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Utah Economic Profile as of September 2008, presented by Utah Economist, Mark Knold.

Utah Economic Profile as of September 2008, presented by Utah Economist, Mark Knold.

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  • 1. Utah Planned Giving September, 2008 Mark Knold Chief Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 2. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 05 Utah U.S.
  • 3. Utah Unemployment Rate 1973 – 2008 Percent Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: August 2008
  • 4. Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals 1994 – 2007 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; Nov. 2007. http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137 Trendline Dwelling Units
  • 5. Utah Nonresidential Construction Valuation 1994 – 2007 (thousands of $) Micron LDS Conference Center IHC Hospital Grand America Hotel Trendline Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; Nov. 2007. http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137
  • 6. WHY?
  • 7. Reasons Long Term Short Term Change in the U.S. Economy Change in the U.S. Labor Force Utah Demographics
  • 8. Reasons Long Term Short Term Change in the U.S. Economy Change in the U.S. Labor Force Utah Demographics
  • 9. Percent Change in Population for States : 2006 to 2007 U.S. Rate = 1.0% Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country < 0.9 Source: U.S Census Bureau NM 1.5 UT 2.4 AZ 3.6 CA 0.8 NV 3.5 OR 1.7 TX 2.5 OK 1.0 CO 1.9 WA 1.7 ID 2.6 MT 1.1 WY 1.2 ND 0.2 SD 0.9 MN 0.8 NE 0.6 KS 0.6 IA 0.6 MO 0.8 AR 1.3 LA -4.9 WI 0.5 IL 0.5 IN 0.8 OH 0.1 FL 1.8 TN 1.4 KY 0.8 MS 0.1 AL 1.1 GA 2.5 SC 1.7 NC 2.1 VA 1.0 WV 0.2 PA 0.3 NY 0.0 ME 0.3 AK 1.0 HI 1.0 MA 0.1 VT 0.2 NH 0.6 RI -0.6 CT 0.1 NJ 0.2 DE 1.4 MD 0.5 MI -0.1 1.5 to 1.9 0.9 to 1.4 (At or Above the U.S. Rate) 2.0 or more (More than Double the U.S. Rate)
  • 10. Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006 U.S. Rate = 20.4% Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country < 10% Source: U.S Census Bureau NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 20% to <40% 10% to <20% > 40%
  • 11. The United States Population Is Sparse in the Mountain Region < 3 million Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 6 to <15 million 3 to <6 million > 15 million
  • 12.  
  • 13. Industrial Revolution 1830-
  • 14.  
  • 15.  
  • 16. After the 1950s
  • 17. After the 1950s
  • 18. After the 1950s
  • 19. After the 1950s
  • 20. Washington County Population Source: Population Data, http://governor.utah.gov/dea/
  • 21.  
  • 22.  
  • 23.  
  • 24. Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006 U.S. Rate = 20.4% Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country < 10% Source: U.S Census Bureau NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 20% to <40% 10% to <20% > 40%
  • 25. Percent Change in Employment for States : 1990 to 2006 U.S. Rate = 24.4% Employment Growth is Strongest In the Rocky Mountain Region 0% to <20% Source: U.S Census Bureau NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 30% to <40% 20% to <30% > 40%
  • 26. Reasons Long Term Short Term Change in the U.S. Economy Change in the U.S. Labor Force Utah Demographics
  • 27. California State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 28. Oregon State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 29. Washington State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 30. Colorado State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 31. Arizona State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 32. Utah State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 33. Nevada State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 34. Idaho State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 35. Montana State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 36. Texas State Employment Growth Rates 1970 – 2006 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2000
  • 37. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1960 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 38. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1970 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 39. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 40. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1990 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 41. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2000 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 42. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005 Millions Baby Boom Generation Labor Vacuum
  • 43. U.S. Unemployment Rate = 5.5% Employment Growth Rate = 1.6% Unemployment was Higher July 1990 Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics NM 6.8 UT 4.4 AZ 5.4 CA 5.6 NV 5.1 OR 5.5 TX 6.3 OK 5.4 CO 5.1 WA 5.0 ID 5.5 MT 6.0 WY 4.9 ND 4.2 SD 3.8 MN 4.8 NE 2.4 KS 4.3 IA 4.5 MO 5.7 AR 6.7 LA 5.6 WI 4.3 IL 6.3 IN 4.8 OH 5.7 FL 6.2 TN 5.5 KY 5.9 MS 7.4 AL 6.2 GA 5.2 SC 4.9 NC 4.1 VA 4.4 WV 8.5 PA 5.4 NY 5.2 ME 5.2 AK 6.9 HI 2.4 MA 6.4 VT 4.7 NH 5.7 RI 6.2 CT 4.9 NJ 5.0 DE 3.3 MD 5.1 MI 7.5 5.0% and Over Below 5.0% Unemployment Rate
  • 44. U.S. Unemployment Rate = 4.5% Employment Growth Rate = 1.3% Unemployment is Low Even With a Sluggish U.S. Economy July 2007 Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics NM 3.7 UT 2.7 AZ 3.7 CA 5.3 NV 4.9 OR 5.5 TX 4.4 OK 5.0 CO 3.8 WA 4.9 ID 2.3 MT 2.7 WY 3.7 ND 3.1 SD 3.0 MN 4.6 NE 3.2 KS 4.6 IA 3.9 MO 4.9 AR 5.5 LA 3.9 WI 5.0 IL 5.2 IN 4.6 OH 5.8 FL 3.9 TN 4.1 KY 5.7 MS 6.7 AL 3.7 GA 4.6 SC 5.9 NC 5.0 VA 3.1 WV 4.8 PA 4.3 NY 4.9 ME 4.8 AK 6.1 HI 2.6 MA 5.1 VT 4.1 NH 3.9 RI 5.0 CT 4.5 NJ 4.6 DE 3.4 MD 4.0 MI 7.2 5.0% and Over Below 5.0% Unemployment Rate
