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  • 1. @all studying the #Twitter phenomenon December 2009
  • 2. This work is licensed by faberNovel and L’Atelier under the Creative Commons to allow for further contributions by other specialists and web users in the coming months. To view a copy of this Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike3.0 Unported license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 1712nd Street, Suite300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 2
  • 3. Comment this study To comment the study, tag your messages with: #Twitterstudy To watch the live presentation, go to: talk.fabernovel.com ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 3
  • 4. Summary • What is Twitter? • What do people do with Twitter? • Why did Twitter grow so fast? • What business model for Twitter? • Who could challenge Twitter? • Conclusion ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 4
  • 5. Meet the tweet A tweet is a text-based message up to 140 characters automatically delivered to the author’s followers. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 5
  • 6. You follow people you your friend Following someone means you get their tweets as soon as they post them. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 6
  • 7. And people follow you a huge fan of yours you your friend Your followers get your tweets in real-time : you become a media. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 7
  • 8. By default, everything is public on Twitter Unlike Facebook, you usually don’t have to know someone to have a full access to their tweets. Twitter is a huge base of public data. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 8
  • 9. Twitter interface : simple and elegant What’s happening for you? Write your tweet here you What’s happening for your followers? You can read that here ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 9
  • 10. To define what Twitter is, let’s see what Twitter isn’t Twitter is not a: Is Twitter a blog The number of characters of a post is unlimited. One tweet is limited to 140 prints. Twitter is not a blog sms You can send both a tweet an a SMS from your mobile phone. But the tweet is posted on the Internet, and is public. # Micro-blogging service? # Public SMS platform? Twitter is not a SMS social network In a social network, your profile is private. In Twitter, everybody can follow you, you can follow everybody, and your profile is public. # Public social network? Twitter is not a social network chat A chat conversation is private, a Twitter conversation is public Twitter is not a chat # Public chat? Twitter is the SMS of internet era. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 10
  • 11. Summary • What is Twitter? • What do people do with Twitter? • Why did Twitter grow so fast? • What business model for Twitter? • Who could challenge Twitter? • Conclusion ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 11
  • 12. Reputation: Twitter in France Dear French Internet user, do you know... Yes : 60% Yes : 4% Yes : 1% ..……. Source : pour L’Atelier Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 12
  • 13. Reputation: Twitter in France Incredible growth ! % % % % % % % ..……. Source : pour L’Atelier Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 13
  • 14. Usages: Twitter in France Percentage of Twitter members within our «aware internet users» ? 9% ..……. Source : pour L’Atelier Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 14
  • 15. Reputation: Twitter in France Who knows Twitter in France? ..……. Source : pour L’Atelier Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 15
  • 16. Usages: Twitter in France Who is the French Twitter user ? ..……. Source : pour L’Atelier Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 16
  • 17. Usages: Twitter in France What publication client/device do you use ? 30% 39% Twitter.com PC / Mac client 31% Smartphone client Source : Poll launched by L’Atelier on twtpoll.com – november 2009 ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 17
  • 18. Usages: Twitter in France Tweeting, yes, but for what ideal purposes ? 65% 69% 40% Creating and sharing a friend network Having good deals & coupons Recruiting an employee ..……. Source : pour L’Atelier Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 18
  • 19. Usages: Twitter in France Tweeting, yes, but for what real purposes ? 7% 2% 13% 8% 51% 14% Source : Poll launched by L’Atelier on twtpoll.com – november 2009 3% ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 19
  • 20. Usages: Twitter in France Useless? < Twitter < Useful? 63% French Internet users 73% French Twitter members ..……. Source : pour L’Atelier Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 20
