www.cccep.ac.uk<br />Closing the Loop: Climate Science, Development Practice & Policy Interactions in Dryland Agro-Ecologi...
Aims <br />CCCEP ‘Closing the Loop’ Work Package Aims of –<br /><ul><li>Integration of quantitative vulnerability analysis...
 Better linking of scientific & local-level knowledge perspectives into adaptation policy / decision-making
 Comparison of local & scientific understandings of climate change & risk management as guide on need for local level moni...
Vulnerability Framework<br />Fraser 2007, Climatic Change, 83(4)<br />
Exposure – Impact - Adaptation<br />COUNTRY +               REGIONAL                        FIELD<br />Spatial scale<br />...
Closing loops - Tools<br />COUNTRY +               REGIONAL                    FIELD<br />Spatial scale<br />CENTURY<br />...
Identifying sensitivity to drought <br />Sensitive<br />Crop Failure Index<br />Minor crop loss         Major crop loss   ...
2. Interview experts or stakeholders to establish a narrative that explains the system <br />3. Analyse narrative using a ...
Example Case Study: Kalahari Rangelands<br />
Pastoral Botswana<br />
Bush Encroached System <br />
Reed & Dougill, 2010. JAE, 74(1), 149-155 <br />
Market growth<br />Government policy to privatize land<br />More private land<br />-<br />Income<br />Ability to move cows...
Model quantification post 3 expert focus groups with follow-up’s to discuss & show – linked to village level livestock no’...
The effect of “Agricultural Best Management” scenario to help reduce impact of climate change<br />2.5<br />2<br />1.5<br ...
Pro-poor land reform scenario<br />Private herd<br />Land reform<br />A significant drop<br />Land reform<br />Communal he...
Implications of this model<br />Enacting pro-poor land reform is more effective at helping communal farmers maintain incom...
Benefits of Process at Multiple Scales Across Diverse Case Studies<br />Participatory processes at local level led to deci...
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Andy Dougill - Closing the loop - climate science development practice and policy interactions in dryland agro-ecological systems

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Presentation at the STEPS Conference 2010 - Pathways to Sustainability: Agendas for a new politics of environment, development and social justice

http://www.steps-centre.org/events/stepsconference2010.html

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  • The special issue aims to conduct a structured comparison of how livelihood systems in different dryland regions are changing in their vulnerability to climate change.  Each manuscript uses an analytical framework that combines an assessment of the capacity of agro-ecosystems to remain productive during an environmental problem, with an evaluation of the capacity of individuals within the livelihood system to adapt, and an exploration of institutional capacity to respond to environmental crises.  By doing so the special issue will make both an empirical and a theoretical contribution to vulnerability research. 
  • Andy Dougill - Closing the loop - climate science development practice and policy interactions in dryland agro-ecological systems

