From Risk Regulation to Innovation Democracy:
precaution, participation and the pluralising of progress
www.steps-centre.o...
‘Sound Science’ in ‘Risk Management’
chemicals: “ …sound science will be the basis of
the Commission's legislative proposa...
The Precautionary Principle
“Where an activity raises threats of
harm to the environment or human health,
precautionary me...
The Precautionary Principle
Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason…
- stifles discovery...
The Precautionary Principle
Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason…
- ‘no basis’ for po...
“ … Where there are threats
of serious or irreversible damage,
lack of full scientific certainty
shall not be used as a re...
Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
The Poverty of Risk Discourse
0.001 0.1 10 1000
externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high
nuclear
power
The Poverty of Risk Disco...
0.001 0.1 10 1000
externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high
nuclear
power
The Poverty of Risk Disco...
0.001 0.1 10 1000
externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
wind
solar
b...
0.001 0.1 10 1000
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
21
wind
solar
biomass
n =
‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005...
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
36
20
wind 18
solar 11
biomass 22
31
21
16
n =
The Poverty of Risk Discourse
…‘evidence based’ ...
transportmaterialscomputingmilitaryroboticssynthetic biology
“we'll restore science to
its rightful place”…
“Our hope … re...
PROGRESS
TECHNOLOGY
SCIENCE
synthetic biology
“we'll restore science to
its rightful place”…
“Our hope … relies on scienti...
carbon capture
grassroots innovation
behaviour change
distributed renewables
market reform nuclear power
new eco-cities
ce...
social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03)
studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)
Socia...
history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83)
path-dependence (David, 85) path creation
(Karnoe, 01)
carbon captur...
philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91)
/politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02)
carbon ca...
economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89)
regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi,
82)
nuclear powe...
Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions
to means: detailed regulation of modalities
Not all...
Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions
to means: detailed regulation of modalities
“We hav...
Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions
to means: detailed regulation of modalities
increas...
unproblematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
open dynamic systems
low frequency events
human factors
changin...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
CONTROL RISK
`
Climate Change fixations with risk and control easily lead to
geoengineering…
ACKNOWLEDGE
INCERTITUDE
throp...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
aggre...
scenarios / backcasting
interactive modelling
mapping / Q-methods
participatory deliberation
democratic procedures
unprobl...
unproblematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
RISK
knowledge about possibilities...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
precautionary
appraisal
participatory
deli...
Mapping Discursive Diversity
Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise
Analysis of 12 UK government...
UK Government
ecology chair
organics
low input
intensive
GM 1
GM 2
GM 3
organics
low input
intensive
GM 1
GM 2
GM 3
UK Gov...
temporality of dynamics – are ‘disturbances’ envisaged as:
shocks
(transitory
disturbance to
otherwise
continuous
trajecto...
shocks
food: - market trends
- resource depletion
floods: - higher rainfall
climate
temporality of dynamics – are ‘disturb...
shocks
control
food: - mandate supply chains
- regulate prices
floods: - water flow
management
style of action – do interv...
shocks
control
food: - market structuring
- resource substitutions
floods: - engineered defence
style of action – do inter...
response
food: - agile supply chains
- price elasticity
floods: - retrofit flood resistance
driver of change
quality level...
response
food: - foresighted institutions
- diverse dependencies
floods: - managed retreat
driver of change
quality level
...
shock
(transitory
disturbance)
stress
(enduring
disturbance)
control
(tractable drivers)
respond
(intractable drivers)
tem...
shock
(transitory
disturbance)
stress
(enduring
disturbance)
control
(tractable drivers)
respond
(intractable drivers)
tem...
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
SUSTAINABILIT
Y
temporality
of change
style of action
Distinguishing Properties...
stability
durability
resilience
robustness
clear conditions
for diverse strategies
From Sustaining …
stability
durability
resilience
robustness
shock
ess
control response
sustain
change
clear conditions
for diverse strategi...
stability
durability
resilience
robustness
sustain
change
transruption
shock
stress
control response
take advantage of sho...
transition
stability
durability
resilience
robustness
shock
stress
control response
harness stress as an
opportunity for c...
transition
transilience
stability
durability
resilience
robustness
shock
stress
control response
shocks present a chance f...
transition
transilience
transformation
stability
durability
resilience
shock
stress
control response
stress offers a press...
transition
transilience
transformation
stability
durability
resilience
robustness
shock
stress
control response
transrupti...
transition
transilience
transformation
stability
durability
resilience
robustness
shock
stress
control response
transrupti...
technological ‘lock-in’
institutionalised
technical risk
assessment
multiple feasible
Innovation trajectories
restricted
a...
reconciles:
science and democracy:
neither ‘no alternative’ nor
‘anything goes’
IIIIII
$
IIIIII
$
IIIIIIIIIIII
$
POSSIBLE
...
