1. Chapter 2 Deteriorating Food and Oil Security

2. 20th Century was the oil century 1900 – the world produced 150 million barrels of oil 28billin barrels 180 fold increase Cheap oil enabled food production explosion along with population, urbanization, mobility 1900 30% in cities – today 50% Grain harvest increased 400% in 20th cent Mobility exploded – cars, trains, planes Today – an oil based civilization

3. PRODUCTION SOON FALLING 1981 was the peak of new discoveries 2006 – world pumped 38 billion barrels but discovered only 9 billion new World reserves in free-fall Half of world reserves used up – 1 trillion left FIRST TRILLION WAS EASY OIL WHAT’S LEFT IS TOUGH OIL DEEP OFF SHORE UNFRIENDLY COUNTRIES PEAK OIL IS AT HAND THIS IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT WORLD ZERO SUM GAME OVER OIL

4. Food and oil are hugely linked 1950-72 bushel of wheat could be traded for barrel of oil - $2 In late 2007 took 8 bushels of wheat to buy 1 barrel of oil Grain now pegged to Oil – over $60 / barrel is highly productive 2006 16% of crop went to fuel 2008 could be 30% WORLD PRICE OF GRAIN MOVING TO OIL PRICE EQUIVALENT Food will shift into fuel economy

5. PEAK OIL IS UPON US New production follows new discovery by about 40 years 1970 US produced 9.6 million bpd 2006 5.1 million bpd 47% decline Venezuela peaked UK Peaked 2000

6. Pre-peakers – Russia – WORLD’S LARGEST PRODUCER Eclipsed Saudi Arabia 2006 Canada – deadly tar sands Kazakhstan Algeria Angola Brazil Nigeria UAE Libya

7. Approaching production decline Mexico US 2nd largest suppliers 2004 3.4 million barrels per day Key field in steep decline Could be importer by 21015 China Saudi Arabia Largest field is 50 years old 2007 production of 8.9 million barrels down 6% Can pre-peak countries make up the difference for the rest?

8. Major oil companies Have not been any dramatic increases in exploration and development Seems that 95% of world’s oil already discovered Whole world has been seismically searched Extremely unlikely new fields to be found World demand increases annually 2m bpd Old fields decline annually 4m bpd Needs a whole new Saudi Arabia every few years – NOT SUSTAINABLE IF THE OIL CO’S HAD GOOD PROSPECTS THEY’D BE DEVELOPING THEM WORLD PRODUCTION OF 85M BPD DECLINED IN 2007 Of the top 20 fields ever discovered 18 discovered between 1917 and 1970’s NONE HAS COME SINCE THE 1970’S

9. THE AGE OF DIRTY, DANGEROUS, COSTLY OIL? We can expect to drop to 67 million bpd by 2020 – a 21% drop Oil supply per person drop of 32% in just 14 years The 5% of conventional oil left Arctic as it melts Alaska Deep deep deep TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE and carrageen Alberta – 1.1 trillion barrels Venezuela – .4 trillion barrels Rockies oil shale – carrageen SEVERAL BARRELS OF WATER FOR EACH BARREL OF OIL ALBERTA TAR SANDS – 7% US OIL NEEDS – 1.4 MILLION BPD

10. TAR SANDS ARE OUR DEATH Highly carbon intensive production – extensive use of natural gas 2 tons of sand for 1 barrel of oil Net energy yield is low – 2 out of each three barrels for just production – 3X DIRTIER MASSIVE LAND DESTRUCTION

11. WHEN PRODUCING COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES FACE THE FACT OF REDUCTION – THEY’LL RATION PRICES WILL DRIVE UP

12. EFFECT ON FOOD SUPPLY / COST OF FOOD

13. AGRICULTURE MASSIVELY OIL DEPENDENT Tractors Irrigation pumps Fertilizer Phosphate and potash mining Developing countries moving from draft animals to tractors Fertilizer uses 20% of farm energy use Urbanization necessitates fertilizer replace human waste World food shipments send nutrients elsewhere nutrients: nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium

14. Irrigation – manor energy user – INCREASING as water tables drop US – 19% of farm energy use India – water tables falling. 50% of ALL electricity for pumping water from wells!!!!! No-till farming is helping

