Wintertime PM in Utah <ul><li>Utah’s mountain valleys and wintertime temperature inversions provide ideal conditions for t...
Background <ul><li>The Clean Air Act identifies 6 criteria pollutants (CO, Lead, NO 2 , Ozone,  Particulate Matter , SO 2 ...
Particles Fine Particles lodge deeply into the lungs, and are associated with serious health problems, including heart and...
PM2.5 in Utah <ul><li>Most of Utah’s Wintertime Particulate is Fine Particulate, or PM2.5 </li></ul><ul><li>Most of Utah’s...
Revised NAAQS for PM2.5 <ul><li>EPA revised the NAAQS for PM2.5 in December of 2006   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>24-hr standard...
ug/m3 1974 – 3080 ug/m3 TSP 1987 – 487 ug/m3 TSP 1992 – 267 ug/m3 PM10 2002 – 91.6 ug/m3 PM2.5 Salt Lake Valley Maximum 20...
Monitored levels of PM2.5
Timeline <ul><li>The Clean Air Act lays out a 5-year process from revision of the standard to completion of a State Implem...
PM2.5 Area Designations <ul><li>UDAQ has completed its work on area designations for PM2.5 and the Governor submitted Utah...
Current Status <ul><li>EPA has not published its findings in the Federal Register, meaning: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>there is...
State Implementation Plan <ul><li>Essentially a  3-year process </li></ul><ul><li>Basic Project Phases include: </li></ul>...
Early SIP Work <ul><li>Phase I – Model Validation </li></ul><ul><li>Work is already underway to develop the Air Quality Mo...
CMAQ Modeling Domain <ul><li>Grid-based Regional Scale Model </li></ul><ul><li>Simulates Atmospheric Chemistry & Dispersio...
Emissions Modeled PM 2.5   Concentrations Air Quality Model NOx SO4 NH3 NO NH3 NH 3 +HNO 3   NH 4 NO 3 OH+NO 2   HNO 3 NO ...
Speciated PM2.5 Data   January 2004 Inversion
Winter Emissions Inventory <ul><li>Categories of Sources include Mobile (cars), Point (industry), and Area (urban activity...
<ul><li>Fuel Type </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle Type </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature / Humidity </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle Speed ...
Preliminary Modeling Runs <ul><li>UDAQ has been running the Air Quality model in order to replicate measured values from p...
 
Work in the Coming Years <ul><li>Control strategies will be evaluated for all sectors within the airshed </li></ul><ul><ul...
Stakeholder Involvement <ul><li>SIP development is an open stakeholder process </li></ul><ul><li>Stakeholders include: </l...
Next Steps <ul><li>Project has just begun </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will take about 3 years </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Work is alr...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Wintertime PM in Utah (Air Quality)

757 views
693 views

Published on

Science-based presentation on wintertime particulate matter in Utah.