    1. 1. www.cccep.ac.uk<br />Closing the Loop: Climate Science, Development Practice & Policy Interactions in Dryland Agro-Ecological Systems<br />Andy Dougill, Evan Fraser, Claire Quinn, Lindsay Stringer & Chasca Twyman<br />
    2. 2. Aims <br />CCCEP ‘Closing the Loop’ Work Package Aims of –<br /><ul><li>Integration of quantitative vulnerability analysis with participatory research to assess vulnerability pathways
    3. 3. Better linking of scientific & local-level knowledge perspectives into adaptation policy / decision-making
    4. 4. Comparison of local & scientific understandings of climate change & risk management as guide on need for local level monitoring to ‘close the loop’ in forward planning</li></li></ul><li>Case Study Analyses<br />1. Ecology & Society Special feature ‘Resilience and Vulnerability of Arid and Semi-Arid Social Ecological Systems’ with 8 case study papers (Niger, Botswana x2, South Africa, Mali, Ghana, Spain, Nicaragua) – Dougill et al., 2010 on-line<br />Reflection on value of participatory dynamic systems modelling approaches with range of qualitative – quantitative case study perspectives<br />2. Farming systems research assessing drought-coping strategies & cropping choice adaptations in rural Malawi, Botswana & Ghana<br />
    5. 5. Vulnerability Framework<br />Fraser 2007, Climatic Change, 83(4)<br />
    6. 6. Exposure – Impact - Adaptation<br />COUNTRY + REGIONAL FIELD<br />Spatial scale<br />CENTURY<br />DECADE<br />SEASON<br />FOOD SUPPLY<br />Crop-Climate Models<br />Temporal scale<br />FOOD DISTRIBUTION<br />Economic models<br />Statistical models<br />ACCESS TO INPUTS/FOOD<br />Agent-Based Mod<br />Decision Model<br />PRA<br />
    7. 7. Closing loops - Tools<br />COUNTRY + REGIONAL FIELD<br />Spatial scale<br />CENTURY<br />DECADE<br />SEASON<br />Large-area crop models + <br />climate / <br />climate change simulations<br />Temporal scale<br /> Statistical methods to ID socio-economic characteristics<br />Participatory <br />methods to ID adaptation strategies<br />
    8. 8. Identifying sensitivity to drought <br />Sensitive<br />Crop Failure Index<br />Minor crop loss Major crop loss <br />Increasing vulnerability<br />Resilient<br />Minor drought Major drought<br />Drought Index<br />See Simelton et al., 2009. Env Sci & Policy, 12, 438 -452. <br />
    9. 9. 2. Interview experts or stakeholders to establish a narrative that explains the system <br />3. Analyse narrative using a flow chart or “mind map” <br />4. Reflect & make policy / practice recommendations <br />Conventional social sciences<br />Quantitative modelling<br />5. Explore each relationship within the system through expert focus groups to quantify whether relationships are linear or non-linear, their slope etc.<br />6. Run different simulations of the model to explore scenarios <br />1. Establish problem and boundaries of agro-ecosystem <br />
    10. 10. Example Case Study: Kalahari Rangelands<br />
    11. 11. Pastoral Botswana<br />
    12. 12. Bush Encroached System <br />
    13. 13. Reed & Dougill, 2010. JAE, 74(1), 149-155 <br />
    14. 14. Market growth<br />Government policy to privatize land<br />More private land<br />-<br />Income<br />Ability to move cows to neighbour<br />Imported feed<br />Rainfall<br />Forage<br />Establishing bore holes<br />-<br />Number of cows<br />Bush encroachment<br />Increased grazing densities<br />From 8 researcher & policy-maker interviews post environmental & participatory projects – linked to development of rangeland management guides<br />
    15. 15. Model quantification post 3 expert focus groups with follow-up’s to discuss & show – linked to village level livestock no’s <br />
    16. 16. The effect of “Agricultural Best Management” scenario to help reduce impact of climate change<br />2.5<br />2<br />1.5<br />1<br />0.5<br />0<br />1<br />4<br />7<br />10<br />13<br />16<br />19<br />22<br />25<br />28<br />31<br />34<br />37<br />40<br />43<br />46<br />49<br />52<br />55<br />58<br />61<br />64<br />67<br />70<br />73<br />76<br />79<br />82<br />85<br />88<br />91<br />94<br />Limited change<br />Private herd<br />Best Management<br />A significant rise<br />Baseline<br />Relative Value<br />Communal herd<br />Best Management<br />Baseline<br />Time in “Model Iterations” ~ years<br />
    17. 17. Pro-poor land reform scenario<br />Private herd<br />Land reform<br />A significant drop<br />Land reform<br />Communal herd<br />Relative Value<br />Land reform<br />A significant rise<br />Baseline<br />Time in “Model Iterations” ~ years<br />
    18. 18. Implications of this model<br />Enacting pro-poor land reform is more effective at helping communal farmers maintain incomes in light of climate change than promoting agricultural best management<br />Privatisation retains maximum national-level herd size though inequitable distribution<br />Outputs of model used to stimulate discussion & to guide local-level field research <br />Best management guides produced & their value to be quantified<br />
    19. 19. Benefits of Process at Multiple Scales Across Diverse Case Studies<br />Participatory processes at local level led to decision-making tools & actions, but also fed into District & National scale modelled generalisations <br />Explanatory narratives can give explanation & provide situated accounts of relationships between livelihoods, ecosystem services and policies<br />Storylines (& no’s) aim to stimulate, provoke & communicate vision of possible futures. The process leads to learning & interpretation of greater value than predictions produced<br />Natural angst in quantification leads to dangers in communications on key policy interventions identified<br />
    20. 20. Conclusions<br /><ul><li>Whilst a tension exists between scientific & participatory knowledges, communication and dialogue between these approaches has benefits and explicit resolution not essential
    21. 21. Process of narratives into models helps policy-makers to better understand system dynamics and complexity, though uncertainties in developing to predictive models (=> use as ‘throw-away’ models)
    22. 22. Consistent simplified framing of vulnerability proved appropriate across range of approaches & case studies => can bring insights across multiple scales</li></ul>www.cccep.ac.uk<br />

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