15. Agriculture accounts for 1/5th of energy in us food system Transport processing, packaging, marketing, and kitchen preparation

16. US food economy uses as much energy as entire UK economy 12% for transportation from farm to consumer Air transport of food – fruit, etc – has exploded 16% canning, freezing, drying Future of long distance transport Days of the 3000 mile ceasersalid is ending Packaging – 7% Can cost more than the food An empty cereal box EMPTY would cost about the same

17. KITCHEN IS THE GREATEST ENERGY CONSUMER COOKING REFRIGERATION – ELECTRICITY

18. OUR OIL BASED GRAIN PRODUCTION CANNOT SURVIVE 1950-1973 GRAIN HARVEST INCREASED 2X, MORE THAN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF AGRICULTURE 1950-1990 SCIENCE RAISED YIELDS FROM 1.1 TO 2.5 TONS PER HECTARE SINCE 1990 GROWTH SLOWED FROM 2.2% INCREASE TO 1.1% INCREASE THE EASY STEPS WERE DONE

19. CAUSES OF THE 23 YEAR PRODUCTIVITY RISE IRRIGATION FERTILIZER USE GROWTH HIGH YIELDING VARIETIES OF GRAIN – CORN, WHEAT, RYE

20. GRAIN INCREASE NOW FALLS BELOW POPULATION GROWTH SINCE 1994 PRODUCTION PEAKED IN 1984 12% DROP PER PERSON

21. GROWTH IN SOYBEAN HARVEST IS WHAT HAS AVERTED MASS HUNGER LIVESTOCK, FISH AND POULTRY SUPLEMENT SOY IS DOMINANT IN WORLD AGRICUTLTURE – METEORIC BY 1990 MORE LAND USED BY SOY THAN WHEAT

22. BUT WHEAT, RICE AND CORN EXPANSION IS MOST CRUCIAL TO AVERT WORLD HUNGER 7 OUT OF 8 OF THE LAST YEARS PRODUCTION HAS FALLEN BELOW CONSUMPTION GRAIN RESERVES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL IN 34 YEARS COMBINED 3 DAMANDS ARE OVERWHELMING FARMERS – 78M NEW PEOPLE PER YEAR BILLIONS MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN FOOD BEING SHUNTED TO FUEL FARMERS FAICING NEW CONSTRAINTS 50 YEAR IRRIGATION EXPANSION HAS ENDED IRRIGATION SHRINKING WELLS GOING DRY- WATER TABLES FALLING WATER DIVERTED TO CITIES CHINA’S WHEAT HARVEST HAS DROPPED BY 20%

23. FOR EVERY 1 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURE – 10% DECLINE IN GRAIN YIELDS MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS MORE INTENSE DROUGHTS

24. CONVERSION OF CROPLAND TO NON-FARM USES ACCELERATING URGAN SPRAWL INDUSTRIALIZING COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA CONSTRUCTION OF HOMES, FACTORIES, ROADS, HIGHWAYS, PARKING LOTS

25. CARS AND PEOPLE COMPETE FOR CROPS WHEN OIL JUMPED ABOVE $60 PB 2005 ETHINOL INVESTMENT EXPLODED GRAIN USED IN ETHANOL DOUBLING 1/5TH OF US GRAIN NOW GOING TO FUEL LESS THAN 4% OF US FUEL BRAZIL USING HALF OF ITS SUGAR CANE HARVEST INTO FUEL EUROPE USES BIODEISEL – INCREASING TURNING TO PALM OIL INDONESIA AND MALASIA Causing massive deforestation Netherlands withdrawing from the practice to avoid climate destruction

26. 2-billion-ton world grain harvest 2006 Corn, now the world's dominant feed grain as well as the leading ethanol feedstock, overtook wheat roughly a decade ago World corn harvest exceeded 700 mil­lion tons Wheat was just under 600 million tons Rice was 420 million tons 85 percent of the 2-billion-ton world grain harvest

27. U.S. corn production is huge, accounting for 40 percent of the global harvest and two thirds of world corn exports The corn harvest of Iowa, the leading corn-producing state, exceeds the entire grain harvest of Canada