  • 21. Who tweets? Individuals Typical user I’m 31 years old, tech-savvy. And I do a lot of things with my phone. But 55% of users haven’t posted any tweet on their account! Star Ashton Kutcher (aplusk) was the first Twitter account to reach 1 M followers And he chats with Demi Moore... Blogger Pete Cashmore (mashable) has 1 M followers Mashable is a famous blog about social media Politician Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet frequently uses Twitter Minister of Forward Planning, Assessment of Public Policies and Development of the Digital Economy in the French government, ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 21
  • 22. Who tweets? Companies & public institutions Media CNN and the New York Times are among the first 20 most followed Twitter accounts. But...Ashton Kutcher has more followers than CNN! High-tech companies Google tweets to inform, Dell tweets to sell. Other companies The majority of Fortune 100 companies don’t really get Twitter. 50% of the Twitter accounts of Fortune 100 companies have less than 500 followers Public Insitutions The White House, l’Elysée communicate via Twitter. L’Elysée plans to tweet during Copenhagen Climate Conference Twitter users’ are still a minority of tech-savvy people, companies and institutions who have prominent communication needs ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 22
  • 23. What does the average user do with Twitter? Follow and discuss news or live events • 41% of URLs tweeted are news. • A majority of users use Twitter as a news aggregator. Strategic Intelligence • Users follow mainly people who have the same kind of business Gossip • Asthon Kutcher, Britney Spears and Ellen DeGeneres are the 3 most followed Twitter accounts Compared to other communitydriven websites (facebook, MySpace, etc.) Twitter is more business and gossip oriented. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 23
  • 24. What do bloggers do with Twitter? They increase the ranking of their blogs • • Twitter has become one of the main sources of traffic (eg : 10% of TechCrunch traffic ). Being on Twitter increases your Google ranking. They carry on a continuous relationship with their readers •Followers get directly informed when a new post / a new tweet is published. They do “link journalism” Bloggers use Twitter to analyze events in real time Bloggers use Twitter to rapidly pinpoint interesting links Twitter is a way, for bloggers, to explore new editorial areas, mainly “link journalism” & real time analysis ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 24
  • 25. How do companies use Twitter? They monitor in real-time competitors, reputation and improve business intelligence To evaluate consumer satisfaction and take into account their feedback •Crowd sourcing innovation to users (Zakos) •Conducting surveys on existing products (GM) •Gathering feedback on experimental products (Dunkin Donuts) •Customer service (@MicrosoftHelps ) They sell and market their products New sales channel (Dell) New marketing channel (Pizza Hut) Twitter is an efficient marketing tool, both for companies and customers: good knowledge of customers & free marketing opt-in channel ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 25
  • 26. How do public institutions use Twitter? Emergencies Police Eg: @SF-311 for emergencies in SF Eg: West Midlands Police (UK) Governments Eg : Downing Street (UK) Twitter is an efficient communication and reporting tool for public institutions ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 26
  • 27. Who is the most followed on Twitter? Ashton Kutcher 3.9M CNN 2.8M Barack Obama 2.7M Dell Outlet 1.4M TechCrunch 1.1M Number of followers Majority of accounts < 50 Twitter is much more a one-way communication channel than a social media network Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • ..……. 27
  • 28. Twitter usage is similar to wikipedia 90% of the content is produced by 15% of users 90% of the content is produced by 10% of users • More unidirectionnal than peer to peer communication • Few contributors, many readers • A community lead by hyperactive users • Few actual tweople • The more followers you have, the more you tweet A typical power law distribution applies to Twitter content creation ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 28
  • 29. Summary • What is Twitter? • What do people do with Twitter? • Why did Twitter grow so fast? • What business model for Twitter? • Who could challenge Twitter? • Conclusion ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 29
  • 30. What is the history of Twitter? 2006 launch Twitter is publicly launched. 2007 fame Twitter won the “blog price” at SXSW Interactive* 2008 development Twitter raises $22M and opens its API, developers create Twitter applications. 2009 success Twitter raises $35M and has a growth of 1,300% in a year** Twitter’s growth is amazing: in 2009, Twitter is the fastest community driven growing-site. ..……. * South by Southwest Interactive is one of the best festival in the world for creative technologies Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • ** Feb 08- Feb 09 30
