St. Charles County                 Association of RealtorsThe Economic and Housing  Outlook for St. Charles               ...
The Economic and Housing             Outlook For St. Charles County Despite weak national and regional recoveries, the St...
U.S. Unemployment Remains Stubbornly                                            High—Especially Broader Measures          ...
Weakest Regions Are the Far West,                          Southeast, and Upper Midwest                                   ...
We’re Making Slow Progress                                              Closing A Huge Employment Gap                     ...
St. Charles County Unemployment Rate                      Is Lowest In the Region: 6.3% in April                          ...
Employment in St. Charles County                                              Exceeds Its Pre-Recession Peak              ...
Rest of the St. Louis Metro Area                                          Remains Below Pre-Recession Peaks               ...
Homebuilding Activity Remains                                         Depressed Throughout the Midwest                    ...
St. Louis-Area Homebuilding                                             Declined Less Than Elsewhere                      ...
St. Charles CO Peak-to-Trough Decline                                          Relatively Mild Thru 2010; Weak 2011       ...
St. Charles County Remains #1 or #2                                            Homebuilding County in Missouri            ...
St. Charles Home Prices Have Tracked                                Regional and National Trends—Still WeakDollars        ...
St. Charles Home Sales Also                                                 Tracked National SalesNumber of homes         ...
March 2006: At the Peak of the HousingBoom, Mortgage Conditions Were PristinePercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in ...
March 2007: Falling House Prices,   Slowing Economy Begin to ShowPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure,...
March 2008: Financial Crisis Is Underway,    Economy Has Entered RecessionPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in For...
March 2009: At Its Worst, Mortgage Distress  Was Concentrated in SW, SE, and MW  Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or...
March 2010: At Its Worst, MortgageDistress Was Concentrated in SW, SE, and                  MWPercent of Mortgages 30+ Day...
March 2011: Mortgage Distress RemainsElevated Despite Economic StabilizationPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in F...
March 2012: Mortgage Distress RemainsElevated Despite Economic StabilizationPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in F...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2005              Source:       ...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2006              Source:       ...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2007              Source:       ...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2008              Source:       ...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2009              Source:       ...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2010              Source:       ...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2011              Source:       ...
Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code       March 2012              Source:       ...
Judicial Foreclosure States Generally      Have Bigger Foreclosure Inventories    Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due o...
Share of Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or inForeclosure By ZIP Code       April 2012                    Source:           ...
St. Charles County Employment                                              Doubled Between 1985 and 2005                  ...
Is the St. Charles County Job-                                                    Creation Miracle Finished?              ...
Population Growth Has Slowed                                     St. Charles County Resident Population                   ...
Aging of the Population Will Affect                                  St. Charles County, Too                              ...
Has St. Charles Housing Market Reached A                           Turning Point—Or Another False Recovery?Units          ...
In Sum: St. Charles County Economy             and Housing Market Face Challenges Despite weak national and regional reco...
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Dr. William Emmons of the Federal Reserve presentation to SCCAR University

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Dr. William Emmons of the Federal Reserve presentation to SCCAR University

  1. 1. St. Charles County Association of RealtorsThe Economic and Housing Outlook for St. Charles June 6, 2012 William R. Emmons Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis William.R.Emmons@stls.frb.org These comments do not necessarily represent the views of theFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System. 1
  2. 2. The Economic and Housing Outlook For St. Charles County Despite weak national and regional recoveries, the St. Charles County economy remains one of the strongest in the state.  Unemployment rate at 6.3 percent, vs. 8.1 nationally (April).  Employment growth has resumed. The St. Charles housing market faces significant challenges to recover its pre-recession vigor.  Homebuilding, house prices, home sales still weak.  Mortgage performance good, not great.  The key questions:  Will employment and income growth pick up again? 2  How will the aging population affect the market?
