Utah Trendlines: Sep-Oct 2011


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Utah Trendlines: Sep-Oct 2011

  1. 1. GrEEN JobS and More September/October 2011 Perspectives on Utah’s Economy INSIDE: A National and Regional Green Jobs Assessment Defining Green Jobs PLUS TraINING opportunities for GrEEN Green CareersDepartment of Workforce Services
  2. 2. Trendlines Trendlines is published every other month by the Utah Department of Workforce Services, Workforce Research and Analysis. To read, Utah Department of Workforce Services download, or print this publication (free), Executive Director see our Internet site: http://jobs.utah.gov/wi. Kristen Cox Click on “Publications” then select the one you want from the list. Workforce Research and Analysis To obtain additional printed copies or to Rick Little, Director Kimberley Bartel, Editor subscribe to Trendlines contact: Department of Workforce Services Contributors Attn: WRA Linda Marling Church 140 East 300 South Jane Gardner Salt Lake City, UT 84111 Mark Knold Lecia Langston John Mathews Telephone: (801) 526-9462 Jim Robson Fax: (801) 526-9238 Nate Talley Email: wipublications@utah.gov Designer Pat Swenson The Workforce Research and Analysis Division generates accurate, timely, and understandable data and analyses to provide knowledge of ever-changing workforce environments that support sound planning and decision-making. jobs.utah.gov DWS-03-44-0911 Equal Opportunity Employer/Program Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities by calling (801) 526-9240. Individuals with speech and/or hearing impairments may call the Relay Utah by dialing 711. Spanish Relay Utah: 1-888-346-3162.2 September/October 2011
  3. 3. GREEN JOBS and More September/October 2011 Perspectives on Utah’s Economy contents INSIDE: A National and Regional Is the Recovery Ready to Move Green Jobs Assessment Defining Green Jobs 4 into a Higher Gear? Wasatch Front and Statewide PLUS TRAINING Defining Green Jobs Opportunities 6 for GREEN Careers Economic Insight Is Utahs Employment Grass Greening Up? Department of Workforce Services 8 A quick look at "green job" projections Whats Happening Green Jobs 10 Training Opportunities for Green Careers DWS News and More! State of Utah Green Jobs Survey Revisited: 12 Major Findings Economic News Unemployment & Underutilization 14 of Labor The Outlook pg. 10 Profiling the Recession Upon Classes 17 Within the Labor Force Insider News A National & Regional 20 Green Jobs Assessment National News The “Other” Unemployment Rate— Utah’s Insured Unemployment Rate Provides 22 Economic Insights FYI pg. 24 Environmental Engineers: Saving the Earth 24 Occupations Utilities 26 Industry Highlight Just the Facts... 27 Rate Updatejobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 3
  4. 4. wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, chief economist Is the Recovery Ready to Move Into a Higher Gear? 4 September/October 2011
  5. 5. L et’s highlight some good economic news With time, we see relational patterns emerge for a change. Sure the economy is still between the initial survey estimates and struggling in Utah, but we need to ac- the lagged employment counts. When the knowledge any good piece of news, especially actual employment counts are falling, the when it is a key economic variable. survey sees this fall, but it has a tendency not to catch the true depth of the decline. Utah’s actual employment numbers are in for Conversely, when the employment picture the first quarter and they came in better than reverses and improves, the survey estimates the original survey estimates. Not by anything have a tendency to be lower than the actual excessive, but an original 1.7 percent growth employment counts that come in later. So estimate is now revised up to 1.9 percent. The the survey usually ends up chasing the fall best part is that a shift may have occurred, and lagging the rise. portending a strengthening Utah employment trend. Let me explain. It is the shift in relationships for the first quarter that is most encouraging. For most Actual employment counts for a time period of the past three years, as the employment don’t come in until further down the road, counts fell, the survey was not capturing the after most of the state’s employers report their complete depth of the job loss. Employment payroll counts into the state’s unemployment gains have now risen in Utah over the past insurance program. Unfortunately, it takes year, but the survey stayed slightly ahead time for all of this data to accumulate and be of those gains. But the first quarter data processed. In the meantime, an employment now puts the survey behind actual Utah survey is done every month to get a feel for job growth for the first time in many years, what is happening—employment-wise—in suggesting the Utah economy is starting a more current time frame. The actual, but to kick into a higher gear. Let’s hope this lagged, employment numbers will eventually continues and is not just a one-quarter replace the survey’s results. anomaly.jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 5