From Risk Regulation to Innovation Democracy: precaution, participation and the pluralising of progress
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

From Risk Regulation to Innovation Democracy: precaution, participation and the pluralising of progress

538
-1

Published on

Presentation by Andy Stirling, STEPS Centre co-director, to a workshop on ‘responding to risks ‐ a key to dealing with socio‐ecological challenges’, Institut für Regional- und Umweltwirtschaft, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, 23rd June 2014

Published in: Business, Technology
1 Comment
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total Views
538
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
1
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • roland: analytic believe in method, intuitive believe in results
    Abstract
    The governance of science and technology is conditioned by some pervasive fallacies and fantasies. None are more extensive or deeply embedded, than those concerning the ability of human agency deliberately to control key features of interest in the world. Aspects and implications of the associated dilemmas arise both in the ways knowledge itself is understood, as well as the styles of intervention that society seeks to undertake. Common to both areas, are the neglected dynamics of power - encouraging exaggeration both of the quality of knowledge and the tractability of action.
    Focusing on the example of energy systems, this talk will quickly review some of the practical policy implications. It will argue for attention to a range of neglected 'broader based' methods for 'opening up' policy appraisal of energy systems. It will also conclude for greater attention to governance strategies that do not depend on claims and aspirations to control. Again, some practical implications will be discussed relating to resilience rather than stability in energy systems and transformation rather than deterministic transition. In all these respects, a concrete energy policy strategy that repeatedly comes to the fore is that of deliberate diversification.
  • From Risk Regulation to Innovation Democracy: precaution, participation and the pluralising of progress

    1. 1. From Risk Regulation to Innovation Democracy: precaution, participation and the pluralising of progress www.steps-centre.org/ www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/ www.multicriteria-mapping.org www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513 Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre University of Sussex presentation to workshop on ‘responding to risks a key to dealing with socio‐ ‐ ecological challenges’, Institut für Regional- und Umweltwirtschaft, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, 23rd June 2014
    2. 2. ‘Sound Science’ in ‘Risk Management’ chemicals: “ …sound science will be the basis of the Commission's legislative proposal…” Philippe Busquin GM food “… this government's approach is to make decisions … on the basis of sound science” Tony Blair energy: “cool-headed, evidence based assessment … sweep away historic prejudice and put in its place evidence and science”Malcolm Wicks Pressures for ‘justification’ (Collingridge) and ‘blame management’ (Hood) ‘Risk’ ‘decisions’ need ‘objective science’ and ‘evidence based policy’ nuclear “needs ... a properly objective and science- weapons: based decision” Peter Kilfoyle
    3. 3. The Precautionary Principle “Where an activity raises threats of harm to the environment or human health, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically.” Wingspread, 1998 “The precautionary principle applies where scientific evidence is insufficient, inconclusive or uncertain and preliminary scientific evaluation indicates that there are reasonable grounds for concern that the potentially dangerous effects on the environment, human, animal or plant health may be inconsistent with the high level of protection chosen by the EU” EU, 2000 Ambiguous as a definitive prescriptive ‘decision rule’ threat? seriousness? irreversibility? full scientific certainty? cost-effective? Arbitrary in global legal processes: climate, chemicals, GMOs, biodiversity, trade Non-operational and incapable of meeting political needs for justification (eg: simple neat numerical values given by for risk and cost-benefit, analysis) Compared with ‘science based’ risk assessment, seems “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
    4. 4. The Precautionary Principle Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason… - stifles discovery (Holm), limits innovation (Sunstein); “kills green revolution” (AEI) - quest for “zero risk” (Majone) is irrational (Sunstein) sign of “unreason" (Taverne) - “arbitrary & capricious” (Marchant); ;“spreads fear” (O’Neill); like “chemophobia” (AEI) “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
    5. 5. The Precautionary Principle Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason… - ‘no basis’ for policy (Peterson); “dangerous” (Graham); “harms society” (O’Neill) - “battle between science and ideology”…about “religion” (Charnley) - needs countering by new “proactionary” (More) and “innovation” principles (Bayer) “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
    6. 6. “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration The Precautionary Principle “If there is a threat of harm, which is uncertain, then some kind of action should be taken.” Aldred, 2013 …or uncertainty requires deliberation about action - Reminds that ‘science based’ methods don’t reduce intractability of uncertainty - Rejects ‘evidence based policy’ as unique basis for action under uncertainty - Affirms essential need for deliberation, participation, accountability, democracy Like any principle, not in itself a definitive decision rule, but a key to a process:
    7. 7. Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… The Poverty of Risk Discourse