Published in: Health & Medicine, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
757
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • I been asked to give a status report on the PM2.5 SIP But I understand there are some new members of the Board, so I’ve sprinkled in some remedial stuff… the rest of you all can bear with me I threw this slide up because it’s a good picture… and it frames our problem so well
  • When we monitor concentrations that violate these NAAQS we address the problem with a modification to our SIP. Such is the case with PM2.5, but a little background should allow you to digest the status report a little easier
  • This slide shows the relative sizes of these particles… from big to small … we’re now focusing on the very small particles (sometimes called fine particulate.) This is because most of the adverse health effects are attributable to these fine particles that lodge deeply into the lung.
  • The CAA requires EPA to review the NAAQS (every 5 yrs) and revise them if necessary, and they just did this with PM (in 2006.) So this is just the latest step in dealing with particulate since 1970
  • This chart shows the levels of the various PM standards we’ve had since 1970. The first point to be made is that we’ve changed our focus from TSP to smaller (PM10) and smaller (P2.5) particles. The second point is that the standard has become ever more restrictive.
  • Monitored values of PM2.5 indicate that Utah was meeting the old (1997) standards for PM2.5, though not by much. These values also show there will be areas within the state that do not meet the new (2006) standards.
  • The CAA lays out a 5-yr process for addressing areas that do not met the federal health standards. The first 2 involve establishing the actual areas of nonattainment. The next 3 are used to develop plans to bring these areas back into attainment with the NAAQS.
  • This slide re-caps the area designation process. The map on the left represents Utah’s recommendation to EPA. …And the map on the right shows EPA’s (likely) final determination.
  • Even though the designations (for the entire country) have not been published yet, we expect that EPA will take this final step in the very near future.
  • This next slide outlines the process of developing a State Implementation Plan. …again, it’s 3-yr process, and this identifies the fundamental phases of the project.
  • The early SIP work we’ve been doing involves the first project phase from the last slide… model validation. This is largely technical work that is done in order to develop the tool we will ultimately use to provide quantitative answers to questions concerning the effectiveness of possible control strategies and the timeliness of attainment. … Involves assembling data sets for Emissions, Met., AQ (speciated)… pairing them in space &amp; time… and running the model ‘till the results match the monitored values.
  • Here’s a map that shows the CMAQ modeling domain. It’s a grided model, meaning that inputs and outputs are generated for each grid cell on the map.
  • Here’s a graphic of what we were talking about before… The model assimilates data sets for meteorology and emissions, applies some atmospheric chemistry (and other physical properties) and produces PM2.5 concentrations by the hour for each grid cell on the map. In the first phase of the SIP work these output values will be compared with measured (and speciated) PM2.5 concentrations to verify that the model is working properly. Only then can it be used to make assessments about possible control strategies.
  • Here’s a slide that shows some speciated data from PM filters. It shows high concentrations of ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) Typical Salt Lake (Hawthorne monitor) wintertime inversion build-up, January 2004
  • Here’s a graphic on emissions inventories…it shows both the various source categories and the pollutants of primary concern. Similar plots for Utah County and the Cache Valley would look a bit different with respect to point sources, but the relative contribution of primary PM2.5 would also be overshadowed by the reactive pollutants.
  • This diagram illustrates how the mobile source emissions model fits into the overall scheme of the SIP demonstration. We include it only to point out that EPA is in the process of releasing a new, and much different, model than has been used in the past. Given the dominance of mobile sources with respect to NOx emissions, it will be very important to understand how it works. Over the coming months, we will continue to refine our estimates for mobile source emissions using this new model. Hence, the AQ model will also be re-run.
  • UDAQ has completed some preliminary draft model runs for the episodes of 2007 and 2008. Results are still preliminary… largely because of the uncertainties surrounding the mobile source emissions estimates. CMAQ Model performance looks to be good enough for SIP work
  • Animation of PM2.5 modeling results for 4 days in January of ’07
  • The next significant step in the process will be an assessment of control strategies. UDAQ will consider all sources of emissions for possible controls. The emission reductions must be reflected in a modeled demonstration of attainment.
  • SIP development is an open process. UDAQ will be working closely with affected stakeholders during this next stage of the process.
  • So what can we expect as the project moves forward? Even though the clock hasn’t started yet, UDAQ has been busy with model development. Results are still preliminary, but we’re pleased with the progress we’ve made so far.
  • Wintertime PM in Utah (Air Quality)