  3. 3. U.S. Unemployment Remains Stubbornly High—Especially Broader Measures U6 Unemployment Measure: Unemployed+Marginally Attached+Part Time Percent of labor force plus marginally attached U3 Offical Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force 18 18 Percent 16 16 Broad measure: 14.8% 14 14 12 12 10 10 Official measure: 8 8.2% 8Gray shadingindicates periods of 6 6national economicrecession as definedby the National 4 4Bureau of EconomicResearch. 2 2 00 05 10 15 3 Sources:ofBureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics Source: Bureau Labor Statistics Monthly data through May 2012
  4. 4. Weakest Regions Are the Far West, Southeast, and Upper Midwest Highest unemploymentDarker shading represents a higher level of unemployment. US unemployment rate in April 2012: 8.1% rate after 2.75 years of economic recovery since 1940 4 Source: GeoFred (http://geofred.stlouisfed.org) Monthly data for April 2012
  5. 5. We’re Making Slow Progress Closing A Huge Employment Gap U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Millions of employed persons Millions of 150 Trend implied 150 employed 145 by 2000s 145 persons expansion 140 140 135 2009-12 trend: On 135 Trend implied track to hit previous 130 130 by 1990s trend line in 2018 125 expansion 125 120 120 115 115Gray shadingindicates periods ofnational economic 110 110recession as definedby the National 105 105Bureau of EconomicResearch. 100 100 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 5 Source: Haver Analytics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly data through May 2012
  6. 6. St. Charles County Unemployment Rate Is Lowest In the Region: 6.3% in April Darker shading represents a higher level of unemployment.St. Charles County has the lowestunemployment rate within a 50-mile radius—6.3% in April 2012. 6Source: GeoFred (http://geofred.stlouisfed.org) Monthly data for April 2012
  7. 7. Employment in St. Charles County Exceeds Its Pre-Recession Peak Number of Employed Persons in St. Charles County MO Thousands, seasonally adjusted Thousands 190 190of employed persons St. Charles 185 County 185 180 180 175 175 170 170Gray shadingindicates periods ofnational economicrecession as defined 165 165by the NationalBureau of EconomicResearch. 160 160 00 05 10 15 7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Statistics /Haver Analytics Source: Bureau of Labor Quarterly data through Q1.2012
  8. 8. Rest of the St. Louis Metro Area Remains Below Pre-Recession Peaks St. Charles County Employment St. Louis County Employment St. Louis City Employment Jefferson County Employment Indexes 120 120equal 100 in 2000 115 St. Charles 115 County 110 110 105 105 Jefferson 100 100 County 95 95Gray shading 90 St. Louis 90indicates periods ofnational economic Countyrecession as defined 85 85by the NationalBureau of Economic St. Louis CityResearch. 80 80 00 05 10 15 8 Source: Bureau ofBLS /Haver Sources: Labor Statistics Quarterly data through Q1.2012
  9. 9. Homebuilding Activity Remains Depressed Throughout the Midwest Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI Private Building Permits Issued (seasly adj) St. Louis MO-IL Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Kansas City MO-KS Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Springfield MO Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Number of 15000 15000 housing 10000 10000 units 5000 5000 2000 Chicago 2000 St. Louis 1000 1000 Kansas CityGray shading 500 500indicates periods ofnational economic Springfield MOrecession as definedby the National 200 200Bureau of EconomicResearch. 100 100 00 05 10 15 9 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012
  10. 10. St. Louis-Area Homebuilding Declined Less Than Elsewhere Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI Private Building Permits Issued (seasly adj) St. Louis MO-IL Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Kansas City MO-KS Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Springfield MO Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Indexes: 110 110 100 100 Average 90 90 level in 2005 80 80 equals 100 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 St. Louis 30 30 Springfield MO Kansas CityGray shading 20 20indicates periods ofnational economicrecession as defined Chicagoby the NationalBureau of EconomicResearch. 10 10 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 10 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012
  11. 11. St. Charles CO Peak-to-Trough Decline Relatively Mild Thru 2010; Weak 2011 St Charles County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2004) Jackson County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2005) St Louis County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2004) Greene County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2005) Indexes: 100 100 Average level 90 90 in 2004 equals 80 80 100 in St. 70 70 Charles and St. 60 60 Louis Counties; 50 50 average level in 2005 equals 40 40 100 in Jackson Greene County and Greene (Springfield) 30 30 Counties St. Louis County St. Charles CountyGray shading 20 20indicates periods of Jackson Countynational economicrecession as defined (Kansas City)by the NationalBureau of EconomicResearch. 10 10 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 11 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012
  12. 12. St. Charles County Remains #1 or #2 Homebuilding County in Missouri St Charles County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Jackson County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) St Louis County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Greene County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted) Number of 5000 5000 housing 4000 4000 units 3000 3000 2000 2000 St. Charles County 1000 1000 Jackson County (Kansas City)Gray shading 500 St. Louis County 500indicates periods ofnational economicrecession as defined Greene Countyby the National (Springfield)Bureau of EconomicResearch. 200 200 00 05 10 15 12 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012