    8. 8. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high nuclear power The Poverty of Risk Discourse Conventional regulatory risk analysis asks simply: - is this safe? - safe enough? - tolerable? Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
    9. 9. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high nuclear power The Poverty of Risk Discourse Where comparisons made, selective and circumscribed Appear to deliver clear, objective distinctions Contrast emotive subjectivity of precaution or participation? coal power Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
    10. 10. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high coal oil gas nuclear hydro wind solar biomass The Poverty of Risk Discourse In a single particular study: ‘sound scientific’, ‘evidence based’ risk discourse implies clear orderings of choices bysimple scalar numbers Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
    11. 11. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 coal oil gas nuclear hydro 21 wind solar biomass n = ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005) minimum maximum25% 75% low RISK high The Poverty of Risk Discourse but ‘objective’ peer-reviewed data typically varies radically Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
    12. 12. coal oil gas nuclear hydro 36 20 wind 18 solar 11 biomass 22 31 21 16 n = The Poverty of Risk Discourse …‘evidence based’ risk literatures can be used to justify any choice Tho’ concealed, the same is often true for all options Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
    13. 13. transportmaterialscomputingmilitaryroboticssynthetic biology “we'll restore science to its rightful place”… “Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” “One can not impede scientific progress.”” …“history is a race to advance technology” PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE Lisbon Strategy: “pro- innovation action” for “Innovation Union” “… the Government’s strategy is pro-innovation” “strives to stay in the race” ”“give technology the status it deserves” The Myth of One-Track Progress Why are do we tolerate such narrow understandings of risk?
    14. 14. PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE synthetic biology “we'll restore science to its rightful place”… “Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” “One can not impede scientific progress.”” Innovation studies also emphasises linearity: - advance (Nelson) - diffusion (Rogers) - early movers (Teece) - first moving (Lieberman) - catching up (Santangelo) - latecomers (Tellis) - forging ahead (Abramowicz) - leapfrogging (Brezis) So even academic analysis restricts attention to: how much? how fast? what risk? who leads? Misses out: which way? what alternatives? says who ? why? The Myth of One-Track Progress
    15. 15. carbon capture grassroots innovation behaviour change distributed renewables market reform nuclear power new eco-cities centralised renewables Pathways to ‘Sustainable Energy’ History, economics, social science, philosophy, politics, show divergent branching infrastructure innovation trajectories eg: alternative infrastructures for ‘the’ zero carbon transition … … alternatives are matters for political, not managerial, institutions
    16. 16. social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03) studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05) Social choices get politically closed down carbon capturebehaviour change distributed renewables market reform nuclear power centralised renewables eg: alternative infrastructures for ‘the’ zero carbon transition … Pathways to ‘Sustainable Energy’
    17. 17. history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83) path-dependence (David, 85) path creation (Karnoe, 01) carbon capturebehaviour change nuclear power centralised renewables eg: alternative infrastructures for ‘the’ zero carbon transition … Pathways to ‘Sustainable Energy’ Social choices get politically closed down
    18. 18. philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91) /politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02) carbon capturenuclear power eg: alternative infrastructures for ‘the’ zero carbon transition … Pathways to ‘Sustainable Energy’ Social choices get politically closed down
    19. 19. economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi, 82) nuclear power eg: alternative infrastructures for ‘the’ zero carbon transition … Pathways to ‘Sustainable Energy’ Social choices get politically closed down
    20. 20. Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions to means: detailed regulation of modalities Not all that is scientifically realistic, technically practicable, economically feasible, socially viable, will be historically realisable eg: alternative infrastructures for ‘the’ zero carbon transition … nuclear power Pathways to ‘Sustainable Energy’
    21. 21. Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions to means: detailed regulation of modalities “We have no alternative to nuclear power … Nuclear because: “We need to do everything… “We need to keep the nuclear option open” ‘Elite’ ‘green’ “no alternatives” rhetoric also miss the politics of direction focus on “tolerability” of incumbent path… not uncertain choice Risk Debate Closes Down Social Choice nuclear power
    22. 22. Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions to means: detailed regulation of modalities increasing visible in high-level ‘planetary management’ discourse “…the non-negotiable planetary preconditions that humanity needs to respect… ‘Anthropocene’ ‘planetary boundaries’ and ‘control variables’ define: …fear of “catastrophe” …is “non negotiable” …with “absolutely no uncertainty” … brooking “no compromise” “Sustainability” as an ‘Apolitical’ Control Agenda But … gravity and urgency do not negate uncertainty, politics, democratic choice
    23. 23. unproblematic knowledge about likelihoods RISK UNCERTAINTY open dynamic systems low frequency events human factors changing contexts problematic Sustainability increasingly uses language of ‘evidence based policy’ Deliberating about Uncertainty - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ...
