Tuong Vu University of Oregon February 2009 Political economy of Vietnam's response to Avian Influenza

Sources About 70 interviews (2005, 2008) with policymakers, local officials, businesses, journalists, academics, foreign experts, representatives from donors’ organizations, ordinary farmers Two primary newspapers (2003-2008): Tuoi Tre (Youth): largest newspaper in Vietnam Nong Thon Ngay Nay (The Countryside Today): newspaper of the Farmers’ Union, devoted to rural issues Other newspapers and publications

About 70 interviews (2005, 2008) with policymakers, local officials, businesses, journalists, academics, foreign experts, representatives from donors’ organizations, ordinary farmers

Two primary newspapers (2003-2008):

Tuoi Tre (Youth): largest newspaper in Vietnam

Nong Thon Ngay Nay (The Countryside Today): newspaper of the Farmers’ Union, devoted to rural issues

Other newspapers and publications

Why Vietnam? Crucial country on the global front: Seven waves of outbreaks with 2,500 outbreaks (10x Indonesia, 2x Egypt) 52 casualties (cf. 122 in Indonesia, 22 in Egypt) $115 m. in aid or $1.35 per capita ($0.57 for Indonesia and $0.27 for Egypt) Two paradoxes: Why poor but picked most expensive strategy (comprehensive vaccination)? Why largest aid recipient and toughest strategy but also experienced highest number of outbreaks in recurrent waves?

Crucial country on the global front:

Seven waves of outbreaks with 2,500 outbreaks (10x Indonesia, 2x Egypt)

52 casualties (cf. 122 in Indonesia, 22 in Egypt)

$115 m. in aid or $1.35 per capita ($0.57 for Indonesia and $0.27 for Egypt)

Two paradoxes:

Why poor but picked most expensive strategy (comprehensive vaccination)?

Why largest aid recipient and toughest strategy but also experienced highest number of outbreaks in recurrent waves?

Simplified timeline of Avian Influenza Date Events 06/2003 Govt detected early cases of AI but decided to cover up 12/2003-1/2004 Newspapers broke the news of massive outbreaks, forcing government to announce the epidemic. Donors rushed in to offer help 4/2005 Comprehensive vaccination was authorized 7/2005 “ Hanoi Core Statement” was issued 1/2006 Govt issued Red Book 4/2006 Task force set up to implement One-UN 5/2006 Govt issued Green Book 1/2009 Govt quietly changed vaccination program to focus on high risk areas 2/2009 Another wave of outbreaks occur in 8 provinces

Political economic context Organizational and institutional domination of Party-state over society: policy serves state interests Extensive patronage links between central and provincial politicians: ineffective central policies and endemic corruption and wastes in public spending Marginalization of farmers who account for 70% of population: farmers likely to resist policy Increasing dependence on foreign aid and investment: big role for donors to play Triple neglects of agriculture, livestock, poultry: AI hit where government was least prepared

Organizational and institutional domination of Party-state over society: policy serves state interests

Extensive patronage links between central and provincial politicians: ineffective central policies and endemic corruption and wastes in public spending

Marginalization of farmers who account for 70% of population: farmers likely to resist policy

Increasing dependence on foreign aid and investment: big role for donors to play

Triple neglects of agriculture, livestock, poultry: AI hit where government was least prepared

WHO Politburo MoH MoF MARD World Bank Media USDA Prov gov State farms Farmers Traders USAID OIE JICA HCMC Gov Cargill Commune gov WHO Japfa CP Merial Urban consumers Figure 1: Mapping Actor Networks in AI Response District gov Mass orgs Prime Minister FAO

Power networks Foreign donors-Central officials : Relatively close, mutually dependent relationship Most powerful network making policy without much public inputs or accountability State-owned media : Powerful player, almost always producing effective propaganda serving central government Ministry of Agriculture-Poultry businesses : Close only with regards state-owned firms (small and weak) Cold, sometimes hostile, relationship with foreign firms (dominating market)

Foreign donors-Central officials :

Relatively close, mutually dependent relationship

Most powerful network making policy without much public inputs or accountability

State-owned media :

Powerful player, almost always producing effective propaganda serving central government

Ministry of Agriculture-Poultry businesses :

Close only with regards state-owned firms (small and weak)

Cold, sometimes hostile, relationship with foreign firms (dominating market)

Local governments : Forced to play along with central policy Generally weak capacity and weak incentives to comply Politicians in HCMC were exceptions Farmers : Resisted policy when they could but few protested publicly Coverage of vaccination was only 50% due in part to resistance

Local governments :

Forced to play along with central policy

Generally weak capacity and weak incentives to comply

Politicians in HCMC were exceptions

Farmers :