28. Iowa is also the epicenter of ethanol distillery construction Planned Iowa distilleries 2.7 billion bushels Total Iowa corn harvest only 2.2 billion bushels Japan, Egypt, and Mexico leading importers

29. Ethanol distillation drives up world food prices September 2007 food prices nearly doubled 2 years earlier Wheat prices more than doubled Soy up more than half

30. Massive hardship where grain is a staple Mexico 2007 tortilla price up 60% Crowds of 75,000 protested Government price controls instituted Italy – pasta boycotts UK worrying about rising bread prices

31. The grain required to fill an SUV's 25-gallon tank with ethanol just once will feed one person for a whole year

32. If the entire U.S. grain harvest were to be converted to ethanol, it would satisfy at most 18 percent of U.S. automo­tive fuel needs

33. In this new situation the world price of grain is driving up toward its oil-equivalent value The emerging competition between the owners of the world's 860 million automobiles and the 2 billion poorest peo­ple is uncharted territory for humanity The average income of the world's automobile owners is roughly $30,000 a year

34. Although there are no alternatives to food for people, there are alternatives to using food-based fuels The 4 percent of U.S. automotive fuel currently supplied from ethanol could be achieved several times over—and at a fraction of the cost—simply by raising auto fuel-efficiency standards by 20 percent

35. Other ways to leave food to feed people Electric cars and plug-in hybrids Wind for the gaso­line equivalent of less than $1 a gallon fuel from fast-growing trees, switchgrass, prairie grass mix­tures, or other cellulosic materials, which can be grown on wasteland Jatropha - golf ball-sized fruit with seeds containing oil that can be turned into biodiesel - Jatropha diesel can be produced for $43 per barrel

36. The World Beyond Peak Oil Few countries are planning for a reduction in oil use U.S. Department of Energy expect world oil consumption to go from roughly 85 million barrels or so a day at present to close to 120 million barrels a day by 2030??!!?!?!??!

37. Modern cities are another product of the oil age Until 1900, urbanization was, with a few exceptions, a slow, barely perceptible process When the last century began, there were only a few cities with a million people. Today there are more than 400 such cities, and 20 mega-cities have 10 million or more residents The metabolism of cities depends on concentrating vast amounts of food, water, and materials and then dispersing the resulting garbage and human waste

38. "There will eventually be a great scramble to get out of the suburbs as the world oil crisis deep­ens and the property values of suburban homes plummet."

39. The food sector will be affected in two ways Food will become more costly Diets will be altered as people move down the food chain. Diets will thus become more closely attuned to local products and more seasonal in nature.

40. Cheap airfares may soon become history

41. Air freight may be hit even harder, perhaps leading at some point to an absolute decline

42. The coming downturn in oil and to plan for it even though it will become one of the great fault lines in world economic history

43. Developing countries will be hit doubly hard United States burns more gasoline than the next 20 countries combined Will world popula­tion growth survive a continuing decline in world oil produc­tion? How will a shrinking oil supply be allocated among countries? By the market? By negotiated international agree­ments? By war? Can civilization itself survive the stresses asso­ciated with falling oil production at a time when food prices are rising and the stresses from climate change are mounting?

44. Food Insecurity and Failing States 50 years of hunger reduction is now being reversed 2007, James Morris, head of the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), announced that 18,000 children are now dying each day from hunger and related causes The number of people in developing countries who are hungry and malnourished, which declined from 960 million in 1970 to 800 million in 1996, has turned upward, reaching 830 million in 2003

45. One of the manifestations of a sharp rise in grain prices is a correspondingly sharp drop in food assistance United States, by far the largest food aid donor, saw the price of a ton of food aid in 2007 climb to $611, up from $363 per ton in 2004

46. FAO and WFP each year release an assessment of crop and food conditions that lists the countries in dire need of food assistance. In May 2007, a total of 33 coun­tries with a combined population of 763 million were on this list. 17 were in need of external food assistance because of recent civil strife and conflict. top 20 list of failing states, including Afghanistan, Burundi, Cote d'lvoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, and Zimbab­we

47. The most immediate threat to food security may be the diversion of an ever-larger share of the U.S. grain harvest into the production of fuel for cars