    24. 24. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY INCERTITUDE Sustainability increasingly uses language of ‘evidence based policy’ Deliberating about Uncertainty what is benefit or harm? how fair? which alternatives? whose values and societies? - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ...
    25. 25. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE novel agents or vectors surprising conditions new alternatives wilful blinkers INCERTITUDE Sustainability increasingly uses language of ‘evidence based policy’ Deliberating about Uncertainty - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ...
    26. 26. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY aggregative analysis patronage, pressure political closure insurance limits reductive models stochastic reasoning ` science-based policy institutional remits political culture liability protection harm definitions indicators / metrics IGNORANCE risk focus is shaped by power – Beck’s “organised irresponsibility” Power Closes Down Risk Discourse
    27. 27. CONTROL RISK ` Climate Change fixations with risk and control easily lead to geoengineering… ACKNOWLEDGE INCERTITUDE thropocene domination’ ‘fear of catastrophe’ ‘planetary management’ ‘non-negotiable’ ‘control variables’ absolutely no uncertainty’ ‘no compromise’
    28. 28. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE aggregated probabilities optimisation algorithms synthetic decision trees Delphi / Foresight predictive modelling precautionary appraisal ‘opens up’ appreciations of incertitude Practical Cinderella Methods
    29. 29. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY aggregated probabilities optimisation algorithms synthetic decision trees Delphi / Foresight predictive modelling burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing knowledge about possibilities precautionary appraisal ‘opens up’ appreciations of incertitude Practical Cinderella Methods
    30. 30. scenarios / backcasting interactive modelling mapping / Q-methods participatory deliberation democratic procedures unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing knowledge about possibilities aggregated probabilities optimisation algorithms synthetic decision trees Delphi / Foresight predictive modelling precautionary appraisal ‘opens up’ appreciations of incertitude Practical Cinderella Methods
    31. 31. unproblematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK knowledge about possibilities responsive civic research curiosity monitoring, evidentiary presumptions flexibility, reversibility diversity, resilience, agility, adaptability scenarios / backcasting interactive modelling mapping / Q-methods participatory deliberation democratic procedures problematic UNCERTAINTY aggregated probabilities optimisation algorithms synthetic decision trees Delphi / Foresight predictive modelling precautionary appraisal ‘opens up’ appreciations of incertitude burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing Practical Cinderella Methods
    32. 32. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods precautionary appraisal participatory deliberation definitive prevention RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE knowledge about possibilities Options Options humility adaptive learning sustainability safety ‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives reflexivity politics Practical Cinderella Methods
    33. 33. Mapping Discursive Diversity Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise Analysis of 12 UK government GM advisors (2001) organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3
    34. 34. UK Government ecology chair organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 UK Government safety chair GM industry research executive Green NGO scientist Acknowledging assumptions, values, uncertainties ‘plural & conditional’ approach is rigorous & democratic offers basis for Dryzek and Niemeyer’s ‘meta-consensus’ Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise Mapping Discursive Diversity
    35. 35. temporality of dynamics – are ‘disturbances’ envisaged as: shocks (transitory disturbance to otherwise continuous trajectory) time driver of change quality level food: - supply bottlenecks - price spikes floods - severe rain episodes magnitude From Knowledge to Action (Precaution: ‘uncertainty requires deliberation about action’)
    36. 36. shocks food: - market trends - resource depletion floods: - higher rainfall climate temporality of dynamics – are ‘disturbances’ envisaged as: driver of change quality level stresses (pressure for enduring disturbance to orientation of trajectory) From Knowledge to Action
