 11% rise in pretax profits $70 million in China flu for Q1 but takes $83 billion charge on heart drug trials failure vaccine plant; class action over Zimulti; L’Oreal cuts stakeSanofi-Aventis – Plavix patent ruling in Roche $3 billion takeover AstraZeneca – faces patent battle in U.S.favour but Zimulti diet drug rejected by bid for Ventana Medical over Crestor; pretax profits down 14%;FDA Systems cutting inventory to lift concerns © Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 6
  • 7. Competitive Trends | Analysis by Content Type Merck – caps Vioxx payouts; cholesterol, cervical cancer and diabetes drugs sell well GSK – Andrew Witty to take over at the top announced in autumn; Cervarix cancer vaccine FDA delay at end of year Pfizer – 10,000 job losses, hit by generics and expiring patents AstraZeneca – filling pipeline holes through headline-making acquisitions Novartis – sales up but Indian patent litigation and Zelnorm withdrawal worries leading to 2,500 job cuts announced at year end© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 7
  • 8. Competitive Trends | Share of Voice by Region Pfizer – Losing Chinese ‘Viagra’ patent name ‘Wei Ge’ case; in talks to spin off Japanese R&D unit AstraZeneca – To invest $100 million in Chinese R&D facility; major restructuring and cost cutting in Europe Roche – Holds off generic Plavix patent challenge but remains subject of takeover speculationAll the European-based companies show a less-than-20% media footprint in the U.S. marketSanofi, Roche and Novartis have heavy European footprints (close to 60%) – strength in one placesuggests an obvious growth path in another for the Europeans (the U.S.) © Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 8
  • 9. Competitive Trends | Share of Voice by Country A company’s ‘home turf’ reflects the dominance and extent of country-by-country coverage it receives: Novartis/Roche = Switzerland GSK/AstraZeneca = UK Others = U.S.© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 9
  • 10. Competitive Trends | Top Publications Part 2 Top 3 AstraZeneca Publications Top 3 Eli Lilly Publications The Guardian 361 Indianapolis Star 377 Il Giornale 264 Kommersant - Ukraine 222 El País 211 Basler Zeitung 177 Top 3 Merck Publications Top 3 Roche Publications El País 286 Basler Zeitung 345 Frankfurter Rundschau 276 Il Giornale 257 The Wall Street Journal 271 Neue Zürcher Zeitung 248© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 10
  • 11. Competitive Trends | Top Publications Part 2 Top 3 Novartis Publications Basler Zeitung 817 Neue Zürcher Zeitung 497 Finanz und Wirtschaft 403 Top 3 Pfizer Publications El País 300 The Wall Street Journal 273 Kommersant - Ukraine 224 Top 3 Sanofi Publications Les Echos 498 El País 301 Le Figaro 254© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 11
  • 12. Section II: CEO Coverage© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.
  • 13. CEO Coverage | Trend Analysis Part 1 Daniel Vasella considers reactivating share buyback programme, denies acquisition talks, attacked over pay and on single versus dual role David Brennan takes lead of additional 4,600 job cuts announced as pretax profits for Q2 tumble by 10% and MedImmune buy completes Daniel Vasella announces job cuts, says Q1 in ’08 will be negative in the U.S. Humer announces sales up 16%, David Brennan pitches in as EU David Brennan cuts 3,000 jobs and says Roche will broaden investor patent office revokes patent on rules out large takeover base in Russia, Middle East and Asia Symbicort anti-asthma drug© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 13
  • 14. CEO Coverage | Trend Analysis Part 2 With Garnier due to retire in May ‘08, the battle for a successor is finally concluded when head of European pharmaceuticals Andrew Witty is named as next CEO Jeff Kindler’s plan to cut 10,000 jobs at Pfizer shakes the industry and the company to the core Kindler announces $2.8 billion write-down on insulin drug Exubera as it is pulled John Lechleiter announced as successor to Sidney Taurel starting in May ‘08 ‘Integrity will be my legacy,’ says GSK’s Dr. Garnier (The Times: 02/04/08)© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 14
  • 15. CEO Coverage | Analysis by Content Type The strongest hands-on CEOs are both at Swiss companies GSK’s Garnier stands out as a ‘transnational’ figure in 2007 BMS’s Cornelius rewarded for handling transition from sacked Peter Dolan to defending BMS against generics Two French leaders figure among the less prominent – suggesting there is a cultural ‘drift’ toward a certain style of leadership© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 15
  • 16. CEO Coverage | Analysis by Region Humer, Vasella, Dehecq and Le Fur have continental Europe profiles in excess of 70% of their total coverage and tiny profiles in North America Garnier, Brennan and Kindler are the only three leaders with strong profiles on both sides of the Atlantic© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 16
  • 17. CEO Coverage | Analysis by Country Given the importance of the Roche mid-summer bid for Ventana Medical, it is surprising we did not see more of Franz Humer in the U.S. media The Humer, Vasella, Dehecq and Le Fur bias is shown to primarily reflect coverage in French and Swiss media The Clark, Taurel, Cornelius and, to a lesser degree, Kindler U.S. bias is brought out in this chart Garnier and Brennan have solid exposure on both sides of the Atlantic© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 17
  • 18. Section III: Industry Issue Analysis© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.
