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A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access
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A Phased Approach To Orbital Public Access

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Presented at Archachon conference on Space Tourism.

Presented at Archachon conference on Space Tourism.

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  • 1. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS Mark Hempsell University of Bristol, UK
  • 2. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS BAD NEWS: THE INVESTMENT TRAP 0 5 10 YEARS 15 5 Annual Revenue Arbitrary Annual Balance without interest Money 0 Annual Balance with interest Annual Spend -5 ASSUMPTIONS -10 5 Years before operations 10% per annum interest -15 50% operational profit -20 Cumulative Balance -25
  • 3. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS CERTIFICATION To carry the public “reasonable” levels of risk need to be demonstrated. What is “reasonable”? Approaching 1 in million risk of death Only achieved by testing and operational experience. = More cost and more time Realistic certification makes the investment trap even worse. The investment would need to be reduced by two orders of magnitude to break out of the trap.
  • 4. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS SUB-ORBITAL TOURISM Plus Point: Vehicle an order of magnitude lower to acquire than orbital (still higher than many think!). But: (Scaled Composites) Order of magnitude lower ticket price Specialist infrastructure – no other sub-orbit applications The sub-orbital business is on its own
  • 5. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS (Reaction Engines Ltd). Orbital passenger flights are more marketable – higher perceived value But the infrastructure is order of magnitude more expensive An orbital transport infrastructure can service other markets and they can cover the acquisition costs
  • 6. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS A CASE STUDY A Skylon personnel module (Reaction Engines Ltd).
  • 7. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS PERSONNEL MODULE - INITIAL CONFIGURATION Hygiene & ECLSS Docking port Kitchen Cargo space (3 tonnes) Pilot cabin 21 under floor triple CTB bays Ground entry door 4 Passengers (ejector seats up, supine down)
  • 8. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS 15 degree docking port alignment allows rescue missions (Reaction Engines Ltd).
  • 9. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS EARLY OPERATIONS ISS SUPPORT 8 flights a year with half crew rotation with each flight. Annually deliver 32 crew and 24 tonnes of supplies Annual budget of around $300 million ($40 million/flight) + OTHER MISSIONS Another 4 flights?
  • 10. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS After 3 years of initial operations - over 1000 Skylon flights including around 50 personnel delivery Ready for certified public access operations. Needs only the investment to upgrade the Personnel Module (fast and cheap - no investment trap!) To get to this point on a standalone basis would require investment in excess of $20 billion over more than a decade
  • 11. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS PERSONNEL MODULE - FINAL CONFIGURATION Hygiene & ECLSS Docking port Kitchen 4 Long stay Passengers Pilot cabin 21 under floor triple CTB bays Ground entry door 16 short stay Passengers
  • 12. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS SHORT STAY LONG STAY Up to 14 days over 14 days Cost 1 Cost 6 Supine Upright If 100 day tour of duty 4 days up down 4 days up down 6 work days a week Usable days = 10 Usable days = 79 days Cost per day 0.1 Cost per day = 0.076
  • 13. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS ASSUMPTIONS ON LONG TERM OPERATIONS Flights every 14 days to service short stay passengers Long stay passengers return 7 flights later 98 days Cost of a personnel launch is $20 million. Annually 520 passengers - turn over $520 million BUT WHAT MIX OF SHORT AND LONG TERM
  • 14. 600 Total 500 400 Short stay Annual For case study 300 Passengers 200 Long stay 104 long stay/year 100 416 short stay/year 0 160 140 Case 120 In Orbit Study For case study 100 Population Total Assumption 28 long stay 80 Long stay Structure 60 16 short stay 40 20 0 7 6 Seat 5 For case study Price 4 Long stay = $3.0 M $M 3 Short stay = $0.5 M Long stay seat 2 1 Short stay seat 0 0 5 10 15 20 Short Stay (Tourist) Seats per Flight
  • 15. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS CONCLUSIONS Public access operations to orbit can beat the investment trap by using the general space infrastructure. A first generation reusable launcher can evolve from ISS support to public access with seat cost well below $1 million. However the infrastructure developments must incorporate the requirements for public access into the development process.
  • 16. A PHASED APPROACH TO ORBITAL PUBLIC ACCESS THANK YOU (Reaction Engines Ltd)

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