    37. 37. shocks control food: - mandate supply chains - regulate prices floods: - water flow management style of action – do interventions aim at: driver of change quality level From Knowledge to Action
    38. 38. shocks control food: - market structuring - resource substitutions floods: - engineered defence style of action – do interventions aim at: driver of change quality level stresses From Knowledge to Action
    39. 39. response food: - agile supply chains - price elasticity floods: - retrofit flood resistance driver of change quality level 2: style of action – do interventions aim at: shocks From Knowledge to Action
    40. 40. response food: - foresighted institutions - diverse dependencies floods: - managed retreat driver of change quality level shocks stresses 2: style of action – do interventions aim at: From Knowledge to Action
    41. 41. shock (transitory disturbance) stress (enduring disturbance) control (tractable drivers) respond (intractable drivers) temporality of change style of action Distinguishing Properties of Sustainability
    42. 42. shock (transitory disturbance) stress (enduring disturbance) control (tractable drivers) respond (intractable drivers) temporality of change style of action STABILITY DURABILITY RESILIENCE ROBUSTNESS Distinguishing Properties of Sustainability
    43. 43. STABILITY DURABILITY RESILIENCE ROBUSTNESS SUSTAINABILIT Y temporality of change style of action Distinguishing Properties of Sustainability shock (transitory disturbance) stress (enduring disturbance) control (tractable drivers) respond (intractable drivers)
    44. 44. stability durability resilience robustness clear conditions for diverse strategies From Sustaining …
    45. 45. stability durability resilience robustness shock ess control response sustain change clear conditions for diverse strategies From Sustaining … to transforming
    46. 46. stability durability resilience robustness sustain change transruption shock stress control response take advantage of shock to control a specific change eg: UK government and coal power in 1980s; UK nuclear and renewables in 2010s From Sustaining … to transforming
    47. 47. transition stability durability resilience robustness shock stress control response harness stress as an opportunity for controlling towards a particular change eg: Netherlands Energie Transitie to low carbon in 2000s transruption sustain change From Knowledge to Action
    48. 48. transition transilience stability durability resilience robustness shock stress control response shocks present a chance for responsive actions to steer away from status quo eg: Greenpeace et al move to campaign against nuclear power after Chernobyl, 1986 transruption sustain change From Knowledge to Action
    49. 49. transition transilience transformation stability durability resilience shock stress control response stress offers a pressure to help responsive actions steer away from status quo eg: grassroots civil society mobilisation on climate change ‘peak oil’, 2000s transruption sustain change From Knowledge to Action
    50. 50. transition transilience transformation stability durability resilience robustness shock stress control response transruption sustain change clear conditions for diverse policy repertoires for maintaining sustainability and transforming unsustainabiltiy From Knowledge to Action
    51. 51. transition transilience transformation stability durability resilience robustness shock stress control response transruption sustain change Sustainability governance: civil society is crucial pathways are political quality through democracy From Knowledge to Action
    52. 52. technological ‘lock-in’ institutionalised technical risk assessment multiple feasible Innovation trajectories restricted appreciation knowledge economy ‘closed down’ politics POSSIBLE PATHWAYS presumed benefits case-by-case focus narrow remits aggregated attention regulatory capture technocratic procedures risk narrow practices Options $ IIIIII privileged trajectories single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ / most ‘legitimate’ decisions € Towards Innovation Democracy prevailing ‘risk regulation’ or ‘transition management’ model
    53. 53. reconciles: science and democracy: neither ‘no alternative’ nor ‘anything goes’ IIIIII $ IIIIII $ IIIIIIIIIIII $ POSSIBLE PATHWAYS diverse pathways innovation democracy “broaden out” inputs to appraisal “open up” space for politics “plural conditionality” “meta-consensus” accountability robustness Sustainability      Options choice discourse        more options, issues, uncertainties, perspectives “letting go” diversity experiment tools and practices for ‘broadening out’ , ‘opening up’ and ‘letting go’ Towards Innovation Democracy
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×