SOLVEfor
INTERESTING
OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL.
BIG DATA
AND THE QUANTIFIED SOCIETY
IRMAC 2013 ANNUAL LUNCH
Denver International Airport
“Managing information and
data as a key enterprise asset.”
It’s not about data.
(This is called
foreshadowing.)
First:
What’s Big Data?
Breadcrumb trail
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jenny-pics/3239638494/sizes/l/
Big Data:
It’s people.
A technology shift.
The duck definition.
Large amounts
of information
Public
and private
Easily linked
and collected
Stored just
because we can
Analyzed by
humans ...
Volume
(the “big”
part)
Velocity
(the “fast”
part)
Variety
(the
“anything” part)
Pick
any
two
BIG * FAST * VARIED = K
None of this is new.
What’s new is that the
constant dropped to
nearly zero.
Big, fast, and varied
got cheap.
Uses 75% less coal.
WTF?
Shouldn’t more efficiency
mean less consumption?
more consumption.
Efficiency means
lower costs means
new uses means
more demand means
Big Data is about
abundance.
(Abundance also
means a billion bad
data managers.)
Second:
Good or bad?
Relational
Statistical
BIG
“All your friends are poor” is
an awkward conversation.
A force
for good.
Ward off disease.
Pinpoint disasters.
Reveal corruption.
Make cities smarter.
Improve how we teach.
Big healthcare
Big philanthropy
Big commuting
A force
for bad.
Erode our privacy.
Justify prejudices.
Polarize groups.
Leak private truths.
Big prejudice
Audience participation time!
How amusing.
“…nobody notices offers they do not
get. And if these absent opportunities
start following certain social patterns
(for exa...
Personalization looks a lot
like prejudice.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/
Big nanny state
Big radio
0
15
30
2007 2012
Times a song in “heavy rotation”
is played each day
Every 4h
Every 55m
Don’t feel bad.
Don’t feel bad.
Even Einstein
had a therapist.
Third:
Two main camps
Semantic idealists.
“It has never been spread out,
yet,” said Mein Herr. “The
farmers objected: they said it
would cover the whole country,
an...
Chaotic nihilists.
Urban Dictionary
Chaotic nihilist
Semantic idealist
Chaotic nihilist
Semantic idealist
Fourth:
We’re bad at data
Broken windows
http://www.flickr.com/photos/shoes_on_wires/3348377521/sizes/l/
Roe V. Wade
Leaded gasoline
http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevensnodgrass/4385045639/
Winter tires
http://www.flickr.com/photos/highwaysagency/6256644401/sizes/l/
Ice cream and drowning
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wtlphotos/1086968783
“At least one of my kids
is a girl.”
What are the chances the
other is a boy?
BB BG
GB GG
GB GG BG
2 of 3 (66%) are boys.
“A subjective degree of belief
should rationally change to
account for evidence.”
(AKA Bayes’ Theorem.)
“Anyone who
values truth
should stop
worshipping
reason.”
(AKA the real world.)
We prefer false positives.
Wooly mammoth
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pong/172438102/sizes/o/
Sun temple
http://www.flickr.com/photos/30787002@N02/3298693694/sizes/l/
Polarizing through tone
Pew and political
polarization
We’re bad at this
Mistake correlation for causality
Seek truthiness rather than fact
Find patterns where they don’t exist
...
Athenian swimming pools
Kenya
28,400,000
America
204,000,000
Obama born in America: 87.8%
Fifth:
Sloth
24 months ago, the average
person was still afraid of IT.
Today, the average person is
terrified of being without it.
These are quickly becoming
our prosthetic brains
Don’t worry, there’s more.
“Where’s a
good sushi
restaurant?”
Nearby
That friends
like
Within price
range
Novel Known
Within diet
restrictions
No all...
A good brain
knows when to interrupt.
“Excuse me,
but OMG
best sushi
joint!”
Nearby
That friends
like
Within price
range
Novel Known
Within diet
restrictions
No...
“Excuse me,
but OMG best
sushi joint!”
Visits,
pays, &
reviews.
Ignores.
Sixth:
What it’s really about
525,000 state & local officers
Under 25 officers per precinct
130 million incident reports
200,000 uses of force
31% keep comp...
Evidence.com
Hard drive
This is about analysis on a
level playing field.
High
Low
RewardLow High
Risk
A better prediction of the
future means a lower risk at
the present.
This fundamentally changes
the net present value of
i...
This is about dramatically
changing economic
fundamentals.
John Boyd
can shoot
you down.
The OODA loop.
This is about reducing
organizational cycle time.
“The right
information in the
right place just
changes your life.”
- Stewart Brand
“Design is the
human capacity to
plan a...
This is about designing
interruptions and
producing outcomes.
Assets that don’t produce
results are called liabilities.
The Big Data revolution is
your chance to go beyond
asset management.
Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
ARCHIMEDES
HAD TAKEN
BATHS BEFORE.
Once, a leader convinced
others in the absence of data.
Now, a leader knows what
questions to ask.
SOLVEfor
INTERESTING
OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL.
Alistair Croll
@acroll
www.solveforinteresting.com
alistair@solveforinteresti...
More:
The long game
Live prototypes
Planned for 1024x768 minimum
resolution and 32 MB memory
Last compiled in 1998: Works with
Explorer 4.0 an...
Every interface works both ways.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
June 2013 IRMAC slides
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