  6. 6. economic insight | by jim robson, economist Defining Green Jobs I n recent years, public policies nationally and internationally are increasingly focused on the need to transform economic activities to be sustainable, secure, and healthier. Economic activities— production, investment, infrastructure development, and research—that promote environmental health, conserve resources, and secure our energy future have been given the label “green.” Concepts and discussions of the green economy have been with us for many U.S. fIRMS THAT PRODUCE GREEN GOODS OR SERvICES By INDUSTRy years, but attempts to understand its scope, size, and growth have been stymied by the 2009 lack of official government data on green industries, occupations, and employment. Number of Percent As various states, regions, and national Establishments Distribution organizations have struggled to measure Natural Resources and Mining 88,700 4.1% the green economy in the recent past, the need for standard and comprehensive Construction 820,700 38.1% measurement of the green economy Manufacturing 77,700 3.6% became clear. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 49,300 2.3% Beginning in 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was given the assignment Information 77,000 3.6% to develop a standard definition and Professional and Business Services 779,100 36.2% procedure to measure green jobs. BLS defines green jobs as either: Education and Health Services 26,400 1.2% A. Jobs in businesses that produce goods Other Services 183,300 8.5% or provide services that benefit the Government 42,100 2.0% environment or conserve natural resources. All Other Sectors 10,400 0.5% B. Jobs in which workers’ duties involve making their establishment’s production Total 2,154,700 100% processes more environmentally friendly or Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. use fewer natural resources.6 September/October 2011
  7. 7. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is developing a standard definition to measure green jobs.BLS determined it needed two approaches to (Part A) using two surveys, a new Green Goods andmeasure green jobs. The output approach (Part A), Services (GGS) survey and an enhanced version ofidentifies firms that sell green goods and services the existing Occupational Employment Statisticsand counts the associated jobs. According to BLS, (OES) survey. When a business establishmentcustomers buy green goods and services that fall produces both green and non-green goods orinto five categories: services, jobs will be allocated as green using the share of total revenues from the green products1. Energy from renewable sources. sold. This allows for an equitable distribution of production, administrative, and management jobs2. Energy efficiency. among green and non-green products.3. Pollution reduction and removal, greenhouse BLS is scheduled to publish its first green jobs gas reduction, and recycling and reuse. statistics on national and state levels by industry and occupation from data collected during 20114. Natural resources conservation. from the GGS and OES surveys in the spring 20125. Environmental compliance, education and and annually thereafter. training, and public awareness. For the process approach (Part B), measuringThe second method or the process approach (Part green jobs related to the use of environmentallyB), counts workers within firms that “research, friendly production within an establishment,develop, or use technologies and practices to lessen BLS is developing a special employer survey tothe environmental impact of their establishment”, be administered during the summer of this yearor train others “in these technologies and with a planned release in the summer of 2012.practices.” BLS has identified four groups of green This data will be employment and wages bytechnologies and practices within firms for the occupations for the Nation and Census Regionsprocess approach: (no state breakout).1. Energy from renewable sources.2. Energy efficiency. For additional information3. Pollution reduction and removal, green house gas reduction and recycling and reuse. on measuring green jobs4. Natural resources conservation. from BLS go toBLS will count green jobs and wages by detailed http://www.bls.gov/green/industries and occupations for the output approachjobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 7
  8. 8. whats happening | by lecia parks langston, economist Is Utah’s Employment Grass Greening Up? A quick look at “green job” projections W ith the results of Blue and White are Green the Department of Which major occupational groups Workforce Services should create the most green-job open- first attempt at studying Utah’s ings? Well, in this case green-collar “green” jobs firmly in hand (see the openings are primarily blue-collar article on page 12), we took the next openings. Half of all green-openings logical step. We’ve developed green should occur in just four blue-collar job projections. This process entailed occupational categories—production combining our green jobs research with (manufacturing), construction/mining, our long-term occupational projections installation/maintenance /repair, and for 2008-2018. Yes, I know it is 2011! transportation/material moving. Projec- But don’t think these projections are tions indicate another quarter of these Often these green- meaningless. Occupational projections new openings will occur in occupa- related emerging are produced on a two year cycle after the U.S. projections are complete. It’s tional groups that typically require a bachelor’s degree or higher (white col- occupations dont a very time-consuming process, and lar)—management, life/physical/social sciences, and architecture/engineering. we’re just gearing up to do the next have their own set. Plus, I’ve been in the occupational- Down to the Individual classification yet, projection business a long time—the trends change very, very slowly. So, Which individual occupations should although new here’s what we expect in the next provide the most green-related open- ings? Again, the green answer seems several years. classifications more blue-collar than white- or pink- More Openings should be Green jobs should grow at an annual collar. In addition, two “residual” or “all other” occupational categories forthcoming. rate of approximately 2 percent a year— about the same expansion rate as total show up high