2013 Economic Forecast

326
-1

Published on

The Northern Utah Economy, for more information, please visit jobs.utah.gov

Published in: Health & Medicine, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
326
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

2013 Economic Forecast

  1. 1. T H E N O R T H E R N U T A H E C O N O M YECONOMIC OVERVIEWAND OUTLOOKTyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013
  2. 2. EMPLOYMENT TRENDSHOW HAS EMPLOYMENT CHANGED?
  3. 3. UTAH YEAR-OVER CHANGEIN TOTAL NONFARM JOBS BY COUNTY(DEC. 2011 – DEC. 2012)-7.3%-6.6%-4.6%-4.5%-2.0%-1.9%-1.5%-0.4%-0.2%0.4%0.8%0.9%1.5%2.0%2.1%2.3%2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.7%3.7%4.1%5.1%5.5%5.6%5.6%6.6%6.8%8.1%EmeryDaggettCarbonRichSan JuanUintahTooelePiuteIronSevierBox ElderMorganGarfieldWeberCacheDavisSanpeteMillardSummitKaneState Avg.WayneSalt LakeGrandJuabUtahWashingtonBeaverWasatchDuchesne
  4. 4. WASATCH FRONT NORTHRECENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY COUNTY(2002 – 2012)2%1%4%3%5%3%-0.2%-3%1%5%3%-0.3%7%8%-1%1%6%-5%-3%-1%-1%-2%-0.1%1%1% 1%3%3%-0.2%-5%-1%0.5%2%165,000170,000175,000180,000185,000190,000195,000200,000205,000-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012TotalNonfarmEmploymentPercentChangeinEmploymentfromPreviousYearDavis Morgan Weber Total Employment201,787192,196201,722
  5. 5. WASATCH FRONT NORTHUNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY COUNTY(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Aug2009Dec Apr Aug2010Dec Apr Aug2011Dec Apr Aug2012DecDavis CountyDavis Utah U.S.0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Aug2009Dec Apr Aug2010Dec Apr Aug2011Dec Apr Aug2012DecMorgan CountyMorgan Utah U.S.0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Aug2009Dec Apr Aug2010Dec Apr Aug2011Dec Apr Aug2012DecWeber CountyWeber Utah U.S.Source: Department of Workforce Services7.0%4.9%8.9%5.7%6.8%4.9%
  6. 6. WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIALUNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS WEEKLY AVERAGE(1ST QUARTER OF EACH YEAR)Source: Department of Workforce Services245 25832369054648739236801002003004005006007008002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  7. 7. WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIALUNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS BY COUNTY(FOUR-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE)Source: Department of Workforce Services050100150200250300350400Jan Apr Jul OctDavis CountyDavis 20130100200300400500600Jan Apr Jul OctWeber CountyWeber 20136-yr Range6-yr Range05101520Jan Apr Jul OctMorgan CountyMorgan 2013 6-yr Range132.5166.03.5
  8. 8. IMPORTANT INDUSTRIESWHAT DRIVES THE ECONOMY?
  9. 9. 14.2%12.3%11.7%11.3%10.0%7.4%6.0%5.5%5.1%16.9%Government (Excluding Education & Health Care)Retail Trade (Private)Health Care & Social Assistance (Public & Private)Manufacturing (Private)Educational Services (Public & Private)Accommodation & Food Services (Private)Construction (Private)Administrative & Waste Services (Private)Professional & Technical Services (Private)Other Industries (Private)WASATCH FRONT NORTH EMPLOYMENTDISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY 2012(AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT)Source: Department of Workforce Services
  10. 10. WASATCH FRONT NORTH WAGES(BY INDUSTRY)Source: Department of Workforce Services$12,783$13,991$22,844$24,632$26,618$27,706$29,161$31,342$37,472$39,458$40,328$42,376$46,293$47,667$48,883$50,702$53,241$57,729$61,898$82,375$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000Accommodation & food servicesArts, entertainment, & recreationAdministrative & waste servicesRetail tradeOther servicesAgriculture & ForestryEducational servicesReal estate & rental & leasingHealth care & social assistanceTransportation & warehousingInformationConstructionFinance & insuranceMiningWholesale tradeManufacturingGovernment (less Ed. & Health)Professional & technical servicesManagement of companiesUtilitiesAverage AnnualWage in the WFN:$37,675
  11. 11. WASATCH FRONT NORTHYEAR-OVER CHANGE IN NONFARM JOBS(BY INDUSTRY)Source: Department of Workforce Services-2.6%-2.3%-2.3%0.9%1.0%1.5%1.5%1.8%2.3%2.6%2.8%2.8%3.0%3.5%3.9%4.1%5.8%6.1%7.7%8.9%-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%Wholesale TradeTotal Government (excluding Education and Health Care)Real Estate and Rental and LeasingFinance and InsuranceUtilitiesTotal EducationOther Services (except Public Administration)Transportation and WarehousingAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HuntingTotal Health Care and Social AssistanceInformationRetail TradeProfessional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesAccommodation and Food ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesManufacturingConstructionAdministrative and Support and Waste ManagementMining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ExtractionArts, Entertainment, and Recreation
  12. 12. Government (ExcludingEducation & Health Care)Retail TradeHealth Care &Social AssistanceManufacturingEducational Services0%5%10%15%20%25%PercentofNonfarmEmploymentRecessionsWASATCH FRONT NORTHINDUSTRY TRENDS(TOP FIVE INDUSTRIES)Source: Department of Workforce Services
