Population and employment growth projections of the TPO planning area help to predict growth by the year 2040. This is one of the first key steps in the development of the 2040 Long Range Plan that intends to support multimodal and alternative transportation projects as well as biking, walking, and automobiles in high growth locations. The population will increase by 64.81% and employment by 58.18%. Most growth will occur in the SW annexation area with additional population growth along Jenkins Road corridor. Employment growth primarily in the SW annexation area as well with additional employment growth along Kings Highway corridor. Commercial growth will be scattered throughout the TPO area. Service employment is the largest component of employment growth.

1. Review of 2040
Population and
Employment Data
January 13, 2014

2. • Socio-economic data (SE Data) defined
• Why forecasts are developed
• Developing future estimates
• Observations on 2040 forecast
• Maps
• Using the forecasts to inform transportation decisions
Overview

3. Two primary components
• Population
o Permanent Residents (Census)
o Future based on historic and projected trends
o Distributed among housing types
• Employment
o Actual jobs available within St. Lucie County
o Relationship with historic population is used to project
future employment
Definition of socio-economic data

4. • Federal statues require the use a travel demand model to project future
traffic volumes.
• Inputs into the travel demand model include population and employment
projections for the year 2040.
• Resulting traffic projections are considered in determining needed
improvements in 2040.
Why forecasts are developed

5. • Countywide estimates for population
o University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)
o Staff / technical committee review
• Control Totals:
Developing Future Estimates
2010 2040 Growth Percent
Population 275,598 454,200 178,602 64.81%
Employment 95,059 150,361 55,302 58.18%

6. • Employment
o Based on 2010 ratios
o Broken down into 3 categories
2010 2040 Growth Percent
Employment 95,059 150,361 55,302 58.18%
Industrial 18,260 29,550 11,290 61.83%
Commercial 23,897 38,088 14,191 59.38%
Service 52,902 82,723 29,821 56.37%
Developing Future Estimates

7. • Population growth primarily in the SW annexation area with
additional population growth along Jenkins Road corridor
• Employment growth primarily in the SW annexation area with
additional employment growth along Kings Highway corridor
• Industrial employment growth also in Airport area
• Commercial employment growth scattered throughout TPO area
• Service employment is largest component of employment growth
Observations on the 2040 Forecast

8. Maps - Future Land Use

9. Maps - Vacant developable land - 1 acre or less

10. Maps - Approved development

11. Maps - Population Growth

12. Maps - Employment Growth

13. Employment growth- industrial

14. Employment growth- commercial

15. Employment growth- service

16. Using the forecast
• Future population and employment are inputs to the travel model
• Existing travel patterns are used to simulate future travel
• Allows for quantitative identification of needs
• Decisions about future roads or transit service

17. Maps - Population Growth

18. Maps - Population Growth

19. Questions?