on the list. Why? Be- cause many green professions are employment. When we add the need emerging occupations, they don’t yet for replacements to growth in green have their own classification in the jobs, Utah can expect an average of occupational coding structure. Often 1,100 openings per year for green-related these emerging occupations must be jobs—about half from growth; half from categorized in the “all other” groups. replacement needs. Seems like a lot? (Fortunately, the latest revision of Well, keep in mind that we expect a total the Standard Occupational Classifi- annual average of 64,000 Utah openings cation system includes many “new” per year during the projection period. On green occupation classifications, so the other hand, green jobs are expected more-detailed data should be forth- to comprise more than 3 percent of coming.) Interestingly, both retail total openings compared to less than 2 salespersons and heavy truck drivers percent of current employment. made the list.8 September/October 2011
  9. 9. Share of Utah Projected GrEEn Jobs by Major Occupational Group 2008-2018 Jobs in the production and All Other 15% Production construction industries are Sales 15% 5% projected to create the most Building & Grounds Cleaning Construction, green jobs through 2018. 5% Extraction 15% Architecture & Engineering 7% Installation, Maintenance & Repair Life, Physical & 12% Social Science Management 7% 11% Transportation, Material Moving 8% Utah Occupations with the Most Projected GrEEn Openings • 2008-2018 Heating/Air Conditioning/ 60 Refrigeration Mechanics/Installers Production Workers, All Other 50 Electricians 30 Managers, All Other 30 Retail Salespersons 30 Laborers and Freight/Stock/Material 30 Movers Refuse and Recyclable Material 30 Collectors Water/Liquid Waste Treatment Plant/ 30 System Operators Maintenance and Repair Workers, 20 General Landscaping and Groundskeeping 20 Workers Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids 20 and Housekeeping Cleaners Forest and Conservation Technicians 20 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and 20 Steamfitters Truck Drivers, Heavy 20 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 9
  10. 10. dws news | by jane gardner, labor market information specialist TRAInInG OPPORTunITIES for Green Careers utah is emphasizing four green career sectors: 1. alternative fuels 2. energy management 3. green construction 4. renewable energy production and transmission. G reen careers are critical to Utah’s continued industries. Training started in January 2011 and will quality of life and in diversifying Utah’s vibrant be provided through July 31, 2012. Currently 202 economy. Data from Utah’s Green Jobs Survey participants are enrolled in training courses. The chart approximated 1,100 green job openings per year—which at the right identifies SESP training institutions and their accounts for 3.3 percent of all total job openings. (For respective curriculum. more information on green occupational projections, see the article on page 8.) Training participants work with Energy Career Development Specialists located at the schools who In January 2010, the Utah Department of Workforce determine their individual needs and eligibility for the Services (DWS) was awarded a $4.6 million State Energy program. The specialists also coordinate with the schools Sector Partnership (SESP) grant by the US Department to develop class schedules and materials needed for of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. classes and assist with job placement upon completion. The grant’s purpose is to support state’s roles in build- ing a national green economy. The average class length is six months and participants initially complete core training that provides the The project will provide no-cost training to 1,400 foundational skills needed for any of the specific individuals who can obtain skills required to work training areas. Core training includes energy essentials, in emerging energy efficiency and renewable energy computer skills, applied math, technical writing,10 September/October 2011
  11. 11. STATE CORE EnERGy CuRRICuLuM Statewide Energy Management/Efficiency and Renewable Energies Energy Essentials Computer Skills Applied Math Safety Regulations Technical Writing Technical All participants will complete common Essentials OSHAFoundations and “core” training in addition to a Integrated Skill “specialty” program. This will provide Sets Processing the integrated foundational skills needed First Aid + CPR to cross over in to any of the specific training areas. This will allow individuals Energy Essentials to move in and out of occupations/ sectors as the market changes. and safety regulations. Upon completion of the core location of Monument Valley and made it feasible for training, every participant will obtain OSHA and First SESP to offer the course outside of the regular school Aid/CPR certifications. In the near future, core training year. The program provided youth with an internship courses will be available online. opportunity building octagons, which is a version of the traditional Navajo hogan. Participants gained valu- Success Story #1: a Box Elder County par- able work experience in addition to high school credit. ticipant owns a repair shop and wanted to add CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) installation to his existing Upon completion of the program, training participants services. Not only did the training (CNG certification) will have the potential to improve their earnings increase his business revenue but the school asked him and be marketable in an energy sector career, obtain to become a CNG instructor--win for the participant employment in an energy sector occupation or maintain/ and win for the program. retain employment in their current position. To find out if you may be eligible for the no-cost training, go Success Story #2: This summer, Utah State to jobs.utah.gov and click on the State Energy Sector University-Workforce Education Division and SESP Partnership Grant link or contact Melisa Stark, DWS partnered to teach Navajo youth building skills. This Program Specialist (801) 628-4051, mstark@utah.gov or collaboration made it possible for the DWS Youth Kelly Thornton, DWS Program Specialist (435) 719-2630 Employment Program to reach students in the remote kthornto@utah.gov. jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 11