June 2013 IRMAC slides

309

Published on

Presentation for IRMAC in Toronto

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
309
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
11
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "June 2013 IRMAC slides"

  1. 1. SOLVEfor INTERESTING OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL. BIG DATA AND THE QUANTIFIED SOCIETY IRMAC 2013 ANNUAL LUNCH
  2. 2. Denver International Airport
  3. 3. “Managing information and data as a key enterprise asset.”
  4. 4. It’s not about data.
  5. 5. (This is called foreshadowing.)
  6. 6. First: What’s Big Data?
  7. 7. Breadcrumb trail http://www.flickr.com/photos/jenny-pics/3239638494/sizes/l/
  8. 8. Big Data: It’s people.
  9. 9. A technology shift.
  10. 10. The duck definition.
  11. 11. Large amounts of information Public and private Easily linked and collected Stored just because we can Analyzed by humans and machines In near real time Applied to business Usable by everyone Fed back into the system
  12. 12. Volume (the “big” part) Velocity (the “fast” part) Variety (the “anything” part) Pick any two
  13. 13. BIG * FAST * VARIED = K
  14. 14. None of this is new.
  15. 15. What’s new is that the constant dropped to nearly zero.
  16. 16. Big, fast, and varied got cheap.
  17. 17. Uses 75% less coal.
  18. 18. WTF?
  19. 19. Shouldn’t more efficiency mean less consumption?
  20. 20. more consumption. Efficiency means lower costs means new uses means more demand means
  21. 21. Big Data is about abundance.
  22. 22. (Abundance also means a billion bad data managers.)
  23. 23. Second: Good or bad?
  24. 24. Relational Statistical BIG
  25. 25. “All your friends are poor” is an awkward conversation.
  26. 26. A force for good. Ward off disease. Pinpoint disasters. Reveal corruption. Make cities smarter. Improve how we teach.
  27. 27. Big healthcare
  28. 28. Big philanthropy
  29. 29. Big commuting
  30. 30. A force for bad. Erode our privacy. Justify prejudices. Polarize groups. Leak private truths.
  31. 31. Big prejudice
  32. 32. Audience participation time!
  33. 33. How amusing.
  34. 34. “…nobody notices offers they do not get. And if these absent opportunities start following certain social patterns (for example not offering them to certain races, genders or sexual preferences) they can have a deep civil rights effect.” Anders Sandberg, Oxford University
  35. 35. Personalization looks a lot like prejudice.
  36. 36. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/ Big nanny state
  37. 37. Big radio
  38. 38. 0 15 30 2007 2012 Times a song in “heavy rotation” is played each day Every 4h Every 55m
  39. 39. Don’t feel bad. Don’t feel bad. Even Einstein had a therapist.
  40. 40. Third: Two main camps
  41. 41. Semantic idealists.
  42. 42. “It has never been spread out, yet,” said Mein Herr. “The farmers objected: they said it would cover the whole country, and shut out the sunlight! So we now use the country itself, as its own map, and I assure you it does nearly as well.” 3) Lewis Carroll’s Sylvie and Bruno Concluded (1893)
  43. 43. Chaotic nihilists.
  44. 44. Urban Dictionary
  45. 45. Chaotic nihilist Semantic idealist
  46. 46. Chaotic nihilist Semantic idealist
  47. 47. Fourth: We’re bad at data
  48. 48. Broken windows http://www.flickr.com/photos/shoes_on_wires/3348377521/sizes/l/
  49. 49. Roe V. Wade
  50. 50. Leaded gasoline http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevensnodgrass/4385045639/
  51. 51. Winter tires http://www.flickr.com/photos/highwaysagency/6256644401/sizes/l/