  • 31. Twitter benefited from the rise of mobile Internet • The number of US mobile Internet users grew by 170% in two years* • The rise of mobile Internet users was a tremendous accelerator for Twitter • • • The 140-char format is adapted to mobile situations People were already used to SMS People can also tweet and be followed by using SMS. ..……. * Feb 07- Feb 09 (Nielsen) Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 31
  • 32. Thanks to an early adoption by celebrities and media, Twitter reached a big audience rapidly Celebrities Most-followed accounts “ever” : “Twitter star system” and verified accounts have spurred its adoption by a non-geeky audience Media • • • Media coverage on Twitter before other major medias Ideal tool to cover live event in real time difficult to censor Twitter became THE real time news channel Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • ..……. 32
  • 33. As a generic platform, Twitter’s growth has been user-driven API (opened in 2008) developers New uses: #, @, RT, etc. New applications users New functions : RT, lists, etc. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 33
  • 34. A strong community of developers It is very difficult to compete with Twitter, because a new-comer has to create a more powerful network than Twitter’s one. Picture by Thenextweb.Com ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 34
  • 35. What are the prospects for Twitter? By the end of 2009 By the end of 2013 25 million users 1 billion users Q3 2009 : $400 000 Q4 2009 : $4 000 000 $1.54 billion in revenue, $111 million in net earnings How? Whereas Twitter grows very fast, its business model remains unpredictable… ..……. Source: TechCrunch, July 09 Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 35
  • 36. Summary • What is Twitter? • What do people do with Twitter? • Why did Twitter grow so fast? • What business model for Twitter? • Who could challenge Twitter? • Conclusion ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 36
  • 37. Make the bird lay golden eggs: hypothesis for Twitter’s business model Market research Companies pay to do market research on Twitter, Twitter selects the panels and analyses the results Couponing and/or SMS advertising • Ads and/or coupons to opt-in Twitter accounts. • Prospects selected by geolocation or by Twitter Contextual ads (Google Adwords like) Freemium You have to pay to get “pro” access to Twitter Contextual ads on Twitter search and during tweeting ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 37
  • 38. When should Twitter begin to monetize? 1) Now Advantages Risks Twitter has high and short-term financial expectations, Twitter should monetize fast to keep VC happy. Twitter would pay all the testing costs to find the appropriate business model Twitter would acquire a real business experience. Twitter could engage in a wrong business model. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 38
  • 39. When should Twitter begin to monetize? 2) Later Advantages Risks Twitter has such a big community, that it could start its monetization by testing various business models at a small-scale. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 39
  • 40. Summary What is Twitter? What do people do with Twitter? Why did Twitter grow so fast? What business model for Twitter? Who could challenge Twitter? Conclusion ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 40
  • 41. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 41
  • 42. facebook? The ox that wants to be the frog facebook is a giant compared to Twitter 350M users approx 20M users facebook looks more and more like Twitter since the acquisition of friendfeed : facebook wants to go public + = ? ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 42
  • 43. facebook? Twitter competes with facebook on contextual ads, real-time search and CRM Business purposes Personal activities Users are more reluctant to have ads on facebook 20M on Twitter. than users Tweets have a larger public than facebook updates’. Private real-time information Public real-time information More information is available on Twitter than on facebook, making real-time search more accurate. Unless facebook succeeds in becoming public, Twitter has a better position. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 43
  • 44. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 44
  • 45. Google? Twitter & Google cooperate in the field of real time search • Old news • Steady content • The web’s long term memory • Page rank • Real time news • Dynamic content • The web’s short term memory 20M users • Retweet rank ? Need Twitter’s real time content Need access to Twitter firehose to rank tweets Need Google search technology & traffic In October 2009, they reached an agreement to include Twitter content in Google search results Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • ..……. 45
  • 46. Google? pushes initiatives towards a fragmented real-time content market... • Google Wave could become a universal real-time conversation platform • Google will index the whole real-time web thanks to PubSubHubbub, a realtime protocol • In December 2009 Google struck formal partnerships with Facebook, mySpace and Twitter to index their live updates => The new version of the Google search engine, Caffeine, will emphasize real-time search results including tweets, blog items, news articles and social networking updates ...and a monopolistic real-time search market ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 46