  13. 13. St. Charles Home Prices Have Tracked Regional and National Trends—Still WeakDollars 13 Sources: Zillow; St. Charles County Association of Realtors Annual data through 2011
  14. 14. St. Charles Home Sales Also Tracked National SalesNumber of homes 14 Sources: National Association of Realtors; St. Charles County Association of Realtors Annual data through 2011
  15. 15. March 2006: At the Peak of the HousingBoom, Mortgage Conditions Were PristinePercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2006 15 Source: Lender Processing Services
  16. 16. March 2007: Falling House Prices, Slowing Economy Begin to ShowPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2007 16 Source: Lender Processing Services
  17. 17. March 2008: Financial Crisis Is Underway, Economy Has Entered RecessionPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2008 17 Source: Lender Processing Services
  18. 18. March 2009: At Its Worst, Mortgage Distress Was Concentrated in SW, SE, and MW Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2009 18 Source: Lender Processing Services
  19. 19. March 2010: At Its Worst, MortgageDistress Was Concentrated in SW, SE, and MWPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2010 19 Source: Lender Processing Services
  20. 20. March 2011: Mortgage Distress RemainsElevated Despite Economic StabilizationPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2011 20 Source: Lender Processing Services
  21. 21. March 2012: Mortgage Distress RemainsElevated Despite Economic StabilizationPercent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2012 21 Source: Lender Processing Services
  22. 22. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2005 Source: Lender Processing Services 22
  23. 23. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2006 Source: Lender Processing Services 23
  24. 24. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2007 Source: Lender Processing Services 24
  25. 25. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services 25
  26. 26. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services 26
  27. 27. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services 27
  28. 28. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services 28
  29. 29. Share of Missouri Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure By ZIP Code March 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services 29
  30. 30. Judicial Foreclosure States Generally Have Bigger Foreclosure Inventories Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County March 2012 J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J JJ 30 Source: Lender Processing Services
  31. 31. Share of Mortgages 30+ Days Delinquent or inForeclosure By ZIP Code April 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services 31
  32. 32. St. Charles County Employment Doubled Between 1985 and 2005 St. Charles County Employment St. Louis County Employment St. Louis City Employment Jefferson County Employment Employed 600 600 persons in St. Louis 500 500 thousands County 400 400 300 300 200 St. Charles 200 St. Louis City County 150 150Gray shading Jefferson 100 100indicates periods of Countynational economicrecession as definedby the NationalBureau of EconomicResearch. 50 50 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 32 Sources:ofBLS /Haver Source: Bureau Labor Statistics Monthly data through April 2012
  33. 33. Is the St. Charles County Job- Creation Miracle Finished? St. Charles County Five-Year Annualized Employment Growth Rate Percent change from 60 months ago, annualized St. Louis MSA Minus St. Charles CO Five-Year Annualized Employment Growth Rate Percent change from 60 months ago, annualizedPercent change 6 6from five years ago, 5 5 annualized 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 St. Charles 1Gray shading Countyindicates periods of 0 0national economicrecession as defined St. Louis metropolitanby the National -1 -1Bureau of Economic area excluding St.Research. Charles County -2 -2 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 33 Source: Haver Analytics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly data through April 2012
  34. 34. Population Growth Has Slowed St. Charles County Resident Population St. Louis County Resident Population St. Louis City Resident Population Jefferson County Resident PopulationResidents 1100000 1100000 1000000 St. Louis 1000000 900000 County 900000 800000 800000 700000 700000 600000 600000 500000 500000 400000 St. Louis City 400000 St. Charles County 300000 300000 Jefferson 200000 County 200000 100000 100000 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 34 Sources: Census Bureau /Haver Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012
  35. 35. Aging of the Population Will Affect St. Charles County, Too State ofPercent Missouri St. Louis County St. Charles County Data Projections 35 Source: Census Bureau Annual data through 2010; projections through 2030
  36. 36. Has St. Charles Housing Market Reached A Turning Point—Or Another False Recovery?Units 36 Source: St. Charles County Association of Realtors Monthly data through April 2012
  37. 37. In Sum: St. Charles County Economy and Housing Market Face Challenges Despite weak national and regional recoveries, the St. Charles County economy remains one of the strongest in the state.  Unemployment rate at 6.3 percent, vs. 8.1 nationally (April).  Employment growth has resumed. The St. Charles housing market faces significant challenges to recover its pre-recession vigor.  Homebuilding, house prices, home sales still weak.  Mortgage performance good, not great.  The key questions:  Will employment and income growth pick up again? 37  How will the aging population affect the market?

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