  12. 12. economic news | by nate talley, economist State of Utah Green Jobs Survey Revisited Major Findings T rendlines readers might remember the article entitled ‘State of Utah Green Jobs Survey’ published in our January/February 2011 issue, which detailed the Department of Workforce Services’ (DWS) effort to Nearly 6,000 Utah measure the incidence and prevalence of green jobs in Utah. That article can be referenced for a detailed overview of survey methodology and our businesses were definition of ‘green’. Otherwise, a few elements of the DWS Green Jobs Survey that will aid in the consumption of this article are as follows: as part of the found to be involved Rocky Mountain Northern Plains green job consortium, DWS administered a in green activities Green Jobs survey to over 11,000 Utah establishments during the 2nd quarter of 2010. Employers across all industries, size classes and state geographies were surveyed, and activities belonging to six green economic categories were captured. Nearly 6,000 Utah businesses were found to be involved in green activities during the survey period. Of those, it is estimated that almost half were operating to promote products or services that increase energy efficiency or the conservation of energy. The remaining green economic categories witnessed relatively equal representation, as can be seen in Figure 1.12 September/October 2011
  13. 13. Figure 1: Green Economic Percent of GreenCategory BusinessesEnergy Efficiency 49.2%Sustainable Agriculture 11.1%Renewable Energy 10.4%Environmental Cleanup 10.0%Education and Regulation 9.7%Pollution Prevention and Reduction 9.6%In terms of green employment, there were 22,270 green jobs in Utah, 6,000 of which were found in theconstruction industry. The manufacturing and professional and technical industries followed with 3,272 and1,743 green jobs, respectively. Other industries, while not possessing the same levels of total green jobs, hadhigh concentrations of green employment relative to their total industry employment. 15.4 percent of theutility industry’s employment was green, with agriculture at an 8.6 percent concentration and mining at 7.1percent. Figure 2: Utah Green Industry Statistics18.0% 7,00016.0% 6,00014.0%12.0% 5,000 Percent Green10.0% 4,000 Number of Green Jobs 8.0% 3,000 6.0% 2,000 4.0% 2.0% 1,000 0.0% 0 Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Real Estate Professional and Technical Management Administrative and Waste Arts, Entertain, and Rec Other Services Public AdministrationIn many ways, it was not surprising to discover which industries most represented green jobs in terms oftotal job counts and relative employment percentages, since some of the green economic activities withinour definition are especially prevalent in particular industries. For example, jobs having to do with energyefficiency and conservation, such as HVAC technicians and solar panel installers, are frequently found inthe construction industry. Likewise, energy efficiency activities are often undertaken by companies in theutilities industry, technologies in cleaner oil extraction and environmental clean-up are being more commonlyutilized in the mining industry and consumer demand continues to influence the proliferation of sustainableagriculture practices.If nothing else, the green jobs survey has demonstrated that green jobs do exist in Utah, as well as the relatedopportunities for Utah’s workforce. As market mechanisms increasingly incentivize green economic behaviors,Utahns can continue to expect opportunities in the field of green.jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 13
  14. 14. the outlook | by john mathews, economist Unemployment & Underutilization of Labor The Unemployment Rate isnt the only way to measure the state of the economy. T he U.S. Department of Labor, the total civilian labor force (CLF). The Bureau of Labor Statistics civilian labor force includes persons 16 (BLS) is the “keeper” of the years of age and older who are working unemployment statistics. It’s their (employed) or looking for work (unem- job to provide the nation with the ployed). The proportion of the civilian numbers profiling the workforce. labor force that is looking for work be- The public, politicians, business- comes the unemployment rate. es, and policy makers often look to a single statistic—the unem- BLS also publishes “Alternative Measures ployment rate—to provide them of Labor Underutilization.”1 These look with a measure of the economic at labor force participation and labor “misery” in the country. It’s not utilization through increasing stages of the only measure that describes discernment. Six ascending measures of the state of the economy, but it’s labor underutilization emerge, labeled the one that seems to get the most U-1 through U-6 (see box for definitions). play. With each successive step, additional and more liberal criteria are added. These al- The unemployment rate is a mea- ternative criteria are measured through sure of how connected—or discon- the Census Bureau’s monthly Current nected—the workforce is to the job Population Survey (CPS, or commonly market. It is derived by dividing the called the Household Survey). Results number of unemployed persons by are compiled and released by BLS. The14 September/October 2011