  • 47. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 47
  • 48. Spam? A threat for Twitter Spammers use Twitter for two purposes : Tweetomercials Cons Though Twitter is making progress on blocking spam (they introduced a “report spam” function on October), spam could reflect as badly on Twitter as it reflected on Myspace. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 48
  • 49. Other micro-blogging services ? • open source, no character limitation. • belongs to Google => Google didn’t build a large enough community to compete with Twitter •“Niche” market : enterprise microblogging • Has a business model • internal company information => Popular but doesn’t directly compete with Twitter For the time being, no other micro blogging platform is in position to compete with Twitter : Twitter rules them all! ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 49
  • 50. Summary • What is Twitter? • What do people do with Twitter? • Why did Twitter grow so fast? • What business model for Twitter? • Who could challenge Twitter? • Conclusion ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 50
  • 51. Worst case scenario: Twitter may be asphyxiated by competition on all of its potential markets Social Network Information analysis New protocols may enable broadcasting quicker, free and less proprietary realtime content All social networks foster real-time status broadcasting, and compete with Twitter on features and privacy As real-time streams grow from various sources, the real business model may belong to companies able to filter the information. Companies duplicate Twitter interface but specialize efficiently on vertical markets Eg : PubsHubbub protocol as a pushnotification RSS may offer real-time broadcast to all Eg : Facebook as a Twitter based on real-life social network Eg : Google Caffeine as a competitor on real-time search Eg : Yammer creates a B2B Twitter with specific distribution, features and business model Real-time protocol Specialized Business tool By willing to maintain a wide-open “pulse of the world”, Twitter may be overwhelmed by businesses grounded in reality ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 51
  • 52. Best case scenario: Twitter may become.... Real-time protocol The most trusted source for real-time data Social Network Information analysis Specialized Business tool The first mode of communication between individuals Robust platform for analyzing massive amounts of real time data and behavior Ensure customer satisfaction and loyalty, while providing targeted, geolocalized ads Geolocation Services Friend updates Media Contact mgmt Celebrities Social Search $$ $ Real time analytics CRM Human behavior E-commerce Data aggregation Real time feedback $$ $$$ …a standard of real-time information, data, and communication between individuals and businesses. Twitter can be the leading communication platform for commerce and people. ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 52
  • 53. The Innovation Agency faberNovel, founded in 2003, specializes in designing and realizing innovative projects. Based in Paris and San Francisco, faberNovel builds on emerging technologies, methodologies or practices to create new products. faberNovel’s team combines the necessary talents and passion to turn their clients’ wishes into market realities: Idea > concept > prototype > product > success! References: Avis, Groupe Suez, JCDecaux, L’Oréal, Orange, Pages Jaunes, RATP, SFR, SNCF, Vinci, etc. See our strategic studies on: http://www.fabernovel.com/en/analyze/realisation/strategic-studies-and-surveys ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 53
  • 54. Tracking and sharing innovation : since its beginning in 1978 in Paris, L’Atelier has been helping executive committee in such fields as innovation and internet strategy. L'Atelier teams have been actively involved in technology for years, acquiring solid expertise and an impressive network of contacts. Strategic and operational insights from L'Atelier experts have earned a reputation for both vision and provocative thinking. A respected observer of developments in France, L’Atelier opened a San Francisco office in 2006 and one in Shanghai in 2007. http://www.atelier.fr | http://www.atelier-us.com | http://asie.atelier.fr ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 54
  • 55. 17, rue du fbg du Temple 75010 Paris Tél. : +33 1 42 72 20 04 Fax. : +33 1 42 72 20 03 www.fabernovel.com Contact presse: Sabrina Distinguin sabrina.distinguin@fabernovel.com 16 rue de Hanovre 75002 Paris Tél. : +33 1 43 16 92 00 Fax. : +33 1 43 16 91 00 http://www.atelier.fr/ Contact presse Rumeur Publique: Thomas Boullonnois thomas@rumeurpublique.fr ..……. Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 55