Northern Utah Economic Status Report: Oct 2008

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Report on demographics and economy in northern Utah. Presented in October 2008.

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  • Northern Utah Economic Status Report: Oct 2008

    1. 1. Northern Utah Human Resource Association An Economic Update (U.S., Utah, Davis & Weber) October 2008
    2. 2. The National Economic Context
    3. 3. <ul><li>U.S. Key Indicators: </li></ul><ul><li>Output – GDP Growth Est 3.3 % (2 nd 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation – Up 2.9% (2007), 5.4% August 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Population 0.7 % </li></ul><ul><li>Job Growth - 0.3 % (August 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment 6.1% (August 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Construction – Housing starts off 36% (Aug08) </li></ul>
    4. 4. Utah Significant Slowing in the Economy – But for How Long?
    5. 5. <ul><li>Key Indicators: </li></ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul><ul><li>Job Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment </li></ul><ul><li>Average Wages </li></ul><ul><li>Construction </li></ul>
    6. 6. Population
    7. 7. Percent Change in Population for States : 2006 to 2007 U.S. Rate = 1.0% Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country < 0.9 Source: U.S Census Bureau NM 1.5 UT 2.4 AZ 3.6 CA 0.8 NV 3.5 OR 1.7 TX 2.5 OK 1.0 CO 1.9 WA 1.7 ID 2.6 MT 1.1 WY 1.2 ND 0.2 SD 0.9 MN 0.8 NE 0.6 KS 0.6 IA 0.6 MO 0.8 AR 1.3 LA -4.9 WI 0.5 IL 0.5 IN 0.8 OH 0.1 FL 1.8 TN 1.4 KY 0.8 MS 0.1 AL 1.1 GA 2.5 SC 1.7 NC 2.1 VA 1.0 WV 0.2 PA 0.3 NY 0.0 ME 0.3 AK 1.0 HI 1.0 MA 0.1 VT 0.2 NH 0.6 RI -0.6 CT 0.1 NJ 0.2 DE 1.4 MD 0.5 MI -0.1 1.5 to 1.9 0.9 to 1.4 (At or Above the U.S. Rate) 2.0 or more (More than Double the U.S. Rate)
    8. 8. Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006 U.S. Rate = 20.4% Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country < 10% Source: U.S Census Bureau NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 20% to <40% 10% to <20% > 40%
    9. 9. The United States Population Is Sparse in the Mountain Region < 3 million Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 6 to <15 million 3 to <6 million > 15 million
    10. 10. Utah Population by County: 2007 Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee Box Elder 47,491 Cache 109,022 Rich 2,162 Weber 220,781 Tooele 56,536 Salt Lake 1,018,904 Morgan 9,265 Summit 38,412 Daggett 969 Utah 501,447 Wasatch 21,951 Duchesne 16,163 Uintah 28,806 Juab 9,654 Sanpete 26,464 Carbon 19,730 Emery 10,461 Grand 9,125 Millard 13,414 Piute 1,385 Garfield 4,872 Sevier 20,442 Wayne 2,635 San Juan 14,807 Iron 44,813 Beaver 6,466 Washington 140,908 Kane 6,440 Davis 296,029 State = 2,699,554 20,000 to 99,999 < 19,999 > 500,000 100,000 to 499,999
    11. 11. Utah Population Growth Rates by County: 2006 to 2007 Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee Box Elder 3.3% Cache 3.2% Rich 1.9% Weber 2.3% Tooele 4.0% Salt Lake 2.3% Morgan 4.2% Summit 4.2% Daggett 2.1% Utah 5.5% Wasatch 4.3% Duchesne 3.7% Uintah 3.8% Juab 3.6% Sanpete 2.6% Carbon 1.2% Emery 0.2% Grand 1.1% Millard 1.4% Piute 0.9% Garfield 2.1% Sevier 2.3% Wayne 3.9% San Juan 1.1% Iron 3.2% Beaver 0.6% Washington 4.5% Kane 2.3% Davis 3.3% State Average = 3.2% Increase of 1.0% to 2.6% Change of less than 1.0% Increase of 4.0% or greater Increase of 2.7% to 3.9%
    12. 12. Utah Components of Population Change Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
    13. 13. Job Growth
    14. 14. Strong Job Growth in Utah Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 1960 to 2007 Average 3.3%
    15. 15. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 05 Utah U.S.
    16. 16. Annual 2006-2007 Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    17. 17. Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Government Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile Numeric Change in Employment July 2007 – 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Prof., and Business Leisure and Hospitality Other Services One industry is largely clouding the entire picture.
    18. 18. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, August 2008 Overall Housing-Related Utah Percentage Employment Change Overall – Housing-Related 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
    19. 19. Unemployment
    20. 20. Annual 2007 Unemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
    21. 21. Here in Davis and Weber Counties
    22. 22. Population
