Bear River Area Economic Update

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Bear River Area Economic Update, September 2012. For more information, please visit http://jobs.utah.gov

Bear River Area Economic Update, September 2012. For more information, please visit http://jobs.utah.gov

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  • 1. Bear River AreaEconomic Update By: Ivy AustriaNorthern Regional Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services September 5th, 2012
  • 2. Agenda• Executive Summary• Outlook for the Bear River Area• National and Statewide Employment• Employment & Unemployment, and Other Economic Indicators for: Box Elder, Cache and Rich
  • 3. Executive Summary• As of July 2012, The U.S has an unemployment rate of 8.3% and the State of Utah has a unemployment rate of 6.0%. Box Elder county is 7.1%, Cache county is 4.3%, and Rich County is 3.9%.• Economic recovery within Bear River ESA has been mixed, the overall outlook is slowly getting better.• The latest quarterly employment data (first quarter 2012) shows that year-over change in employment for the Bear River area is on the verge of experiencing some growth, after eight consecutive months of employment contraction.
  • 4. Executive Summary• Cache county employment has been a relatively positive picture during the first quarter of 2012, Box Elder is still struggling to recover from the massive job losses in manufacturing that occurred between 2009 and 2011.• Year-over-year employment changes in Rich County show an improving trend that is likely to go positive at some point between now and the end of the year. Building activity is still slow in the region as are taxable sales.
  • 5. National and Statewide EmploymentTotal Employment and Unemployment Rates
  • 6. U.S. and Utah Unemployment Rates: 2001 to 2012 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Utah US 0.0%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 7. Utah Statewide Employment (Seasonally Adjusted): 2000 to 2012 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; May 2012
  • 8. Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change July 2011-2012) Professional and Business 7300 Manufacturing 5000 Education and Health 4300 Financial Activities 2300 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 1900 Information 1800 Government 1200 Natural Resources 800 Leisure and Hospitality 500 Other Services 300 Construction -900Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 9. Utah Monthly Unemployment Rates*: 1976 to 2012 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012*Seasonally adjusted.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 10. Disparity between Utah and the U.S. Unemployment Rate Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1980 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980 8 5+ 8 5+ 80-84 80-84 75- 79 75- 79 70 - 74 70 - 74 6 5- 6 9 6 5- 6 9 60-64 60-64 55- 59 55- 59 50 - 54 50 - 54 4 5- 4 9 4 5- 4 9 40-44 40-44 3 5- 3 9 3 5- 3 9 30-34 30-34 2 5- 2 9 2 5- 2 9 20-24 20-24 15- 19 15- 19 10 - 14 10 - 14 5- 9 5- 9 0-4 0-4 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Population Population Dominating the Labor ForceSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
  • 11. Disparity between Utah and the U.S. Unemployment Rate (Continued) Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005 8 5+ 8 5+ 80-84 80-84 75- 79 75- 79 70 - 74 70 - 74 6 5- 6 9 6 5- 6 9 60-64 60-64 55- 59 55- 59 50 - 54 50 - 54 4 5- 4 9 4 5- 4 9 40-44 40-44 3 5- 3 9 3 5- 3 9 30-34 30-34 2 5- 2 9 2 5- 2 9 20-24 20-24 15- 19 15- 19 10 - 14 10 - 14 5- 9 5- 9 0-4 0-4 150 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Population Population Dominating the Labor ForceSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
  • 12. Employment &Unemployment
  • 13. Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs By County:2011 to 2012 Duchesne 14.8% Uintah 7.3% Grand 7.3% Washington 5.4% Sanpete 4.8% Wasatch 4.8% Utah County 4.5% Davis 4.1% Garfield 3.8% Salt Lake 3.5% Statewide 3.2% Weber 2.4% Summit 1.7% Cache 1.2% Sevier 0.6% Carbon 0.5% Iron -0.3% Kane -0.7% Juab -0.8% Tooele -0.9% San Juan -2.6% Beaver -3.7% Millard -4.3% Box Elder -4.4% Rich -4.9% Morgan -5.0% Daggett -6.2% Piute -10.2% Emery -11.7% Wayne -16.9%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 14. Box Elder County
  • 15. Box Elder County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates: 2009 - 2012 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Box Elder Utah U.S. 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 16. Box Elder County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 - 2012 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Box Elder Utah U.S. -14.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 17. Box Elder County Year - Over Job Change by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012 Professional/Business Svcs 229 Construction 218 Education/Health/Social Svcs 62 Leisure/Hospitality 51 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 14 Financial Activities 8 Other Services 7 Information -4 Mining -22 Government -300 Manufacturing -960Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 18. Box Elder County Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012 Box Elder Utah Professional/Business Svcs 35.4% 5.0% Construction 24.5% 6.7% Education/Health/Social Svcs 4.2% 4.2% Leisure/Hospitality 4.0% 3.7% Other Services 2.5% 2.9% Financial Activities 2.2% 1.0% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 0.4% 3.5% Information -4.0% 4.9% Total -4.2% 3.3% Government -11.7% 1.0% Manufacturing -17.9% 3.0% Mining -66.7% 12.7%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 19. Box Elder County Total Employment by Industry: January – March 2012 28.4% 21.7% 14.7% 10.2% 8.3% 6.2% 5.6% 2.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 20. Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing Job Growth Rates: 2007 to 2012 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Total Nonfarm Employment Manufacturing -25.