  15. 15. closest measure to the official unem-ployment rate is the U-3 rate, it be-ing “total unemployed as a percentof the civilian labor force.2 Unemployment & the Highest Level of Labor UnderutilizationDiscouraged workers, added to theU-3 measure in the U-4 step, are per- U.S. and Utah 2005-2010sons who are not looking for a job 18.0but would take a job if they felt they 16.0could find one. They also had looked 14.0for a job sometime in the prior 12 U3 Utahmonths. They are not counted as 12.0officially unemployed because they 10.0 U6 Utahhad not searched for work in the 8.0prior four weeks, for the specific rea-son that they believed no jobs were 6.0 U6 U.S.available for them. 4.0 2.0U-5 goes one step further and adds inmarginally-attached workers, mean- 0ing people of U-4 characterization 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010who have cited any other reason fornot looking for work in the past fourweeks than discouragement.U-6 completes the pyramid. It actu-ally includes people who are work- Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilizationing, but only working part-time (lessthan 35 hours per week) for econom- • U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a per-ic reasons (not their own choice) yet cent of the civilian labor force;who desire and are available to work • U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporarymore hours. These individuals are jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;sometimes referred to as involuntarypart-time workers. This U-6 criterion • U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian laboris designed to capture the broadest force (this is the definition used for the official unem-extent of labor underutilization. ployment rate); • U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, asU-6 is often referenced in the press a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouragedand national stories because it is workers;looked upon as the complete storysurrounding labor. It is also more • U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plussensational. This U-6 rate is not only all other marginally attached workers, as a percent ofinherently the highest, but is notice- the civilian labor force plus all marginally attachedably higher in economic recessions workers; andthan in other phases of the business • U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attachedcycle. In effect the U-6 rate expands workers, plus total employed part time for economicthe scope of labor underutilization reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus allto include those that have given marginally attached workers.up looking for work and those thatwant to work more hours but are Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.employed part-time. continued on page 16 Trendlines 15
  16. 16. the outlook cont. | by john mathews, economist Utah Labor Underutilization The underutilization rates are infor- compared to the U.S. mative measures of the economic en- In 2003, BLS started measuring these vironment and the stress placed upon six levels for each state. Data are the labor force. Understanding these available quarterly, covering the most various measures and what they por- recent four quarters. An annual esti- tray add depth to the picture of labor mate is also produced.3 underutilization in America. Let’s place these measures in the con- ___________________ text of the current economic/busi- ness cycle by providing some history. 1 http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm We’ll use the unemployment rate (U- 3) and the U-6 underutilization rate. 2 Note that the unemployment rates The economy was in strong growth (U-3) that are shown are derived directly mode after the 2002 “Dot Com” re- from the CPS (quarterly summations). cession, growing steadily through Most state and local unemployment mid-decade, peaking in November rates (monthly summations) add other 2007. Annual unemployment rates in 2007 reflected the high-flying econo- variables to the equation to strengthen Nevada, California, my, with U.S. unemployment at 4.6 percent and Utah at 2.6 percent. At the unemployment measure. As a result, these U-3 measures may differ from the Michigan and that time the U-6 underutilization rate was 8.3 percent for the country official state unemployment rates for the Oregon were all same period. and 5.0 percent for Utah. 3 The annual rate is the one shown hit harder by the Both the national and Utah econo- mies fell into recession thereafter. in the graph. recession than From 2008 to 2010, the national un- employment rate jumped from 5.8 Utah. percent to 9.6 percent. Utah’s job- less rate also rose significantly, more than doubling from 3.5 percent in 2008 to 8.2 percent by 2010. Even more dramatic and reflective was the change in U-6 underutiliza- tion rates. The U-6 rates quickly climbed into double-digits. At the national level the 2010 U-6 reached 16.7 percent. Utah’s U-6 was nearly as high at 15.1 percent. To jog your memory, the unemployment rate for the U.S. and Utah in 2010 was 9.6 percent and 8.2 percent, respective- ly. These underutilization rates are high and could remain high for the next few years, even as the economy moves forward with recovery. The rates for states hardest hit by the recession are much higher than Utah’s. For example, in 2010 the highest U-6 rates were for Nevada (23.6 percent), California (22.1 per- cent), Michigan (21.0 percent), and Oregon (20.0 percent).16 September/October 2011