Resisted policy when they could but few protested publicly

Coverage of vaccination was only 50% due in part to resistance

Dominant narratives Power narrative : Created by central politicians, targeting local officials and public Problem defined as complacent local officials and public Functions: to generate compliance with harsh central policies, to blame local officials and ignorant public for problems with policy, to re-affirm central power Technical narrative : Created by donors and Vietnamese officials (dominated by vets) Functions: to identify technical problems and implement solutions, to disburse aid Character: politically correct

Power narrative :

Created by central politicians, targeting local officials and public

Problem defined as complacent local officials and public

Functions: to generate compliance with harsh central policies, to blame local officials and ignorant public for problems with policy, to re-affirm central power

Technical narrative :

Created by donors and Vietnamese officials (dominated by vets)

Functions: to identify technical problems and implement solutions, to disburse aid

Character: politically correct

Critical narratives Populist narrative : Created by progressive elements of media Functions: to express sympathy with farmers, to assert media’s role in monitoring officials and policies Character: rare, brief, and criticisms limited to individual officials below the rank of Minister Critical narrative : expressed in private, informal conversations 3 most common themes: corruption, criticisms of central policies and poor relationship between government and experts, tension between Vietnamese and foreigners

Populist narrative :

Created by progressive elements of media

Functions: to express sympathy with farmers, to assert media’s role in monitoring officials and policies

Character: rare, brief, and criticisms limited to individual officials below the rank of Minister

Critical narrative :

expressed in private, informal conversations

3 most common themes: corruption, criticisms of central policies and poor relationship between government and experts, tension between Vietnamese and foreigners

Other narratives Nationalist narrative : Created by central officials and state media Functions: to justify sacrifices to comply with central policies, to distract public from problems with policy, to project central leaders as national heroes Protectionist narrative : Created by a few poultry businesses (mostly foreign-owned) Functions: to call for assistance with losses and protection from competition

Nationalist narrative :

Created by central officials and state media

Functions: to justify sacrifices to comply with central policies, to distract public from problems with policy, to project central leaders as national heroes

Protectionist narrative :

Created by a few poultry businesses (mostly foreign-owned)

Functions: to call for assistance with losses and protection from competition

Conclusion Why poor country but expensive strategy? Donors pushed for action, backed with huge funds, and officials saw benefits in supporting donors Policy was made in a top-down manner with little public discussion and little regard for farmers’ interests Why big money and tough policy but most outbreaks? Significant evidence of farmers’ resistance to vaccination and other policies Outbreaks may have been perpetuated by vaccination (in part due to low-quality vaccines)

Why poor country but expensive strategy?

Donors pushed for action, backed with huge funds, and officials saw benefits in supporting donors

Policy was made in a top-down manner with little public discussion and little regard for farmers’ interests

Why big money and tough policy but most outbreaks?

Significant evidence of farmers’ resistance to vaccination and other policies

Outbreaks may have been perpetuated by vaccination (in part due to low-quality vaccines)

Recommendations Hanoi Core Statement (2005): “ Ownership ”: “ The Government of Vietnam exercises leadership in developing and implementing its 5 Year Socio-Economic Development Plan (SEDP) through a broad consultative processes which integrates overseas development aid into mainstream planning. The Government of Vietnam further strengthens its leadership role in co-ordinating aid at all levels.”

Hanoi Core Statement (2005):

“ Ownership ”: “ The Government of Vietnam exercises leadership in developing and implementing its 5 Year Socio-Economic Development Plan (SEDP) through a broad consultative processes which integrates overseas development aid into mainstream planning. The Government of Vietnam further strengthens its leadership role in co-ordinating aid at all levels.”

“ Mutual Accountability ”: “The Government of Vietnam and donors jointly assess, and carry out annual independent reviews, on progress in implementing agreed commitments on aid effectiveness and improved development outcomes through existing and increasingly objective country level mechanisms. Donors provide timely, transparent and comprehensive information on aid flows and programme intentions to enable Government of Vietnam to present comprehensive budget reports to legislatures and citizens , and co-ordinate aid more effectively” Donors should bring accountability back to aid management: Mistake to give government full ownership and leadership Mistake not to make government accountable to its people

“ Mutual Accountability ”: “The Government of Vietnam and donors jointly assess, and carry out annual independent reviews, on progress in implementing agreed commitments on aid effectiveness and improved development outcomes through existing and increasingly objective country level mechanisms. Donors provide timely, transparent and comprehensive information on aid flows and programme intentions to enable Government of Vietnam to present comprehensive budget reports to legislatures and citizens , and co-ordinate aid more effectively”

Donors should bring accountability back to aid management:

Mistake to give government full ownership and leadership

Mistake not to make government accountable to its people