June 2013 IRMAC slides
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June 2013 IRMAC slides

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Presentation for IRMAC in Toronto

Presentation for IRMAC in Toronto

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June 2013 IRMAC slides Presentation Transcript

  • 1. SOLVEfor INTERESTING OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL. BIG DATA AND THE QUANTIFIED SOCIETY IRMAC 2013 ANNUAL LUNCH
  • 2. Denver International Airport
  • 3. “Managing information and data as a key enterprise asset.”
  • 4. It’s not about data.
  • 5. (This is called foreshadowing.)
  • 6. First: What’s Big Data?
  • 7. Breadcrumb trail http://www.flickr.com/photos/jenny-pics/3239638494/sizes/l/
  • 8. Big Data: It’s people.
  • 9. A technology shift.
  • 10. The duck definition.
  • 11. Large amounts of information Public and private Easily linked and collected Stored just because we can Analyzed by humans and machines In near real time Applied to business Usable by everyone Fed back into the system
  • 12. Volume (the “big” part) Velocity (the “fast” part) Variety (the “anything” part) Pick any two
  • 13. BIG * FAST * VARIED = K
  • 14. None of this is new.
  • 15. What’s new is that the constant dropped to nearly zero.
  • 16. Big, fast, and varied got cheap.
  • 17. Uses 75% less coal.
  • 18. WTF?
  • 19. Shouldn’t more efficiency mean less consumption?
  • 20. more consumption. Efficiency means lower costs means new uses means more demand means
  • 21. Big Data is about abundance.
  • 22. (Abundance also means a billion bad data managers.)
  • 23. Second: Good or bad?
  • 24. Relational Statistical BIG
  • 25. “All your friends are poor” is an awkward conversation.
  • 26. A force for good. Ward off disease. Pinpoint disasters. Reveal corruption. Make cities smarter. Improve how we teach.
  • 27. Big healthcare
  • 28. Big philanthropy
  • 29. Big commuting
  • 30. A force for bad. Erode our privacy. Justify prejudices. Polarize groups. Leak private truths.
  • 31. Big prejudice
  • 32. Audience participation time!
  • 33. How amusing.
  • 34. “…nobody notices offers they do not get. And if these absent opportunities start following certain social patterns (for example not offering them to certain races, genders or sexual preferences) they can have a deep civil rights effect.” Anders Sandberg, Oxford University
  • 35. Personalization looks a lot like prejudice.
  • 36. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/ Big nanny state
  • 37. Big radio
  • 38. 0 15 30 2007 2012 Times a song in “heavy rotation” is played each day Every 4h Every 55m
  • 39. Don’t feel bad. Don’t feel bad. Even Einstein had a therapist.
  • 40. Third: Two main camps
  • 41. Semantic idealists.
  • 42. “It has never been spread out, yet,” said Mein Herr. “The farmers objected: they said it would cover the whole country, and shut out the sunlight! So we now use the country itself, as its own map, and I assure you it does nearly as well.” 3) Lewis Carroll’s Sylvie and Bruno Concluded (1893)
  • 43. Chaotic nihilists.
  • 44. Urban Dictionary
  • 45. Chaotic nihilist Semantic idealist
  • 46. Chaotic nihilist Semantic idealist
  • 47. Fourth: We’re bad at data
  • 48. Broken windows http://www.flickr.com/photos/shoes_on_wires/3348377521/sizes/l/
  • 49. Roe V. Wade
  • 50. Leaded gasoline http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevensnodgrass/4385045639/
  • 51. Winter tires http://www.flickr.com/photos/highwaysagency/6256644401/sizes/l/
  • 52. Ice cream and drowning http://www.flickr.com/photos/wtlphotos/1086968783
  • 53. “At least one of my kids is a girl.”
  • 54. What are the chances the other is a boy?
  • 55. BB BG GB GG
  • 56. GB GG BG 2 of 3 (66%) are boys.
  • 57. “A subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence.” (AKA Bayes’ Theorem.)
  • 58. “Anyone who values truth should stop worshipping reason.” (AKA the real world.)
  • 59. We prefer false positives.
  • 60. Wooly mammoth http://www.flickr.com/photos/pong/172438102/sizes/o/
  • 61. Sun temple http://www.flickr.com/photos/30787002@N02/3298693694/sizes/l/
  • 62. Polarizing through tone
  • 63. Pew and political polarization
  • 64. We’re bad at this Mistake correlation for causality Seek truthiness rather than fact Find patterns where they don’t exist Easily swayed by tone Side with our tribes Dig in and ignore new evidence
  • 65. Athenian swimming pools
  • 66. Kenya 28,400,000 America 204,000,000 Obama born in America: 87.8%
  • 67. Fifth: Sloth
  • 68. 24 months ago, the average person was still afraid of IT.
  • 69. Today, the average person is terrified of being without it.
  • 70. These are quickly becoming our prosthetic brains
  • 71. Don’t worry, there’s more.
  • 72. “Where’s a good sushi restaurant?” Nearby That friends like Within price range Novel Known Within diet restrictions No allergies Location Social graph Personal finances Personality Weight, activity Medical history
  • 73. A good brain knows when to interrupt.
  • 74. “Excuse me, but OMG best sushi joint!” Nearby That friends like Within price range Novel Known Within diet restrictions No allergies Location Social graph Personal finances Personality Weight, activity Medical history
  • 75. “Excuse me, but OMG best sushi joint!” Visits, pays, & reviews. Ignores.
  • 76. Sixth: What it’s really about
  • 77. 525,000 state & local officers Under 25 officers per precinct 130 million incident reports 200,000 uses of force 31% keep computer files
  • 78. Evidence.com
  • 79. Hard drive
  • 80. This is about analysis on a level playing field.
  • 81. High Low RewardLow High Risk
  • 82. A better prediction of the future means a lower risk at the present. This fundamentally changes the net present value of investments.
  • 83. This is about dramatically changing economic fundamentals.
  • 84. John Boyd can shoot you down.
  • 85. The OODA loop.
  • 86. This is about reducing organizational cycle time.
  • 87. “The right information in the right place just changes your life.” - Stewart Brand “Design is the human capacity to plan and produce desired outcomes.” - Bruce Mau
  • 88. This is about designing interruptions and producing outcomes.
  • 89. Assets that don’t produce results are called liabilities.
  • 90. The Big Data revolution is your chance to go beyond asset management.
  • 91. Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
  • 92. ARCHIMEDES HAD TAKEN BATHS BEFORE.
  • 93. Once, a leader convinced others in the absence of data.
  • 94. Now, a leader knows what questions to ask.
  • 95. SOLVEfor INTERESTING OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL. Alistair Croll @acroll www.solveforinteresting.com alistair@solveforinteresting.com THANKS!
  • 96. More: The long game
  • 97. Live prototypes Planned for 1024x768 minimum resolution and 32 MB memory Last compiled in 1998: Works with Explorer 4.0 and Netscape 4.5
  • 98. Every interface works both ways.
  • 99. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/