  17. 17. insider news | by mark knold, chief economist* *with programming contribution from Michelle Beebe Profiling Profiling the Recession Upon Classes Within the Labor Force I n late September 2008, insurance benefits in Utah (slightly lower than the the United States econo- national percentage of filers). As that benefit program my changed dramatically. is administered by the Department of Workforce Like a flash flood rolling down a Services, we can aggregate this unemployment-filing canyon, the financial fallout of information. This provides a picture of at least a the U.S. housing bubble hit the segment of those who are unemployed, i.e., those U.S. stock market with substantial who file for unemployment insurance benefits. It is negative consequences. The na- assumed that the profile of this group of unemployed tional economy went into shock. is representative of the greater picture of all Businesses responded rapidly and unemployed workers in Utah. aggressively, laying off large quanti- ties of workers in short order. From Unemployment insurance claim levels exploded September 2008 to May 2009—eight beginning in October 2008. Those having an active months time—the United States un- unemployment insurance claim rose from 13,400 employment rate rose from 6.2 percent in September 2008, to 44,000 by March 2009.1 to 9.4 percent. Employment levels were Before and after snapshots can be profiled upon reduced by nearly 4.8 million workers. the unemployment insurance claimants to see how various gender, educational, and social-economic Utah suffered the same type of impact. labor-force cohorts surface within the unemployment Employment levels fell by 30,000 insurance system, and how they were impacted people and unemployment rose by the recession. To do this, pre-recession trends from 4.0 percent to 7.1 percent. and patterns are established. Then those patterns The consequences of this financial are evaluated as the recession unfolds, and what is fallout continued to ripple through both the U.S. and looked for are noticeable deviations from the long- Utah economies for several more years, and even now term pattern. When those deviations are seen, then its consequences are both evident and influential, immediate impacts from the recession are assumed. although some minor employment rebounding has occurred. From this, several impacts stand out: Large quantities of workers suddenly found —The recession hit males particularly hard. Male themselves unemployed. Who were these people, percentage of all unemployment claims went from and what were their profiles and characteristics? That 55 percent before the crash to 70 percent shortly is the subject of this article. thereafter. About 30 percent of the people who are counted This increase is the result of two industries that as unemployed actually file for unemployment were hit particularly hard during the recession— continued on page 18jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 17
  18. 18. insider news cont. | by mark knold, chief economist Percent of all Claims 80% Males 65% 50% Utah Unemployment Insurance Ongoing Claims 35% Males and females September 2008 through June 2011 Females 20% Jul 08 Nov 08 Mar 09 Jul 09 Nov 09 Mar 10 Jul 10 Nov 10 Mar 11 construction and manufacturing Percent of All Claims (these two industries accounted 35% for half of all the jobs lost during 25-34 year old the recession). These industries are 30% Recession increase heavily dominated by male workers, 25% so the natural outcome would be that 35-54 year old male workers would suddenly show a 20% Utah Unemployment Insurance Claimants 45-54 year old surge in unemployment filings when these industries contracted workers. 15% By Age Groupings 55-64 year old September 2008 through June 2011 —The recession impacted younger 10% Recession increase 21 -24 year old workers more forcefully than older 5% workers. Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 This makes sense from the standpoint of historical observation as to how Percent of All Claims choices are made when workers 60% are laid off. In a broad sense, it is oftentimes younger, less experienced Recession increase 9 to 12 years 45% workers who are the first to be laid off. Older workers usually carry more Utah Unemployment Insurance Claimants tenure and institutional knowledge 30% 13-14 years By years of Education with them (thus better skills), and September 2008 through June 2011 therefore businesses are more apt to 15-16 years 15% keep their higher-skilled workers. They calculate that lesser- skilled 16+ years workers will be both easier and 0% cheaper to replace once the economy Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 picks back up. —Low education levels generally Percent of All Claims characterize the majority of the 100% Non-Hispanic unemployment claimants, and there was an initial additional impact 75% upon low education level workers, but it did not remain sustained Utah Unemployment Insurance Ongoing Claims throughout the recession period. 50% Hispanic and Non-Hispanic This works somewhat in concert September 2008 through June 2011 with the previous observation about 25% younger workers, as younger work- Hispanic 0% Jul 08 Nov 08 Mar 09 Jul 09 Nov 09 Mar 10 Jul 10 Nov 10 Mar 11 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Unemployment Insurance Filing, Continued Claims18 September/October 2011
