Bear River AreaEconomic Update       By: Ivy AustriaNorthern Regional Economist  Utah Department of Workforce Services    ...
Agenda• Executive Summary• Outlook for the Bear River Area• National and Statewide  Employment• Employment & Unemployment,...
Executive Summary• As of July 2012, The U.S has an unemployment rate  of 8.3% and the State of Utah has a unemployment  ra...
Executive Summary• Cache county employment has been a relatively  positive picture during the first quarter of 2012, Box  ...
National and Statewide     EmploymentTotal Employment and Unemployment              Rates
U.S. and Utah Unemployment Rates:                  2001 to 2012  20.0%  18.0%  16.0%  14.0%  12.0%  10.0%    8.0%    6.0% ...
Utah Statewide Employment (Seasonally               Adjusted): 2000 to 2012   1300   1250   1200   1150   1100   1050   10...
Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric                 Change July 2011-2012)              Professional and Business      ...
Utah Monthly Unemployment Rates*: 1976                     to 2012 12.0 10.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   0.0      1976      ...
Disparity between Utah and the U.S.                             Unemployment Rate              Utah’s Population by Age an...
Disparity between Utah and the U.S.                       Unemployment Rate (Continued)                 Utah’s Population ...
Employment &Unemployment
Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm          Jobs By County:2011 to 2012      Duchesne                                    ...
Box Elder County
Box Elder County Seasonally Adjusted      Unemployment Rates: 2009 - 2012 12.0% 10.0%   8.0%   6.0%   4.0%   2.0%         ...
Box Elder County Year-Over Payroll           Jobs By Industry: 2009 - 2012     4.0%     2.0%     0.0%    -2.0%    -4.0%   ...
Box Elder County Year - Over Job Change      by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012   Professional/Business Svcs           ...
Box Elder County Percent Change in Nonfarm           Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012                                 ...
Box Elder County Total Employment by           Industry: January – March 2012   28.4%            21.7%                    ...
Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing         Job Growth Rates: 2007 to 2012   10.0%    5.0%    0.0%   -5.0%  -10.0%  -...
Box Elder County 4-Week Moving Average of        Initial Unemployment Claims: 2007 to 2012  140  120  100    80    60    4...
Box Elder County Weekly Average of 2nd         Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012 70                                    ...
Box Elder County Percent Change in         Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012                                         ...
Box Elder County Percent Change in Total   Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012   130.2%                 11...
Box Elder County Year-Over Change in Gross         Taxable Sales: 2009 to 2012 (Quarterly)  40.0%                         ...
Cache County
Cache County Seasonally Adjusted              Unemployment Rates: 2009 to 2012 12.0% 10.0%   8.0%   6.0%   4.0%   2.0%    ...
Cache County Year-Over Payroll Jobs by               Industry: 2009 to 2012  4.0%  2.0%  0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%           ...
Cache County Year - Over Job Change by       Industry: March 2011 to March 2012 Education/Health/Social Svcs              ...
Cache County Percent Change in Nonfarm      Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012                                          ...
Cache County Total Employment by               Industry: January – March 2012   25.5%             21.0%                   ...
Cache County 4- Week Moving Average of    Initial Unemployment Claims: 2008 to 2012  180  160  140  120  100    80    60  ...
Cache County Weekly Average of 2nd            Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012 100                                    ...
Cache County Percent Change in Permitted         Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012                                             ...
Cache County Percent Change in Total Permit-      Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012                            ...
Cache County Year-Over Change in Gross      Taxable Sales: 2006 – 2012 (Quarterly)  20.0%                                 ...
Rich County
Rich County Seasonally Adjusted                     Unemployment Rates  12.0%  10.0%    8.0%    6.0%    4.0%    2.0%      ...
Rich County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By             Industry: 2009 to 2012    5.0%    0.0%   -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%     ...
Rich County Percent Change in Nonfarm       Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012                                          ...
Rich County Total Employment by Industry:             January – March 2012    47.6%             14.8%                     ...
Rich County Percent Change in Permitted           Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012                                            ...
Rich County Percent Change in Total   Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2004 to 2012                                 ...
Rich County Year-Over Change in Gross       Taxable Sales: 2006 to 2012 (Quarterly)                                       ...
Q&A
For More Information:           Ivy Austria  Northern Region EconomistDepartment of Workforce Services       iaustria@utah...
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Bear River Area Economic Update

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Bear River Area Economic Update, September 2012. For more information, please visit http://jobs.utah.gov

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Bear River Area Economic Update

  1. 1. Bear River AreaEconomic Update By: Ivy AustriaNorthern Regional Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services September 5th, 2012
  2. 2. Agenda• Executive Summary• Outlook for the Bear River Area• National and Statewide Employment• Employment & Unemployment, and Other Economic Indicators for: Box Elder, Cache and Rich
  3. 3. Executive Summary• As of July 2012, The U.S has an unemployment rate of 8.3% and the State of Utah has a unemployment rate of 6.0%. Box Elder county is 7.1%, Cache county is 4.3%, and Rich County is 3.9%.• Economic recovery within Bear River ESA has been mixed, the overall outlook is slowly getting better.• The latest quarterly employment data (first quarter 2012) shows that year-over change in employment for the Bear River area is on the verge of experiencing some growth, after eight consecutive months of employment contraction.
