Beyond hardware financing: Pro-poor pathways to low carbon development

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A presentation by Dr David Ockwell and Dr Rob Byrne, given at UEA in October 2013, as part of the project Pro-poor, low carbon development: Improving low carbon energy access and development benefits in Least Developed Countries (LDC). Find out more: http://steps-centre.org/project/low_carbon_development/

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Beyond hardware financing: Pro-poor pathways to low carbon development

  1. 1. Beyond hardware financing: Pro-poor pathways to low carbon development Dr David Ockwell & Dr Rob Byrne October 2013 D.G.Ockwell@sussex.ac.uk R.P.Byrne@sussex.ac.uk
  2. 2. www.steps-centre.org/project/low_carbon_development
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. Overview 1. Pathways to low carbon development (Stirling 2012) 2. Dominant framing: Hardware financing 3. Alternative 1: Building innovation capacities 4. Alternative 2: Socio-technical nature of change & development 5. Our Kenya study 6. Potential implications for policy and research
  5. 5. Multiple Pathways to “Low Carbon Development” - What? For who? How?
  6. 6. Multiple Pathways to “Low Carbon Development” - What? For who? How? - Multiple configurations of energy services, access, behaviour, technologies….
  7. 7. Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways Social expectations, cultural norms
  8. 8. Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways Historical contingency: Path dependence
  9. 9. Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways Politics: Interests, power – who frames the problem?
  10. 10. Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways Economics: Lock-in to inferior technologies – even in competitive markets
  11. 11. Dominant framing: Hardware financing Internalise positive externalities (carbon mitigation) to cover additional cost of low carbon technologies Hardware financing policies e.g. CDM
  12. 12. Accumulated investment through the CDM in USD billion by selected countries and regions as at end of October 2012 (http://www.cdmpipeline.org) Africa, 3.6, 2% ROW, 25.6, 13% Brazil, 2.0, 1% India, 22.1, 12% Key Country, USD billion, percentage ROW: Rest of the World Source: Authors, based on analysis of the CDM pipeline China, 135.0, 72%
  13. 13. Number of registered CDM projects as at end of October 2012, by project type (4908 total registered projects) (http://www.cdmpipeline.org) Hydro Wind Methane avoidance Biomass energy Landfill gas EE own generation Solar N2O Fossil fuel switch EE industry Coal bed/mine methane EE households EE supply side Reforestation Fugitive HFCs Cement Transport Geothermal PFCs and SF6 Energy distribution Afforestation EE service CO2 usage Tidal 121 79 73 69 61 35 35 33 25 22 21 17 15 14 12 7 5 2 1 272 234 1414 1413 469 459 • 87% registered CDM projects use just six types of technology • Only one new renewable energy technology – wind – although mature relative to other new renewables • Solar only 2% of portfolio Source: Authors, based on analysis of the CDM pipeline
  14. 14. Building innovation capacities Technology suppliers Supplier firms’ engineering, managerial and other technological capabilities Technology transferred Flow A Flow B Flow C Capital goods, services & designs Technology importers New production capacity Skills & know-how for operation & maintenance Knowledge & expertise behind technology Accumulation of innovation capacities
  15. 15. Building innovation systems Technology transfer Capital goods, services & designs National Innovation System New production capacity Skills & know-how for operation & maintenance Knowledge & expertise behind technology Indigenous support for technological capabilities Accumulation of innovation capacity
  16. 16. Accumulated investment through the CDM in USD billion by selected countries and regions as at end of October 2012 (http://www.cdmpipeline.org) Africa, 3.6, 2% ROW, 25.6, 13% Brazil, 2.0, 1% India, 22.1, 12% Key Country, USD billion, percentage ROW: Rest of the World Source: Authors, based on analysis of the CDM pipeline China, 135.0, 72%
  17. 17. Socio-technical nature of change & development
  18. 18. Socio-technical nature of change & development
  19. 19. Socio-technical nature of change & development
  20. 20. Socio-technical nature of change & development
  21. 21. Research questions Case study: • PV based electrical services in Kenya • Per capita = most successful global market for off-grid PV (?) Research questions: What factors can explain the success of the off-grid PV market in Kenya? • What role has hardware financing played? • What technological capacity building activities can be identified? • Can “innovation system builders” be identified? • How can this inform policy (especially Climate Innovation Centres)?
  22. 22. Methodology • In-depth historical analysis • Innovation Histories Method (Douthwaite & Ashby 2005) • Stakeholder workshop + in-depth interviews • Detailed timeline of PV market development • Codified interrogation against research questions
  23. 23. Snap shot of time line Date 1978 (Henry Watitwa) August 1982 (Enos Orongo) Description Others involved Significance Documents Brother used dry cell with wires to light a spot light bulb in our room Friends and other brothers For fun – indicates Personal memory interest in, and motivation awareness of, electricity (power was only in selected houses in town, institutions and Government buildings) Failed Coup Contextual event Stimulated Government directive to increase TV network country wide Possible press reports? Elaborations There was no solar.
  24. 24. PVMTI vs LA: An illustration from solar in Kenya
  25. 25. Different framings CDM: Funding for one-off, international hardware investments Lighting Africa: Building indigenous technological capacities & innovation systems
  26. 26. Different framings: Different distribution of benefits CDM: Private investors, China, India, Brazil Lighting Africa: Poor countries, poor people
  27. 27. Different framings: Different distribution of benefits
  28. 28. Conclusion: Pro-poor pathways to low carbon development? www.steps-centre.org/project/low_carbon_development

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