  19. 19. Younger workers and workers living in outlying areas of the Salt Lake valley were harder hit.ers may not have had enough time able change in this relationship dur- Herriman areas in southern Saltyet to expand their education ten- ing the recession. Lake County, Lehi, Saratogaure. Even when there is no recession, Springs, and Eagle Mountainlower educated workers are the ones —There was one additional effect in northern Utah County,more often to appear within the un- that emerged from these unemploy- and around the Oquirrhemployed ranks. Workers with 9 to ment filers. It was the location and Mountains to the eastern 12 years of education make concentration of where these unem- reaches of Tooele County. up about 50 percent of all ployment filers lived. In concert with the above unemployment insurance observations of young- claimants. This rose to al- While unemployment claims rose all er workers being more most 60 percent during the over the state, certain census tracts readily unemployed, it initial job-loss phase of the stood out with the highest quantity shouldn’t come as a sur- recession, but there- of filers. Away from the Wasatch prise that the areas with after settled back Front the highest filings were in the highest concentra- down to its more Washington County, which turned tions of those filing long-term level out to be one of the most impacted for unemployment around 50 percent. areas in the state, with its housing benefits are found in This was probably bubble very much resembling what these just-mentioned the result of either happened in the hard-hit Las Vegas geographic areas. them running out area. of unemployment But along the Wasatch Front, the ___________________ benefits, or possibly areas with the highest filers were the moving on to the fed- southwest corner of Salt Lake County, eral-government ex- northeastern Utah County, and the 1 Mirroring federal tended benefit ranks areas of eastern Tooele County outside government statistical (extended benefits of Tooele City and Grantsville. These reporting procedures, were not quantified areas are what some from the real in this analysis). monthly snapshots are estate world describe as “drive-till- taken for one week each month, you-qualify” areas. —Non-Hispanics generally being the week that in- make up around 90 As the Salt Lake County area has pop- cludes the 12th day of the month. percent of all unem- ulated over the past several decades, ployment benefit fil- land and housing prices have risen ers. Hispanics make as those commodities became more up the other 10 precious. For many young, first-time percent (Hispanics home buyers employed in the Salt make up around 10 Lake area, it became necessary to percent of Utah’s drive further to find affordable land labor force). There and home pricing. This took many was no notice- young workers into the Bluffdale andjobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 19
  20. 20. national news | by jim robson, economist Average Annual 2003 Green 2010 Green Share of Total Growth 2003 Jobs Jobs 2010 Jobs to 2010 Alabama 32,592 38,182 2.3% 1.9% Alaska 8,439 16,682 10.2% 4.7% Arizona 29,896 37,257 3.2% 1.5% Arkansas 27,920 32,450 2.2% 2.6% California 239,064 318,156 4.2% 2.1% Colorado 34,787 51,036 5.6% 2.2% Connecticut Delaware 22,541 4,873 29,751 6,917 4.0% 5.1% 1.8% 1.6% A National & Dist of Columbia 20,302 22,462 1.5% 3.1% RegionalClean Economy Jobs by State: 2003 and 2010 Florida 74,669 102,967 4.7% 1.4% Georgia Hawaii 64,709 7,144 83,707 11,113 3.7% 6.5% 2.1% 1.7% Green Jobs Idaho 12,992 17,543 4.4% 2.7% Illinois 86,084 106,375 3.1% 1.8% Indiana 48,352 53,684 1.5% 1.9% Iowa 24,574 30,835 3.3% 2.0% Kansas 22,179 27,199 3.0% 1.9% Kentucky 32,011 36,963 2.1% 1.9% Louisiana 28,468 28,673 0.1% 1.5% Maine 9,298 12,212 4.0% 2.0% Maryland 34,837 43,207 3.1% 1.7% M Massachusetts 50,598 63,523 3.3% 2.0% any business and political Michigan 78,537 76,941 -0.3% 1.9% leaders see an expansive Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database. Minnesota 41,752 58,232 4.9% 2.1% “green economy” in the U.S. Mississippi 17,730 20,905 2.4% 1.8% as fundamental to a sustainable and Missouri 36,496 43,736 2.6% 1.6% secure economic future. Montana 11,850 14,235 2.7% 3.1% While interest in understanding the Nebraska 10,286 15,311 5.8% 1.5% green economy has been high in Nevada 11,167 16,578 5.8% 1.5% recent years, it has been problematic Newh Hampshire 8,971 12,886 5.3% 2.0% to define, isolate, and count. New Jersey 68,127 94,241 4.7% 2.4% Currently, there is no national green New Mexico 11,818 17,725 6.0% 2.1% database with standard industry and New York 124,848 185,038 5.8% 2.1% occupational classifications across states, regions, and metropolitan North Carolina 52,780 78,881 5.9% 1.9% areas. The numerous green jobs North Dakota 4,537 7,146 6.7% 1.7% and green economy studies done in Ohio 88,513 105,306 2.5% 2.0% recent years have somewhat different Oklahoma 13,903 19,297 4.8% 1.2% definitions and methodologies that Oregon 50,482 58,735 2.2% 3.4% have prevented suitable regional and Pennsylvania 99,334 118,686 2.6% 2.1% state comparisons. Rhode Island 9,017 9,563 0.8% 2.0% To address these data and definitional South Carolina 46,659 50,424 1.1% 2.7% shortcomings, the Metropolitan Policy South Dakota 5,459 6,659 2.9% 1.5% Program at The Brookings Institution Tennessee 58,456 76,031 3.8% 2.8% in association with Battelle Technology Texas 115,194 144,081 3.2% 1.3% Partnership Practice (Brookings/ Utah 14,312 18,261 3.5% 1.5% Battelle), developed a database at the Vermont 8,295 9,425 1.8% 3.0% establishment level for every county Virginia 48,423 66,772 4.7% 1.7% in the U.S. covering the years 2003 Washington 69,106 83,676 2.8% 2.8% to 2010. This database has enabled Brookings/Battelle to produce a study— West Virginia 10,587 12,659 2.6% 1.6% Sizing the Clean Economy, A National Wisconsin 73,093 76,858 0.7% 2.7% Wyoming 4,147 6,363 6.3% 2.1% United States 2,110,208 2,675,545 3.4% 2.0% 20 September/October 2011
