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Seminar: Francis Johnson on Biofuels, Climate and Development

Seminar: Francis Johnson on Biofuels, Climate and Development



Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute on Biofuels, Climate and Development: Emerging Issues and Challenges.

Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute on Biofuels, Climate and Development: Emerging Issues and Challenges.



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    Seminar: Francis Johnson on Biofuels, Climate and Development Seminar: Francis Johnson on Biofuels, Climate and Development Presentation Transcript

    • Bioenergy, Climate and Development: Emerging Issues and Challenges Institute of Development Studies University of Sussex 15 September 2008 Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Energy and Climate, SEI
    • Historical background of SEI : • Began with Beijer Institute in 1977; focus on energy & climate • Groundbreaking studies on fuel wood in Africa • Helped form GHGs advisory group in 1980s - later led to IPCC • SEI created in 1989, named after 1972 UN Conference Current structure of SEI: • Centres-Stockholm (HQ), Tallinn, U.S., Oxford, York, Bangkok • New Centre at University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania • Climate and Energy is one of six research programmes • About 120 research staff and 25 support staff • International partners and associates in more than 40 countries • Funded through Govt core support (20%) and projects (80%) MISSION: to support decision-making and induce change towards sustainable development around the world by providing integrative knowledge that bridges science and policy in the field of environment and development
    • Improving Access to Modern Energy Services Advancing Bioenergy Resources Supporting Climate Policy Processes ………………for Sustainable Development A-B-C for D SEI Climate and Energy Programme Strategy provides focal points for SEI policy analysis, research, and capacity-building efforts
    • Recent or ongoing SEI bioenergy programmes, projects, and networks  Advancing Modern Bioenergy: Guidelines for Policymakers and Investors; World Bank/ESMAP (2001-2005)  Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA); EC/FP5, 2002-06  Renewable Energy Partnerships for Africa; EC/FP6, 2004-2005  Biomass, Livelihoods & International Trade; Sida, 2005-2007  Bioenergy for Development in a Changing Climate; Sida,2007-09  Competence Platform on Energy Crop and Agro-forestry Systems for Semi-arid Ecosystems in Africa (COMPETE); EC/FP6, 2007-09  Briefing Paper for European Parliament on EU Biofuels Target and Sustainability Criteria, 2008  Clean Cooking Fuels in the East African Community (EAC), 2008  Household Energy: Analysis of ethanol cook stoves in Ethiopia, 2008
    • What is Biomass? – living matter originating from plants and animals: primary, secondary, tertiary sources Biomass ≠ Bio-energy! Many inter-connected and critical functions/services: • The 4Fs: Food, Feed, Fibre, and Fuel......... • .......and still more Fs: Fertiliser, Feedstocks, Flora, Fauna • Shelter, housing, household materials • Livelihoods, entrepreneurship, local business opportunities • Maintenance of Biodiversity • Ecosystem functions and integrity • Nutrient cycles and functional synergies • Water quality, erosion control, watershed maintenance • Recreation, peacefulness, tranquillity, wildlife observation • Contribution to human dignity and equality • Shaping the role of citizens and communities as caretakers • Resource Base for Future Generations
    • Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for bio-energy development and North-South Collaboration • Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods • Relieving resource pressures and stresses • Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration • Energy security: local – regional – global • Rural health issues - indoor air • Urban health issues – lead, air quality • future competitiveness of agro-industries • Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits • Developing countries looking for foreign investment through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market • Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification
    • Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios 136 111 68 32 40 221 14 2 0 178 137 CIS & 111 W.Europe 1 8 14 17 Baltic States 21 34 32 39 10 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 E.Europe 315 Near East & 410 East Asia Japan North America 253 North Africa 331 21 24 Ameri 14 21 178 South Asia 125 100 46 149 60 41 15 Caribean & Oceania harves ting res idues Latin America sub-Saharan America bioenergy crops Africa Potential in Oceania is 4-6 times projected 125 primary energy use 100 Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski – March 2004 60 A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources 4 for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109.
    • Intensity of agricultural cultivation remains low in most world regions
    • Share of biomass in global energy consumption Other ‘New’ renewables 5% Large hydro Modern bio- 16% energy 11% Other Traditional renewables biomass 3% 68% Biomass 11% Oil Nuclear 35% 7% Coal 22% Natural gas 22% Source: IEA and UNDP, 2004-2007
    • Sub-Saharan Africa energy consumption Excluding South Africa Nuclear 0% Coal 11% Oil 13% Hydro 2% Gas Including South Africa 3% Nuclear Oil Coal 1% 13% 21% Gas 3% Hydro 1% combustible renewables and waste 71% combustible renewables and waste 61% Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004
    • Distribution of biomass used for energy by type and end-use
    • Share of Traditional Biomass in Residential Consumption Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, page 423. 2.5 billion people depend on traditional biomass for cooking
    • Covering a charcoal kiln
    • Charcoal bag distribution by truck (note the driver having a nap underneath it)
    • The Role of modern bioenergy Modern bioenergy will play a leading role in the global transition to clean and sustainable energy due to two decisive advantages over other renewables: (1) Biomass is stored energy. Like fossil fuels, it can be drawn on at any time, in sharp contrast to daily or seasonally intermittent solar, wind, and small hydro sources, whose contributions are all constrained by the high costs of energy storage. (2) Biomass can produce all forms of energy, i.e. energy carriers, for modern economies: electricity, gas, liquid fuels, and heat. Solar, wind, wave and hydro are limited to electricity and in some cases heat. Modern bioenergy has several other advantages over other energy resources: • provides rural jobs and income to people who grow or harvest the bioenergy resources; bioenergy is more labour-intensive than other energy resources; • increases profitability in the agriculture, food-processing and forestry sectors. Biomass residues and wastes--often with substantial disposal costs--can instead be converted to energy for sale or for internal use to reduce energy bills; • helps to restore degraded lands. Growing trees, shrubs or grasses can reverse damage to soils, with energy production and sales as a valuable bonus;
    • Steps and resources in biomass conversion to energy products and fuels
    • Sugar Cane Harvesting in Malawi
    • Eucalyptus plantation in Brazil
    • Ethanol for cooking stoves
    • Bioenergy market development 1.Local use of forest and agricultural residues 2.Assuring proper waste treatment, processing of residues, and energy efficiency 3.Infrastructure development 4.National market development through supportive policies and incentives 5.Regional biomass markets, medium-to-large scale utilization, transport logistics 6. Increasing scale, followed by decreasing costs 7. Global commodity market
    • Livelihoods – creation of jobs in energy industries Energy source Jobs per TWh output Nuclear 75 Small hydro 120 Natural gas 250 Big hydro 250 Oil 260 Oil offshore 265 Coal 370 Traditional biomass (wood) 733 - 1.067 Wind 918 - 2.400 Ethanol (in Brazil) 3.711 - 5.392 Solar 2.958 – 10.700 Source: Delcio, 2007
    • Major Barriers to Modern Bioenergy Markets in Least Developed Countries • The Three I’s: Infrastructure, Investment, and Institutions • Infrastructure: • difficulty in getting products to regional and international markets • technology platforms too often based on “northern” standards • very large region: SSA is bigger than Brazil, China, and India combined • low technical capacity to adapt to technical standards (i.e. fuel quality) • Investment: • demand is too small for local markets to develop or attract investment • demand is not well-articulated in terms of end-use sectors • investment risk is seen as very high in macro-economic terms • Institutions: • lack of well-defined regulations for energy firm ownership and operation • intra-regional economic cooperation at a very early stage; some regions (southern Africa) dominated by one country (South Africa) • low government capacity to implement bioenergy policies • low administrative capacity to prove compliance with biofuel certification