  52. 52. Ice cream and drowning http://www.flickr.com/photos/wtlphotos/1086968783
  53. 53. “At least one of my kids is a girl.”
  54. 54. What are the chances the other is a boy?
  55. 55. BB BG GB GG
  56. 56. GB GG BG 2 of 3 (66%) are boys.
  57. 57. “A subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence.” (AKA Bayes’ Theorem.)
  58. 58. “Anyone who values truth should stop worshipping reason.” (AKA the real world.)
  59. 59. We prefer false positives.
  60. 60. Wooly mammoth http://www.flickr.com/photos/pong/172438102/sizes/o/
  61. 61. Sun temple http://www.flickr.com/photos/30787002@N02/3298693694/sizes/l/
  62. 62. Polarizing through tone
  63. 63. Pew and political polarization
  64. 64. We’re bad at this Mistake correlation for causality Seek truthiness rather than fact Find patterns where they don’t exist Easily swayed by tone Side with our tribes Dig in and ignore new evidence
  65. 65. Athenian swimming pools
  66. 66. Kenya 28,400,000 America 204,000,000 Obama born in America: 87.8%
  67. 67. Fifth: Sloth
  68. 68. 24 months ago, the average person was still afraid of IT.
  69. 69. Today, the average person is terrified of being without it.
  70. 70. These are quickly becoming our prosthetic brains
  71. 71. Don’t worry, there’s more.
  72. 72. “Where’s a good sushi restaurant?” Nearby That friends like Within price range Novel Known Within diet restrictions No allergies Location Social graph Personal finances Personality Weight, activity Medical history
  73. 73. A good brain knows when to interrupt.
  74. 74. “Excuse me, but OMG best sushi joint!” Nearby That friends like Within price range Novel Known Within diet restrictions No allergies Location Social graph Personal finances Personality Weight, activity Medical history
  75. 75. “Excuse me, but OMG best sushi joint!” Visits, pays, & reviews. Ignores.
  76. 76. Sixth: What it’s really about
  77. 77. 525,000 state & local officers Under 25 officers per precinct 130 million incident reports 200,000 uses of force 31% keep computer files
  78. 78. Evidence.com
  79. 79. Hard drive
  80. 80. This is about analysis on a level playing field.
  81. 81. High Low RewardLow High Risk
  82. 82. A better prediction of the future means a lower risk at the present. This fundamentally changes the net present value of investments.
  83. 83. This is about dramatically changing economic fundamentals.
  84. 84. John Boyd can shoot you down.
  85. 85. The OODA loop.
  86. 86. This is about reducing organizational cycle time.
  87. 87. “The right information in the right place just changes your life.” - Stewart Brand “Design is the human capacity to plan and produce desired outcomes.” - Bruce Mau
  88. 88. This is about designing interruptions and producing outcomes.
  89. 89. Assets that don’t produce results are called liabilities.
  90. 90. The Big Data revolution is your chance to go beyond asset management.
  91. 91. Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
  92. 92. ARCHIMEDES HAD TAKEN BATHS BEFORE.
  93. 93. Once, a leader convinced others in the absence of data.
  94. 94. Now, a leader knows what questions to ask.
  95. 95. SOLVEfor INTERESTING OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL. Alistair Croll @acroll www.solveforinteresting.com alistair@solveforinteresting.com THANKS!
  96. 96. More: The long game
  97. 97. Live prototypes Planned for 1024x768 minimum resolution and 32 MB memory Last compiled in 1998: Works with Explorer 4.0 and Netscape 4.5
  98. 98. Every interface works both ways.
  99. 99. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×