  13. 13. 0.81.01.20.71.30.81.11.10.90.8$-$15,000$30,000$45,000$60,000$75,0000% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%AnnualWagesPercent of Total EmploymentGovernment (excludingEducation & Health Care)WASATCH FRONT NORTHWAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)Location Quotient of 1(based on U.S. statistics)LQManufacturingProfessional &Technical ServicesTransportation &WarehousingConstructionAdministrative &Waste ServiceAccommodation &Food ServicesEducationalServiceHealth Care & Social ServicesRetail TradeAverage AnnualWage in the WFN:$37,675Source: Department of Workforce Services
  14. 14. WEBER COUNTYWAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)Source: Department of Workforce Services1.40.91.00.81.1 0.91.11.11.00.8$-$15,000$30,000$45,000$60,000$75,0000% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%AnnualWagesPercent of Total Nonfarm EmploymentHealth Care &Social AssistanceManufacturingFinance &InsuranceConstructionWholesale TradeGovernment (excludingEducation & Health Care)Retail TradeEducational ServicesAccommodation& Food ServicesAdministrative &Waste ServicesLocation Quotient of 1(based on U.S. statistics)LQAverage AnnualWage in Weber:$35,912
  15. 15. WASATCH FRONT NORTHINDUSTRY TRENDS(LARGEST INDUSTRY BY COUNTY)Davis, Government(excluding Education &Health Care)Morgan, ConstructionWeber, Manufacturing0%5%10%15%20%25%30%PercentofNonfarmEmploymentRecessionsSource: Department of Workforce Services
  16. 16. EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOKHOW WILL THE ECONOMY GROW?
  17. 17. WASATCH FRONT NORTHTOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT0500001000001500002000002500002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EmploymentTotalTotal Nonfarm Employment ProjectedSource: Department of Workforce ServicesProjected Total:233,865Projected Annual GrowthRate from 2010-2020:2.0% per year
  18. 18. WASATCH FRONT NORTHGOVERNMENT050001000015000200002500030000350002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EmploymentTotalTotal Government (excluding education & health care & postal service) - Actual ProjectedSource: Department of Workforce ServicesProjected Total:30,252Projected Annual GrowthRate from 2010-2020:0.5% per year
  19. 19. WASATCH FRONT NORTHRETAIL TRADE050001000015000200002500030000350002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EmploymentTotalRetail Trade (Actual) ProjectedSource: Department of Workforce ServicesProjected Total:28,395Projected Annual GrowthRate from 2010-2020:1.7% per year
  20. 20. WASATCH FRONT NORTHHEALTH CARE & SOCIAL SERVICES050001000015000200002500030000350002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EmploymentTotalHealth Care and Social Services (Actual) ProjectedSource: Department of Workforce ServicesProjected Total:30,024Projected Annual GrowthRate from 2010-2020:3.3% per year
  21. 21. WASATCH FRONT NORTHMANUFACTURING050001000015000200002500030000350002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EmploymentTotalManufacturing (Actual) ProjectedSource: Department of Workforce ServicesProjected Total:24,565Projected Annual GrowthRate from 2010-2020:1.9% per year
  22. 22. WASATCH FRONT NORTHCONSTRUCTION050001000015000200002500030000350002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EmploymentTotalConstruction (Actual) ProjectedSource: Department of Workforce ServicesProjected Total:16,129Projected Annual GrowthRate from 2010-2020:3.5% per year
  23. 23. WASATCH FRONT NORTHPROFESSIONAL & TECHNICAL SERVICES050001000015000200002500030000350002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EmploymentTotalProfessional & Technical Services (Actual) ProjectedSource: Department of Workforce ServicesProjected Total:12,494Projected Annual GrowthRate from 2010-2020:3.0% per year
  24. 24. OTHER ECONOMIC ISSUESWHAT ELSE IS IMPACTING ECONOMIC GROWTH?
  25. 25. SEQUESTRATION• The sequester could affect as many as 11,000 people in Utah, resulting in$86 million in lost wages.• The automatic spending cuts of the Sequester will affect employmentdifferently in different industries and occupations. Regions with high levelsof federal government employment, like Weber County and DavisCounty, will be impacted more than other counties in the state.• The Department of Defense estimates that the furloughs at Hill Air ForceBase will equate to a 20 percent pay cut. The personal income ofindividuals that have to take mandatory unpaid furloughs willdecrease, which will negatively impact spending in these areas.• The potential exists for 16,430 Utah workers to lose access to job training.• The largest negative consequence of the Sequester is that it breedsuncertainty in the market, leading businesses and individuals to be lessconfident in the future of the economy. Uncertainty depresses businessinvestment and consumer spending, which negatively impacts economicgrowth.• The consensus amount economists and policymakers is that the majority ofthe spending cuts in the Sequester will be averted making Sequestration ashort-term issue.http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/sequester/interactive-mapUTAH
  26. 26. EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIShttp://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/04/european-economy-guide
  27. 27. C O N T A C T : T Y S O N S M I T H @ U T A H . G O VQUESTIONS?Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013

×