    • Bioenergy Development Options - Scale matters Large Scale Small Scale 1. Sugarcane to EtOH 1. Sweet Sorghum – micro-distillery 2. Palm / Soy Biodiesel 2. Woodlot gasification elec. Mill-owned Small-holder Multi-product Single estate led or multi-crop Bioenergy Very competitive Higher cost base e.g. sweet sorghum Product globally Less globally Economics e.g. multi-species Uncertain woodlot competitive Lower Value Higher Value Complex- Value Added Added to Local Added to Value Added to to Local Communities Local Local Communities *lowest risk Communities Communities *high risk Export potential *moderate risk *high risk Complex food- fuel-cash-crop Export potential Local Markets interactions Social Issues Crop not well SOURCE: Woods, J. Foucs 14: IFPRI, 2006 characterised
    • Land Suitability for Sugarcane Cultivation in SADC Legend SLCR Areas  Potential small, medium and large International Areas National Areas (No Categories) scale areas (rain fed & irrigated) National Areas (IUCN Categorised) suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Limited Potential for medium to large scale and irrigated plantings in South Africa and Zimbabwe Limited Potential for any new plantings in Mauritius Cautious establishment at present of new plantations by potential investors in Angola and DRC 0 - 200 400 Kilometres 600 Malawi Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Total Estimated suitable/available land (1000 ha) 206 2338 124 1178 3856 Estimated suitable/available land (%) 2.2 3.0 0.2 1.6 1.5 Ratio of maximum to current production 10 585 5 69 61 Source: UKwZN 2007, South Africa
    • rapid growth of sweet sorghum (3-4 months)
    • Land suitability for sweet sorghum (using FAO data) Country Total Land Suitable Share (1000ha) Low – Inputs High - Inputs Malawi 9408 11% 26% Mozambique 78409 16% 28% South Africa 121447 0% 1% Tanzania 88359 4% 13% Zambia 74339 8% 34% Zimbabwe 38685 0% 3%
    • North-South trade in biomass: conflict or synergy? Market or environment? Trade or aid? Local or global? Food, feed, or fuel? Technology or behaviour? Efficiency or equity? Industry or society? Capital or labour?
    • Land area per capita by type and major countries or regions 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 Area (ha per capita) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 China Brazil ASEAN EU27 India Other Asia SADC Sub- United WORLD Saharan States of Africa America Arable land and Permanent crops Permanent meadows and pastures Forest area Other land Source: FAOSTAT, 2008
    • Estimated 1st generation biofuel potentials, theoretical biofuel demands and production capacities (as of end 2006) for selected world regions (Areas of circles depict approximate comparative scales)
    • FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCE Energy output per unit of fossil fuel input ETHANOL BIODIESEL 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sugar Wheat Sugar Corn Palm Oil Waste Soy Rape Cane Beets vegetable Oil Source: Various, compiled by World Watch Institute, 2006.
    • Yield comparison: 1st Generation Biofuels Biofuel Energy Seed yield Crop yield Crop yield yield (t/ha) (t/ha) (litre/ha) (GJ/ha) Sugarcane 100 7500 157.5 (juice) Palm oil 9800 70 3000 105.0 Sweet 60 4200 88.2 sorghum Maize 7 2500 52.5 Jatropha 740 700 24.5 Soybean 480 500 17.5
    • Carbon debt, biofuel carbon debt allocation, annual carbon repayment rate, and years to repay biofuel carbon debt for nine scenarios of biofuel production Published by AAAS J. Fargione et al., Science 319, 1235 -1238 (2008)
    • Estimated levels of land degradation by major region Total Degradation: None Light Moderate Severe Severe Very degradation: Moderate – Light-Very Very Severe Severe Sub-Saharan 33 24 18 15 10 65 42 Africa North Africa and 30 17 19 28 7 70 52 Near East Asia and Pacific 28 12 32 22 7 72 61 North Asia east of 53 14 12 17 4 47 33 Urals South and Central 23 27 23 22 5 77 50 America Europe 9 21 22 36 12 90 70 North America 51 16 16 16 0 44 29 World 35 18 21 20 6 65 47 Source: UNEP, 1992
    • What is one buying when importing biofuels? Is it Or is technology? it the Sun? What is the preferred way to cut butter? With a knife? Or with a chainsaw?
    • International Partners ENDA-TM CEEEZ Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia Limited EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General
    • Thanks are extended to EC DG-Research and Sida-INEC for financial support! www.carensa.net www.sei.se