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012*2011 4th quarter data is preliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 21. Box Elder County 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Unemployment Claims: 2007 to 2012 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 39.5 Jan Apr16.5 24.75 Jul 20.75 Oct 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 22. Box Elder County Weekly Average of 2nd Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012 70 62 60 50 46 40 38 33 30 28 20 17 19 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 23. Box Elder County Percent Change in Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012 Box Elder Utah 28% 17% -12% -38.7% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012 QtrSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 24. Box Elder County Percent Change in Total Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012 130.2% 113.4% Box Elder Utah 93.4% 16.0% -6.0% -35.0% -26.0% -11.0% 29.0% 13.0% -4.0% -18.8% -27.9% -48.6% -51.1% -51.3% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* YTD Apr *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  • 25. Box Elder County Year-Over Change in Gross Taxable Sales: 2009 to 2012 (Quarterly) 40.0% Box Elder Utah 30.0% 28.0% 20.0% 17.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -12.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -38.7% -50.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st QtrSource: Utah State Tax Commission
  • 26. Cache County
  • 27. Cache County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates: 2009 to 2012 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Cache Utah U.S. 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 28. Cache County Year-Over Payroll Jobs by Industry: 2009 to 2012 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Cache Utah U.S. -8.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 29. Cache County Year - Over Job Change by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012 Education/Health/Social Svcs 241 Leisure/Hospitality 210 Manufacturing 149 Information 79 Government 74 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 70 Financial Activities 21 Mining 4 Professional/Business Svcs -67 Construction -116 Other Services -54Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 30. Cache County Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012 Cache Utah Mining 66.7% 12.7% Information 12.5% 4.9% Leisure/Hospitality 5.5% 3.7% Education/Health/Social Svcs 4.3% 3.1% Financial Activities 1.5% 1.0% Manufacturing 1.4% 3.0% Total 1.2% 3.3% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1.0% 3.5% Government 0.6% 1.0% Professional/Business Svcs -1.3% 5.0% Other Services -5.3% 2.9% Construction -6.0% 6.7%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 31. Cache County Total Employment by Industry: January – March 2012 25.5% 21.0% 14.3% 11.5% 10.2% 7.8% 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 32. Cache County 4- Week Moving Average of Initial Unemployment Claims: 2008 to 2012 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 56.25 Apr 23.5 Jul 27.5 Oct 55.75 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 33. Cache County Weekly Average of 2nd Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012 100 90 91 90 79 80 70 60 57 50 47 40 32 31 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 34. Cache County Percent Change in Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012 Cache Utah 74% 28% 16% -7% -1% -48% -1% -3% 24% -5% -11% -11% -21% -22% -38% -43% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012 YTD* AprSource: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  • 35. Cache County Percent Change in Total Permit- Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012 Cache Utah 28.7% 29.3% 15.6% 12.5% 12.0% -5.6% -34.5% -12.6% -10.8% -2.0% -4.0% -2.7% -9.5% -26.1% -29.1% -42.8% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  • 36. Cache County Year-Over Change in Gross Taxable Sales: 2006 – 2012 (Quarterly) 20.0% Cache Utah 15.0% 9.3% 9.8% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 10.5% -5.0% -2.7% -10.0% -15.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st QtrSource: Utah State Tax Commission
  • 37. Rich County
  • 38. Rich County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Rich Utah U.S. 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 39. Rich County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 to 2012 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Rich Utah U.S. -25.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 40. Rich County Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012 Rich Utah Mining 19% 12.7% Professional/Business Svcs 5.0% 15% Manufacturing 3.0% 4% 4% Leisure/Hospitality 3.7% Financial Actitivities 1.0% 0% Education/Health Social Svcs 3.1% 0% Total -4% 3.3% Government -5% 1.0% Information -8% 4.9% Trade/Transportation/Utilities -19% 3.5% Construction -20% 6.7% Other Services -33% 2.9%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 41. Rich County Total Employment by Industry: January – March 2012 47.6% 14.8% 11.6% 7.0% 5.9% 4.9% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  • 42. Rich County Percent Change in Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012 Rich Utah 94.9% 62.5% 33.3% 24.3% -6.9% -8.5% 0.0% -11.0% -3.4% 6.4% 16.4% -1.1% -8.7% -22.0% -38.2% -48.4% -59.6% -100.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD* Apr *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  • 43. Rich County Percent Change in Total Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2004 to 2012 218.8% Rich Utah 156.3% 120.0% 73.7% 12.5% 15.6% -10.8% -2.6% -3.6% 12.2% 28.7% -5.6% 15.6% -34.5% -28.3% -44.1% -83.7% -142.1% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD* Apr *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  • 44. Rich County Year-Over Change in Gross Taxable Sales: 2006 to 2012 (Quarterly) Rich Utah 523.6% 442.0% 60.7% 29.7% 45.4% 20.4% -91.8% 6.1% 1.1% -3.8% -1.9% -2.6% -24.5% -37.1% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st QtrSource: Utah State Tax Commission
  • 45. Q&A
  • 46. For More Information: Ivy Austria Northern Region EconomistDepartment of Workforce Services iaustria@utah.gov (801) 526-9467