  • 19. Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - Global Pfizer - under fire in Nigeria and losing patent protection on Norvasc AstraZeneca – under patent attack over No. 3 drug Crestor; Nexium and Seroquel cases due in 2008 Eli Lilly – class action on antipsychotic drug Zyprexa Roche – loses patent lawsuit on Mircera anemia drug to AmgenMerck - outstanding Vioxx Novartis - Indian patentlitigation costs capped in Sept court case woes © Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 19
  • 20. Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - Europe Novartis’ issues with Galvus approval and Zelnorm withdrawal cause higher figures Merck ends promising HIV vaccine tests Eli Lilly boosts R&D in Singapore, Argentina and KoreaGSK secures big U.S. flu Both Pfizer and AstraZeneca’s year feature heavy job cuts across both companiesvaccine contract © Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 20
  • 21. Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - Asia Pacific Roche – loses patent lawsuit on Mircera anemia drug to Amgen AstraZeneca commits to invest in R&D in Korea, Japan and China Eli Lilly announces R&D investment in regional powerhouses Singapore and KoreaNovartis gets caught at the wrong end of a nine-month court case in Indialeading to 1 in 4 of all stories reflecting badly on the company© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 21
  • 22. Issue Analysis | Share of Voice - North America Coverage regarding the U.S. FDA represents somewhere between one-in-six to one-in-three of all pharmaceutical news stories in the U.S. marketplace© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 22
  • 23. Summary | Looking Back at 2007 With many of the largest drug companies reporting full-year results in January 2008, it is clear that few were showing little signs of escaping their big-picture problems. These include upcoming patent expirations, rising competition from generic drug makers, low R&D productivity and a lack of new revenue drivers, spreading legal challenges and increased government scrutiny of drug safety and marketing practices. These factors have long weighed on drug makers stock. In addition, the U.S. presidential election in November it is likely to keep pressure on the sector as the price of healthcare again becomes a political focus in the worlds largest drugs market. One positive for the sector is that during January some investors and analysts started highlighting that drugs companies, despite their problems, have at least maintained relatively strong balance sheets, solid near-term earnings visibility underpinned by share buybacks, limited exposure to a consumer downturn in the U.S. and good cash flow. One small blot on the immediate horizon, European Union investigators have targeted companies in several countries, as the blocs antitrust watchdog launched a wide investigation of potentially anticompetitive practices in the industry. AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis, and Pfizer said they were among the companies contacted.© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 23
  • 24. Report Methodology Overview The findings in this complimentary report summarize the results of a Dow Jones Insight text-mining platform. Our system gathers relevant content from more than 10,000 global traditional media sources plus social media sources including Websites, blogs and message boards. The Dow Jones Insight Media Lab consultants then review the results to produce a report with summary charts and analysis. This study analyzed coverage from the Dow Jones Factiva global media set unless otherwise specified. Media Set Press releases were excluded from this analysis by the exclusion of all “paid-for” wire services, except where stated otherwise. Datamonitor Profiles, News and Comment and Premium Research Reports were also excluded to ensure a high relevancy of the underlying data set. Routine General News and Republished News were also excluded. Search construction Search strings used for investigating products, terms, market issues and individuals were constructed using Dow Jones Factiva’s predetermined codes unless otherwise noted. Reporting Period January 1, 2007 through December 31, 2007© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 24
  • 25. About Dow Jones Insight Dow Jones Insight delivers actionable intelligence that allows companies to optimize their communications strategies in order to nurture their reputation, increase earnings and achieve business objectives. It distills millions of articles and blog postings down to strategic quantitative and qualitative media metrics and provides visualization tools to help discern what it means. When companies know what is being said about them, they are able to discover both emerging opportunities and threats while they can still affect their outcome. Each Dow Jones Insight engagement is fully supported by the Media Lab, whose expert analysts and consultants both develop an organization’s research strategy and compose the search definitions that generate comprehensive media measurements and analysis. With Dow Jones Insight’s high-quality media analysis, you can: •Track drivers of corporate reputation •Understand issues and trends in time to act •Visualize hot spots in media coverage •Ensure accurate and reliable media measurement •Defend budgets and measure the return on investment for your campaigns For more information, or to arrange a demonstration, please visit: www.solutions.dowjones.com/insight© Copyright 2008 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential | 25