    1. 1. Wintertime PM in Utah <ul><li>Utah’s mountain valleys and wintertime temperature inversions provide ideal conditions for the formation of fine particulate. </li></ul><ul><li>PM2.5 Concentrations build as temperature inversions persist. </li></ul><ul><li>Utah will need to develop State Implementation Plans to meet revised federal Health Standards for PM2.5 </li></ul>
    2. 2. Background <ul><li>The Clean Air Act identifies 6 criteria pollutants (CO, Lead, NO 2 , Ozone, Particulate Matter , SO 2 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Establishes National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for each in order to protect public health </li></ul><ul><li>UDAQ monitors the air to determine whether or not Utah is meeting these standards </li></ul>
    3. 3. Particles Fine Particles lodge deeply into the lungs, and are associated with serious health problems, including heart and lung diseases, and premature death.
    4. 4. PM2.5 in Utah <ul><li>Most of Utah’s Wintertime Particulate is Fine Particulate, or PM2.5 </li></ul><ul><li>Most of Utah’s PM2.5 is “Secondary” PM </li></ul><ul><li>This Wintertime Smog develops in, and is trapped by, mountain valleys and temperature inversions </li></ul>
    5. 5. Revised NAAQS for PM2.5 <ul><li>EPA revised the NAAQS for PM2.5 in December of 2006 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>24-hr standard was lowered from 65 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m 3 ) to 35 µg/m 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Annual standard was retained at 15 µg/m 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Retained the 24-hr standard for PM10 at 150 µg/m 3 </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. ug/m3 1974 – 3080 ug/m3 TSP 1987 – 487 ug/m3 TSP 1992 – 267 ug/m3 PM10 2002 – 91.6 ug/m3 PM2.5 Salt Lake Valley Maximum 2008 – 59.6 ug/m3 PM2.5 Particulate Matter Standards
    7. 7. Monitored levels of PM2.5
    8. 8. Timeline <ul><li>The Clean Air Act lays out a 5-year process from revision of the standard to completion of a State Implementation Plan (SIP) </li></ul><ul><li>The First 2 years are used to define the area boundaries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Year 1: The State makes a recommendation to EPA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Year 2: The EPA makes the final designations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The next 3 years are used to develop the SIP </li></ul>
    9. 9. PM2.5 Area Designations <ul><li>UDAQ has completed its work on area designations for PM2.5 and the Governor submitted Utah’s recommendations to EPA </li></ul><ul><li>UDAQ based its recommendation on a technical evaluation of local data </li></ul><ul><li>EPA considered Utah’s recommendation, but expanded the areas </li></ul>Utah’s Recommendation EPA’s Proposed Final Designation Great Salt Lake Great Salt Lake
    10. 10. Current Status <ul><li>EPA has not published its findings in the Federal Register, meaning: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>there is still no effective date, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>none of the clocks are ticking just yet, giving UDAQ more time to develop and implement strategies to reduce pollution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SIP will be due 3 years after the effective date </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Even though the clocks are not ticking, UDAQ has been working on a PM2.5 SIP </li></ul>
    11. 11. State Implementation Plan <ul><li>Essentially a 3-year process </li></ul><ul><li>Basic Project Phases include: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Model Validation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Includes Episode Selection, Inventories, Meteorological Data </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Control Strategy Testing / Development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sensitivity runs to Identify Targets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of Possible Controls </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Projection Inventories are tested in the model </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Administrative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SIP writing & processing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Emission Limits </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Documentation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Associated Rulemakings </li></ul></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Early SIP Work <ul><li>Phase I – Model Validation </li></ul><ul><li>Work is already underway to develop the Air Quality Model used to support the SIP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Modeling Domain includes most of Northern Utah </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Simulates the chemical and physical processes important to PM2.5 (and ozone) formation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will ultimately be the tool for evaluating the effectiveness of possible control strategies </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. CMAQ Modeling Domain <ul><li>Grid-based Regional Scale Model </li></ul><ul><li>Simulates Atmospheric Chemistry & Dispersion </li></ul><ul><li>Input Hourly Emissions & Meteorology </li></ul><ul><li>Outputs Hourly Gridded Concentrations </li></ul>
    14. 14. Emissions Modeled PM 2.5 Concentrations Air Quality Model NOx SO4 NH3 NO NH3 NH 3 +HNO 3 NH 4 NO 3 OH+NO 2 HNO 3 NO 2 +O 3 NO 3 83% -5 ° 250m NW 6 Meteorology Chemistry Must replicate the complex chemistry of winter-time Fine Particulate (PM 2.5 ) Formation
    15. 15. Speciated PM2.5 Data January 2004 Inversion
    16. 16. Winter Emissions Inventory <ul><li>Categories of Sources include Mobile (cars), Point (industry), and Area (urban activity.) </li></ul><ul><li>Not only PM2.5 emissions, but also precursor emissions that become chemically altered during winter inversions to form more particulate </li></ul><ul><li>Some of these precursor gasses are also important to summertime ozone formation </li></ul>
    17. 17. <ul><li>Fuel Type </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle Type </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature / Humidity </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle Speed </li></ul>Local Data Input Model Prediction NOx CO2 VOC NH3 CO MOBILE 6 NMIM (National Mobile Inventory Model) MOVES ( Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator ) Vehicle Emissions in Tons Mobile Emission Models SOx PM2.5 Emission Factor Model Air Quality Chemistry Model Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT) I/M Program
    18. 18. Preliminary Modeling Runs <ul><li>UDAQ has been running the Air Quality model in order to replicate measured values from past episodes. </li></ul><ul><li>This step insures that the model will be suitable for testing control strategies later on. </li></ul><ul><li>Modeling is preliminary, but the next slide shows some early results: </li></ul>
    19. 20. Work in the Coming Years <ul><li>Control strategies will be evaluated for all sectors within the airshed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PM2.5 and the precursors that form PM2.5 (NOx, SO2, VOC) from point sources will be considered </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Controls on area sources such as wood burning and fugitive dust will be considered </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile sources will be evaluated for various I/M strategies (including on-board diagnostics (OBD) and diesel) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Modeled Attainment Demonstration </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shows that control strategies will sufficient to meet the standards </li></ul></ul>
    20. 21. Stakeholder Involvement <ul><li>SIP development is an open stakeholder process </li></ul><ul><li>Stakeholders include: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Local government officials </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concerned Citizens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transportation Officials </li></ul></ul><ul><li>UDAQ held kick-off meetings in Salt Lake and Cache Counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Well Attended </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There will be more meetings as the SIP is developed </li></ul></ul>
    21. 22. Next Steps <ul><li>Project has just begun </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will take about 3 years </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Work is already underway </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Episode Selection </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Episodic Emissions Inventories </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assimilation of representative Meteorological Data </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We will likely re-convene when we have a Validated AQ Model </li></ul>

    ×