  4. 4. Executive Summary• Cache county employment has been a relatively positive picture during the first quarter of 2012, Box Elder is still struggling to recover from the massive job losses in manufacturing that occurred between 2009 and 2011.• Year-over-year employment changes in Rich County show an improving trend that is likely to go positive at some point between now and the end of the year. Building activity is still slow in the region as are taxable sales.
  5. 5. National and Statewide EmploymentTotal Employment and Unemployment Rates
  6. 6. U.S. and Utah Unemployment Rates: 2001 to 2012 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Utah US 0.0%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  7. 7. Utah Statewide Employment (Seasonally Adjusted): 2000 to 2012 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; May 2012
  8. 8. Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change July 2011-2012) Professional and Business 7300 Manufacturing 5000 Education and Health 4300 Financial Activities 2300 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 1900 Information 1800 Government 1200 Natural Resources 800 Leisure and Hospitality 500 Other Services 300 Construction -900Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  9. 9. Utah Monthly Unemployment Rates*: 1976 to 2012 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012*Seasonally adjusted.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. Disparity between Utah and the U.S. Unemployment Rate Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1980 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980 8 5+ 8 5+ 80-84 80-84 75- 79 75- 79 70 - 74 70 - 74 6 5- 6 9 6 5- 6 9 60-64 60-64 55- 59 55- 59 50 - 54 50 - 54 4 5- 4 9 4 5- 4 9 40-44 40-44 3 5- 3 9 3 5- 3 9 30-34 30-34 2 5- 2 9 2 5- 2 9 20-24 20-24 15- 19 15- 19 10 - 14 10 - 14 5- 9 5- 9 0-4 0-4 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Population Population Dominating the Labor ForceSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
  11. 11. Disparity between Utah and the U.S. Unemployment Rate (Continued) Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005 8 5+ 8 5+ 80-84 80-84 75- 79 75- 79 70 - 74 70 - 74 6 5- 6 9 6 5- 6 9 60-64 60-64 55- 59 55- 59 50 - 54 50 - 54 4 5- 4 9 4 5- 4 9 40-44 40-44 3 5- 3 9 3 5- 3 9 30-34 30-34 2 5- 2 9 2 5- 2 9 20-24 20-24 15- 19 15- 19 10 - 14 10 - 14 5- 9 5- 9 0-4 0-4 150 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Population Population Dominating the Labor ForceSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
  12. 12. Employment &Unemployment
  13. 13. Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs By County:2011 to 2012 Duchesne 14.8% Uintah 7.3% Grand 7.3% Washington 5.4% Sanpete 4.8% Wasatch 4.8% Utah County 4.5% Davis 4.1% Garfield 3.8% Salt Lake 3.5% Statewide 3.2% Weber 2.4% Summit 1.7% Cache 1.2% Sevier 0.6% Carbon 0.5% Iron -0.3% Kane -0.7% Juab -0.8% Tooele -0.9% San Juan -2.6% Beaver -3.7% Millard -4.3% Box Elder -4.4% Rich -4.9% Morgan -5.0% Daggett -6.2% Piute -10.2% Emery -11.7% Wayne -16.9%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  14. 14. Box Elder County
  15. 15. Box Elder County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates: 2009 - 2012 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Box Elder Utah U.S. 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  16. 16. Box Elder County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 - 2012 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Box Elder Utah U.S. -14.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  17. 17. Box Elder County Year - Over Job Change by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012 Professional/Business Svcs 229 Construction 218 Education/Health/Social Svcs 62 Leisure/Hospitality 51 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 14 Financial Activities 8 Other Services 7 Information -4 Mining -22 Government -300 Manufacturing -960Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  18. 18. Box Elder County Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012 Box Elder Utah Professional/Business Svcs 35.4% 5.0% Construction 24.5% 6.7% Education/Health/Social Svcs 4.2% 4.2% Leisure/Hospitality 4.0% 3.7% Other Services 2.5% 2.9% Financial Activities 2.2% 1.0% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 0.4% 3.5% Information -4.0% 4.9% Total -4.2% 3.3% Government -11.7% 1.0% Manufacturing -17.9% 3.0% Mining -66.7% 12.7%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  19. 19. Box Elder County Total Employment by Industry: January – March 2012 28.4% 21.7% 14.7% 10.2% 8.3% 6.2% 5.6% 2.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  20. 20. Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing Job Growth Rates: 2007 to 2012 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Total Nonfarm Employment Manufacturing -25.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012*2011 4th quarter data is preliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  21. 21. Box Elder County 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Unemployment Claims: 2007 to 2012 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 39.5 Jan Apr16.5 24.75 Jul 20.75 Oct 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  22. 22. Box Elder County Weekly Average of 2nd Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012 70 62 60 50 46 40 38 33 30 28 20 17 19 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  23. 23. Box Elder County Percent Change in Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012 Box Elder Utah 28% 17% -12% -38.7% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012 QtrSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  24. 24. Box Elder County Percent Change in Total Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012 130.2% 113.4% Box Elder Utah 93.4% 16.0% -6.0% -35.0% -26.0% -11.0% 29.0% 13.0% -4.0% -18.8% -27.9% -48.6% -51.1% -51.3% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* YTD Apr *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  25. 25. Box Elder County Year-Over Change in Gross Taxable Sales: 2009 to 2012 (Quarterly) 40.0% Box Elder Utah 30.0% 28.0% 20.0% 17.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -12.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -38.7% -50.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st QtrSource: Utah State Tax Commission
