Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The future of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa Andy Catley Septemb...
Dominant narratives, 2010 <ul><li>‘ Pastoralism in crisis’  (again) </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Unprecedented evidence that climat...
History lessons <ul><li>Pastoralist areas rarely absorb excess people. Excess people are ‘sloughed off’ - pushed out of pa...
Trend analysis, from 1922 <ul><li>Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Human population – doubling every 25-35 years </li></ul><ul><l...
Trends – Somaliland, 1922 to 2009
Policy implications <ul><li>‘ Livestock exports for poverty reduction’,  but benefits mainly wealthier herders, traders et...
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Andy Catley: Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The future of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa

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Presentation at the STEPS Conference 2010 - Pathways to Sustainability: Agendas for a new politics of environment, development and social justice

http://www.steps-centre.org/events/stepsconference2010.html

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Andy Catley: Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The future of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa

  1. 1. Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The future of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa Andy Catley September 2010
  2. 2. Dominant narratives, 2010 <ul><li>‘ Pastoralism in crisis’ (again) </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Unprecedented evidence that climate change drives pastoralist vulnerability’ </li></ul><ul><li>Destitution, food aid, safety nets </li></ul><ul><li>The ‘settlement’ narrative (still) – especially government </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict, counter-insurgency, counter terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Quiet narratives, 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Histories of pastoralism elsewhere (N Africa, Middle East) </li></ul><ul><li>Human population growth </li></ul><ul><li>Growing commercialization of livestock production & trade, and benefits by wealth group </li></ul><ul><li>Land policy </li></ul>
  3. 3. History lessons <ul><li>Pastoralist areas rarely absorb excess people. Excess people are ‘sloughed off’ - pushed out of pastoralism and pastoralist areas </li></ul><ul><li>Commercialization and shifting livestock ownership from poor to rich </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Especially ‘high export’ areas (Somalia, parts of Ethiopia and Sudan) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Displacement processes e.g. Somali central rangeland, from 1980s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Declining access to rangeland e.g. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Private enclosure </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Commercial (subsidized) irrigation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bush encroachment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Farmers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Pastoralism survives in a more commercialized form – larger herds (units) owed by fewer people cf. trends in agriculture elsewhere </li></ul>
  4. 4. Trend analysis, from 1922 <ul><li>Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Human population – doubling every 25-35 years </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing access to productive rangeland </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- bush encroachment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>cultivation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>internal borders </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Commercialization of pastoralism – livestock assets from poor to wealthier groups </li></ul><ul><li>Outcomes Increasing impact of dry seasons and drought </li></ul><ul><li>Constants </li></ul><ul><li>Rainfall variability </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict </li></ul>Land policies People moving up People moving out
  5. 5. Trends – Somaliland, 1922 to 2009
  6. 6. Policy implications <ul><li>‘ Livestock exports for poverty reduction’, but benefits mainly wealthier herders, traders etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Safety nets and the economic logic of retaining increasing numbers of destitute/poor in drylands </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Alternative livelihoods’ for a few, but limited non-livestock economic opportunities for most </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul>
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