June 2013 IRMAC slides

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Presentation for IRMAC in Toronto

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June 2013 IRMAC slides

  1. 1. SOLVEfor INTERESTING OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL. BIG DATA AND THE QUANTIFIED SOCIETY IRMAC 2013 ANNUAL LUNCH
  2. 2. Denver International Airport
  3. 3. “Managing information and data as a key enterprise asset.”
  4. 4. It’s not about data.
  5. 5. (This is called foreshadowing.)
  6. 6. First: What’s Big Data?
  7. 7. Breadcrumb trail http://www.flickr.com/photos/jenny-pics/3239638494/sizes/l/
  8. 8. Big Data: It’s people.
  9. 9. A technology shift.
  10. 10. The duck definition.
  11. 11. Large amounts of information Public and private Easily linked and collected Stored just because we can Analyzed by humans and machines In near real time Applied to business Usable by everyone Fed back into the system
  12. 12. Volume (the “big” part) Velocity (the “fast” part) Variety (the “anything” part) Pick any two
  13. 13. BIG * FAST * VARIED = K
  14. 14. None of this is new.
  15. 15. What’s new is that the constant dropped to nearly zero.
  16. 16. Big, fast, and varied got cheap.
  17. 17. Uses 75% less coal.
  18. 18. WTF?
  19. 19. Shouldn’t more efficiency mean less consumption?
  20. 20. more consumption. Efficiency means lower costs means new uses means more demand means
  21. 21. Big Data is about abundance.
  22. 22. (Abundance also means a billion bad data managers.)
  23. 23. Second: Good or bad?
  24. 24. Relational Statistical BIG
  25. 25. “All your friends are poor” is an awkward conversation.
  26. 26. A force for good. Ward off disease. Pinpoint disasters. Reveal corruption. Make cities smarter. Improve how we teach.
  27. 27. Big healthcare
  28. 28. Big philanthropy
  29. 29. Big commuting
  30. 30. A force for bad. Erode our privacy. Justify prejudices. Polarize groups. Leak private truths.
  31. 31. Big prejudice
  32. 32. Audience participation time!
  33. 33. How amusing.
  34. 34. “…nobody notices offers they do not get. And if these absent opportunities start following certain social patterns (for example not offering them to certain races, genders or sexual preferences) they can have a deep civil rights effect.” Anders Sandberg, Oxford University
  35. 35. Personalization looks a lot like prejudice.
  36. 36. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/ Big nanny state
  37. 37. Big radio
  38. 38. 0 15 30 2007 2012 Times a song in “heavy rotation” is played each day Every 4h Every 55m
  39. 39. Don’t feel bad. Don’t feel bad. Even Einstein had a therapist.
  40. 40. Third: Two main camps
  41. 41. Semantic idealists.
  42. 42. “It has never been spread out, yet,” said Mein Herr. “The farmers objected: they said it would cover the whole country, and shut out the sunlight! So we now use the country itself, as its own map, and I assure you it does nearly as well.” 3) Lewis Carroll’s Sylvie and Bruno Concluded (1893)
  43. 43. Chaotic nihilists.
  44. 44. Urban Dictionary
  45. 45. Chaotic nihilist Semantic idealist
  46. 46. Chaotic nihilist Semantic idealist
  47. 47. Fourth: We’re bad at data
  48. 48. Broken windows http://www.flickr.com/photos/shoes_on_wires/3348377521/sizes/l/
  49. 49. Roe V. Wade
  50. 50. Leaded gasoline http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevensnodgrass/4385045639/
  51. 51. Winter tires http://www.flickr.com/photos/highwaysagency/6256644401/sizes/l/
  52. 52. Ice cream and drowning http://www.flickr.com/photos/wtlphotos/1086968783
  53. 53. “At least one of my kids is a girl.”
  54. 54. What are the chances the other is a boy?
  55. 55. BB BG GB GG
  56. 56. GB GG BG 2 of 3 (66%) are boys.
  57. 57. “A subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence.” (AKA Bayes’ Theorem.)
  58. 58. “Anyone who values truth should stop worshipping reason.” (AKA the real world.)
  59. 59. We prefer false positives.
  60. 60. Wooly mammoth http://www.flickr.com/photos/pong/172438102/sizes/o/
  61. 61. Sun temple http://www.flickr.com/photos/30787002@N02/3298693694/sizes/l/
  62. 62. Polarizing through tone
  63. 63. Pew and political polarization
  64. 64. We’re bad at this Mistake correlation for causality Seek truthiness rather than fact Find patterns where they don’t exist Easily swayed by tone Side with our tribes Dig in and ignore new evidence
  65. 65. Athenian swimming pools
  66. 66. Kenya 28,400,000 America 204,000,000 Obama born in America: 87.8%
  67. 67. Fifth: Sloth
  68. 68. 24 months ago, the average person was still afraid of IT.
  69. 69. Today, the average person is terrified of being without it.
  70. 70. These are quickly becoming our prosthetic brains
  71. 71. Don’t worry, there’s more.
  72. 72. “Where’s a good sushi restaurant?” Nearby That friends like Within price range Novel Known Within diet restrictions No allergies Location Social graph Personal finances Personality Weight, activity Medical history
  73. 73. A good brain knows when to interrupt.
  74. 74. “Excuse me, but OMG best sushi joint!” Nearby That friends like Within price range Novel Known Within diet restrictions No allergies Location Social graph Personal finances Personality Weight, activity Medical history
  75. 75. “Excuse me, but OMG best sushi joint!” Visits, pays, & reviews. Ignores.
  76. 76. Sixth: What it’s really about
  77. 77. 525,000 state & local officers Under 25 officers per precinct 130 million incident reports 200,000 uses of force 31% keep computer files
  78. 78. Evidence.com
  79. 79. Hard drive
  80. 80. This is about analysis on a level playing field.
  81. 81. High Low RewardLow High Risk
  82. 82. A better prediction of the future means a lower risk at the present. This fundamentally changes the net present value of investments.
  83. 83. This is about dramatically changing economic fundamentals.
  84. 84. John Boyd can shoot you down.
  85. 85. The OODA loop.
  86. 86. This is about reducing organizational cycle time.
  87. 87. “The right information in the right place just changes your life.” - Stewart Brand “Design is the human capacity to plan and produce desired outcomes.” - Bruce Mau
  88. 88. This is about designing interruptions and producing outcomes.
  89. 89. Assets that don’t produce results are called liabilities.
  90. 90. The Big Data revolution is your chance to go beyond asset management.
  91. 91. Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
  92. 92. ARCHIMEDES HAD TAKEN BATHS BEFORE.
  93. 93. Once, a leader convinced others in the absence of data.
  94. 94. Now, a leader knows what questions to ask.
  95. 95. SOLVEfor INTERESTING OTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL. Alistair Croll @acroll www.solveforinteresting.com alistair@solveforinteresting.com THANKS!
  96. 96. More: The long game
  97. 97. Live prototypes Planned for 1024x768 minimum resolution and 32 MB memory Last compiled in 1998: Works with Explorer 4.0 and Netscape 4.5
  98. 98. Every interface works both ways.
  99. 99. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/

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