  21. 21. A timely analysis of green jobs for all states, the District of Columbia, and the 100 largest metropolitan areas.Assessment Following are some data and conclu- One theme of the Brookings/Battelle sions resulting from the analysis: study concerns global competition in green technology. International • The clean economy employs 2.7 competition is already quite keen as million workers in the U.S. spread countries such as China, Germany, across a diverse group of indus- Japan, and the United Kingdom tries, accounting for 2 percent of are engaging in a “race to clean” by all jobs. making new and ongoing investments and Regional Green Jobs Assessment. in the environmental goods sector a This study provides timely major • The West has the largest share of source of quality jobs, exports, and industry and occupational green jobs clean economy jobs relative to its growth. analysis for all states, the District of population. Columbia, and for the 100 largest Likewise the green economy is seen metropolitan areas in the U.S. • Recent clean economy job growth as a potential source of future U.S. is concentrated within the largest high-quality job growth. The analysis Recognizing that there has been to metro areas. suggests that the emergence of clean date, no consensus on a definition jobs is relevant to the renewal of of the green economy, Brookings/ • The clean economy is manufactur- the national economic base, with Battelle aligned its study with well- ing and export intensive. Manu- some green segments as critical to established guidelines using “rules facturing accounts for about 26 future economic growth. Evidence that are simple, internally consistent, percent of all clean jobs, while also supports the notion that some transparent, and replicable.” The overall manufacturing comprises national policy lapses have left basic green economy definition used 9 percent of total U.S. employment. domestic green demand weaker in this study is: than it could be, financing harder to • Industry clusters enhance metropol- obtain, and the innovation pipeline “The clean economy is economic itan clean economy performance. less secure. activity—measured in terms of Clustering involves the proximity of establishments and the jobs associated similar and related businesses. with them—that produces goods and services with an environmental • Green jobs provide better pay to benefit or adds value to such products low- and middle-skilled workers using skills or technologies that are More information on the report: than does the economy as a whole. uniquely applied to those products.” Sizing the Clean Economy, A National and • The study counted 14,312 green Regional Green Jobs Assessment is available The last part of this definition jobs in 2003 and 18,261 in 2010 at http://www.brookings.edu/metro/Clean_ concerns firms that add value to for Utah. The Utah average annual Economy.aspx. clean products—seeking to capture green jobs growth rate over those the green supply chain, that is, seven years was 3.5 percent, just companies that provide materials or above the 3.4 percent growth rate inputs to the final green products. nationally. jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 21
  22. 22. fyi by lecia parks langston, economist The “Other” Unemployment Rate— Utah’s Insured Unemployment Rate Provides Economic Insights Seventy percent of the “unemployed” are not receiving unemployment benefits. Find out why. M ost people are somewhat rarely sees the media light of day. they’ve been out of the labor force familiar with the The insured unemployment rate is for several years, they’ve never had unemployment rates that calculated by dividing the number a job, their job wasn’t covered by are published by the Bureau of Labor of individuals making a weekly unemployment insurance laws, they Statistics. These unemployment claim for unemployment insurance were self-employed, or they just rates cover the entire labor force benefits by the number of jobs didn’t file for benefits. (total unemployment rate or TUR). covered by unemployment insurance Nationally, household surveys laws (covered employment). These So why might you be interested in reveal the jobless rate. Monthly figures will not include noncovered the insured unemployment rate? unemployment rates for Utah are a agriculture, the self-employed, folks First, it is based on hard numbers hybrid of modeled data and survey who haven’t worked long enough to rather than estimates or surveys. data. On a county level, jobless rates establish a claim, etc. Second, it is available a week rather are estimated using other sources than a month after the fact. Third, of data—the national survey isn’t Now, there’s a misconception out there it can act as a precursor for changes large enough to provide rates for that only claimants for unemployment in the total unemployment rate. individual counties. The public likes insurance benefits are counted in the Fourth, with their strong attachment to track unemployment rates—even total unemployment rate (TUR). Not and history in the labor force, these though they are far from the best true. The “recipiency rate”—or share individuals typically represent the indicators of economic well-being. of the total unemployed receiving core of the labor force. Finally, it is easy Maybe it’s just human nature to unemployment insurance benefits— to calculate insured unemployment focus on the negative. typically measures just less than 30 rates by county and industry. percent in Utah. In other words, 70 There is another unemployment rate percent of the “unemployed” are not On the other hand, it has its that is based on hard numbers—not receiving unemployment benefits. drawbacks. It only includes 30 a survey. However, the little-known Why? These individuals didn’t work percent of the unemployed and itfor your in insured unemployment rate (IUR) long enough to qualify for benefits, excludes those on extended benefit22 September/October 2011