  26. 26. Cache County
  27. 27. Cache County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates: 2009 to 2012 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Cache Utah U.S. 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  28. 28. Cache County Year-Over Payroll Jobs by Industry: 2009 to 2012 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Cache Utah U.S. -8.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  29. 29. Cache County Year - Over Job Change by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012 Education/Health/Social Svcs 241 Leisure/Hospitality 210 Manufacturing 149 Information 79 Government 74 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 70 Financial Activities 21 Mining 4 Professional/Business Svcs -67 Construction -116 Other Services -54Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  30. 30. Cache County Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012 Cache Utah Mining 66.7% 12.7% Information 12.5% 4.9% Leisure/Hospitality 5.5% 3.7% Education/Health/Social Svcs 4.3% 3.1% Financial Activities 1.5% 1.0% Manufacturing 1.4% 3.0% Total 1.2% 3.3% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1.0% 3.5% Government 0.6% 1.0% Professional/Business Svcs -1.3% 5.0% Other Services -5.3% 2.9% Construction -6.0% 6.7%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  31. 31. Cache County Total Employment by Industry: January – March 2012 25.5% 21.0% 14.3% 11.5% 10.2% 7.8% 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  32. 32. Cache County 4- Week Moving Average of Initial Unemployment Claims: 2008 to 2012 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 56.25 Apr 23.5 Jul 27.5 Oct 55.75 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  33. 33. Cache County Weekly Average of 2nd Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012 100 90 91 90 79 80 70 60 57 50 47 40 32 31 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  34. 34. Cache County Percent Change in Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012 Cache Utah 74% 28% 16% -7% -1% -48% -1% -3% 24% -5% -11% -11% -21% -22% -38% -43% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012 YTD* AprSource: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  35. 35. Cache County Percent Change in Total Permit- Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012 Cache Utah 28.7% 29.3% 15.6% 12.5% 12.0% -5.6% -34.5% -12.6% -10.8% -2.0% -4.0% -2.7% -9.5% -26.1% -29.1% -42.8% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  36. 36. Cache County Year-Over Change in Gross Taxable Sales: 2006 – 2012 (Quarterly) 20.0% Cache Utah 15.0% 9.3% 9.8% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 10.5% -5.0% -2.7% -10.0% -15.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st QtrSource: Utah State Tax Commission
  37. 37. Rich County
  38. 38. Rich County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Rich Utah U.S. 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  39. 39. Rich County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 to 2012 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Rich Utah U.S. -25.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  40. 40. Rich County Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012 Rich Utah Mining 19% 12.7% Professional/Business Svcs 5.0% 15% Manufacturing 3.0% 4% 4% Leisure/Hospitality 3.7% Financial Actitivities 1.0% 0% Education/Health Social Svcs 3.1% 0% Total -4% 3.3% Government -5% 1.0% Information -8% 4.9% Trade/Transportation/Utilities -19% 3.5% Construction -20% 6.7% Other Services -33% 2.9%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  41. 41. Rich County Total Employment by Industry: January – March 2012 47.6% 14.8% 11.6% 7.0% 5.9% 4.9% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  42. 42. Rich County Percent Change in Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012 Rich Utah 94.9% 62.5% 33.3% 24.3% -6.9% -8.5% 0.0% -11.0% -3.4% 6.4% 16.4% -1.1% -8.7% -22.0% -38.2% -48.4% -59.6% -100.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD* Apr *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  43. 43. Rich County Percent Change in Total Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2004 to 2012 218.8% Rich Utah 156.3% 120.0% 73.7% 12.5% 15.6% -10.8% -2.6% -3.6% 12.2% 28.7% -5.6% 15.6% -34.5% -28.3% -44.1% -83.7% -142.1% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD* Apr *January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  44. 44. Rich County Year-Over Change in Gross Taxable Sales: 2006 to 2012 (Quarterly) Rich Utah 523.6% 442.0% 60.7% 29.7% 45.4% 20.4% -91.8% 6.1% 1.1% -3.8% -1.9% -2.6% -24.5% -37.1% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st QtrSource: Utah State Tax Commission
  45. 45. Q&A
  46. 46. For More Information: Ivy Austria Northern Region EconomistDepartment of Workforce Services iaustria@utah.gov (801) 526-9467
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