  • 45. Reasons Long Term Short Term Change in the U.S. Economy Change in the U.S. Labor Force Utah Demographics
  • 46. Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1960 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1960 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 47. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1970 Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1970 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 48. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1980 Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 49. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1990 Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1990 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 50. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2000 Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2000 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 51. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005 Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005 Millions Baby Boom Generation
  • 52. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005 Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005 Millions Dominating the Labor Force Worker Vacuum Worker Vacuum Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers
  • 53. Utah Employment (seasonally adjusted) 00 01 02 03 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; September 2007 04 05 06 07 Employment
  • 54. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
  • 55. Net Domestic Migration 2000 - 2005 Over 100,000 Net In Migration Source: U.S Census Bureau 9,527 -33,822 408,160 - 64,460 270,946 77,821 218,722 -15,418 47,740 80,974 61,273 18,933 1,771 -18,568 -735 -16,768 -26,206 -57,763 -41,140 26,979 35,664 -89,547 14,595 -391,031 -17,000 -177,150 1,057,619 109,707 32,169 -10,578 10,521 232,666 115,084 232,448 103,521 10,518 -28,012 -1,001,100 36,804 -4,619 -13,112 -236,415 3,530 40,861 -34,273 -194,901 27,912 9,752 -165,084 0 to 20,000 Net In Migration 20,000 to 100,000 Net In Migration Net Out Migration
  • 56. Net Migration – Domestic and International 2000 - 2005 Over 100,000 Net In Migration Source: U.S Census Bureau 37,501 16,173 576,238 751,419 337,043 150,084 881,883 21,128 159,957 215,216 75,795 21,074 4,035 -14,881 3,222 54,032 -4,007 -19,541 -11,754 69,669 57,611 -69,373 60,701 -63,011 38,656 -102,008 1,585,704 159,680 59,604 75 36,457 425,510 151,485 390,672 243,498 14,209 74,458 -334,093 41,808 1,181 16,956 -73,741 7,889 51,968 41,718 95,293 118,724 -42,183 0 to 20,000 Net In Migration 20,000 to 100,000 Net In Migration Net Out Migration
  • 57. State of Utah Components of Population Change Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
  • 58. Reasons Long Term Short Term Change in the U.S. Economy Change in the U.S. Labor Force Utah Demographics
  • 59. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
  • 60. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
  • 61. Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals 1995 – 2006 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; April 2008. http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137 Trendline Dwelling Units
  • 62. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, April 2008 Overall Housing-Related Utah Percentage Employment Change Overall – Housing-Related 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
  • 63. Price + Mortgage Rate = Monthly Payment (Affordability)
  • 64. Subprime Lending Loans that do not meet Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines. Can reflect less than ideal credit. Alt-A Lending Loans that do not meet Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines. Used by not-owner-occupied. Unsecuritized Loans on real estate packaged and sold not regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission. Also, loans over the Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guarantee. Agency Loans Multi-family financing.
  • 65.  
  • 66.  
  • 67. Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals 1995 – 2008 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; August 2008. http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137 Trendline Dwelling Units
  • 68. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, August 2008 Overall Housing-Related Utah Percentage Employment Change Overall – Housing-Related 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
  • 69. Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Government Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change) July 2007 – 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Prof., and Business Leisure and Hospitality Other Services
  • 70.  
  • 71. Utah Housing Price Appreciation Across Selected Metropolitan Areas Last Five Years Salt Lake City 58% Provo-Orem 51% Ogden-Clearfield 41% Logan 33% St. George 73% Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight 22% 21% 18% 16% 26% Wage Appreciation Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 72. Utah Nonresidential Construction Valuation 1995 – 2008 (thousands of $) LDS Conference Center IHC Hospital Grand America Hotel Trendline Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; August 2008. http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137 City Creek
  • 73. Utah State Employment Growth Rates 1950 – 2010f 1960 1970 1980 1990 1950 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: August 2008 f = forecast 2000 3.3% average since 1960 2010
  • 74. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 05
  • 75. [email_address]