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Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity and transformation
 

Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity and transformation

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Andy Stirling, co-director of the STEPS Centre, talks about the Centre's appproach to sustainable energy for development issues at the Low Carbon Energy for Development Network's second international ...

Andy Stirling, co-director of the STEPS Centre, talks about the Centre's appproach to sustainable energy for development issues at the Low Carbon Energy for Development Network's second international conference at the University of Sussex, September 2012

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Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity and transformation  Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity and transformation Presentation Transcript

  • Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity and transformation presentation to conference of Low Carbon Energy for Development Network on Transitions to low carbon energy systems: which pathways to energy access for all?, University of Sussex, 10th September 2012 Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre
  • One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation“you can’t stop progress” … - The Economist PROGRESS“well restore science to its rightful place”… ` - President Obama“Our hope … relies on scientific andtechnological progress” - Premier Wen Jiabao“One can not impede scientific progress.” - President Ahmadinejad TECHNOLOGYall innovation is progress… Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action” - EU Council of Ministers “we need more pro-innovation policies” - PM Gordon Brown “… the Government’s strategy is … pro-innovation” - PM David Cameron
  • One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation PROGRESS TECHNOLOGYLord Alec Broers, President, RAEng The challenge of government: …“history is a race to “to strive to stay advance technology” in the race”…Technology: The role of the public: “will determine the future “to give technology of the human race’” the status it deserves”…
  • Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGYTreats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … noalternatives… no politics … no choice!
  • Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGYTreats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice !Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast? … who leads?
  • Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGYTreats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice !Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast?’ … who leads?Seriously neglects questions over: which way? …what alternatives? says who? …why?
  • The Energy Transition?
  • Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways“low carbon energy”Not all that is conceivable, feasible, viable – will be fully realisable
  • Multiple Transformations; Many PathwaysIntended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathwayssocial shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03)studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)
  • Multiple Transformations; Many PathwaysIntended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathwayshistory: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83) path-dependence (David, 85) path creation(Karnoe, 01)
  • Multiple Transformations; Many PathwaysIntended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathwaysphilosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91)/politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02)
  • Multiple Transformations; Many PathwaysIntended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathwayseconomics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi,82)
  • Politics within Knowledge material and social realities What is sustainable energy?
  • A ‘STEPS view’ stylised representation material and social realities ‘sustainability’ ‘energy system’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ ‘cause’
  • A ‘STEPS view’reflexive framing stylised representation material and social realities ‘sustainability’ environment ‘energy system’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ local people ‘cause’
  • A ‘STEPS view’plural intentions diverse pictures material and social realities ‘sustainability’ environment ‘energy system’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ nt rnme ‘cause’ gove local people
  • A ‘STEPS view’plural intentions diverse pictures material and social realities ‘sustainability’ c emi ‘energy system’ ad ac ‘system’ ‘effect’ nt rnme ‘cause’ gove local people
  • A ‘STEPS view’plural intentions diverse pictures material and social realities ess ‘sustainability’ environment s in bu c mi de ‘system’ aca “SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PATHWAY” ‘cause’ nt rnme ‘effect’ gove local people time
  • A ‘STEPS view’ CONTEXTS interacting processes subjects and objects social and physical agencies and structures discourses expectationsimaginations values intentions “SUSTAINABLE ‘system’ ENERGY PATHWAY” material world institutions practices interests technologies ecologiespower relations a self-reinforcing trajectory of change time
  • Ambiguous Sustainabilitytypical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture…
  • Ambiguous Sustainabilitytypical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture…coaloilgasnuclearhydrowindsolarbiomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low SUSTAINABILITY high externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
  • Ambiguous Sustainabilitytypical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture… n=coaloilgas minimum 25% 75% maximumnuclear 2hydrowindsolarbiomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low SUSTAINABILITY high ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
  • Ambiguous Sustainabilitytypical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture… n=coal 36oil 20gas 31nuclear 21hydro 16wind 18solar 11biomass 22 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low SUSTAINABILITY high ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
  • Ambiguous Sustainabilityan indicative STEPS approach… (MCM, deliberation,Q- / ethno-methods) deliberate reasonscoal - scenariosoil - values - uncertaiintiesgas - winners / losers - assumptionsnuclear - expectationshydro - irreversibilities …etcwindsolarbiomass ‘plural and conditional’ exploration of framings low SUSTAINABILITY high NGO industry academic
  • Ambiguous Sustainabilityan indicative STEPS approach… (MCM, deliberation,Q- / ethno-methods) deliberate reasonscoal - scenariosoil - values - uncertaiintiesgas - winners / losers - assumptionsnuclear - expectationshydro - irreversibilities …etcwindsolarbiomass ‘plural and conditional’ exploration of framings low SUSTAINABILITY high N i academic
  • Direction, Distribution … and Diversity…Focus directly on diversity in ‘social innovation’ for sustainable energy offshore wave large tidal barrage marine / hydro renewables tidal stream shoreline wave hydro offshore wind geothermal solar PV terrestrial wind (micro) non-combustion renewables terrestrial wind (large) nuclear nuclear municipal waste landfill gas coal + CCS coal combustion renewables and biomass regional fossil fuelsgas CCGT + CCS - Norway gas CCGT + CCS - UKCS gas CCGT - Norway gas CCGT – UKCS oil gas CCGT – LNG fossil fuels with carbon capture gas CCGT – continental d
  • Direction, Distribution … and Diversity…Focus directly on diversity in ‘social innovation’ for sustainable energy offshore wave large tidal barrage marine / hydro renewables tidal stream shoreline wave hydro offshore wind geothermal solar PV non-combustion terrestrial wind (micro) renewables terrestrial wind (large) nuclear nuclear municipal waste landfill gas coal + CCS coal combustion renewables biomass and regional fossil fuelsgas CCGT + CCS - Norway gas CCGT + CCS - UKCS gas CCGT - Norway gas CCGT – UKCS oil gas CCGT – LNG fossil fuels with carbon capture gas CCGT – continental d
  • Direction, Distribution … and Diversity…Spaces and tools for analysing and deliberating the “3Ds”
  • ‘Closing Down’ ‘Sustainable Transitions’ privileged POSSIBLE power reinforces visions pressures for ‘lock-in’ innovation union PATHWAYS knowledge economy multiple feasible Innovation trajectories IIIIII € $ power ‘closes down’power ‘narrows in’ expert outputs to policyinputs to appraisal analysis institutionalised pressures for justificationpresumed visions force unitary ‘‘expert’ Options technical risknarrow perspectives assessment prescriptionsaggregated attention single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ /regulatory capture Sustainability most ‘legitimate’technocratic procedures decisions / transitions
  • ‘Opening Up’ Democratic Transformations: plural energy sustainabilities POSSIBLE diverse diversity in technology knowledge portfolios innovation union PATHWAYS pathways democracy knowledge economy    IIIIII IIIIII   help catalyse: $ $   democratic accountability   context sensitivity   social robustness broad-based ‘opening up’ politics ofevidence as choice choice expert sustainable energy discourse analysisinclusive participation ‘transition’ depends on:broad transdisciplinary contexts, perspectives, Optionsnotions of sustainability sensitivities, scenarios, - ‘plural and conditional’multiple priorities public policy adviceuncertainties Sustainabilitydiverse possible pathways