    23. 23. Davis Weber Source: Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section September 2008. 2000-2007 Growth Rate Davis 3.3% Weber 1.7% State 2.9%
    24. 24. Employment
    25. 25. Davis Weber May 2001 p = preliminary. Source: Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce Information October 2008.
    26. 26. Davis County Employment 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 06 05 07 08
    27. 27. Davis County Employment Growth Rates 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 05 06 07 08
    28. 28. Davis County Year-Over Construction Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
    29. 29. Davis County Year-Over Manufacturing Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
    30. 30. Weber County Employment 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 05 06 07 08
    31. 31. Weber County Employment Growth Rates 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 05 06 07 08
    32. 32. Weber County Year-Over Construction Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
    33. 33. Weber County Year-Over Manufacturing Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
    34. 34. Unemployment
    35. 35. Annual Unemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. U.S. Weber Utah Davis 3.2% 2.6% 4.5% 2.7%
    36. 36. State, Davis, and Weber Monthly Unemployment Rates* Davis Weber State *Seasonally Adjusted. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
    37. 37. $$$$ Wages $$$$
    38. 38. 2007 Average Monthly Wage by County Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
    39. 39. % Change in Average Monthly Wage 2006-2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
    40. 40. Average Monthly Wage – 2007 <ul><li>State wages at $3,044 ($17.56/hr) are above both Davis $2,952 ($17.03/hr) and Weber $2,718 ($15.68/hr) </li></ul>$3044 $2952 $2718 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
    41. 41. Average Wage Change State, Davis, Weber 2005-2006 and 2006-2007* *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of workforce Services
    42. 42. Total Payroll Wage Change State, Davis, Weber 2005-2006 and 2006-2007* *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of workforce Services
    43. 43. Davis & Weber Counties Average Monthly Wage, 2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Average Wage Davis $2,951 Weber $2,709
    44. 44. Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Util Information Financial Activities Education and Health Government Percent Change in Average Wages By Industry, Davis & Weber Counties, 2006-2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Prof., and Business Leisure and Hospitality Other Services
    45. 45. Construction
    46. 46. Davis & Weber Counties Construction Dwelling Permits Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
    47. 47. Davis & Weber Counties Construction Permit Values (Millions of $) Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
    48. 48. Davis & Weber Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept 2007 to Jan-Sept 2008 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Dwelling Permits Total Const.Valuation
    49. 49. Outlook
    50. 50. Jobs State Outlook Continued slowing to 0.2% in 2008 and going negative -1.0% in 2009. Growth around 2.0% after 2009. Davis Sliding to zero job growth in 2008. Slipping to – 0.5% in 2009. Weber Job growth of –0.5% for 2008. Still negative in 2009 at about -1.0%. Manufacturing job losses to continue.
    51. 51. Unemployment Increasing in all counties but not accelerating. More “job pausing,” i.e. not hiring, as firms determine which way the economy is going to move. Davis unemployment at 5.0% in 2009 Weber joblessness in the 5.0% to 5.5% range in 2009 Wages – upward pressure subsiding as economy slows. Construction Permitting at low levels but growing in 2009 and 2010 if lending resumes. Total construction activity held together mostly by nonresidential (commercial/industrial) building. Little residential activity until finance industry settles, qualifying standards set, and regulatory resolution known. Spending Slow and cautious. As soon as consumers “perceive” better times they will spend. Issues of income growth, job security, and inflation (energy prices).
    52. 52. Questions?
    53. 53. John Mathews <ul><li>Northern Regional Economist </li></ul><ul><li>Department of Workforce Services </li></ul><ul><li>( jobs.utah.gov ) </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>(801) 526-9467 </li></ul><ul><li>Powerpoint slide show at: </li></ul><ul><li>http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html </li></ul><ul><li>Scroll down to presentations </li></ul>

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